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October 25, 2019
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October 31, 2019
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November 1, 1956
PDF icon CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULL[15742026].pdf627.39 KB
Approved forr Release: 2019/10/23 CO3179160 r11421/3//20711, 7.A 1" 7/ Od� /#4 /4 (//' 'CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN 1 November Copy No.i CIAPNCIE CLASS. C4.0 0 DECt_kSSTkED CL.NSS. CIAANGED -TO: TS S C 64E0 fekitENN DME: ---- fetStki: 70-2 REVIEWEB: 3.5(c) / 1956 .1 // 4 / / / 11� / / / / / DKr OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY II rwrzer,,,A, Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179160 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179160 orik Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179160 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179160 CONTENTS 1. HOSTILITIES IN EGYPT 2. THE SITUATION IN HUNGARY (page 6). (page 3). 3. SOVIET STATEMENT CONDEMNS WESTERN AGGRESSION AGAINST EGYPT (page 9). 40 INDIAN REACTION TO SUEZ DEVELOPMENTS (page 10). 5. LIBERALIZATION TREND TO CONTINUE IN SOVIET POLICY TOWARD EASTERN EUROPE (page 11). 6. PEIPING TAKING CONCILIATORY LINE IN BURMA BORDER TALKS (page 12). 7. SOUTH KOREA STEPS UP PROPAGANDA AGAINST NORTH KOREA (page 14). 1 Nov 56 THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION (page 15) THE TAIWAN STRAIT (page 17) Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 2 ,rvai-ipi�gumnrir Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179160 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 603179160 �..,r1 Noe 1. HOSTILITIES IN EGYPT (information as of 2400, 31 October) A major battle is in progress in the Sinai Peninsula between the main Egyptian and Israeli forces on the ..oad to Ismailia west of Abu Aweigla. very heavy ground fight- ing and tactical air activity. According to an Israeli military spokes- man at noon on 31 October, Israeli troops have advanced through central Sinai to the Jebel Hayman area, while the main Israeli force, operating from the El Auja area, has broken through Egyptian posi- tions at Abu Aweigla. A government spokesman announced that Israeli forces have encountered two Egyptian divisions at full strength, about 209000 men. About 36,000 Egyptian forces were in the Sinai area at the time of the Israeli attack. Israeli forces operating in Sinai are re- ported to consist of one armored infantry division, '"plus other elements:' Another armored infantry division and other in- fantry elements are believed to be deployed along the Gaza strip. Part of this force may be available to reinforce the division operating in Sinai. Egyptian armor in Sinai has attacked Israeli armored units advancing on the road to Ismailia, but apparently was unable to prevent an Israeli advance to the Mediterranean coast near El Arish. Egypt is reported to have reinforced its forces in Sinai with at least one regiment of T-34 medium tanks. On 30 October at least one armored group, 1 Nov 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 3 TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179160 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179160 ',we" Noe including medium and heavy Soviet-built tanks, armored infantry, and artillery, moved through Cairo en route to the Suez Canal zone. The anticipated An lo-French land- ings in Egypt have not occurred. * * * * * * * * The Watch Committee of the IAC met in regular session at 1030 on 31 October. It published a con- clusion and note on the Middle East as follows: "The USSR has repeatedly declared its serious and continuing interest in the Middle East and is sup- porting the Arabs politically in the present conflict. No firm evidence is available bearing on Soviet intentions to inter- vene militarily in Middle East hostilities. The presence of Soviet military technicians in Egypt and Syria, Soviet ma- teriel and logistic support of certain Arab states and the probable presence of Soviet submarines in the area are evi- dence of prior Soviet indirect involvement in this situation. This indirect support probably will be furnished on an in- creasing scale. NOTE: "Hostilities are now in progress involv- ing Israel, Egypt, the UK and France. It is probable that fighting will spread to other Arab states. The Watch