CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/02/20

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03174756
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: February 20, 1955

/iyeZ
��i
r - Approved for Release' 2019/09/17 C03174756F
�,/
3.3(h)(2)
11;
21#4/
�
//.��
20 February 1955
Copy No. 88
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DC'CUMENT NO "3 0
NO CHANGE IN CLASS tla
DECLASSIFIED
CLASS CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: so t o
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE O 8S/14-WV
Jet"
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TO RET
,00000.00,
rff*.0
ido#,"
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03174756
TOP Approved for for Release: 2019/09/17 C03174756
SUMMARY
SOVIET UNION
1. Comment on Soviet "disarmament proposals" (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Further indication of Chinese Communist logistical build-up in
Formosa area (page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Iranian prime minister resents Shah's political role (page 4).
WESTERN EUROPE
4. .Adenauer's altitude certain to increase bitterness of ratification
debate (page 5).
LATIN AMERICA
5. Communist coup allegedly scheduled for Guatemala
(page 5).
LATE ITEM
6. Comment on Faure's prospects as next French premier (page 6).
* * * *
20 Feb 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 2
n cv rr
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03174756
TOP SEC-RV'
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03174756
Noe
Noe
SOVIET UNION
1. Comment on Soviet "disarmament proposals":
The only new element in the Soviet
Foreign Ministry's statement of
18 February on disarmament is the pro-
posal to place a ceiling on armed forces and military budgets at
the levels of 1 January 1955. The previous Soviet proposal,
Vyshinsky's 30 September plan, stressed a reduction by "agreed
norms" in conventional armaments and military expenditures
and accepted the French-British date of 31 December 1953 as
the base level from which to measure the reduction in armaments
and expenditures.
This statement is issued one week before
the beginning of the talks in London by the UN Subcommittee on
Disarmament, which were arranged on the understanding that
they would be private and secret. This maneuver may foreshadow
further Soviet use of the press during the course of the conference.
Moscow may hope to use the meeting to
dramatize propaganda on German rearmament, American bases,
and allegations of American and NATO preparations for atomic
war. The Foreign Ministry statement plays on the danger of
atomic war for "the more densely populated parts of Europe, and
not only of Europe."
The appointment of Gromyko, a first
deputy foreign minister, to head the Soviet delegation to London
probably was partly designed to balance the designation of Ambas-
sador Lodge to head the American delegation.
FAR EAST
2. Further indication of Chinese Communist logistical build-up in
Formosa area:
Shipments of empty oil drums down the
Yangtze River to Shanghai and Nanking
in recent months have revealed a signif-
icant shift from civil to military consignees,
20 Feb 55
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 3
TVA /3 CP
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03174756
ernP QPC//rT
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03174756
'two
Noe
There have also been indicatiqns that
the national petroleum distributing company--which normally
receives these empty drums--has been in extremely short sup-
ply for upriver shipments.
Comment: The East China Military
District includes the Fukien coast opposite the Nationalist-held
offshore islands. This area has probably had a recent increased
military need for petroleum products. The East China Military
District could also be stockpiling drums for future use.
(Concurred in by ORR)
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
. Iranian prime minister resents Shah's political role:
Iranian prime minister Zahedi has said
he will resign unless the Shah continues
to trust him and agrees to a role of
"reigning instead of ruling,"
According to the
prime minister, the Shah "has led the country into a swamp of
confusion" during the last 12 years.
Comment: Zahedi's suggestion that the
Shah should reign but notiiire-5- reminiscent of former prime
minister Mossadeq's viewpoint, one which nearly cost the Shah
his throne. While this report may have been planted by Zahedi's
enemies to influence the Shah, there have been increasing signs
in recent weeks that the Shah would remove Zahedi on his return
to Tehran in early March.
With any succeeding prime minister, it
may be anticipated that the Shah will participate more actively in
the day-to-day operations of the government.
20 Feb 55
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 4
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03174756
TOP-SECRET
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03174756
Nape
Noe
WESTERN EUROPE
Adenauer's attitude certain to increase bitterness of ratification
debate:
American officials in Bonn believe the
Bundestag debate on the ratification of
the Paris accords will be made more
bitter by Chancellor Adenauer's refusal
to accept a Socialist resolution on reunification which has been
presented to the parliamentary foreign affairs committee. The
resolution calls for the West German government to take steps
toward German reunification through free elections. At Adenauer's
request, it was rejected by the Christian Democratic (CD'U) major-
ity on the committee because it did not give an all-German govern-
ment freedom of action in foreign affairs. The chancellor consid-
ers this necessary to his pro-Western orientation.
The Socialists are reported bitter at the
CDU action and Christian Democratic deputies are said to be dis-
appointed at the chancellor's refusal to make a gesture which they
believe would have cost him nothing. The Socialists are expected
to introduce a similar resolution during the ratification debate in
the Bundestag beginning on 24 February.
Comment: The chancellor, who has been
adamantly against any con-Fel-aims toward the Socialist foreign
policy position calling for a reunified, neutralized Germany, is
confident that ratification of the Paris accords can be won without
such concessions. Despite the increasing political tension, rati-
fication appears assured by a narrow margin.
LATIN AMERICA
5. Communist coup allegedly scheduled for Guatemak
20 Feb 55
A Communist coup in Guatemala is sched-
uled according to
Communist
revolutionary circles.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 5
TrIP VT
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03174756
TOP_SEeRET
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03174756
NostO
Noe
The plot allegedly is to be ca-ried out
by "a group of teachers" aided by "a strong group" of militant
Communists and pro-Communists in Mexico which includes
Mexican General Calvo Ramirez.
Comment: Guatemalan Communists
are not believed capable of staging a successful coup at the
present time, but some attempt may be made.
A clandestine Communist newssheet
counseled in December, however, against violence, suggest-
ing that Communist leaders were placing their hopes for a come-
back in long-term political action.
The estimated 200 Guatemalan Commu-
nists and pro-Communists in Mexico are prohibited from en-
gaging in political activity and are divided among themselves.
General Calvo, a reported Communist and now head of the army's
military justice section, has associated, however, with the
Guatemalan exiles, as have other Mexican Communists.
LATE ITEM
6. Comment on Faure's prospects as next French premier:
A Radical Socialist, Acting Foreign
Minister Edgar Faure, was picked on
19 February by President Coty as
premier-designate. Faure, who is an
economic and financial expert, will
probably gain important support from
the right--which was refused Pineau--
or the continuance of the moderate and successful economic pro-
gram which he initiated in February 1954. Most of the deputies
who supported Mendes-France will probably also rally to Faure.
In addition, he is more acceptable to the Popular Republicans who
broke with Mendes- France on European integration.
American officials in Paris believe that
Faure may follow a "soft" line toward the USSR if this should prove
20 Feb 55
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 6
TrID riDE�T
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03174756
rrnri caPriiir
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03174756
'two'
*orr
politically profitable. Hence, there is some doubt the he would
press immediately for Council of the Republic approval of the
Paris accords. Rightist opposition to a policy of autonomy for
Tunisia and Morocco will handicap Faure's probable effort to
carry on Mendes-France's North Africa policy. Faure would
be likely to continue the policy of economic and cultural co-
existence with North Vietnam.
20 Feb 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 7
r_rvnt.4
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03174756