CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1958/03/29

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03177787
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: January 27, 2020
• Document Release Date: January 30, 2020
• Publication Date: March 29, 1958

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29 MARCH 1958
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
USSR - JAEIC reports hitherto un-
discovered Soviet nuclear test at
Semipalatinsk on 13 March.
USSR - American ambassador
notes apprehensive Moscow re-
action to Khrushchev's assumption
of premiership.
USSR apparently carrying out an-
nounced troop reductions in East
Germany, Hungary.
II. ASIA-AFRICA
Indonesia - Sukarno asks Nasir
for enough weapons to equip
several battalions
� Djakarta iorces retain
initiative on Sumatra.
Saudi Arabia - Crown Prince
Faysal uncommunicative in
Interview with American ambas-
sador.
TOP SECRET
Egypt offers Yemen additional
military mission, which would
strengthen Badr's prospects of
succession.
Lebanese political atmosphere
becoming more tense; Chief of
Army Shihab emerging as pos-
sible rival to President Ciaamoun.
Israel gets squadron of French
Vautour jets.
Japan - Conservatives expected
to retain majority in Diet elec-
tions expected in May, but sub-
stantial Socialist gains could
permit rivals to upset Kishi.
III. THE WEST
UK - Liberal party by-election
victory strengthens impression
Labor will win next general
election.
Panama - High government
resignations threaten stability
of De la Guardia administration.
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
29 March 1958
DAILY BRIEF
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Soviet nuclear tests: The Joint Atomic Energy Intel-
ligence committee Iiiiate the following statement at 1530
EST, 28 March 1958:
The Atomic Energy Detection System has re-
ported evidence of a nuclear explosion in the USSR
at about 0100 hours GMT, 13 March 1958. Although
other areas of the USSR cannot be excluded, the
meteorological data coupled with the radiochemical
data indicates that the most likely location was in
the vicinity of Semipalatinsk.
USSR: Ambassador Thompson reports that reaction
in Moscow to Khrushchev's assumption of the premiership,
so far as it can be gauged, is one of surprise, disappoint-
ment, and apprehension. Official reaction has been re-
ceived thus far only from Poland and Yugoslavia. The
Polish party daily ironically points out that the high spot
of the Soviet leader's career came with his 1956 declara-
tion on "The Cult of Personality and Its Consequences."
Belgrade has taken a noncommittal position, receiving
thenews with "sympathy." The Supreme Soviet has re-
cessed over the week end; Gromyko's foreign policy speech
will apparently not come before Monday.
(Page 1)
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Soviet troop withdrawals: Soviet troop withdrawals
from East Germany and Hungary have been proceeding
according to the announced schedule and will be nearly
completed by the end of March. The withdrawals in East
Germany were preceded by a reorganization which will
lessen the impact on Soviet capabilities. There are in-
dications that the units withdrawn from Hungary have
been relocated nearby in the Carpathian Military District.
II. ASIA-AFRICA
Indonesia: President Sukarno
requesting
arms and equipment for several battalions in order to
"strengthen the noose around the rebels." EoTptian stocks
of military equipment are probably ac-i,_,-)ate to permit them
to meet Sukarno's request. Nasir previously assured
Sukarno that Egypt would be willing to provide "all the
assistance it can give." In Su-
matra, meanwhile, central government forces retain
the initiative against the dissidents.
Saudi Arabia: Crown Prince Faysal in his first inter-
view with the American ambassador since assuming new
powers was uncommunicative. Saying that-he had resumed
his duties "at the King's request," Faysal o:tserved that the
financial austerity program ordered by the King would be
carried out rigorously and that all the difficulties in the
area had arisen f2om the creation of the state of Israel,
Egypt - Yemen: Egypt has offered to send additional
military personnel to Yemen to assist in maintenance of
armored vehicles, artillery, and other weapons which
29 Mar 58
DAILY BRIEF ii
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714
Yemen has received from the Soviet bloc. Such assistance
is probably also intended to support Crown Prince Badr in
his plans to become the next imam. Although Badr is widely
opposed, Yemen's closer association with Egypt in the United
Arab States, and Saudi Arabia's probable efforts to avoid
further provocation of Nasir, appear to have considerably
reduced the prospects for queressful opposition to Badr.
(Page 5)
Lebanon: The political atmosphere in Lebanon is
becoming more tense. Army Chief General Shihab is
emerging as a possible opposition candidate for president.
His entrance into the political arena would weaken the will
of the security forces to maintain order on behalf of the
present government. (Page 6)
Israel- Egypt: The Israeli Air Force has recently been
augmentea by delivery of a squadron of 15 Vautour twin-jet
aircraft purchased from France. The exact type of aircraft
cannot immediately be determined; the 600-knot Vautour is
produced in three configurations: all-weather fighter,
ground attack fighter, and light bomber. There have been
indications that Israel hoped to acquire both all-weather
and jet light bomber types (of which it had none), as well
as the French Mystere IV-B jet day fighter. By comparison,
recent observation of Egyptian airfields in the Cairo area
detected 58 IL-28 jet light bombers.
