CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/11/19

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03178400
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2019
• Publication Date: November 19, 1957

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CURRENT
/ INTELLIGENCE
�004
/ BULLETIN
004
.13A
for Release: 2019/12/10 C03178400r
19 November 1957
Opy NO
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
1 1 G:..CLAS!7:3FIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
i3 S 3.5(c)
AUTHi 0-2
DATES
REVIEWER:
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP
3.3(h)(2)
RET
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Nirol **pi
)1--0 1. TUNIS
MENT
CONTENTS
ISSUE STRENGTHENS GAILLARD GOVERN-
page 3).
12- 2. WEST GERMANS AND POLES REACH INFORMAL ACCORD
ON TRADE (page 4).
M. 3. PRO-SOVIET SYRIAN DEFENSE MINISTER ASSUMES TWO
ADDITIONAL POSTS (page 5).
i9-16- 4. SITUATION IN LAOS
4.o
page 6).
5. INDIA AND PAKISTAN OBJECT TO NEW UN KASHMIR
RESOLUTION (page 7).
6ce 6. THE COLOMBIAN POLITICAL SITUATION
(page 8).
6-42 7. ARGENTINE DECREE CONVOKES GENERAL ELECTIONS
(page 9).
124, 8. ECONOMIC REORGANIZATION DECREED IN CHINA
(page 10).
19 Nov 57
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1. TUNISIAN ARMS ISSUE STRENGTHENS
GAILLARD GOVERNMENT
Comment on:
Premier Gaillard's prospects of sur-
viving the 19 November confidence
vote on economic policy have improved
because of widespread approval of the
government's stand against Washington and London over the
arms shipments to Tunisia. The rightists, however, are
still reluctant to support his proposed tax program. If he
does get National Assembly endorsement, the outcry from
practically all shades of non-Communist opinion over the
arms issue will probably force the government to take a
hard line in the Algerian policy debate next week. A spokes-
man for the Socialist party believes that the arms shipments
have set back for the indefinite future Socialist efforts to ob-
tain a more liberal solution to the Algerian question.
There is speculation that the strong re-
action of the Gaillard government to the shipments is to some
extent a bargaining tactic. Foreign Minister Pineau told Am-
bassador Houghton in Paris on 16 November that the healing
of the French-American break depended to a "decisive degree"
on the American attitude in the UN Algerian debate. Pineau
also played up the possible "disastrous" effect on French pub-
lic opinion if American arms are found in the possession of
the Algerian nationalists.
19 Nov 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 3
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J. J., ...a-a
minei
2. WEST GERMANS AND POLES REACH INFORMAL
ACCORD ON TRADE
A source in the West German Foreign
Ministry has informed the US embassy
that West Germany and Poland have
agreed informally to extend their cur-
rent trade agreement to the end of March 1958, and a
German delegation expects to arrive in Warsaw on 25 No-
vember for two weeks of trade talks to formalize the ex-
tension and negotiate details. In March, the source stated,
full-scale trade discussions will probably be held, with the
possibility that they may be conducted by the German For-
eign Ministry rather than the Agriculture Ministry as in the
past, A new type of government-to-government agreement
may then be concluded, which could provide the opportunity
for the establishment of a German trade mission in Warsaw,
perhaps with consular functions.
In the talks this month, Germany expects
to agree to a moratorium extending into 1959 on Polish pay-
ments of about $4,760,000 due next year.
Comment West Germany has been exploring ways
of developing closer contacts with Poland,
which is Bonn's most important trade partner in the bloc. In
the last trade agreement, concluded a year ago, a total volume
of $140,000,000 was agreed on for an 18-month period, an in-
crease of 20 percent over the previous trade agreement.
19 Nov 57
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%me Nerr
3. PRO-SOVIET SYRIAN DEFENSE MINISTER ASSUMES
TWO ADDITIONAL POSTS
Comment on:
The appointment of Syria's pro-Soviet
Defense Minister Khalid al-Azm to the
additional posts of minister of finance
and head of the Economic Development
Board puts him in charge of all of Syria's relations with the
USSR, except formal diplomatic activities, The finance
post has been held by Prime Minister Sabri al-Asali. The
Development Board is charged with supervision of the proj-
ects covered by the recent Syrian-Soviet economic agree-
ment.
By this move Azm, a bitter rival of left-
ist leader Akram Hawrani, appears to have strengthened
his position at the expense of both Hawrani and Prime Min-
ister Asali. Azm is clearly staking his future--especially
his objective of becoming President of Syria--on continued
close Syrian-Soviet relations.
19 Nov 57
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ettliff/DENTTNE
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Nftwo
4. SITUATION IN LAOS
Comment on:
The Pathet Lao formally turned over
the administration of the two disputed
northern provinces to the government
in a public ceremony in Vientiane on 18
November. Later the same day Prime
Minister Souvanna Phouma went before
a special session of the National Assem-
bly and requested investiture of a 16-man
cabinet headed by himself and including
two Pathet representatives. Assembly approval is almost cer-
tain.
Pathet chief Souphannouvong will be
minister of planning, reconstruction, and town planning, and
second-ranking Pathet leader Phoumi Vongvichit will be min-
ister of public instruction and arts. Their influence, however,
will extend beyond the scope of their substantive posts, and
they will be in a position to build resistance to any moves con-
sidered disadvantageous to the Pathets during the implementa-
tion of the settlement terms.
