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October 25, 2019
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October 31, 2019
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March 2, 1956
PDF icon CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULL[15742107].pdf328.24 KB
A,pproved for Release: 2019/10/23 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN DOCUMENT NO. 5 NO CHANGE IN CLASS Cia 0 DECLASSIFIED CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C NEXT REVIEW DATE: I c) AUTH: HR 70-2 DATE- 114 NA, to REVIEWER: C03179149 // /� /.A C03179149 2 March 1956 Copy No. 103 OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 3.3(h)(2) 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179149 ,oppmw Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179149 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179149 I l.J1 La 1-4 CONTENTS 1. ISRAEL RENEWS ARMS DEMANDS (page 3). 2. THREAT TO ADENAUER717N-WUERTTEMBERG ELECTION OF 4 MARCH (page 4). 3. EAST GERMANS PLAN RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF SECURITY ZONE ON WESTERN BORDER page 5). 4. ARGENTINE GOVERNMENT UNEASY OVER LONARDPS RETURN page 6). 5. PEIPING� MAY BE PLANNING DIRECT APPROACH TO LAOTIAN GOVERNMENT ON PATHET LAO ISSUE (page 7). 6. NEW GREEK CABINET 2 Mar 56 (page 8). * * * * THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION (page 9) Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 2 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179149 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179149 , . KEI 1. ISRAEL RENEWS ARMS DEMANDS Ambassador Lawson believes that Israeli prime minister Ben-Gurion is nearing a policy decision as great ,as any confronting him since the es- tablishment of Israel. Ben-Gurion, on the verge of tears and in the most emphatic, forceful and table-pounding manner Ambassador Lawson had yet seen, demanded a "yes or no" answer on arms for Israel on 29 February. "It is a ques- tion of life or death. We are in mortal danger." Ben-Gurion rejected the suggestion that Israel should rely on the United Nations and the tripartite declaration. He said that no dimin- ishment of Israeli territory would be permitted "as long as we are alive." Lawson comments that though Ben-Gurion de- nied being under any pressure except the "pressure of events," the recent concentration of Egyptian and Syrian forces on Is- rael's borders put him under heavy and continuing pressure from the Israeli government, the army, his own party mem- bers and the opposition. the ar- my is now urging Ben-Gurion to allow it to strike and destroy the Egyptian forces before it is too late. The noted that the Israeli army had urged the same action at the time of the El Auja incident last November, but the prime minister had refused. Comment Israel almost certainly is making a re- assessment of its security situation in the light of Arab troop concentrations on its frontiers and Israel's failure to obtain arms. At the same time, however, these statements appear timed to bring maximum pressure on the United States to give Israel arms. Israeli leaders probably have not yet decided on a new policy departure, nor on the direction such a new departure would take, and may hope that further pressure will secure the arms they have requested. 2 Mar 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 3 C. 1, !I Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179149 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179149 1.1-4 1 *Mir *101 2. THREAT TO ADENAUER IN BADEN-WUERTTEMBERG ELECTION OF 4 MARCH Chancellor Adenauer faces a serious threat to his national position in the 4 March election in Baden-Wuerttemberg, where the other major parties have combined their campaign efforts against the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and reportedly have agreed to exclude the Christian Democrats from the next state gov- ernment. Unless the CDU can gain an absolute majority in the Baden-Wuerttemberg legislature, there is almost certain to be a change in the state's delegation to the federal Bundesrat. This would lose the chancellor his present majority in the upper house of parliament and place the Free Demperatic and Social Democratic parties in a position to hamstring Adenauer's national program. Ex- clusion of the CDU from the Baden-Wuerttemberg govern- ment would probably also defeat Adenauer's efforts to re- verse the parliamentary coup of 20 February in North Rhine- Westphalia, when his party was turned out of office by the Free Democrats. It might also encourage the overthrow of one or more CDU-dominated governments in other states. Informed political observers give the Christian Democrats little chance of gaining 50 percent of the seats in the Baden-Wuerttemberg legislature against the other parties which now form a coalition state govern- ment with them. In the 1952 state election the CDU polled 36 percent of the vote, and reached 52,4 percent only in the Adenauer landslide of 1953. 2 Mar 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 4 SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179149 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179149 ilk I Ur I 3. EAST GERMANS PLAN RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF SECURITY ZONE ON WESTERN BORDER District secretaries of the Social- ist Unity (Communist) Party from areas bordering on West Germany were to meet in Berlin on 27 Febru- ary to discuss special measures to bpdApplied on the frontier between East and West Germany, these measures would include the enforcement of the five-kilo- meter security zone on the Western frontier, new control measures, and intensification of existing ones. Comment East Germany's border restrictions would be tightened on 1 May. Such moves would be in- tended to curtail the large flow of military-age refugees to West Germany before recruiting for the East German armed forces is intensified this spring. The five-kilometer security zone on the West German border, originally established in 1952 to stem the substantial refugee flow, was opened to almost un- restricted access in June 1954 as part of East Germany's program of improving relations with West Germany. Dur- ing the period of strict enforcement of the security zone from 1952 to 1954, only an estimated 4 percent of the refu- gees leaving East Germany crossed the West German frontier, the rest departing through Berlin. On the basis of this ex- perience, the East German authorities would probably con- sider it necessary also to restrict movements into West Berlin. Since the relaxation of controls in 1954, there has been a sub- stantial increase in refugees, with about 50 percent of the refugees crossing directly into West Germany. 