CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/05/14

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Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
03192934
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RIPPUB
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U
Document Page Count: 
9
Document Creation Date: 
September 20, 2019
Document Release Date: 
September 26, 2019
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Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
May 14, 1955
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PDF icon CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULL[15722695].pdf307.38 KB
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Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 CO3192934, �T-8-P�SECR.17; 14 May 1955 Copy No. CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN DOCUMENT NO. NO CHANGE IN CLASS. C i DECLASSIFIED CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C NEXT REVIEW DATE: 20io AUTH: HR 70-2 DATE: .9/1/6O_REVIEVVER: Office of Current Intelligence CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY -cor-5ECRET JA Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03192934 Approved for Release: 2019(09/17 C0317934 Nap, ''vere SUMMARY SOVIET UNION 1. Comment on possible Soviet bloc military appointments (page 3). 2. Soviet leaders stress policy change and readiness to negotiate (page 4). 3. Comment on redisposition of Soviet naval units (page 4). FAR EAST 4. New crisis with Rhee over aid anticipated in June (page 5). 5. Large oil-drum loadings at Shanghai may be for Fukien airfields (page 6). SOUTH ASIA 6. NEAR EAST - AFRICA 7. USSR assigns military attache to Lebanon and Syria (page 7). * * * * 8. Yugoslav official reassures West on scheduled meeting with Soviet leaders (page 8). 14 May 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 2 -TOP ECREJL Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03192934 Approved for Rel-el-sT. 2076/09/17 C03192934 Nape roof SOVIET UNION 1. Comment on possible Soviet bloc military appointments: Recent information suggests that Marshal IS. Konev and Army General A.I. Antonov, members of the Soviet military delegation at the current Warsaw conference, will be appointed commander and chief of staff, respectively, of the proposed unified Soviet bloc military command. The Moscow censor has passed Western news stories alleging that Konev is to be the new commander. At the Elbe veterans' reunion in Moscow on 12 May, Marshal Sokolovsky parried the question, "Is it to be Konev?" by saying "NATO com- mander Gruenther is going to be pleased with our choice." Konev and General Gruenther had many official contacts in Austria in 1945, when Konev was chief of Soviet forces in Austria and Gruenther was deputy chief of American forces there. Antonov's probable appointment is suggested by the fact that on 12 May he addressed a closed session of the confer- ence on problems connected with the establishment of a combined command. Among other assignments, he served as a deputy chief of the Soviet General Staff from 1943 to 1947, and for several months in 1945 he was chief. Konev and Antonov are among several com- manders of border military districts in the western USSR who were replaced and returned to Moscow in recent months. Konev was re- - cently identified as deputy minister of defense. Antonov's present assignment is not known. 14 May 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 3 �1a0P�S-EC�RET Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03192934 ( Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03192934 New' Nor 2. Soviet leaders stress policy change and readiness to negotiate: Comment: Soviet leaders desire to arrange an East-West detente and to contrast this position with the alleged American "policy of strength." Bulganin followed a similar line at the October Revolution celebration last year. While the USSR suffers from economic weaknesses, particularly in the fields of agriculture and labor pro- ductivity, they can hardly be termed critical. 3. Comment on redisposition of Soviet naval units: The move on 13 May of two Soviet Sverdlov-class light cruisers and four new destroyers from the Baltic probably is a redeployment to augment the rela- tively weak surface forces of the Northern or Pacific Fleets. 14 May 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 4 TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03192934 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03192934 Noe Four light cruisers .and 33 destroyer- type vessels are presently in the Northern Fleet; two heavy cruisers and 45 destroyer-type vessels are in the Pacific Fleet. In late March two floating drydocks capa- ble of servicing Sverdlov-class cruisers left the Black Sea, re- portedly for Petropavlovsk in the Far East. The move of these docks to the Far East suggests that the cruisers leaving the Baltic may ultimately be assigned to the Pacific Fleet. The immediate destination of the warships, however, is believed to be the Northern Fleet FAR EAST 4. New crisis with Rhee over aid anticipated in June: Economic Aid Co-ordinator Wood expects "acrimonious controversy" and a major crisis in South Korean-United States re- lations to develop during economic dis - cussions planned for June. He reports that President Rhee is counting heavily on this conference and expects it to produce, at a minimum, a fixed hwan-dollar exchange rate for at least one year. Wood believes that Rhee will insist on fix- ing the value of the hwan far above its actual value. This would hamper anti-inflation efforts and greatly stimulate the black market and windfall profits. Comment: Rime's belief that a permanent exchange rate will cure South Korea's inflation problem--a theory not shared by his own officials--was one of the issues which delayed for four months implementation of this year's $700,000,000 aid program. Rhee has already announced publicly that a fixed rate will become effective 1 July. Other reports indicate he plans to demand 90 percent of all American aid allocated to the Far East in fiscal 1956. 