CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/03/25

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Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
03162013
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RIPPUB
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U
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11
Document Creation Date: 
September 20, 2019
Document Release Date: 
September 26, 2019
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Publication Date: 
March 25, 1955
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PDF icon CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULL[15722736].pdf448.74 KB
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rrver ifg7;77AApproved for Release: 2019/09/17 TOP SECRET /// .7; s7/3. CO3162013 #1/7 3.3(h)(2) 3.5(c) / C03162013 25 March 1955 Copy No. 88 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN 51 DOCUMENT NO NO CHANGE IN CLASS ig3 DECLASSIFIED CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C NEXT REVIEW DATE � 10 AUTH: HR 70-2 DATE: iMsitt 40 REVIEWER: ���� Office of Current Intelligence CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03162013 SUMMARY FAR EAST 1. Japan warns Nationalist China against activities in Ryukyus (page 3). 2. Danger of incident involving neutrals in South Korea seen in- creasing (page 4). SOUTHEAST ASIA 3. Bao Dal intervention in Vietnam sect problem urged by French (page 4). NEAR EAST - AFRICA 4. Turkey presses for visit of President Bayar to Iran (page 6)0 5. Egyptian minister warns Cairo against India's Asian policy (page 6)0 EASTERN EUROPE 6. Comment on 34-percent increase in defense allocation in Czech budget (page 7). WESTERN EUROPE 7. French government brings court action against Poujade tax- protest movement (page 8). 8. Comment on latest Austrian treaty developments (page 9). THE FORMOSA STRAITS (page 10) 25 Mar 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 2 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03162013 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03162013 'Igoe FAR EAST 1. Japan warns Nationalist China against activities in Ryukyus: The Japanese embassy in Taipei, appar- ently angered at Chinese Nationalist sponsorship of Ryukyuan independence activities, has warned the Chinese that the establishment of "liaison offices, etc." in the Ryukyus without consulting Japan "is something we cannot take," The embassy, emphasized that Japan retained sovereignty over the islands even though it agreed at San Francisco to place them under American trustee- ship. this exchange resulted from the Chinese government's statements before the Legislative Yuan concerning its efforts to promote Ryukyuan independence and "prevent Communist influence .from penetrating that area." Nationalist officials claimed that "Wash- ington must take Nationalist China into consideration" with respect to the Ryukyus. Comment: Japan has shown great sensi- tivity in the past over Chinese Nationalist propaganda favoring independence or a trusteeship for the Ryukyus. Tokyo may fear that the United States could eventually be won over to the idea if Japanese neutralism made American bases in Japan untenable. Taipei points out that the islands were a Chinese protectorate for more than 500 years before the Japanese occupation in 1871, and that the population is of Chinese ethnic origin. Taipei's present position is based on the Potsdam Declara- tion, which states that Japanese sovereignty is to be limited to the four main islands of Japan and such minor islands as the Allies-- including Nationalist China--may determine. 25 Mar 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 3 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03162013 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03162013 Ng. 2. Danger of incident involving neutrals in South Korea seen in- creasing: The action of the South Korean National Assembly on 23 March in calling on the government to oust the Czech and Polish members of the Neutral Nations Inspec- tion Teams has increased the danger of an incident, according to Ambassador Briggs. He notes that such an incident would involve the American troops which guard the five neutral teams now op- erating in the south. Briggs reports that the government may have sponsored the assembly's action as a means of obtaining a "legal" mandate to act unilaterally in ejecting the Communists from South Korea. He states that the government's impatience is steadily mounting and that its restraint of the past few months is now ended. Comment: The assembly's action, prob- ably government-inspired, may be the first step in carrying out Foreign Minister Pyun's threat of 19 March to try South Korea's "own legal means of throwing the Communists out." The intensified campaign of the South Korean government to abolish the teams, which has the additional aim of buttressing its demands for a military build-up, may make the Swiss and Swedes more reluctant to take positive action to eliminate the teams or reduce their personnel. They have pre- viously indicated their unwillingness to act under pressure. SOUTHEAST ASIA 3. Bao Dal intervention in Vietnam sect problem urged by French: French officials in Paris, including General Ely, contend that Bao Dal's immediate intervention in the dispute between Premier Diem and the sects 25 Mar 55 T LNTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 4 h Aoh irr Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03162013 Approved for Release:. 