Iapan: The governing Liberal-Democratic party prob-
ably will retain its Diet majority in the general election ex-
pected in May, but if Socialist gains are significant, Prime
Minister Kishi's authority would probably be weakened, and
he might eventually lose his position as head of the party
and the government. Kishi's rivals within his party would
be very likely to exploit such gains to remove him.
(Page 7)
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III. THE WEST
.13;1'itaLl: The Liberal party's victory in the Torrington
by-election highlights the anti-Conservative trend that has
reduced the Conservative share of the popular vote in 31 of
the 32 by-elections held since the 1955 general election.
This will tend to weaken the Macmillan government's posi-
tion at home and abroad by strengthening the impression
among many observes that it is likely to lose the next zen-
eral election to the Labor party.
(Page 8)
Panama: Political and personal differences within
Panama's ruling clique are beginning to pose a threat to
the stability of moderate President de la Guardia's govern-
ment. The pressure groups seeking to remove him from
office are likely to employ such anti-US tactics as cam-
paigning for larger annual payments for the canal.
(Page 9)
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DAILY BRIEF iv
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I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Reaction to Khrushchev Appointment
Ambassador Thompson, reporting early reaction,
says that on the one hand there is a feeling among the
Soviet people that their lives will again be subjected to
the whims of one man; on the other, a feeling of relief
from the indication that internal strife will be avoided.
On balance, however, the reaction, as far as it ban be
gauged, is one of surprise, disappointment, and appre-
hension.
According to Western press sources, most Polish
front pages carried pictures of Khrushchev, but the party
daily and the youth paper in their captions pointed out that
a high spot of the Soviet leader's career was his 1956 dec-
laration on "The Cult of Personality and its Consequences."
These same sources state that private opinion among Polish
Communists appeared mixed: most were resigned to a
wait-and-see attitude, but few could hide their fears that
the Soviet system might again degenerate into a personal
despotism.
Yugoslavia's initial reaction came at the Foreign
Ministry's weekly press conference on 28 March, at which
a Yugoslav spokesman stated that "the naming of Khrushchev
as prime minister of the Soviet Union has been received in
Yugoslavia with sympathy." Tito has sent "warm wishes"
to Khrushchev for the "further flourishing of your socialist
homeland...." Western press reports state, however, that
ordinary Yugoslays feel concerned about the latest Moscow
development.
The Supreme Soviet will not hear Gromyko's foreign
policy report until at least Monday or Tuesday. Saturday
has been set aside for the work of legislative committees--
a departure from usual Supreme Soviet procedures--and
Sunday will be a normal holiday.
CONFIDENTIAL
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1.4 %�,11. 1064
Withdrawal of Soviet Troops From East Germany
And Hungary
Soviet announcements that 41,000 troops from East
Germany and 17,000 from Hungary would be withdrawn
apparently are being carried out. Seven of the ten de-
parture ceremonies scheduled in East Germany between
27 February and 10 April have taken place so far and
sufficient departing trains have been noted to transport
the troops scheduled to leave. As of 25 March, the train
movement began to decrease, and withdrawals will prob-
ably be nearly completed by the end of March.
The USSR would still have 20 line divisions in East
Germany, strengthened by a reorganization in the past
year and by a new system of sending only trained Soviet
personnel to Germany. Western observers report that
the departing troops and equipment are below standard
in quality. Five Soviet division-level units will remain
in Hun :_;a..;, in contrast to two prior to the revolt in
October 1956.
All Soviet troops apparently have been evacuated from
�two towns' in eastern ' Hungary, and withdrawal ceremo-
nies have reportedly taken place in five other towns.
Western observers have stated that complete withdrawal
from all seven of these towns would account for most of
the announced 17,000 reduction in Soviet forces in Hungary.
the headquarters
of an army and two divisions formerly in Hungary have been
tentatively identified in the Carpathian Military District.
TOP SECRET
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IL ASIA-AFRICA
Situation in Indonesia
President Sukarno has personally requested through the
Egyptian Embassy in Djakarta that Egypt supply arms, am-
munition, parachutes, and other unidentified equipment for
at least five battalions and possibly more, according to an
intercepted Egyptian message. He explained that his purpose
in obtaining additional supplies was to "strengthen the noose
around the rebels." Sukarno requested that the Indonesian
Embassy in Cairo not be informed of his proposal, probably
an indication that he believes there are dissident sympathiz-
ers in the embassy who might delay or seriously obstruct the
deal.
