CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1956/11/16

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03178385
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 25
• Document Creation Date: October 25, 2019
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2019
• Publication Date: November 16, 1956

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CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
3.3(h)(2)
16 November 1956
Copy No. 112
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
0 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: IS
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: HA7,212.1
DATERWoce4f REVIEWER:
si50e9
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
0
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CONTENTS
1. SELWYN LLOYD REITERATES BRITISH DETERMINATION TO
STAY IN EGYPT UNTIL RELIEVED BY EFFECTIVE UN FORCE
,) (page 3).
NJ
2. ISRAEL REMAINS MOBILIZED ON EASTERN BORDER
(page 4).
BULGANIN NOTES TO EDEN, MOLLET AND BEN-GURION
) (Page 5).
Ns34. AFGHANISTAN MOVES TO SEND VOLUNTEERS FOR EGYPT
(page 7).
NI5. SYRIAN INTELLIGENCE CHIEF REPORTED TAKING SOVIET
ORDERS (page 8).
\t. SOVIET BLOC URGED TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ARMS AND
HASTEN DELIVERIES TO SYRIA (page 9).
7. USSR RESUMES OIL AND GRAIN SHIPMENTS TO EGYPT
(page 10).
8. SOVIET SUBMARINE PATROL ACTIVITY
(page 11).
HUNGARIAN REGIME SPEEDS CONCESSIONS IN ORDER TO
OVERCOME WORKER RESISTANCE (page 12).
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1QAiJST1U ALARMED BY HUNGARIAN REFUGEE ACTIVITIES
(page 14).
11. TITO BERATES SOVIET LEADERSHIP
(page 15).
- 12. PUBLIC REACTION IN MOSCOW TO HUNGARIAN EVENTS
(page 16).
13. SIT UATrN TENSE IN RUMANIA AS PUBLIC HOSTILITY
MOUNT (page 17).
14. FRENCH GAULLIST LEADER TO WORK FOR PRO-SOVIET
ORIENTATION' (page 18).
- 15. NEW JAPANESE GOVERNMENT EXPECTED IN EARLY
DECEMBER (page 19).
116. SOVIET ECONOMIC MISSION TO BURMA
(page 20).
17. SINGAPORE ANDErMA L!rlA THREATENED WITH CRITIC:AL
FUEL SHORTAG (page 21).
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THE TAIWAN STRAIT
(page 22)
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L SELWYN LLOYD REITERATES BRITISH DETERMINATION TO
STAY IN EGYPT UNTIL RELIEVED BY EFFECTIVE UN FORCE
ritish fo Pign secretary Lloyd told Am-
assador Lodge in New York on 13 Novem-
er that Britain and France will not with-
raw their troops from the Suez Canal zone
ss ey ar rep aced by an "effective" UN force of approx-
imately equal strength. Lloyd stated, however, that Britain
and France were anxious to get out, lack the means of stay-
ing long, and never had intended to reoccupy the canal. zone.
The British have informed Secretary General Hammarskj old
that they agree to the withdrawal of one battalion of their
15,000-man force "at once'
Lloyd stated that the British must not lose
the "fruits of their action"--a Suez Canal settlement and a
Palestine solution--and indicated that he is quite willing to
risk Soviet intervention. He discounted the help Moscow might
be able to give Egypt and the other Arab states, and said that
even if there were 50,000 Soviet "volunteers" in Egypt, the
British force could take care of them.
Ambassador Lodge believes Lloyd's views
reflect Prime Minister Eden's, and comments that his atti-
tude appears reckless and full of contradiction.
Comment In London, several of Eden's parliamen-
tary supporters have predicted a wide-
open split in the Conservative Party if the government is
pressured into evacuating Egypt without prior assurances that
the UN police force will act to ensure freedom of navigation
of the canal.
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2. ISRAEL REMAINS MOBILIZED ON EASTERN BORDER
Israeli forces remain in an advanced
state of readiness for military opera-
tions against Syria and Jordan, by means
of the remobilizat*
7Ltraiisportation
l
Increasingly provocative raids
from Syria and Jordan are believed to
provide the motivation for the effort to
attain increased readiness. Other factors
may be growing Israeli apprehension that
the USSR is preparing to send military aid
and volunteers to Syria, and coneern over
a possible breakdown of the implementation
of UN decisions.
Terror and sabotage raids into Israel on
an unprecedented scale were launched from Syria and Jordan
Jordan and Syria, de-
spite the public posture of being ready for hostilities with Israel,
are unprepared, and Egypt is in no position to reopen the fighting.
