CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/08/22

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03189014
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RIPPUB
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U
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10
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December 12, 2019
Document Release Date: 
December 20, 2019
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Publication Date: 
August 22, 1957
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_Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03189014 TOP SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN ranyo' 22 August 1957 Copy No. 136 OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY This document contains classified information affecting the national security of the United States within the meaning of the espionage laws, US Code Title 18, Sections 793, 794, and 798. The law prohibits its transmission or the revelation of its contents in any manner to an un- authorized person, as well as its use in any manner prejudicial to the safety or interest of the United States or for the benefit of any foreign government to the detri- ment of the United States. z TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03189014 Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03189014 opooN, Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03189014 Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03189014 CONTENTS . EGYPTIAN ATTITUDE TOWARD SYRIAN SITUATION (page 3). THAI CABINET CRISIS (page 4). 3. UNEF DEPLOYMENT LIKELY TO BE CRITICAL ISSUE AT FORTHCOMING GENERAL ASSEMBLY (page 5). .14. VENEZUELAN GOVERNMENT MAY BAN CHIEF OPPOSITION LEADER FROM PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS (page 6). (PS. NEW FRENCH INDUSTRIAL MISSION GOING TO PEIPING (page 7). 6. PROPOSED ALGERIAN STATUTE TERMED STEP BACKWARD (page 8). 1 7. INDONESIAN PRIME MINISTER PLANS NATIONAL ROUND- 0c) TABLE CONFERENCE (page 9). 22 Aug 57 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 2 TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03189014 Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03189014 xi� A mok 1. EGYPTIAN ATTITUDE TOWARD SYRIAN SITUATION While the Egyptian press and radio have utilized the current Syrian situation as material for intense anti-American prop- aganda, and have generally approved Syrian actions, President Nasr has re- portedly expressed some anxiety over the recent developments. Nasr feels the present leftist orientation of the Syrian government is "not favorable to Egyptian interests," and places the blame on American "play- ing around." He allegedly fears that the extent of Communist influence in the Syrian regime may reflect upon Egypt and there- fore lead friendly "neutralist" nations to assume that Egypt has also sold out to the USSR. Nasr added his belief that the appar- ent Communist nature of the regime may provide the United States with an opportunity for interference in Syria, working through Iraq, Turkey, and Jordan. The Syrian ambassador in Cairo reportedly has stated that Egyptian influence in Syria is waning considerably, while the Soviet embassy has become the "dominant mission" in Damascus. Continued close cooperation with a Communist- dominated Syria would be extremely difficult for Nasr in the face of his many denials of sympathy for Communist aims in the Mid- dle East. At the same time, a severance of his affiliation with Syria would leave him isolated in the Arab world unless Egypt's present strained relations with other Arab states undergo rapid improvement. 22 Aug 57 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 3 SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03189014 Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03189014 /...71.-,/ 2. THAI CABINET CRISIS ivoignations of Defense Minister Sarit and a number of his followers from the Thai cabinet may lead to a serious political crisis in Bangkok. Both the army, controlled by Marshal Sarit, and the police, controlled by his rival, General Phao, are reportedly on an alert status, the Sarit faction hoped by resigning to force Phibun to form a new cabinet. Sarit would then presumably use his influence to prevent reappointment of Phao as minister of interior. Phao has informed the press he will resign his numerous corporate directorships, rather than leave the present cabinet under Phibun's edict that ministers can retain no business inter- ests. Sarit might be inclined to attempt a coup d'etat at this time, when his forces presumably are in a state of readiness. He has failed to act forcefully, however, during previous tense periods over the last several months. A settle- ment might be achieved by Phibun's own assumption of the de- fense and interior portfolios, which he held prior to last Feb- ruary; Sarit and Phao would withdraw from the cabinet or be- come deputy ministers. Such an arrangement might satisfy Sarit, who for some time has been pressing for Phao's elimina- tion from the cabinet. Under any such agreement, Sarit would remain in control of the army and Phao the police. 22 Aug 57 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 4 Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03189014 Approved for Release.: 2019/12/10 C03189014 ftt 3. UNEF DEPLOYMENT LIKELY TO BE CRITICAL ISSUE AT FORTHCOMING GENERAL ASSEMBLY UN Secretary General Hammarskjold believes that the deployment of the UN Emergency Force on both sides of the Egyptian-Israeli armistice line will be a critical issue at the forthcoming Gen- eral Assembly unless Israel agrees soon to at least a "token" patrol of its territory by UNEF. Hammarskjold believes that this issue is a "pearl" for the Arab bloc. Since the Eleventh General As- sembly's resolution of 2 February is generally interpreted to mean that the UN force should be on both sides of the line, he feels the Twelfth Assembly will probably specifically call for such deployment and that Israeli refusal to comply might re- sult in an Egyptian demand for UNEF's withdrawal, and, for practical purposes, the end of the UN force. Hammarskjold considers that the continued presence in the area of the UN force is a stabilizing factor conducive to settlement of other issues. Ambassador Lodge agrees with the secre- tary general and adds that Tel Aviv's refusal to accept UNEF might well result in a "further weakening of Israel's interna- tional status," Comment The majority of UN members can be ex- pected to call formally for such action, pri- marily because of the general approval of the UNEF effort, unless Israel agrees in advance to some token stationing of UNEF on its side of the Egyptian border--which at present seems unlikely. Israel has, however, recently agreed to the stationing of UN truce observation posts on its Syrian border after many previous refusals. 