Com- mittee, in accordance with its Charter and with the Chair- man's understanding of instructions from the LAC on 30 Octo- ber will concentrate its attention in particular on indications of Soviet intent to participate militarily, either directly or indirectly, in the area," 1 Nov 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 4 --T-14P�FrFPffirr Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179160 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179160 Noe CYPRUS (U.K.) Trip�li 04-0 [E] Infantry fig Airborne Infantry EDI Armored Infantry (21 Cavalry LE Armored Cavalry CI Armored CI Field Artillery M Antiaircraft Artillery t�l National Guard P Palestine Home Guard FC Frontier Corps SG Security and Guard xxxx Army xxx Corps xx Division X Brigade ii Regiment I I Battalion Company or Battery exandrd FC SG 10441011 400111 :OW 110 FC Cg3SG 12ISG lgISG Suez MOST MOST SG SG SG CD ort Said ISRAELI MOVES 29-31 OCT. SELECTED ROADS EGYPTIAN MOVES 310CT. POSSIBLE SYRIAN MOVEMENT E ! SVF.2 ANA1 201 40 60 80 100 N UTICAL MILES sh NAKHL SINAI PENINSULA NLOCATED SUC, ) ,.OSG 1,0 SG LEBANON BEIRUT 110In En a rgi Ct3 cti Haifa.' LAI ctEgl ct3 ISRAEL t3 Al Ounaytirah S YR I A I , 171t1 Tel Aviv � nEND ISSIG rt t HQ AMMAN Jerusalem taH0 03NQ CA3 1] NEUTRAL ZONE kx.,1g1N) �Nablus', Lt rg British "V, �Al Aqabah 1;ShPartim Al ShAikh National Guard BNS Wi_S1 BANK 10 BeiS EAST BANK JORDAN Eg British � Maan SAUDI ARABIA Tabuk � Cgl 1 Nov 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin =Mak Page 5 60828 B IN 1", Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179160 Approved for Release: 2079/10/23 C03179160 'NS 2. THE SITUATION IN HUNGARY (information as of 1700 EST 31 October) The American legation in Budapest re- ported on 31 October at 1300 Budapest time that "it became virtually certain in Budapest this morning that the Hun- garian revolution was now a fact of history:' The legation said that per- sonal observations, newspaper stories, and radio broadcasts tended to confirm the complete withdrawal of Soviet troops y. There is no indication, however, that these Soviet forces have as yet returned to their garrisons Apparently in direct response to the de- mands of the increasingly powerful Revolutionary Military Council of the Hungarian army, Premier Nagy told a crowd gathered in Kossuth Square in midafternoon of the 31st that not he but his predecessors had asked for Soviet military aid, and that his government is demanding not only the im- mediate withdrawal of all Soviet troops from Hungary, but also withdrawal of Hungary from the Warsaw pact. The Military Council was established on 30 October by army and police units, insurgent workers, and youth groups. It includes a rebel leader, Colonel Pal Maleter, who led the insurgents in their defense of Ulloi Ut barracks. The council, officially recognized by the Nagy regime, apparently is backed by major elements of the Hungarian army and air force, and appears strong enough to maintain order in Budapest. In addition, it has probably gained wide popular support by threatening on the 30th to attack Soviet units if they did not leave Budapest "within 12 hours," and withdraw from Hungary by 31 December. Strenuous efforts are being made by one major "free" regional government--the Transdanubian National Council located at Gyoer--to line up support from insurgents elsewhere in the provinces in order to unify "na- tional interests" and withhold recognition of the Nagy regime 1 Nov 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 6 -SEER:ET Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179160 Approved for Release: 7019/10/23 C03179160 until their demands are met. There is no firm evidence to indicate a relationship between the two seemingly most powerful revolutionary units, the Revolutionary Military Council--recognized by Nagy--and the Transdanubian National Council. They both appear to include Communists and non-Communists. Both seem willing, if Nagy will ac- cede to their basic demands, to recognize his government, at least until peace can be restored and free elections held. The Transdanubian Council claims the support of the national councils of several West Hungarian counties and military units in the western part of the coun- try, as well as the Hungarian army's 9th Division. It enunciated its demands in a special session on 31 October. These