CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/07/07

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03448308
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: July 7, 1955

ed for
3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c)
7 July 1955
Copy No.
99
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. /./
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
LI DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE 4,o/
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: at,46_0_ REVIEWER: _
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
z
7VP SECRET
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See
SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Communist China may receive six more Soviet naval vessels
(page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Comment on Communist China's first Five-Year Plan (page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Nehru said to view US-Cambodian agreement as Geneva violation
(page 5).
EASTERN EUROPE
4. Comment on Satellite attendance at American diplomatic recep-
tkons on 4 July (page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
5. Comment on proposed Italian cabinet (page 7).
LATIN AMERICA
6. Cuban revolutionary attempt may be imminent (page 8).
THE FORMOSA STRAITS
(page 9)
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No"
GENERAL
Communist China may receive six more Soviet naval vessels:
Six Soviet minesweepers or patrol craft
which accompanied the second convoy of
American lend-lease vessels being re-
turned to Maizuru, Japan,
proceeded south through the Tsushima rai. s pro
ably en route to a Chinese port.
Comment: The arrival of these ships at
a Chinese port would be a strong indication that they will eventually
be transferred to the Chinese Communists. Soviet warships turned
over to China previously have included at least two destroyers and
seven submarines. Two other clestrnverg nti frni. more submarines
arrived at Tsingta, apparently to be
transferred to the lunese.
Soviet naval strength at Port Arthur prior
to the turnover of that base was believed to have included three sub-
marines, two subtenders, 24 motor-torpedo boats, and six mine-
sweepers. Since none of these vessels has returned to the Soviet
Union, at least some of them may have been transferred to the
Chinese.
0 L I
014
'�
Peiping *
Port Arthur
Tsingtao
Ps-
YELLOW
SEA
U.S.S.R.
.Vladivosto
SEA OF
JAPAN
'7
200 400 600
Statute Miles
PRESENTATIONS DIVISION
7 JULY 1955
50706 3
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FAR EAST
. Comment on Communist China's first Five-Year Plan:
rhe announcement for the first time
)n 5 July of the outline of Chines re-
;ently revised first Five-Year Plati,
begun in 1953, indicates tiat Peiping does not consider the dif-
ficulties of the past two years in agricultural production suffi-
ciently serious to lower the ambitious goals it has for industrial-
ization. The plan appears feasible, although the attainment of
same of the goals depends on the procurement of scarce heavy
Industrial equipment from the USSR.
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED INDUSTRIAL ITEMS IN COMMUNIST CHINA
(Based on Peiping announcements)
7 JULY 1955
ELECTRIC POWER
Billion KWH
PAST PEAK 1949 1952 1957 GOAL
COAL
Million Metric Tons
PAST PEAK 1949 1952 1957 GOAL
PRESENTATIONS DIVISION
STEEL
Million Metric Tons
PAST PEAK 1949 1952
CEMENT
Million Metric tons
PAST PEAK 1949 1952 1957 GOAL
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The goal for increasing agricultural
production by 1957 over 1952 has been reduced from 30 percent,
as announced in 1953, to 17.6 percent. Even this lower figure
cannot be reached, however, unless a larger percentage of in-
vestment resources is allocated to agriculture.
The Five-Year Plan calls for an in-
crease in gross value in total industrial output of 98.3 percent
over 1952. This would require an average annual increase of
only 9 percent from 1954 to 1957, as compared with the announced
increase of 33 percent in 1953 and 15 percent in 1954.
By 1957 China plans to begin, with Soviet
aid, the development of atomic energy for economic purposes. In
January the USSR offered to help China and several Satellites de-
velop atomic energy for peaceful purposes, an offer that Peiping
has since publicized on several occasions. Prepared
by ORR)
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Nehru said to view US-Cambodian agreement as Geneva violation:
Nehru was said to feel that "any vehement
denunciation" of the pact "would only provoke America to utterly
disregard the Geneva agreement:' He also felt, however, that the
United States, unless condemned for its action in Cambodia, would
"take bolder strides" with respect to Laos.
Comment: Although this report may ex-
aggerate Nehru's views some'what, an Indian Foreign Ministry of-
ficial gave Ambassador Cooper the impression on 4 July that India
would consider the American-Cambodian pact a violation of the
Geneva agreement.
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The Foreign Ministry official said the
International Control Commission would have to make a decision
against the pact unless the United States issued a declaration
clarifying its wording and defensive intent. He indicated that
India's final decision would probably not be made until Nehru re-
turned to New Delhi about 12 July.
