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March 16, 2022
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March 10, 2016
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August 19, 1983
Approved for Release: 2016/03/03 C05241562 � � (b)(3) National Intelligence Council The Director of Central Intelligence Washington, DC. 20505 NIC NO. 5948-83/1 19 August 1983 MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution FROM Hans Heymann, Jr. National Intelligence Officer At Large SUBJECT Warning Report: Western Europe 1. Attached is my report to the DCI based on our meeting held 17 August 1983. If there are any significant amendments or additions you would wish to make, please let me know. (U) 2. Next month's warning meeting will be on Wednesday, 21 September 1983 at 1015 in Room 7-E-62. CIA Headquarters. Please have your clearances passed and call with names of the attendees by noon, 20 September 1983. (U) 3. I also encourage you to phone in suggestions for the agenda and proposals to make opening presentations. It would be helpful to have your comments for the next meeting by Monday, 12 September 1983. (U) Attachment Warning Report 42444 Hans Heymann, Jr. CL BY SIGNER DECL OADR (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2016/03/03 C05241562 (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2016/03/03 C05241562 SE ET The Director of Central Intelligence WashingtonA/C20505 National Intelligence Council MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence Deputy Director of Central Intelligence THROUGH : National Intelligence Officer for Warning FROM SUBJECT Hans Heymann, Jr., National Intelligence Officer At Large 19 August 1983 NIC No. 5948-83 Monthly Warning Assessment: Western Europe West Germany: Peace Movement and INF 1. The next several months will witness a steady increase in anti-INF demonstrations, peace camp activities, and the attempted blockade of US military installations. There is a general consensus among analysts that the bulk of these actions will be free of violence and that they will not dissuade the Kohl government from implementing the deployment schedule this fall. However, a number of uncertainties bear watching: -- Media coverage is likely to overplay the confrontational aspects of anti-INF actions, especially those involving Americans. In spite of the uncertainties, most analysts suspect that the size and momentum of the movement may have peaked -- some estimates show roughly 100,000 activists and 1-2 million sympathizers. There could, however, be as many as 10,000 members of small, radical, autonomous groups that could be planning more violent actions. Ironically, the smooth handling of recent S RET Approved for Release: 2016/03/03 C05241562 Approved for Release: 2016/03/03 C05241562 (b)(3) demonstrations by German and US authorities could inspire radicals to stage highly provocative actions against military installations and personnel. In this regard, the NATO Reforger military exercise this October could provide an � opportunity for terrorist groups to attack small, dispersed US military units in the Frankfurt area. (b West Europe/Central America 3. Analysts detect little change in West European attitudes toward Central America and US policies in the region. Publics remain ill-informed and dependent on news coverage that focuses on the US military intervention in Central America. Although a leftist minority has seen fit to integrate criticism of US Latin American policies into peace movement themes, the issue is not a salient one to most West Europeans. Moreover, West European governments are by no means united in their views on US Central American policies and have struck noticeably different postures. The lowest common denominator on Central America reflected at the recent EC Summit appears to be that: Central America's problems are primarily economic and social. A military solution in Central America does not exist. US attempts to cast Central American conflicts in an East/West context will be self-fulfilling. These sentiments, however, will probably not translate into greater European pressure on the US. Most governments -- and even the Socialist International -- have become more disillusioned with the record of the Nicaraguan government and have become generally less outspoken on Central American problems. SE (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2016/03/03 C05241562 Approved for Release: 2016/03/03 C05241562 � SE T � (b)(3) � ......." Hans Heymann, Jr. (b)(1) (b)(3) 1 Approved for Release 2016/03/03 C05241562 (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2016/03/03 C05241562 (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2016/03/03 C05241562