include: (1) the proclamation of Hungarian neutrality at the UN; (2) a free and general election, at the latest by the end of January 1957; (3) the naming of a national coun- cil for the interim period with the right to appoint ranking military officers; (4) changes in the national government to ensure adequate representation of "freedom fighters" in the government; and (5) guarantee of the freedom of speech, press, assembly and religion. This regional council, which is now apparently supported by the insurgents at Miskolc, also expressed the view that the rebel demands should be met by the government before individual parties are recon- stituted, possibly in fear that the Nagy government would utilize the cover of a mock coalition to hold back on the granting of further demands. Following Nagy's call for a multiparty system on 30 October, the Smallholders and Peasant Parties were reorganized. However, the Budapest radio reported on 31 October that Bela Kovacs, strongly anti-Communist Smallholder leader, informed a meeting of his party in Pecs that he had not accepted his appointment to the government as minister of agriculture; he now planned to go to Budapest to discuss the political situation with Premier Nagy. Mean- while, the Social Democratic Party, which continues to re- frain from joining the Nagy coalition, announced on the same day its reorganization and the election of Anna Kethely as president. To maintain his leadership, Nagy continues to work feverishly for an accommodation with the rebels--a 1 Nov 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 7 �SEER-Er- Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179160 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179160 9 difficult task without a guarantee of a Soviet troop with- drawal. Apparently making a virtue of necessity, the re- gime has restored all civil and ecclesiastical rights to Cardinal Mindszenty, who had already been freed by the rebels. All proceedings and allegations against him were branded false. In addition, Nagy continues to shuffle gov- ernment figures. Hungary's chief delegate to the UN, Peter �Kos, was recalled on 30 October; Laszlo Hay, president of the National Bank, was fired, and Prosecutor General Gyorgy Non--allegedly guilty of criminal activity in the past few days�was ousted. Nagy may also yield to popu- lar demands for the removal of Ferenc Muennich, newly appointed minister of interior. 1 Nov 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 8 -SEGREF- Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179160 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179160 3. SOVIET STATEMENT CONDEMNS WESTERN AGGRESSION AGAINST EGYPT The Soviet statement of 31 October charged the Israeli attack was de= signed to provide a pretext for Western powers, particularly Britain and France, to re-establish their po- sition in the Arab states and Suez. The statement called for immediate Security Council action. In a conversation with Ambassador Bohlen at a Moscow reception on 30 October, former for- eign minister Molotov repeated the line taken by Soviet propaganda media that the US had been in collusion with Britain and France in the Israeli attack. During the dis- cussion Molotov modified this to state that Israel had the support of Britain and France, who wished to punish Nasr for nationalizing the Suez Canal. Khrushchev and Bulganin also expressed their concern to foreign diplomats. According to a press report from London on 31 October, Communist diplomats who have accurately reflected the thinking of Soviet leaders stated that "volun- teers from the Soviet Union and other countries" could be expected to pour into the Middle East to aid Egypt in any Anglo-French attack. The diplomats expressed their hope that the United States would "exert its influence" on Britain and France against the use of force. During the Suez crisis, Moscow limited itself to promises of equipment and volunteers in the event of Western military action. There is no indication that the USSR will make any further commitment at this time. 1 Nov 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 9 -SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179160 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179160 4, INDIAN REACTION TO SUEZ DEVELOPMENTS The Indian UN delegate in New York told Ambassador Lodge that the