EASTERN EUROPE
4. Comment on Satellite attendance at American diplomatic recep-
tions on 4 July:
Receptions held by American diplo-
matic missions in Poland, Czechoslo-
vakia, and Hungary on 4 July were
unusually well attended by Satellite and
Soviet representatives, whose behavior
was also unusually cordial.
This, together with the attendance of
ranking Soviet presidium members at
the American embassy reception in Moscow, suggests that the
Satellite officials acted under specific instructions from the USSR.
Their attendance and behavior at the receptions contrast sharply
with the virulent anti-American propaganda which has character-
ized the recent and numerous "spy" trials in the Satellites.
The American legation staff and other
Western diplomats in Budapest were "stunned" by the unexpected
"onslaught" of Soviet bloc diplomats and top-level Hungarian of-
ficials. Among those in attendance at the reception were party.
first secretary Rakosi, two deputy prime ministers, and the for-
eign minister. This was Rakosi's first appearance at a Western
diplomatic reception since 1948.
The legation comments that the unex-
pected turnout, the largest for a Western reception in years, was
particularly surprising in view of the American boycott of cele-
brations on Hungarian National Day in April.
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The Czech delegation attending the recep-
tion in Prague, although "typically more cautious than their. Soviet
mentors," included for the first time in several years a fairly high-
level group headed by the foreign minister. Soviet bloc mission
chiefs were also present, including the Hungarian ambassador, who
had initially declined but who apparently later received orders to
attend. The American embassy notes that attendance at the Cana-
dian reception on 1 July was similar, but that the British recep-
tion for the queen's birthday on 9 June had been virtually boycotted.
In Warsaw, a larger number of Polish
officials than usual made an appearance and the atmosphere at the
reception was "cordial,"
WESTERN EUROPE
5. Comment on proposed Italian cabinet:
The cabinet formed by Italian premier-
designate Segni will likely receive par-
liamentary approval, but would appear
to have little chance of surviving for
more than a brief period. While the
cabinet could be expected to continue
Scelba's pro-Western foreign policy,
it would face a continuing stalemate on domestic reforms.
. Segni's major problem will be to main-
tain parliamentary support for a shaky coalition of diverse ele-
ments. He has secured the full backing of his own Christian
Democratic Party only at the price of giving the Finance Minis-
try and other important portfolios to members of the party's
right wing. These right-wingers would thus be in a position to
co-operate with the Liberal Party to block measures supported
by the reformist elements in the Labor, Budget, Agriculture,
and Public Works Ministries. Furthermore, Christian Demo-
crats and minor parties alike have become increasingly uneasy
in alliance with each other, and the patience exercised by these
groups during Scelba's 16 months in office has worn thin.
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Some of the opposition parties, such as
the Monarchists and Nenni Socialists, will probably adopt a wait-
and-see attitude in parliament until they discover whether Segni
will seek their support.
LATIN AMERICA
Cuban revolutionary attempt may be imminent:
A revolt, preceded by an attempt to
assassinate President Batista may oc-
cur in Cuba before mid-July,
The revolt
may have some military backing.
there
may be some disturbances as a result of the "aggressive" language
of ex-president Carlos Prio Socarras in announcing his plans to
return to Cuba by the middle of July.
Comment:
and the army probably remains loyal to Batista.
Since the Batista regime granted a politi-
cal amnesty on 7 May, Cuban security authorities have increased
repression of the opposition, and on 16 June they ordered the ar-
rest of Prio and 16 others as "terrorists." The return of Prio,
whose regime was overthrown by Batista in March 1952, would al-
most certainly lead to public demonstrations, but these would prob-
ably not threaten the present administration.
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WEEKLY SUMMARY
(30 June-6 July 1955)
THE FORMOSA STRAITS
Report of the IAC Current Intelligence Group
for the Formosa Straits Problem
1. The Formosa Straits area has remained generally
quiet. In a clash between Chinese Communist and Nationalist
jet fighters on 4 July, one Nationalist plane was damaged. On
the same day, Communist jet fighters attempted to intercept
two photo reconnaissance planes, but both escaped.
2. There has been no change in the status of the five
Chinese Communist airfields under construction in the coastal
area. Nantai, Lungtien and Chenghai are still considered ser-
viceable but as yet unoccupied. However,
probably in-
dicates an intention to occupy these new airfields in the near fu-
ture.
3. The chances for shooting incidents will be consider-
ably increased with the commitment of Nationalist F-86's to the
Formosa Straits area. The F-86's will act in the role of cover
for slower fighter/bomber and reconnaissance types over the
Fukien coastal area. The first class of Nationalist F-86 pilots
now are considered fully combat re considered highly
proficient in day combat ability.