2 Mar 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 5 r, Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179149 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179149 LAJ11/FILJEAVI11-IL /110 4. ARGENTINE GOVERNMENT UNEASY OVER LONARDI'S RETURN The American embassy in Buenos Aires reports that a new "atmos- phere of uneasiness" has been build- ing up there in the past few days. This may be related to the imminent return to Buenos Aires of former president onar and the reported arrest of General Leon Bengoa. General Lonardi is scheduled to ar- rive in Buenos Aires on 2 March. there are plans for a welcoming demonstration by all opposition elements, including the Communists. Ambassador Nufer comments that a large demonstration could have "wide repercussions." F713engoa declared he would not accept any post with the government because he was in complete disagreement with its basic political, economic, and military policies. Ben- goa is at present reported to be detained in the War Minis- try. Comment Both Lonardi and Bengoa believe that the government should follow a more conciliatory line toward the Peronistas. Lonardi still re- tains a considerable following as a revolutionary leader and a former president.' He was ousted and replaced by the pres- ent Aramburu administration on 13 November. Bengoa, who is politically ambitious, re- cently defied an order assigning him to the Inter-American Defense Board in Washington. 2 Mar 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 6 Cf-"Nr1D17NTIA 1. Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179149 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179149 ffl'EefklE� 5. PEIPING MAY BE PLANNING DIRECT APPROACH TO LAOTIAN GOVERNMENT ON PATHET LAO ISSUE The action of the Chinese Commu- nist press in expressing approval of policies proposed by Laotian pre- mier Katay may be a trial balloon in aii�empt by Peiping to open direct conversations with Laos, according to Ambassador Yost in Vientiane. The Chinese Communists would probably offer a "settlement" of the Pathet Lao issue, presumably in exchange for the elimination or reduction of American influence in Laos. The ambassador notes that Radio Hanoi has continued to take a "hard" line on Laos, and believes this may indicate a difference of opinion between the Chi- nese Communists and the Viet Minh. Such a difference may have been the cause of the Pathets' long delay in re- plying to the International Control Commission's resolu- tion of 7 January calling for restoration of royal govern- ment authority in northern Laos. Comment The Chinese Communists may be pre- paring an approach to the Laos problem in which they would offer to mediate between Hanoi and Vientiane and at the same time promote Laotian neutralism. In seeking a vote of confidence for a new cabinet, Katay on 20 February announced that government policies included respect for the "five principles of peaceful coexistence." Although that cabinet did not win the confi- dence vote, a reshuffled one with Katay as premier is likely to be accepted. 2 Mar 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 7 C ry T1 1"" '7' Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179149 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179149 6. NEW GREEK CABINET Comment on: The new Greek cabinet sworn in with Prime Minister Karamanlis on 29 February represents merely a reshuffling of Karamanlis' last government. It does not appear ca- pable of carrying out the program of social and economic reform Karaman- lis says he intends to initiate. Some of the members may resist any at- tempts at reform. Minister Without Portfolio Gregory Kassimatis, whom Karamanlis recruited from the Liberal Party to broaden the base of his National Radical Union, reportedly has told the prime minister the "new team" of- fers the Greek people no hope for a change. Kassimatis also has been quoted as saying the new government cannot last long and is doomed to certain failure. Kassimatis is also reported to have complained to Karamanlis that his choice for the top economic ministry represented interests opposed to reform. The new minister of merchant marine has long been associated with Greece's most powerful indus- trial figure, Bodossakis. Bodossakis recently asserted that "Karamanlis can- not save himself from my efforts to destroy him." 2 Mar 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 8 SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179149 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179149 Aft I Cir Jt&-i-cc, I THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION (Information as of 1700, 1 March) Egyptian and Tsraeli troops are exchanging fire in the Gaza strip. Syrian prime minister Ghazzi, in reply to the Iraqi offer of military aid in the event of an Israeli attack, told the Iraqi minister that Syria felt that the recent Israeli moves were primarily intended to be a war of nerves against Syria. Ghazzi reportedly said that the United States had seized on the rumors of war to press for implementation of the Johnston plan. He had, however, told the US that Syria was not prepared to accept the plan. Ghazzi made no mention of accepting the Iraqi offer. on 5 February there were about 50 MIG-15 aircraft under heavy guard at Almaza airfield near Cairo. On the same day 18 IL-28 jet bombers were reported to be at Cairo West air base. Six of these bombers were being used for training and Soviet instructors were training Egyptian pilots in groups of 20. The bombers al- legedly were to be allotted to two squadrons which would be sta- tioned in the canal zone. only 37 MIG-15 fighters and 16 IL-28 bombers. On the basis of available evidence, it is estimated that 70 to 80 MIG-15's and between 30 and 45 IL-28's have been deliv- ered to Egypt and that these all arrived soon alter the arms de- liveries began in October 1955. Egyptian premier Nasr, King Saud of Saudi Arabia, and Syrian president Quwatli reportedly will meet at Luxor, Egypt, this week end. There is no confirmation of this report or specific indications of the nature of the reported talks other than a previous report that Quwatli was going soon to Aswan for a rest. Prince Mishal, Saudi Arabian minister of defense, is already in Cairo. 2 Mar 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 9 pc-%r) n -r Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179149