United States has the full support of India in the Middle East crisis. India announced on 31 Octo- ber that it considered the Anglo-French "invasion of Egyptian territory" a "fla- grant violation of the UN charter?' Comment India appears pre- pared to condemn "aggression" in the Suez Canal area and to take appropriate action in co-operation with the Colombo powers, the Bandung powers, or in the United Nations. India probably feels that the US is the only power in a position to influence Britain, France and Israel at this time, and seems to be looking to the US for leadership. Pakistani president Mirza has assured the American ambassador in Karachi that the United States can count on Pakistan's support. Thailand and Indonesia have also voiced their willingness to back American efforts for a peace- ful settlement. The 23-member Arab-Asian bloc, of which India considers itself the leader, on 31 October formally con- demned the British-French ultimatum, calling it a blow to the UN. The group also supports the convening of a special ses- sion of the General Assembly. 1 Nov 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 10 --crrivrivEiv-ma Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179160 Approved for Release: C03179160 IMP" 5. LIBERALIZATION TREND TO CONTINUE IN SOVIET POLICY TOWARD EASTERN EUROPE e possibility that the Soviet leaders re contemplating even greater liberali- ation in their policies toward the Satel- ites was indicated by Khrushchev on nversation with Ambassador Bohlen, Ithrushchev, referring to recent Polish and Hungarian devel- opments, said that the "Soviet government would continue without deviation along its present course as laid down at the 20th party congress!' He added that in the future there would be "changes which would surprise everyone." 1 Nov 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 11 Approved for for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179160 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179160 1 1-4,1 Neve *se 6. PEIPING TAKING CONCILIATORY LINE IN BURMA BORDER TALKS CHINA PAK Discussions on the Burma border problem are making "good progress" and Chou En-lai has agreed to accept the 1941 boundary in the Wa States, the Chi- nese, contrary to expectations, have raised no diffi- culties regarding the ICachin State frontier, although they have nn,11 fryt� nrkinnr Rimmese concessions in the vicinity of Hpimava. INDIA Rangoon KACHIN STATE � Myitkyina � � Na mk ham Lashio � i � Mandalay 4.�k 1 NOVEMBER 1956 100 200 miles pimaw WA STATES CHINA 60608 1 Nov 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 12 main_ cran Crl" Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179160 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179160 Ngoil representatives of the Kachin mi- nority adamantly refused to endorse concessions by Burma in the Hpimaw area. Burma therefore was prepared if neces- sary to make a minor concession of territory near Namkhain instead. Burmese officials told the American embassy in Rangoon that they look forward to successful termination of the negotiations during U Nuts stay in Peiping. Comment Peiping has apparently now decided to make a quick border settlement gener- ally on Burmese terms in order to prevent further damage to Communist China's pose as a "peaceful power." Such a settlement would be hailed by other neutralist powers, par- ticularly India, as vindication of the "five principles of co- existence." If necessary, Burma would probably make a concession in the Hpimaw area, but at the cost of possibly serious dissatisfaction among the Kachins. 1 Nov 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 13 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179160 Approved for�RTle�a7e72-0-19/10/23 C03179160 Noe *ftri 7. SOUTH KOREA STEPS UP PROPAGANDA AGAINST NORTH KOREA In a series of special broadcasts to North Korea, Seoul radio has been calling on the people to "rise against Communist rule in response to the up- risings in East European countries." Seoul radio announced on 30 October that all university, high school and primary students are expected to join in a movement calling for the North to rebel. President Rhee reportedly told officials of the Asian Peoples Anti-Communist League that he might "do something" following the American elections if the Com- munists do not disarm themselves