22 Aug 57 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 5 SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03189014 Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03189014 4. VENEZUELAN GOVERNMENT MAY BAN CHIEF OPPOSITION LEADER FROM PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS Comment on: Venezuelan President Perez, who will seek a new five-year term in the 15 December elections, is apparently mov- ing to eliminate Rafael Caldera, princi- pal opposition leader and head of the social Christian COPEI party, from the campaign. Caldera is considered one of the few oppo- sition leaders not in edle who might be capable of challenging Perez' re-election bid. Oriented toward the Catholic Church, his party would probably receive the endorsement of the hier- archy, which recently has been at odds with the government. Moreover, the outlawed Democratic Action party, which may still control many votes, has reportedly arranged to support Caldera's candidacy. The rubber-stamp Venezuelan congress recently set the date of elections, but the opposition is not free to engage in political activity until an electoral law is promul- gated--an action which the regime will probably postpone as long as practicable. 22 Aug 57 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 6 TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03189014 Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03189014 5L-CR El. 5. NEW FRENCH INDUSTRIAL MISSION GOING TO PEIPING The French industrial delegation leaving for Communist China next week is described by a Foreign Ministry official as a "fact- finding group" which will not discuss diplo- matic recognition. He admitted, however, that it would "men- tion" to the Chinese the desirability of having French commer- cial representation in Peiping and that, if the Chinese demanded reciprocal representation in Paris, "France would have to face a decision not yet arrived at" The American embassy in Paris believes that the mission, which will be headed by Senator Henri Rochereau and Socialist Deputy Francis Vals, will seek orders for specific items, and points out that some of the industries represented are "strategic" in trade control terms. Comment A Chinese Communist official indicated last spring that Peiping considered that the 1956 talks placed trade relations with France on a satisfactory basis and was now interested solely in a visit by a French political mission. Moreover, Peiping has recently discouraged other West European efforts to send trading missions. In the light of these facts, some French elements may plan to use the mission as a cloak for advancing diplomatic relations. Rochereau, who also headed the first French mission which visited Communist China in 1956, recently stated publicly that further trade expansion is bound up with the ques- tion of political recognition. However, Vals was reportedly named to the delegation by Premier Bourges-Maunoury with in- structions to make a report which would counteract pro-recog- nition propaganda spread by former premier Edgar Faure after his June-July sojourn in Peiping. 22 Aug 57 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 7 SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03189014 Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03189014 �C�firtriitrZreitir 6. PROPOSED ALGERIAN STATUTE TERMED STEP BACKWARD Consul General Clark in Algiers be- lieves that the new basic law for Algeria prepared by Minister for Algeria Lacoste would be a step backward from the 1947 Algerian Statute and, therefore, unlikely to attract support either from Moslems or from many Euro- peans in Algeria. He says the draft is less liberal than im- plied in press reports and is heavily weighted in favor of pro- tecting only the European minority. Meanwhile, the Algerian government is stepping up its press campaign. It is emphasizing the alleged success of pacification, dissension within the Algerian National Liberation Front, and growing cooperation with France by Algerian Moslems. A consular officer who recently visited the Kabylie region of north central Algeria confirms that a more cooperative attitude exists among Moslems in that area. Comment The French cabinet reportedly is consider- ing two nearly identical drafts, the Lacoste draft and another which differs mainly in that it provides for revision by negotiation between French and Algerian representa- tives two years after the law takes effect. This provision is not likely to attract much Moslem support. 22 Aug 57 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 8 -CONFIDENTIAL Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03189014 Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03189014 7. INDONESIAN PRIME MINISTER PLANS NATIONAL ROUND- TABLE CONFERENCE Prime Minister Djuanda claims to have ob- tained the approval of President Sukarno, the national council, and the cabinet for a national round-table conference which he hopes to hold early in September, according to the American ambassador in Djakarta. Participants in the conference, which would deal with the controversies between Djakarta and the out- lying provinces, would be the cabinet and the chief military com- mander and civil official in each province. Both Sukarno and former vice president Hatta would act as advisers to the confer- ence. Djuanda said he would invite disaffected mil- itary commanders, such as Hussein of Central Sumatra and Sumual of North Celebes, to Djakarta for private talks prior to the formal conference sessions. He says they have assured him that they would accept an invitation from Djuanda h.mself al- though not from the army chief of staff, General Nasution. Djuanda told the American ambassador that in his opinion the country's greatest single need is the restora- tion of the Sukarno-Hatta relationship and that this will be dis- cussed at the conference. He said that if the conference failed, Indonesia's situation would speedily become critical. Comment Djuanda has made repeated efforts to resolve the issues between Djakarta and the non- Javanese provinces, but has failed to make any real progress as the result of Sukarno's refusal to cooperate� It is unlikely that Sukarno will give his wholehearted support to Djuanda's latest plan, particularly since a favorable outcome of the con- ference would require compromising Sukarno's own political and economic concepts. It is far more likely that the conference will point up unresolved differences between Djakarta and the provinces and increase provincial resistance. 22 Aug 57 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 9 SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/12/10 C03189014