14 May 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 5 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03192934 -- Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03192934 viur vitov 5. Large oil-drum loadings at Shanghai may be for Fukien airfields: Barges were being loaded with oil drums at almost every oil wharf in Shanghai in early May, possible that the Chinese Communists are using oil barges to supply fuel to airfields in the Chekiang-Fukien areas, moving by inshore routes and probably at night. Comment: Shanghai, where most of East China's oil storage facilities are located, would be the normal source for fuel deliveries to airfields nearing completion in the coastal areas opposite Formosa. In view of the difficulties of high- way transport to these fields, the Chinese Communists may well attempt to supply these new installations by sea. there is a substantial movement 6. of full and empty drums between Shanghai and points up the Yangtze River, both to deliver petroleum products upstream and to pick up vegetable oil for delivery to Shanghai. :14 May 55 SOUTH ASIA CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 6 -TOP-SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03192934 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03192934 NEAR EAST - AFRICA 7. USSR assigns military attache to Lebanon and Syria: The American embassy in Beirut reports that, according to the chief of staff of the Lebanese army, the Soviet Union is as- signing a military attache to Lebanon who will also cover Syria. He will have two assistants stationed in Beirut, with presumably at least the same number in Damascus. Comment: The timing of these assign- ments emphasizes Moscow's interest in the present uncertain situ- ation in Syria. These assignments are part of a Soviet program to accredit attaches to non-Orbit countries previously without such repre- sentation. During 1954, Soviet service attaches were assigned for the first time to Belgium, Egypt, Greece, India, the Netherlands, Palr,P1- StaN and Yugoslavia. 14 May 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03192934 Page 7 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03192934 8. Yugoslav official reassures West on scheduled meeting with Soviet leaders: Yugoslav foreign minister Popovic empha- sized on 13 May to the American ambassa- dor in Belgrade that the meeting scheduled for the end of this month between a Soviet delegation including Khrushchev, Bulganin, and Mikoyan and the top leaders of the Yugoslav government in no sense implied a fund- amental change in the Yugoslav policy of cordial, relations with Western countries. He interpreted the holding of the meeting in Belgrade as a victory for the Yugoslav policy of firmness in the face of Soviet threats, which was made possible by the support Yugo- slavia had received from the West. Stating that Belgrade's efforts paralleled those of the West, Popovic said that full equality of rights and non- interference in the internal affairs of the other nation would be the basis of the meeting, in which Yugoslavia hoped to probe the sin- cerity of Soviet intentions. The only item of the agenda revealed by Popovic was the question of practical matters relating to "nor- malization" of relations between Yugoslavia and the USSR. Popovic was evasive on the question of who proposed the meeting. The American, British and French ambassadors are inclined to believe it was the USSR. Comment: This dramatic Soviet gesture is at the least intended to impress all Europeans with the sincer- ity of the Soviet desire for a reduction of world tension. The high level of the Soviet delegation and its willingness to travel to Belgrade suggest that the USSR has strong hopes of creating much closer ties with Yugoslavia, which might go so far as intimate co-operation between the two Commu- nist parties and a mutual security treaty between Moscow and Bel- grade. Moscow probably calculates that even if such far-reaching results cannot be attained, the visit-will yield greater Yugoslav neutrality, both through a change in Belgrade's foreign policy and through increased Western suspicion of Tito. 14 May 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 8 ECRE Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03192934 Approved for Release: .1019/09/17 C03192934 Nere Nor Molotov's absence from the delegation is probably accounted for by a belief that his presence would irritate the Yugoslays because of Ms direct connection with the Soviet break with Tito. Yugoslav officials have repeatedly stated that Soviet leaders have been seeking Belgrade's return to the Corn- inform, but they have insisted that the USSR must be disabused of the idea that Yugoslavia will surrender any independence in its foreign policy. A meeting of the two Communist nations "at the summit" will probably strengthen Yugoslavia's tendencies toward a neutral position and make Belgrade even more unwilling to expand its military connections with the West. It is doubtful, however, that Tito would be willing to withdraw from the Balkan alliance or break his other Western ties in return for a Soviet security treaty. 14 May 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 9 TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03192934