There are rumors of increasing antigovernment senti-
ment in West Java, and of the possibility of a coup attempt
in Djakarta within the next two weeks. Such action could be
stimulated by Colonel Kawilarang, commander in West Java
until mid-1956 and recently military attache in Washington,
for whom a number of local officers retain sympathy. Ka-
wilara,ng is reported to have decided to join the dissident cause.
His present whereabouts is not known.
The army intelligence chief, Lt. Col. Sukendro, visited
South Celebes from 23 to 26 March, apparently to appraise
the situation there with a view to mounting an attack on Me-
na,do, dissident center in North Celebes. An Indonesian in-
telligence officer claims the central government intends to
attack Menado soon. According to an aide of President Su-
karno, however, such action will not be undertaken un
Central Sumatran rebellion is quelled.
TOP SECRET
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Saudi Crown Prince Interviewed by Ambassador Heath
Ambassador Heath's first interview with Crown Prince
Faysal since the latter assumed broad powers over Saudi
internal and external affairs was "unrewarding." Physical-
ly, the crown prince appeared far from well, although he
contended that all he lacks is stamina since there is nothing
organically wrong with him. He said he had resumed his
duties of prime minister and foreign minister "as a loyal
servant of the King" at Saud's "request."
Faysal avoided comment on the political situation in
the area except to assert that the difficulties in the region
had all arisen after the creation of Israel and that any "im-
provement" in American policy toward Israel would "un-
doubtedly be reflected in an improvement of the general
situation."
Faysal's only specific statement indicative of his own
plans was that the financial austerity program previously
ordered by King Saud would be carried out rigorously.
This statement might be taken to suggest that Saudi Arabia's
financial difficulties were indeed a primary factor behind
Faysal's resumption of political activity; while pressure
from Nasir was the occasion for the action.
z
_CONFIDENTIAL_
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A 'V A. Ire ILA 1464 A
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Egypt Offers Increased Assistance to Yemen
The Egyptian commander-in-chiefi Field Marshal
Amir, and Yemeni Crown Prince Badr have discussed the
dispatch of additional Egyptian military personnel to Yemen
to assist the Yemenis in maintenance and training on the
armored vehicles, artillery, and other military equipment
received from the Soviet bloc.
Amir ()tiered to provide as many
muatary teennicicui i_ ts a,b 'light be required. Nasir's close
cooperation with Badr, who was probably chiefly responsi-
ble for promoting Yemen's affiliation with the UAR, appears
intended not only to extend Egyptian influence in Yemen but
also to help Badr overcome internal opposition and succeed
his ailing father as Imam.
13adr and Nasir apparently desire to avoid a direct mil-
itary challenge to Britain, but to apply indirect pressure
through subversion and terror in Aden Protectorate The
British have again expressed to US officials their concern
over the increasing threat to their position in the whole of
Aden. Yemen's closer association with Egypt, and the prob-
able termination under Faysal of Saudi Arabian efforts to
overthrow the Imam and Badr, appear to have reduced con-
siderably the prospects for successful opposition to Badr.
-retl-sEERE-T
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NNW.
Lebanese Political Situation
Lebanese President Chamounts maneuvers to ensure
parliament's approval of a constitutional amendment allow-
ing him to run for re-election are meeting increasing public
opposition. A manifesto issued on 27 March by the Presi-
dent's opponents exhorted the populace to rise up and force
him to resign should he try to tamper with the constitution.
As a first move against Chamoun, his enemies plan to call
a general strike and lead a street demonstration which they
believe would lead to disorders necessitating army interven-
tion. The group is confident that army commander General
Shihab would refuse to back Chamoun in the face of public
disorders, thus forcing the President out of office.
Shihab is being propelled by events into the position of
a possible contender for the presidency. In the present
circumstances, it is uncertain.if thesecurity forces:wbuld;
be willing to maintain public order in the interests of the
present pro-Western government. The chiefs of the gendar-
merie and police believe their forces are capable of ensur-
ing security in Beirut, but not in the countryside.
Psychological warfare by both Chamoun and his oppo-
nents, including veiled threats and undercover activities,
are aggravating the already delicate situation.
TOP SECRET
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SECRET
Japanese Election Prospects
Japanese Prime Minister Kishi's thinking on general
elections is that action on essential legislation including
the budget will be completed by 20 April, after which the
lower house of the Diet should be dissolved and the new
house elected in May. Kishi may introduce a controversial
measure in the Diet, such as a bill limiting the activities
of labor, to provoke Socialist objections that would give him
an excuse for dissolving the Diet.
Kishi, who has given Japan sound leadership, is
handicapped by an inability to develop personal popularity,
and he is dependent on the achievements of his administra-
tion for voter appeal'. He has suggested to Ambassador
MacArthur that a favorable US attitude on pending prob-
lems, such as a concession to Japan on the Okinawa prob-
lem, would strengthen the conservatives.