2019/09/17 C03162013 Is" is desirable in view of the "united front" which the sects have achieved. Bao Dal's intervention might take the form of his re- turning to Saigon within a few days, or summoning Diem and the sect leaders to Cannes, with a view to forming a "national union" government. In Saigon, Deputy Commissioner General Jean Daridan is taking the line that Diem should yield to the sects' demand for a reshuffle of his government. Daridan says that Le Van Vien, leader of the Binh Xuyen, is determined "to act" and cannot be bought off. General Jacquot, acting commander in chief, criticized Diem's policy toward the sects but doubted that an armed attack by the sects was likely. General Collins believes there is not much unity among the sects, and that Bao Dai's return to Vietnam would cut the ground from under Diem by encouraging new political ma- neuvering Comment: Bao Dai and the sects have been drawn closer together by their reluctance to see Diem emerge as the undisputed leader of South Vietnam. Diem, on the other hand, is unlikely to yield his position of leadership so long as he retains American support. He believes that with adequate secret funds he can buy off sect leaders and eventually cripple the sects militarily. To circumvent the deadline of 25 March set by the sects for a reshuffle of the government, Diem proposes to enter negotiations but to avoid any retreat. According to press reports, the sects on 24 March ordered a "general strike" and a blockade of Saigon starting Sunday. Earlier the French commander in South Vietnam had informed the American embassy that he would not tolerate such a blockade. 25 Mar 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 5 Approve7IforRele7s20719709/17 C03162013 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03162013 Lo' 1 WI 0E4%-A-tr.!1 NEAR EAST - AFRICA 4. Turkey presses for visit of President Bayar to Iran: The Foreign Ministry spokesman said that Bayar has wanted to visit Iran "for a long time" and that, since the Shah recently expressed the desire to see him in Tehran, it . would be advantageous for him to go in the near future. Comment: Turkey is anxious to round out the "northern tier" defense alignment with Iran as an impor- tant link. The Shah has already committed himself to the "northern tier" principle, but has proposed that joint general staff talks be held as a preliminary to Iran's decision to join the Turkish-Iraqi pact. Ankara, however, believes that Iran should be brought into the defense alignment before such conversations take place in order to prevent Tehran from using the resultant planning as a device to force increased American,rnilitary.aid. A visit by Bayar to Tehran at this time would offer an opportunity to press Iran for early adherence to the pact. 5. Egyptian minister warns Cairo against India's Asian policy: Egyptian minister of state Anwar Sadat, who is heading a "good-will" delegation to the Moslem countries of the Far East in preparation for the Afro-Asian confer- ence, informed Prime Minister Nasr that India's policy in Asia is incompatible with ours." 25 Mar 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page,6 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03162013 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C0312013 � He warned that "Communist China, with India's support, will endeavor to condemn America for the misfortunes of Asia." Sadat recommended that Nasr visit Pakistan before India, stating that it is "very important that I see you before you go to India or Indonesia." Comment: Sadat is one of the original members of the Revolutionary Command Council and has been labeled anti-Western in the past. If he can convince Nasr that Egypt's interests as a leader of the Moslem world may conflict with India's objectives at the conference, Cairo may adopt an independent role despite Prime Minister Nehru's overtures for Nasr's support at the conference. EASTERN EUROPE 6. Comment on 34-percent increase in defense allocation in Czech budget: The Czechoslovak budget for 1955, al- though providing for total expenditures slightly below the 1954 level, calls for a defense expenditure approximately 34 percent higher than last year's figure. According to the official announcement of 22 March, the 1955 defense expenditure represents 12.1 percent of the total budget, compared with 8.9 percent in 1954. This increase is consistent with the Orbit's public emphasis on the need for an increase in military power to counteract "threats from the West," but percentagewise is considerably higher than the 12-percent rises in absolute ex- penditures announced for 1955 in the USSR and Poland. A large portion of the Czech increase may be devoted to the procurement of new and improved military 25 Mar 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 7 Approve-dlo71417a-s-e-: -20;1/09/17 C03162013 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03162013 '4,100 equipment, as suggested by initial Czech receipt this year of Soviet IL-28 aircraft. Some of the increase, however, may re- flect a change in budgeting procedures, i.e. , some items used by the military which were formerly included within the national economy sector may have been transferred to the defense allo- cation. WESTERN EUROPE 7. French government brings court action against Poujade tax- _ protest movement: The French government on 22 March instructed