CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/06/23

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03448319
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: June 23, 1955

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23 June 1955
Copy No. 99
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANCE IN CLASS. I
LI DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: IS S C
NEXT REVEN DATE � 0
AUTH: HR- 70-2
DATE: PM:5W_ REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. USSR reportedly makes new trade offer to Afghanistan (page 3).
SOVIET UNION
2. Drought reported in parts of "new lands" (page 4).
FAR EAST
3.
SOUTH ASIA
4. Pakistan's governor general apparently has lost control of new
constituent assembly (page 6).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. French premier suggests high-level talks with US on North
African problems (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
6. Comment on Italian government crisis (page 8
LATIN AMERICA
7. Comment on the Argentine situation (page 8).
THE FORMOSA STRAITS
(page 10)
23 June 55
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GENERAL
1. USSR reportedly makes new trade offer to Afghanistan:
The USSR has offered Afghanistan a
10-percent reduction in rail rates in ex-
change for a monopoly in purchasing the
bulk of Afghan exports except fruits, ac-
rangement. The plan also included a provision for the remainder
of Afghan exports to be shipped through the USSR to Western mar-
kets, and for most Afghan imports to pass through the USSR.
The American embassy comments that ac-
ceptance of such a Soviet proposal would give the USSR a near stran-
glehold on most Afghan exports and imports. The embassy adds
that this development is a strong indication, that Finance Minister
Malik is resolved to divert Afghanistan's trade channel to and through
the USSR in the face of growing pressure on the Afghan economy by
Pakistan's de facto blockade.
Comment: Afghan prime minister Daud
and Finance Minister Malik may be seriously considering a rear-
rangement of Afghan trade patterns. It is unlikely, however, that
they can actually do so. A report that King Zahir Shah has per-
sonally intervened in the Afghan-Pakistani dispute, as well as dis-
tinct signs that the Afghan government is gradually giving in to
Pakistani demands, indicates that Prime Minister Daud no longer
has a free hand in making policy,
Furthermore, Afghanistan would probably
find it difficult, even if :Prime Minister Daud so desired, to import
through the USSR the 2,000,000 to 3,000,000 imperial gallons of
gasoline it now obtains from Western sources, the American cars
and trucks which now comprise practically the whole of the Afghan
transportation system, and to export the karakul skins it trades
with the United States and which constitute the country's largest
hard currency earner,
In the case of petroleum products, however,
Soviet construction of bulk-storage facilities and pipelines in Afghan-
istan suggests a Soviet intention ultimately to make Afghanistan de-
pendent on the USSR as its principal supplier. (Concurred in by ORR)
23 June 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 3
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SOVIET UNION
. Drought reported in parts of "new lands":
American embassy officers returning
from northwest Kazakh SSR and Chkalov
Oblast at the edge of the "new lands"
area reported "dry, hot, dusty weather
crops suffering particularly in northwest Kazakh-
stan. Comments by local residents suggested that grain was
"burning up" and that conditions this year are much less favor-
able than last year. In the town of Bulak (see map, p. 5), one
resident remarked that the "last time it rained" was 5 or 6 May.
3.
Comment: Rainfall thus far in most of
the USSR has been favorable, but less rain has fallen in the "new
lands" this spring than in the comparable period in 1954. Har-
vests in some "new lands" areas, at least in those reported by
the embassy, will be smaller than last year, and unless there is
good rainfall within the next month, over-all yields in the "new
lands" will be considerably less than in 1954. Last year these
areas yielded a bumper crop which offset the losses from the
drought-stricken Ukraine and Volga areas. (Prepared by ORR)
23 June 55
FAR EAST
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 4
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WESTERN U. S. S. R.
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SOUTH ASIA
4. Pakistan's governor general apparently has lost control of new
constituent assembly:
The governor general of Pakistan will
not have control of the new 80-seat con-
stituent assembly which convenes on
7 July, according to the latest election
returns.
The Moslem League, which supported
the governor general and his associates in the 21 June elections,
can be sure of controlling only 25 of the 40 West Pakistani seats
in the assembly. These 25 seats will be insufficient to offset the
30 East Pakistani seats which the United Front opposition is ex-
pected to control. The league, however, may win some of the
eight West Pakistani seats representing minor states and terri-
tories whose holders will be elected by the assembly after it con-
venes.
Although the governor general may get
occasional support from the remaining 10 East Pakistani seats,
it is unlikely that a lasting coalition can be established. The
governor general's support in the assembly would be weakened
even further if, as has been feared, Prime Minister Mohammad
All and at least two of the Moslem League members from West
Pakistan join hands with the East Pakistani opposition.
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If a loose coalition of somewhat leftist
and frequently anti-American East Pakistani deputies and dissi-
dent West Pakistani associates succeeds in obtaining control of
the assembly, the governor general would be encouraged to re-
assume dictatorial powers in order to prevent a probable break-
down of government. Should he do so, he would find the Pakistani
public less willing to accept his action than it was last October.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. French premier suggests high-level talks with US on North
African problems:
Premier Faure suggested to Ambassa-
dor Dillon on 20 June the desirability of
high-level talks on North Africa cover-
ing all military problems between the
ates and France. Faure mentioned the questions of
MDAP equipment, American bases and NATO construction in
Tunisia and Algeria, and "wondered" whether Marshal Juin might
come to Washington to discuss them.
Faures personal spokesman added later
that the premier intended to move promptly to settle the dynastic
problem in Morocco without waiting for ratification of the Tunisian
accords. Faure had told Dillon that he intended to press for action
on the accords by both houses of parliament before adjournment on
25 July,
Comment: Faure 's suggestion of high-level
talks may be a reaction to Washington's expressed reluctance to
meet a detailed French request for military equipment to be used
in Algeria.