The Pathets have only symbolically sur-
rendered authority in the two provinces. The actual imposition
of government control and integration of 1,500 Pathets into the
army may take up to 60 days. The Pathets will doubtless seize
on loopholes in the accords in an effort to maintain a paramount
influence in the provinces and to integrate theirqnost effective
cadres into the army and civil administration. �The Pathets,
moreover, can be expected to launch a vigorous political cam-
paign immediately to ensure a good showing in the supplethen-
tary elections to be held in March to expand the National Assem-
bly frOm. 39 to 59 seats.
19 Nov 57
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5. INDIA AND PAKISTAN OBJECT TO NEW UN
KASHMIR RESOLUTION
Comment on:
Prime Minister Nehru and the Indian
government have found the new Kashmir
resolution presented to the UN Security
Council on 16 November to be "totally un-
acceptable," while the official reaction of
Pakistan is that it is "rather disappointing."
India objects primarily to permitting any
discussion of demilitarization or a pleb-
iscite until all Pakistani troops have left Pakistani-held Kash-
mir. Pakistan feels that the Security Council is merely try-
ing to keep the issue alive without taking it forward. It is op-
posed to reopening the question of whether India and Pakistan
have augmented their military potential in Kashmir since the
cease-fire went into effect.
The press of both nations may be expected
to follow the critical attitudes of their governments, and that
of India may be particularly outspoken.
There is a strong possibility that the USSR,
which has consistently supported India, would veto the reso-
lution if it comes to a vote. Should this or a revised resolu-
tion be passed without a veto, both India and Pakistan would
probably accept another visit by a UN representative, even
if they refused to accept the resolution itself.
19 Nov 57
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6. THE COLOMBIAN POLITICAL SITUATION
Comment ,on:
The political situation in Colombia is
deteriorating as a result of renewed
efforts by ex-dictator and right-wing
Conservative leader Laureano Gomez
to gain control over the Conservative
party.
Gomez apparently wants congressional elections, in
which he can demonstrate his faction's strength to precede
the presidential election.
The military junta which has ruled
Colombia since the ouster of General Rojas last May has
promised to turn over the government to civilian control
next August if the bitter partisanship between Colombia's
two traditional parties--Liberal and Conservative--can be
eliminated. The junta plans a presidential election after a
1 December plebiscite on an agreement providing for party
parity in government for the next 12 years.
The junta is not likely to postpone the
plebiscite, and it seems improbable that Gomez will jeop-
ardize his strong position within the Conservative party by
attempting a coup which would be opposed by Liberals, mod-
erate Conservatives, and the top military leaders. The po-
litical situation can be expected to continue volatile at least
into December, however, and the American embassy com-
ments that the deepening political discord imperils the re-
turn to civilian constitutional government.
19 Nov 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 8
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7� ARGENTINE DECREE CONVOKES GENERAL ELECTIONS
Comment on:
Argentine President Aramburu's
decree on 15 November calling for
general elections on 23 February
and the transfer of power to the
elected government on 1 May probably lessens the chances
that right-wing military elements may try to stage a coup
to postpone the popularly desired elections. The decree
calls for presidential electors to meet on 17 March and pro-
vides for continuation of the Saenz Pena electoral system un-
der which two thirds of the seats in the Chamber of Deputies
go to the leading party and the other third to the runner-up.
The leading parties at present are the
People's Radical Civic Union (UCRP) and the Intransigent
Radical Civic Union (UCRI) which won about a fourth and a
fifth, respectively, of the total votes in the July constituent
assembly elections in which over 50 political parties partic-
ipated under a system of proportional representation. No
notable coalition efforts have been made by the small parties,
although some future maneuvering in this direction is sug-
gested by their slowness to announce presidential candidates.
Only two minor candidates are thus far opposing the UCRI's
Arturo Frondizi. The progovernment UCRP is to choose its
candidate on 24 November. The neo-Peronista parties have
not announced their candidates, but a recent court decision
against banning Peronista propaganda will enable them to cam-
paign on a more frankly Peronista line.
19 Nov 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 9
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8. ECONOMIC REORGANIZATION DECREED IN CHINA
Comment on:
A series of new regulations has been
issued by the State Council in Peiping,
designed partially to decentralize some
branches of industry, commerce, and
finance, and to cut the overcrowded, ex-
pensive labor force in the nation's major
cities. Peiping has long felt a need for increasing local
initiative by allowing local administrators-a greater measure
of freedom, but has found it difficult to relinquish any sig-
nificant degree of control over the economy. Peiping says
that the present regulations, which appear carefully hedged,
were drafted with "extreme circumspection" and took a year
to complete.
The new regulations provide that local
governments in provinces, autonomous regions, and special
municipalities will assume control over a limited range of
industrial enterprises, mostly in light industry. The prin-
cipal heavy industry installations remain under the direct
control of the central government. These moves appear sim-
ilar to those now under way in most of the Eastern European
satellites', neither seem so far-reaching as the economic re-
organization that is being put into effect in the USSR.
Regulations issued on manpower and
wages are intended to make urban employment less attrac-
tive and to stimulate the movement of excess urban manpower
into rural areas, where it costs only about half as much in
terms of money to support an individual. Such a movement
has been under way for several months and is beginning to
take effect. The arrival of large numbers of workers in the
provinces cannot, however, be viewed with much enthusiasm
by the food-short peasants.
19 Nov 57
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