Raids
into Israel continued on a large scale and
included the employment,
of Syrian and Jordanian army commandos in addition to
the usual clandestine nfedaveen" personnel.
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3. BULGANIN NOTES TO EDEN, MOLLET AND BEN-GURION
Bulganin's notes of 15 November to Eden,
Mollet and Ben- Gurion are aimed at sus-
taining the Soviet-Arab initiative in the
Middle East crisis, but are considerably
milder than his notes of 5 November in
that they do not carry implied threats of Soviet aggressive
action.
The notes, which are confident and self-
righteous in tone, question that the three powers are abiding
by the cease-fire agreement or that they intend to withdraw
their troops without delay. The Soviet premier asserts, on
the contrary, that "certain data" indicate that a military build-
up is in progress.
In its self-appointed role as guardian of
�Arab interests, the USSR proposes that the three powers com-
pensate Egypt for the losses it has suffered, including those
connected with the Suez Canal, and that an international com-
mission be created to determine the amount Egypt should re-
ceive.
Bulganin said that the USSR had no objec-
tion to the UN-sponsored international police force, since
Egypt had agreed "in principle" to receive it, but that the
withdrawal of British, French and Israeli forces would make
the UN force unnecessary. He said the international forces
should not be positioned in the canal zone, since this would
be in violation of the 1888 Convention and of Egyptian sover-
eignty. Instead, they should be stationed on both sides of the
demarcation line between Israel and Egypt as established by
the armistice agreements.
The note to Ben-Gurion, by far the harshest
of the three, strongly denounced Israeli military action against
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Egypt and made it clear that the USSR expects Israel to
withdraw its forces from Egyptian territory "without any
delay at all:'
In all three notes, Bulganin stated that
it was necessary, by joint efforts, to find a way of pre-
venting Israeli provocations against the Arab states in the
future. He may have in mind a proposal to redraw Israeli
boundaries along t
1947.
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4. AFGHANISTAN MOVES TO SEND VOLUNTEERS FOR EGYPT
The Afghan government is willing to allow
"volunteers" to go to Egypt,
the Pakistani government has said it has no ob-
jection to the "volunteers" transiting Pakistan but that the re-
quest must be made officially by Kabul through regular diplo-
matic channels.
Kabul's relations with the USSR have grown
increasingly close over the past year, and Afghanistan, as a
Moslem countr is strongly sympathetic to Egypt in the Suez
crisis.
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5. SYRIAN INTELLIGENCE CHIEF REPORTED TAKING
SOVIET ORDERS
Syrian intelligence chief Colonel Sarraj
now takes orders from the Soviet Union,
according to
arraj w s continuing fedayeen activities against
Israel despite specific instructions to the contrary from Egyp-
tian commander in chief Amer.
Comment
Sarraj's activities in-
dicate that he is not restrained by his own government or,
apparently, by orders from the Egyptians. Sarraj's political
sympathies--his violent anti-Westernism and his affiliation
with Syrian leftist parties--suggest that he may indeed be
consciously acting to further Soviet objectives, if he is not
directly under Soviet orders.
If Israel could be provoked into attacking
Syria or Jordan, a more plausible case would be established
for the entry of Soviet "volunteers" into Syria.
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6. SOVIET BLOC URGED TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ARMS
AND HASTEN DELIVERIES TO SYRIA
the Syrian-Soviet communique of 4 November,
suggest that no firm contracts for additional arms were nego-
tiated during President Quw'atli's visit.
most recent contracts with Poland and Czechoslovakia were
concluded in late September. Under existing contracts it is
known that antiaircraft guns, rocket launchers, trucks and
ammunition remain to be delivered.
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7. USSR RESUMES OIL AND GRAIN SHIPMENTS TO EGYPT
The first Soviet ships to deliver car-
goes to Egypt since the start of Anglo-
French military operations in Egypt
are scheduled to arrive in Alexandria
The last Soviet oil delivery was made
In the third week of October. The cargo ship loaded 6,000
tons of wheat at a Black Sea port. The arrival of this cargo
will bring deliveries to only 25,000 tons of the 4509000 tons
the USSR is obligated to deliver by May 1957.
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8. SOVIET SUBMARINE PATROL ACTIVrTY
In the past few days there have been sev-
eral submarine contacts by American or friendly forces in
such diverse locations as the western Atlantic, the Mediter-
ranean, and off the Black Sea coast of Turkey. These con-
tacts, although not yet evaluated, may reflect in part the
Soviet naval repponse to the alert status instituted in other
Soviet armed forces.