The intended move in Morocco probably
reflects Paris' hope that concessions on the dynastic issue may
satisfy the nationalists. It is likely, however, that some definite
steps toward autonomy will be needed to end terrorism in the pro-
tectorate.
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WESTERN. EUROPE
6. Comment on Italian government crisis:
The formation of a new Italian govern-
ment to replace that of Premier Scelba,
who resigned on 22 June, may be a long
anithLtOc�. The most likely eventual solution is a
single-party Christian Democratic government relying on sup-
port from either the Monarchists on the right or the Nermi Social-
ists on the left.
The Christian Democrats' left wing,
which is larger and stronger than the rightist group, would pre-
sumably refuse to support a move to the right which would threaten
implementation of their party's social and economic reform pro-
gram. On the other hand, the rebellion of the right-wing faction
in the recent presidential elections and in its refusal to approve
Scelba's proposed cabinet reshuffle suggests that it may demand a
high price for its co-operation.
As a result of his group's successful
maneuver in ousting Scelba, Giuseppe Pella, leader of the Chris-
tian Democrats' right wing, will probably be the first candidate
for the premiership. Pella, who relied on Monarchist support
when he was premier in 1953, is capable of turning either to the
right or left for support in forming a new government.
Other leading Christian Democratic
candidates for premier are party secretary Fanfani, Budget
Minister Vanoni, and former agriculture minister Segni9
all identified with the left wing of the party.
LATIN AMERICA
7. Comment on the Argentine situation:
Executive power in Argentina is reported
to be exer-
cised by a military junta, although Presi-
dent Peron is still referred to as chief of
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state. This junta includes Army Minister
Lucero, the commanding general of the
interior, General Emilio Forcher, and
the subsecretary of the army, General
Jose Embrione. Lucero remains the key
figure in the situation. Both Forcher
and Embrione are highly respected as
well as influential within the services.
The army has apparently not yet suc-
ceeded in reaching any agreement with
the rebel naval forces. According to the
American embassy in Buenos Aires, there
is much speculation that the chief point at
issue is Peron 's future, and a
rebel naval units at Puerto Belgrano have rejected the junta's plan
to keep Peron as a figurehead and ease him out later--insisting in-
stead that Peron must be brought to trial.
The navy's chief bargaining asset is said
to be its possession of the original revolutionary documents which
implicate personnel of all the armed services and high government
civilians.
23 June 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 9
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WEEKLY SUMMARY
(15-22 June 1955)
THE FORMOSA STRAITS
Report of the IAC Current Intelligence Group
for the Formosa Straits Problem
1. There have been no significant combat operations in
the area during the past week.
2.
Since early May BEAGLES (IL-28) of the 8th Air Division
based at Hangchow have been active in night attack exercises
and over-water bombing of surface targets. The 8th Division,
the only, Chinese Communist jet bomber unit based within strike
radius of the Formosa Straits, can be considered combat ready.
3. The move of Chinese NationalistartillerTbattalions
to the offshore islands, previously reported as being readied for
shipment, is now under way. Five Nationalist field artillery
battalions and two divisional engineer battalions were moved from
Formosa to Quemoy betwen 16 and 19 June, one division engineer
battalion left Formosa for Matsu on 16 June, and two field artillery
battalions are scheduled to move from Formosa to Quemoy within a
few days.
Six of the seven artillery battalions and the two division
engineer battalions are organic to divisions on Quemoy; their ar-
rival will bring the five divisions on Quemoy to approximately full
strength and increase Nationalist artillery on Quemoy from 171 to
255 pieces.
The Nationalists are also planning to send the 58th Divi-
sion from Formosa to Quemoy, a move opposed by US officials.
About 21 percent of the Chinese Nationalist army is now disposed
on the offshore islands; the move of an additional division would
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increase this to over 24 percent of over-all army strength. For
MDAP-supported units, the increase would be from 30 percent to
35 percent.
4. India's Krishna Menon, in recent conversations at the
UN and in Washington; has endorsed various Chinese Communist
proposals relating to negotiations with the US. Chou and Menon
have both suggested early diplomatic contacts between American
and Chinese Communist officials, have both argued that the US
should make some concessions to improve the atmosphere for
talks, and have both recommended that the topics for any talks
be defined in very general terms.
Neither Menon nor any other source has provided evi-
dence of a change in Peiping's hard line on substantive issues. The
Chinese Communists have consistently asserted that there is no
need for a cease-fire and that they wish to negotiate only about the
US "occupation" of Formosa. Peiping has left itself room, how-
ever, for a possible compromise
23 June 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 11
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CHINA -FORMOSA SITUATION
Primary roads
Secondary roads _ _ 0
NAUTICAL MILES
5,0 100 150
510 100 150
STATUTE MILES
Railroad
Proposed railroad
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COMMUNIST AIRFIELD LEGEND
USABILITY DESIGNATIONS
PRIMARY: CONSIDERED MOST IMPORTANT IN AREA. WITH PREPARED
M1G-17.TU.4. IL.28 RUNWAY GENERALLY 5000 FEET OR LONGER.
SECONDARY: AUXILIARY OR EMERGENCY BASES. OR FIELDS OF LESSER
11.1.2. IL-10. LAB/i1. LI-2. ETC. ' IMPORTANCE. RUNWAYS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5000 FEET.
UNKNOWN OPERATIONAL: ACTIVE BASE FOR MILITARY & CIVILIAN AIRCRAFT.
SOME BASES USED BY PISTON TYPES MAY BE USABLE BYJETS.
FIELDS NOT CONSIDERED CAPABLE OF
SUPPORTING SUSTAINED OPERATIONS
AT PRESENT.
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