Although the conservative Liberal-Democratic party
is expected to retain a majority in the Diet, any significant
Socialist gains probably would be exploited by Kishi's rivals
in the governing party in an attempt to weaken his position
and eventually remove him from the leadership of the party
and the government.
Kishi's rivals will have much greater prospects
of removing him if Socialist strength in the Diet increases
by more than ten seats
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...+011.../. .16
Noe
III. THE WEST
By-election Loss Damaging Blow to Macmillan Government
The Conservatives' loss of the Torrington, Devonshire,
parliamentary seat to the Liberals in the 27 March by-elec-
tion is the worst blow yet suffered by the Macmillan govern-
ment. While the Conservatives retain a comfortable par-
liamentary majority of 40, their percentage of the popular
vote has fallen in 31 out of the 32 by-elections held since
the 1t355 general election, including 18 since Macmillan be-
came prime minister in January 1957. This loss of a
formerly Liberal but now normally "safe" Conservative seat
will strengthen the iniprpssion among many observers that
the Labor party is bound to win the next general election,
which must be held within two years. This view will prob-
ably add to London's difficulties in dealing with such prob-
lems as Cyprus where disputants anticipate policy changes
under a Labor government.
The party's leader, Jo Grimond, in a pre-election
conversation with Ambassador Whitney, indicated that the
Liberals' steadily increasing popularity, gained mainly
at the expense of the Conservatives, could force the gov-
ernment to negotiate electoral alliances with the Liberals
in many more constituencies than it has in the past. Such
an arrangement might double the Liberals' present par-
liamentary holding of six seats out of 630. Torrington's
evidence of Liberal resurgence nevertheless may be ex-
pected to lead more ambitious party workers to press for
an un,compromising political offensive.
'-e4ATFLRENT-Fith
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TA. A.A.AAAL T
Noe' IWO
Opposition to Panamanian President Increases
Opposition to President Ernesto de la Guardia is in-
creasing among powerful pressure groups in Panama, which
appear ready to compose their own differences in an effort
to oust him. They will probably attempt to incite public op-
position to the president's cooperation with the United States
by criticizing his failure to press the recent campaign de-
manding 50 percent of the gross income of the Panama Canal.
Chief organizer of the disgruntled elite, which sees its
long control over lucrative politico-economic power threat-
ened by De la Guardia t moderate reforms, is probably for-
mer President Harinodio Arias, a publisher who wields ex-
tensive backstage power. One of his sons resigned this week
as finance minister and another as ambassador to London.
Arias has previously exploited the canal issue for political
purposes and can be expected to use it again; one of his pro-
teg6s in the Foreign Ministry originated the 50-percent cam-
paign. Nationalistic appeals and claims for larger canal
payments could easily arouse the many thousands of rest-
less, unemployed Panamanians who already tend to blame
their country's critical economic situation and their own
poverty on US control of the canal.
De la Guardia's retention of the presidency will prob-
ably depend on the continued support of the national guard,
Panama's only armed force. Corrupt guard leaders, how-
ever; are susceptible to opposition pressure because the
president's policies may endanger their own widespread
bu iness activities. (
-CONFIDEN-T1741-
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
29 March 1958
DAILY BRIEF
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Soviet nuclear tests: The Joint Atomic Energy Intel-
ligence committee issued the following statement at 1530
EST, 28 March 1958:
The Atomic Energy Detection System has re-
ported evidence of a nuclear explosion in the USSR
at about 0100 hours GMT, 13 March 1958. Although
other areas of the USSR cannot be excluded, the
meteorological data coupled with the radiochemical
data indicates that the most likely location was in
the vicinity of Semipalatinsk.
This report is based on the analysis of radio-
active debris collected in the vicinity of Japan on 15
March. The time of origin was established by radio-
chemical means from excellent samples of fresh
radioactive debris.
USSR: Ambassador Thompson reports that reaction
in Moscow to Khrushchev's assumption of the premiership,
so far as it can be gauged, is one of surprise, disappoint-
ment, and apprehension. Official reaction has been re-
ceived thus far only from Poland and Yugoslavia. The
Polish party daily ironically points out that the high spot
of the Soviet leader's career came with his 1956 declara-
tion on "The Cult of Personality and Its Consequences."
Belgrade has taken a noncommittal position, receiving
the news with "sympathy." The Supreme Soviet has re-
cessed over the week end; Gromyko's foreign policy speech
will apparently not come before Monday.
(Page 1)
Soviet troop withdrawals: Soviet troop withdrawals
from East Germany and Hungary have been proceeding
according to the announced schedule and will be nearly
completed by the end of March. The withdrawals in East
Germany were preceded by a reorganization which will
lessen the impact on Soviet capabilities. There are in-
dications that the units withdrawn from Hungary have
been relocated nPnrilx7 in the Carpathian Military District.
(Page 2)
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