and surrender now. Comment President Rhee is probably hopeful that the present situation will give him an op- portunity to gain his objectives of recovering Communist- held territory south of the 38th parallel and unifying Korea by force. Last August, he ordered the armed forces to pre- pare mobilization plans in case "the West" committed troops to Suez. While Rhee's threats are probably intended as propaganda, any indication that the North Korean people would support him might encourage him to provoke fighting. Organized opposition to the regime in North Korea, however, is lacking or insignificant� 1 Nov 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 14 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179160 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179160 THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION (Information as of 2400, 31 October) A press report ascribed to a military source in Tel Aviv a statement that a Soviet-built MIG-17 was among the nine Egyptian aircraft shot down by the Israeli air force to date. The presence of MIGL17's in Egypt has been reported on several occasions during the past fewub- stantiation of these reports. Israeli tanks had infiltrated and bypassed the key road junction of Abu Aweigla in eastern Sinai�cutting the roads to Ismailia in the canal zone and El Arish on the Mediterranean coast 1 Nov 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 15 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179160 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179160 Nor '�wor' The Greek Foreign Ministry has granted Egypt authorization to fly aircraft from Bulgaria south- ward over Greece on an unspecified date up to 4 November, ac- cording to The type of aircraft and the nature of the passengers are not known. (For another article bearing on the situation, see 1 Nov 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 16 TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179160 Noire Approved for Release: 2019/1-0/23 C03179160 *V/ BIWEEKLY SUMMARY (18 October-31 October 1956) THE TAIWAN STRAIT Report of the IAC Current Intelligence Group for the Taiwan Strait Problem 1. There were no significant combat operations in the area during the period. 2. The Chinese Communists have announced that track- laying on the trans Fukien railroad has been completed as far as Changping, about 183 track kilometers from Amoy. Com-, pletion of tracklaying by the end of 1956 or shortly thereafter seems likely, but the railway will probably not be in full opera- tion until early next year. 1 Nov 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 17 CONFIDENiabth-- Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179160 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179160 Nei TAIWAN STRAIT SITUATION 31 OCTOBER 1956 4=1.11I CHINESE COMMUNIST AIRFIELD LEGEND: DESIGNATIONS PRIMARY AIRFIELD CONSIDERED MOST IMPORTANT IN AREA WITH PREPARED RUNWAY GENERALLY 5000 FEET OR LONGER. SECONDARY AIRFIELD AUXILIARY OR EMERGENCY BASES OR FIELDS OF LESSER IMPORTANCE. RUNWAYS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5000 FEET. ACTIVE RASE FOR MILITARY & CIVIUAN AIR� CRAFT. SOME BASES USED BY PISTON TYPES MAY BE USABLE BY JETS OPERATIONAL INACTIVE BASES CAPABLE OF USE BY AIRCRAFT SERVICEABLE CURRENT STATUS UNDETERMINED UNKNOWN USABILITY ? MIG-15 MIG-17 TU-4 IL-28 TU-2, IL-10 LA-9 /11 L1-2 ETC. UNKNOWN * FIELDS NOT CONSIDERED CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SUSTAINED OPER- ATIONS AT PRESENT. H U ANKOW ( HuAININ% /- � 15. : NANCI-IAN -28 CHA� N05HA� NGYANG 26 24 HIU NGS- SHANGJAO 120 KIANGSU r, ICH lAHSING _ - rH-A-N-6-0H_OW _Jr / I CHUHSJEN - 1/-- --) ingtan � / A .. ( X WENCHOW 0, r 1 i'iti- '- C)rL LUCHIA :111,0, / N. wiping .s,... "1..53;000 ""NIngte ) 6,-;�� , / A.t- FOO � . _ ')04414 ...Yungan NANTA i_V41. - -r- :- -- --ri A- - CHANGTING* - LI ENCHEaq ---1 IIIIFLG 'VI ) 1 : A- � _s , .'" � * ty1f5C1c1,1,AN / (5- \-� ' LIINGCNI�' ,....,..� e / \ )89, � --- ) KVANGTUNG = ----k ' /CANTON CHEN_PHA�L SWATOVY -SHUJKOU - - � 114 QHIENOU ikCHANGPING- - - 0 H U 120 vu HSINCHU � *TAICHUNG W HIA03� NNAN GTUNG 122 NAUTICAL IAILES 5t0 100 170 100 � STATUTE MILES 1- Railroad + Under construction or projected *NATIONALIST AIRFIELD Primary roads Secondary roads imimmee, --StelftErf Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179160