CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1956/03/04

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03179151
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: October 25, 2019
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2019
• Publication Date: March 4, 1956

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TOP SECRET
CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. 3 t
NO CHANGE IN CLASS IS
El DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: 2-0 I 0
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: )4 7;k16 nEvwwen-.
4 March 1956
Copy No.
103
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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CONTENTS
1. POSSIBLE COURSE OF ISRAELI POLICY ASSESSED
(page 3).
2. ALGERIAN NATIONALISTS WILL PROBABLY NOT AGREE
TO CEASE-FIRE (page 4).
3. MOROCCAN-FRENCH DECLARATION SUSPENDS PROTEC-
TORATE TREATY (page 5).
/4 DANES WILLING TO CONSTRUCT MERCHANT SHIP FOR
THE USSR (page 6).
5. BRITISH PLAN TO RESTRITSCOE OF BULGANIN-
KHRUSHCHEV ITINERARY
page 7).
6. INDONESIA PLANS TO ESTABLISH EXILE GOVERNMENT
FOR WEST IRIAN (page 8).
7. SOVIET AVIATION MISSION ARRIVES IN AFGHANISTAN
(page 9).
4 Mar 56
* * * *
THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(page 10)
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;;E 147
1. POSSIBLE COURSE OF ISRAELI POLICY ASSESSED
Ambassador Lawson in Tel Aviv
predicts that in formulating a new
policy, the Israeli governMent at a
minimum will place the country's
economy on an emergency basis with partial mobiliza-
tion of reservists and, at a maximum, stage an offen-
sive against Egyptian forces with no more pretext than
a frontier incident
Even the minimum program. in the
ambassador's view, would create an atmosphere which
would almost compel the Israeli government to adopt a
militant policy toward specific Arab-Israeli issues, such
as Jordan water diversion, cross-border firing, and
transit rights through the Gulf of Aqaba.
The embassy does not exclude the pos-
sibility that Israel may approach the USSR in regard to
obtaining arms, although many Israeli leaders believe
such a move would be abortive
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2 ALGERIAN NATIONALISTS WILL PROBABLY NOT
AGREE TO CEASE-FIRE
The Algerian nationalists are not likely
to lay down their arms in response to
French premier Molletis radio appeal.
Their goal is independence,
they have been winning in their fight against France, and they
will not agree to a cease-fire in return for promises.
Implementation of the plan recommended
by Minister Residing in Algeria Robert Lacoste--long-term
economic and social projects in conjunction with an all-out
military effort--would require a tremendous expenditure by
France over an extended period, foresees
a long period of extreme tension and bloodshed.
Comment A further upsurge of nationalist violence
in Algeria is anticipated during March.
4 Mar 56
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3. MOROCCAN-FRENCH DECLARATION SUSPENDS
PROTECTORATE TREATY
Comment on:
The Moroccan-French declaration of
1 March suspending the 1912 protec-
torate treaty, rather than abrogating
it as the Moroccans had demanded,
appears to be a compromise to enable both governments
to continue negotiations. According to a French Foreign
Ministry spokesman, both the Moroccans and the French
are satisfied with the vaguely worded protocol annexed to
the declaration. This reserves some powers to the resi-
dent general--henceforth to be known as the high commis-
sioner--and transfers other functions to the Moroccans,
notably responsibility for internal order.
The French spokesman, while "rela-
tively pleased" with the attitude of Moroccan negotiators,
fears that further deterioration in Algeria might upset the
agreement.
Moroccan sultan Mohamed ben Youssef,
who expects to return to Morocco within a few days, will
probably be pressed by the French to call for an end to the
tribal rebellion in the Rif. He has been reluctant to test
his influence among the rebels and may attempt to avoid
making an open appeal to them until the groundwork can be
laid for a demonstration of rebel loyalty to him.
4 Mar 56
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4, DANES WILLING TO CONSTRUCT MERCHANT SHIP
FOR THE USSR
In an aide mernoire delivered to the
American ambassador in Copenhagen
one hour after Prime Minister Hansen
departed for Moscow on 2 March, the
Danish Foreign Ministry stated that Denmark would agree
to construct a "sizable modern merchant vessel" for the
USSR if necessary to obtain a formal trade agreement. The
aide memoire added that if obliged to make a quick decision,
Hansen would utilize an escape clause in the COCOM regu-
lations which normally require prior consultation with other
COCOM members on such commitments.
Comment The Danish government had previously
indicated that negotiations for a formal
trade agreement with the USSR would not come up during
Hansen's visit.
The USSR terminated formal trade rela-
tions with Denmark in mid-1954 because Denmark refused
to construct tankers for the USSR. Never an enthusiastic
supporter of COCOM, the Danish government is subject to
strong domestic pressure to expand trade relations with the
USSR, particularly in view of the difficulties Denmark is
having in marketing its farm products in Western Europe.