4. Aerial photography of 30 June reveals that the Com-
munists have started construction of a road which will connect
the Peiling Peninsula just north of the Matsu Islands with the
main road network in the Foochow area. As Communist forces
on the peninsula are now dependent on water routes for reinforce-
ments and logistic support, completion of t si �11 ease Com-
munist logistic problems on the peninsula.
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5, Chinese Communist naval units are continuing their
program of training activity and logistic support in and around
the Peiling Peninsula. Minor Communist naval units in the
Amoy area were also observed conducting amphibious exercises
on a small scale, including surface firing exercises at a towed
target.
6. Taipei press reports have alleged that "Red China
will shortly stage a gigantic landing maneuver in the Chou Shan
group with some 400 planes and more than 1,000 warships and
armed vessels taking part."
7. Peiping has continued to denounce "evasive" US state-
ments on the prospect of Sino-American negotiations. Secretary
Dulles' press conference of 28 June was interpreted by Peiping as
indicating that the US does not want direct talks with Communist
China to "ease tension" but wants instead to "interfere in China's
domestic affairs" by discussing the "liberation" of Formosa--a
subject described as "none of America's business." Peiping reaf-
firmed its objections to any international negotiations which would
include the Chinese Nationalists and to negotiations of any kind
over a "cease-fire"--a question said not to exist since "China
is not at war with the US and has no intention of going to war
against the US."
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FOOCHOW
NANTAI
Airfield
0
Ctit,tt.3
�
(Inoperable
LOYUAN
LOYUAN BAY
,-. ''onsttir
,c ,.... � 4.
(�6e
V, � Kuanling
,(0:- � cP
4 /
(be
LIENCHIANG
MA WET
KUANTOU
46'
CHANGLO
WEITOW
ISLAND
CHUANSHIH
ISLAND
MEIHTJA
SANTU INLET
PEILING
PENINSULA
toe
HUANGCHI
CHIRCHU ISLAND
(SPIDER ISLAND)
PEICHIAO
44'
4V:3
0,0 KAOTENG
PEIKANTANG
to
4.0
4(.56
/3.MATSU
EAST CHINA SEA
PAICHUAN ISLANDS
(WHITE DOGS)
HSICHUAN c2
TUNGCHITAN
0 0
; 10
1 1
Statute Miles
0 5 10
I i 1
Nautical Miles
LANGTAO
(LARNE ISLAND),
MATSU AREA
JULY 6 1955
Selected Road
PRESENTATION DIVISION
50706 50325
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FORMOSA STRAITS SITUATION
Primary roads
Secondary roads
,,� c�)
A OPERATIONAL
� A SERVICEABLE
� A UNKNOWN
UNDER
CONSTRUCT! ON
NAUT !CAL MI LES
o 50 loo
1�_
O 100
STATUTE MILES
COMMUNIST AIRFIELD LEGEND
I I I I 1I Railroad
Proposed railroad
USABILITY DESIGNATIONS
- MID-15, MIG.17,11U-4, IL.28
I 11U.2, IL-10. Lk-9/11. LI.2, ETC.
� UNKNOWN
* FIELDS NOT CONSIDERED CAPABLE OF
SUPPORTING SUSTAINED OPERATIONS
AT PRESENT.
Ilk" NATIONALIST AIRFIELO
WAN TUNG
CHEN
CANTON SW
Hong Kong
(ap..)
ENCHOW
TACHENS
EAST CHINA
SEA
--MATSUS
NGTIEN
TAOYU
INGYANG
HIANG* U, Aol
UEMOY
NGSHAN
PRIMARY! CONSIDERED MOST IMPORTANT IN AREA. WITH PREPARED
RUNWAY GENERALLY 5000 FEET OR LONGER.
SECONDARY: AUXILIARY OR EMERGENCY BASES. OR FIELDS OF LESSER
IMPORTANCE- RUNWAYS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5000 FEET.
CPERATIONAL: ACTIVE BASE FOR MILITARY & CIVILIAN AIRCRAFT.
SOME BASES USED BY PISTON TYPES MAY BE LISABLE BY LETS.
SERVICEABLE: INACTIVE BASES CAPABLE OF USE BY AIRCRAFT
UNKNONN: CURRENT STATUS UNDETERMINED.
UNDER
CONSTRUCTION
SOUTH CHINA SEA
114 116 118 120 12,2
PRESENTATIONS DIVISION
vEriRLE-T
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