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9. HUNGARIAN REGIME SPEEDS CONCESSIONS IN ORDER
TO OVERCOME WORKER RESISTANCE
Since an apparent endorsement of his
"liberal" policies by,Soviet leaders who
visited Budapest on 12 November, Hun-
garian premier Janos Kadar has accel-
erated his attempts to win support from
the workers. Forced to cope with public
reaction to extensive deportations, Kadar
stated in a speech on 14 November that
"in concord with the competent Soviet
authorities," agreement had been reached that "no one must
be taken out of the countryc" The American legation in Buda-
pest believes that at least 16,000 Budapest residents have
already been deported to the USSR.
Kadar spoke in favor of a multiparty sys-
tem, composed of parties based on socialism, and admitted
that such elections might lead to the Communists being
"thoroughly beaten." He added, however, that such elec-
tions could not take place until the "workers' power" could
be guaranteed.
Kadar's address--delivered before a dele-
gation of workers who had presented a series of demands to
the regime--reflected both confusion and desperation. He
avoided any unqualified promises and rejected proposals for
Hungarian neutrality and for the immediate withdrawal of
Soviet troops, although he is pledged to negotiate for their
withdrawal when order is restored.
Kadar acknowledged worker demands that
ex-premier Imre Nagy be restored to his former post, but
indicated he had not been able to talk to Nagy, 'since he was
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now in a foreign legation--presumably the Yugoslay. Kadar
said that talks could be undertaken with Nagy to reach an
agreement with him when he left his extraterritorial ref�ge
-
Nagy apparently continues to have broad
popular support. For this reason the Soviets--still hunting
for a formula to establish a strong national Communist re-
gime in Hungary--might meet certain of Nagy's demands in
order to bring him into the government, even though they
are aware that strong efforts will have to be made to keep
him in line. Kadar, whose "liberal" program and dismissals
of Rakosi-type Communists have not gained popular support
or lessened passive resistance, continues to give little indi-
cation of being able to create and direct a successful national
policy
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10. AUSTRIA ALARMED BY HUNGARIAN
REFUGEE ACTIVITIES
Hungarian refugees are beginning to en-
gage in political activities in Austria,
are talking of forming an emigre gov-
ernment, and some are even attempting
o obtain arms and return to Hungary, according to information
wen Ambassador Thompson by the Austrian Foreign Minis-
ry. Ministry officials are deeply disturbed by reports that
Radio Free Europe representatives are in effect encouraging
hese activities.
The ministry believes that it is absolutely
essential to speed up the removal of refugees from Austria,
since the continued influx is "threatening chaos:' Thompson
has been advised that facilities for handling the refugees are
already overwhelmed and that in some sectors the border
authorities in Hungary are making little effort to impede the
flow.
Comment As of 11 November, 17,000 Hungarian
escapees were reported in Austria. Mos-
cow press and radio charges that Austria has not taken a neu-
tral position during the Hungarian rebellion have been directed
primarily at the alleged activities of expatriates. Vienna has
forcefully denied these allegations, but there is strong popular
sympathy for the rebels, and police and border controls have
been lax. Although many Western countries are offering to re-
ceive refugees, many refugees may be reluctant to leave Austria
as long as there is any hope that the situation in Hungary may be
reversed.
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(AEU" WEIN 11AL -sits
it TITO BERATES SOVIET LEADERSHIP
Yugoslavia's President Tito, in an
11 November speech to party activists
which was not made public until 15
November, placed the blame for devel-
opments in Hungary squarely on the
Soviet leaders. He claimed that his talks with Soviet lead-
ers in September showed that the Stalinist element in the
leadership had "forced its attitude" upon the other leaders
"to a certain degree:' He strongly condemned the Soviet
leaders for their failure to apply the principles adopted in
the joint Yugoslav-Soviet declarations of 1955 and 1956 to
their relations with all Socialist countries.
Tito denounced the Soviet leaders for
failing to go beyond a condemnation of the cult of Stalin to
a condemnation of the system which made Stalin possible.