the Seine court to issue a warrant and open an inquiry into the so-called "Poujade movement" protest- ng taxes 'me court .ction is to be taken under the "injury to the prestige of the nation" clause of the 1935 general tax code. The American embassy in Paris has been informed that the inquiry will aim at obtaining suf- ficient evidence to issue a search warrant covering Poujade's head- quarters and the residences of the movement's leaders. Labor unions are reported to have complained bitterly to the government about its failure to move against Poujade and his supporters. Comment: Premier Faure was forced to make concessions to the Poujade movement to avoid delaying action on the Paris agreements by the Council of the Republic. The Paris press was extremely critical of Poujade's antics in the National Assembly gallery during the budget debate on 19 March, and the present legal action is probably the beginning of a stronger government campaign against Poujade. During the assembly debate on Faure's request for decree powers, scheduled for 28 March, Poujade's supporters in the coalition will probably join the opposition in an attempt to bring down the premier. 25 Mar 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 8 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03162013 Approved for Release:. 2019/019/17 C0312013 *aro 8. Comment on latest Austrian treaty developments: Chancellor Raab will probably find it difficult to refuse the Soviet invitation of 24 March to visit Moscow to discuss the Austrian treaty question. Raab has already stated that he would go to Moscow if he thought it would result in progress toward a treaty. The Soviet invitation comes just four days after a radio speech by Raab in which he seemed to go a long way toward meeting Soviet requirements for Austrian neutrality as stated by Molotov at the Berlin conference in January 1954. The USSR has also agreed to Vienna's proposal that the Austrian treaty question be discussed separately from the German question at a conference of the four occupation powers and Austria. American officials in Vienna believe the Austrian government is "nervous and worried" by its recent dis- cussions with the USSR and would like to shift the responsibility for negotiations to the Western powers. Allied officials in Europe have expressed concern that the Vienna government is becoming increasingly recep- tive to the idea of some form of Austrian neutralization, which is opposed by the three Western occupation powers, in exchange for a treaty. The French Foreign Ministry told the American embassy in Paris that recently Austrian officials had implied that Vienna was discussing with Moscow the possibility of "complete neutrality, such as that of Switzerland." 25 Mar 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 9 ---- _� Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03162013 Approved for Release: 2016/09/17 C03162013 THE FORMOSA STRAITS Report of the IAC Current Intelligence Group for the Formosa Straits Problem This report is based on information received in Washington up to 1100 hours 24 March 1955. 1, Small-scale artillery fire was exchanged in the Quemoy area. No other ground activity was reported. Air action was negative due to weather. 2. The sighting of additional minor Chinese Communist naval vessels in the Min River estuary is confirmed A long-range naval re- inforcement of the Matsu area may have commenced, but is not yet of sufficient scale to indicate the imminence of hostilities. Part of the additional forces are identified as two LSrs, one gunboat and numerous smaller amphibious types. 3. Chinese Communist frogmen attempted reconnaissance on 17 March and 22 March of Wuchiu Island, midway between Matsu and Quemoy, and were driven off. These are the first such attempts on Wuchiu, the most lightly held (600 guerrillas) and most vulnerable of all Nationalist island groups. 4. Chinese Communist propaganda attention to Formosa has remained at a relatively low level during the past week (approx- imately six percent of Peiping home service broadcasts), but Pei- ping continues to reaffirm strongly its "solemn determination" to seize the island. Broadcasts to Formosa claim that Chinese Nation- alist morale is sinking and continue to appeal for defections. Pei- ping Radio has been exploiting the return from Hong Kong to the mainland on 15 March of former Nationalist General Wei Li-huang, who had been living in Hong Kong since 1949. Peiping has noted the rumored establishment in Taipei of a Sino-US "joint operations center" as further evidence of US efforts to "tighten its military occupation of Formosa and prepare for a new war" and has ascribed the return of the Aruba to "Washington's high-handedness." 25 Mar 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 10 Appr7ve-d�for�Rel-ei-se-: 2019/09/17 C03162013 SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03162013 Nese H U CHANGSHAJ" 28 116 HANKOW ' NANCHANG 120 HANG CHO 6H UHSIEN FOOCHOW 00 SHANGHAI HIAHSING nder onstruction , 41: MATSUS WUCHIU elftemmaireoteene� 4 PESVDORES Is K AOHSIU NG SOUTH CHINA COAST (incl. FORMOSA) 24 March 1:955 Available Airfield (jet) Available Airfield (conventional) Airfield Site p Nationalist-held Islands - 0 100 29� Rail (selected) Stetutehliles U,K) Kilometers Road (selected) 116 120 ocp c, CHOUSHAN IS. 0 rACHENS KEELUNG- FORMOSA 0/7 M310-2 ����11,11M 32 28 2 SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03162013