Conclusion of such a ship contract by the
Danes would have repercussions among other shipbuilding
members of COCOM, (Concurred in by .ORR)
4 Mar 56
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5_ BRITISH PLAN TO RESTRICT SCOPE OF BULGANIN-
KHRUSHCHEV ITINERARY
The British government now plans to
keep Bulganin and Khrushchev in the
London area during all nine days of
their visit to Britain the latter
half of April, The gov-
ernment wishes to avoid giving the impression of a tri-
umphal tour of the country, including centers of "leftist"
influence, such ajasgow, where the Soviet leaders
might have tftrportunity to "sound off" before sympa-
thetic demonstrators. Earlier plans had allotted only four
days to London
The British hope that Khrushchev will
not insist on an extensive itinerary. The minister of the
Yugoslav embassy in London was told by a Soviet colleague,
however, that Moscow was "not pleased" by the revised
program suggested by Britain.
Comment In recent weeks, the Foreign Office
has appeared increasingly nervous about
the visit particularly in antipipatign;ptacttlerso reper-
cussions in the United States. Public opinion's prevailing
attitude seems to be: "Let them see Britain--we've plenty
to show them"
4 Mar 56
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6. INDONESIA PLANS TO ESTABLISH EXILE GOVERNMENT
FOR WEST IRIAN
Indonesia wants to set up a provincial
government for West Irian (Nether-
lands New Guinea) to be located on a
nearby island,
sound out UN circles on
their reaction to such an undertaking and its impact on the
West Irian question in the United Nations.
Comment Although the Harahap government,
has
now, resigned, some such action on West Irian may be ex-
pected to be taken by the next cabinet. Indonesia's new par-
liament, which will be installed on 26 March, will include
three appointed deputies to represent West Irian, and pre-
sumably they will be backstopped by some form of "provin-
cial authority in exile."
Increased emphasis on nationalism
appears to have become the keynote of Indonesian politics,
particularly since the December elections. The establish-
ment of a West Irian government would dramatize Indonesia's
claim to the area.
4 Mar 56
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CONFIDENTIAL -A
7. SOVIET AVIATION MISSION ARRIVES IN AFGHANISTAN
Comment on:
The arrival in Afghanistan on 29 Feb-
ruary of a Soviet aviation mission
headed by General N. S. Zakharov--
first deputy chief of the Chief Direc-
torate of the Civil Aviation Fleet (AEROFLOT)--could be
the beginning of a Soviet effort to freeze out Western in-
terests in Afghanistan internal aviation. It also gives sub-
stance to reports that Moscow plans to construct airports
and supply aircraft under the Soviet $100,000,000 credit
agreement reached last January.
Initial Afghan press reports stated that
the purpose of the Soviet air mission was to discuss the
"establishment of air service between Afghanistan and the
USSR." In view of the fact, however, that AEROFLOT
service between the USSR and Afghanistan is already op-
erative on a fortnightly and charter basis, Ambassador
Ward believes the mission's presence in Kabul is clear evi-
dence of Soviet pressure to move into the Afghan aviation
program.
The Soviet news agency TASS has an-
nounced the signing in Kabul on 2 March of a technical as-
sistance agreement with Afghanistan which included, among
other projects, the construction of an airfield at Baghlan
and the reconstruction of the airfield at Kabul. (Concurred
in by ORR).
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THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(Information as of 1700, 4 March)
The fact that Israel has asked for an
investigation by a UN truce team of the clash between Israeli
police and Syrian forces on 4 March suggests that Israel does
not intend to use this incident as a starting point for large-
scale hostilities. Shooting incidents have occurred several
times in the last two weeks near Lake Tiberias, however, and
a series of such clashes has in the past been followed by Israeli
"retaliatory" action.
On 29 February. the French
asked to intervene
with Syrian prime minister Ghazzi and point out to him "the
danger which, in the present circumstances, even minimal pro-
vocations by Syrian elements at the Israeli border may present,"
�
Syria will receive by the end of April
two training MIG's, 60 tanks, 30 heavy antiaircraft guns and 18
units of a weapon which could not be identified
'the nextagreement includes 36 MIG's
and 38 howitzers," and that experts would probably go to Syria
and Syrian trainees go to Czechoslovakia. Such an arrangement
would be similar to the Egyptian-Czech deal.
in the Suez canal zone
Egypt has stationed 50 MIG's at El Arish, the advance
Egyptian headquarters in the Sinai peninsula near the Israeli
frontier. This is the first report that Egypt has moved MIG's to
a forward base.
the logistic and
morale problems of the Egyptian troops in Sinai are severe.
Egyptian units may be returned from Sinai
to the canal area after the departure of British troops from the
vicinity of Ismailia, the main point of transit across the canal.
4 Mar 56
Current Intelligence Bulletin
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2 Ur LUiL
Israeli foreign minister Sharett believes
the dismissal of General Glubb from command of Jordan's Arab
Legion must be considered part of Egyptian prime minister
Nasr's "encirclement" of Israel.
Nasr was on the march and operates through
conquest by penetration. The Israeli foreign minister also said
he believed the Arab Legion might lose some of its effectiveness,
although this might be a slow process. He feared development
of a corresponding lack of responsibility and discipline which
would intensify Israel's border security problems.
despite Iraq's political gestures of support to Syria
and other Arab states, the Iraqis plan to support only Jordan in
ra SP of war with Israel
4 Mar 56
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