This, he emphasized, was the chief cause of all Soviet diffi-
culties, and must be rectified. He said that advocates of
this system, which "ignores the strivings of the working
masses," remain in the leadership of other Communist par-
ties and are today "endeavoring to revive Stalinism and make
it prevail:'
He felt, however, that a victory was still
possible for "strong" elements in the Soviet Union who desire
the abandonment of Stalinist methods in favor of democrati-
zation and the "creation of new relations between the social-
ist states:'
Although Tito criticized the initial use of
Soviet forces in Hungary, he said their second intervention
was necessary because "chaos, civil war and counterrevolu-
tion, and even a third world war threatened."
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12, PUBLIC REACTION IN MOSCOW TO HUNGARIAN EVENTS
The Hungarian revolution and Soviet inter-
vention have aroused "unusually strong
interest among perceptive Soviet people,"
according to an informal survey conducted
y e American embassy in Moscow. Ambassador Bohlen be-
lieves, on the basis of the reports, that a particularly strong
impression has been made on Soviet students and young intelli-
gentsia and that a substantial portion of them condemn the
Soviet intervention. The embassy also noted widespread reali-
zation that the Soviet press was presenting a partial, one-sided
picture of Hungarian developments.
An embassy officer who recently attended
a lecture on international events at the Lenin Library in Moscow
reports that the speaker solicited and received written ques-
tions from the audience, all dealing with Hungary and Poland.
The speaker refused to discuss the subject,whereupon a young
man demanded to "hear the truth" about Hungary. When the
speaker asked, "Does anyone in the audience believe that the
Soviet press does not print the truth?" the entire audience rose,
and soon thereafter, when the speaker continued to avoid discus-
sing requested subjects, left the hall en masse.
Comment This is one of the strongest indications
that Soviet propaganda is failing to convince
the people in the freer intellectual atmosphere which has de-
veloped since Stalin's death.
Such attitudes as these among Soviet youth
may be one reason Khrushchev in his 8 November speech Ito
the Komsomol singled out the role of Hungarian young people
in the revolution and demanded that the Soviet youth organization
"devote more attention to correct indoctrination of young peo-
ple, correcting erroneous views and rebuffing unhealthy trends:"
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U. SITUATION TENSE IN RUMANIA AS PUBLIC
HOSTILITY MOUNTS
Heightened popular feeling against the
regime in Rumania has caused increased
"nervousness" among the leaders in
Bucharest. This has led to a "hysterical"
press campaign against the United States
and to the arrest of increasing numbers of
Bucharest students, according to the
American legation in Bucharest. The
population's hostility has been aggravated
by a serious shortage of food caused by a bad harvest and
hoarding.
Press reports from Vienna state that riots
and arrests of anti-Soviet demonstrators have been taking
place in Rumanian areas predominantly inhabited by ethnic
Hungarians.
Comment Student unrest, particularly in ethnic
Hungarian areas in Rumania, has been
tacitly confirmed by a number of recent official actions pre-
venting Western contact with students and local residents in
the Transylvanian area.
The Rumanian regime has maintained its
extensive security precautions and apparently has adopted a
policy of repression coupled with minor economic concessions
to handle the present tense situation.
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14. FRENCH GAULLIST LEADER TO WORK FOR PRO-
SOVIET ORIENTATION
Jacques Soustelle, Gaullist deputy
and former goyernor general of Algeria,
recently asserted that he would work
henceforth for a pro-Soviet orientation
of France, according to the American vice consul in Lyon.
Soustelle dismissed as alternative policies either continued
reliance on the United States and NATO, which he said has
been proved "worthless," or the creation of a politically
united Europe, which he prefers but considers unattainable
at this time.
Soustelle claimed that the construction
of American bases in North Africa was at the heart of French
difficulties there, since the bases had encouraged Arab na-
tionalism and provoked Soviet intervention in North African
affairs.
Comment Soustelle has long held that France de-
rives no benefit from the Atlantic alli-
ance and recently argued that a retreat from North Africa
would result in turning France toward neutralism if not
"national Communism' He has developed this theme in
numerous public speeches since he was relieved of his Al-
gerian post by Premier Mollet in February. His ideas have
reportedly gained him a considerable personal following, par-
ticularly on the right, and he is considered a serious contender
for the premiership.
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151 NEW JAPANESE GOVERNMENT EXPECTED IN
EARLY DECEMBER
Secretary General Shinsuke Kishi of
Japan's ruling Liberal-Democratic Party
has informed Ambassador Allison that a
new party president will be elected at a
LUI1 V VIILIL111 VAS I ..,cember, and that the successful candidate's
name will be presented to^ the Diet session on 10 December
for election as prime minister. He said the three principal
candidates are Executive Board chairman Ishii, Minister of
International Trade and Industry Ishibashi, and himself.
Kishi said that all three candidates are
united on foreign policy and that, regardless of who wins, the
United States can rely on the continued co-operation of Japan.
He pointed out, however, that the party feels Japan's security
treaty with the United States requires revision, and that the
release of remaining war criminals would be an important ele-
ment in improving American-Japanese relations.
Comment While Kishi is regarded as the leading candi-
date to succeed Hatoyama, the outcome is
still in doubt because of uncertainty over which way many of the
local party representatives may vote and because of the possi-
bility of last-minute deals.
It is probable that the next government will
continue the present trend toward a more independent position
in international affairs, and will seek to eliminate what the
Japanese regard as the "unequal" aspects of the Japanese-US
relationship.
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16. SOVIET ECONOMIC MISSION TO BURMA
A Soviet economic mission was sched-
uled to leave Moscow for Rangoon on
either 12 or 14 November. Headed by
P. A. Maletin, deputy chief of GUES--
Chief Directorate for Economic Rela-
ions�the mission is to consist of two groups. One, which
includes specialists in metallurgy, coal and agriculture, is
o confer with Burmese officials on the supply of equipment.
The other, which includes experts on health, education and
construction, is to negotiate on "grants sco e of construc-
tion and methods of implementation:'
Comment A Soviet economic mission to Burma
has been planned since the visit of Bul-
ganin and Khrushchev to Burma last December. The Maletin
mission will, probably arrange to carry out Soviet promises
to build a technological institute, hospital, sports center and
hotel. It can also be expected to offer additional capital equip-
ment and technical assistance against credits accumulated by
the export of Burmese rice in order to dispel Burma's dis-
appointment over its barter trade with Communist countries.
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17. SINGAPORE AND MALAYA THREATENED WITH
CRITICAL FUEL SHORTAGE
The refusal of Indonesian oil unions in
Sumatra to permit the shipment of oil
to Singapore and Malaya will bring trans-
portation and power plants to a halt in
those areas within ten days, according
onsul general in Singapore. Malayan chief
minister Rahman is considering an appeal to the Indonesian
government, and the Indonesian consul general in Singapore
has been asked to intervene with Djakarta.
Comment This action was almost certainly insti-
gated by PERBUM, the largest oil union
in Sumatra. PERBUM is an affiliate of SOBSI, the powerful
Communist-controlled Indonesian labor federation which has
promoted a great deal of the anti-British and anti-French ac-
tivities in Indonesia since the Anglo-French invasion of Egypt.
In the past, the Indonesian government has
been reluctant to take firm action against labor. This reluc-
tance is likely to be reinforced in the present instance by the
strong governmental disapproval of the Anglo-French opera-
tion in Egypt.
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etrniritkENTIAL� �ase
BIWEEKLY SUMMARY
(31 October-14 November 1956)
THE TAIWAN STRAIT
Report of the IAC Current Intelligence Group
for the Taiwan Strait Problem
1. There were no significant combat operations in
the area during the period.
2� Peiping's broadcasts over the past two weeks con-
tinued to refer to the theme of "peaceful liberation," but
contained no statement connecting the Taiwan situation with
developments in the Middle East or Hungary.
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TAIWAN STRAIT SITUATION
14 NOVEMBER 1956
CHINESE COMMUNIST AIRFIELD LEGEND:
DESIGNATIONS'
PRIMARY AIRFIELD
CONSIDERED MOST IMPORTANT IN
AREA WITH PREPARED RUNWAY
GENERALLY 5000 11E7 OR LONGER.
AUX5,;ftZ ItIVERROLVA5E,
OR FIELDS OF LESSER IMPORTANCE.
RUNWAYS GENERALLY LESS THAN
5000 FEET.
ACTIVE BASE FOR MILITARY & CIVILIAN AIR-
CRAFT. SOME BASES USED BY PISTON TYPES
MAY BE USABLE BY JETS
�
OPERATIONAL
INACTIVE BASES CAPABLE OF USE BY AIRCRAFT
�
SERVICEABLE
CURRENT STATUS UNDETERMINED
UNKNOWN
USABILITY
MIG-15
MIG-17
TU-4
IL-28
TU-2,
IL-10
LA-9 /11
LI-2
ETC:
UNKNOWN
* FIELDS NOT CONSIDERED .ZAPABLE
OF SUPPORTING SUSTAINED OPER-
ATIONS AT PRESENT.
120
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SEC�R-ErT
Approved for Release: 2019/10/24 C03178385