WARNING REPORT: WESTERN EUROPE

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05241562
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: March 16, 2022
• Document Release Date: March 10, 2016
• Case Number: F-2015-02129
• Publication Date: August 19, 1983

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National Intelligence Council
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, DC. 20505
NIC NO. 5948-83/1
19 August 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution
FROM Hans Heymann, Jr.
National Intelligence Officer At Large
SUBJECT Warning Report: Western Europe
1. Attached is my report to the DCI based on our meeting held
17 August 1983. If there are any significant amendments or additions you
would wish to make, please let me know. (U)
2. Next month's warning meeting will be on Wednesday, 21 September 1983
at 1015 in Room 7-E-62. CIA Headquarters. Please have your clearances passed
and call with names of the attendees by noon,
20 September 1983. (U)
3. I also encourage you to phone in suggestions for the agenda and
proposals to make opening presentations. It would be helpful to have your
comments for the next meeting by Monday, 12 September 1983. (U)
Attachment
Warning Report
42444
Hans Heymann, Jr.
CL BY SIGNER
DECL OADR
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The Director of Central Intelligence
WashingtonA/C20505
National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
THROUGH : National Intelligence Officer for Warning
FROM
SUBJECT
Hans Heymann, Jr.,
National Intelligence Officer At Large
19 August 1983
NIC No. 5948-83
Monthly Warning Assessment: Western Europe
West Germany: Peace Movement and INF
1. The next several months will witness a steady increase in anti-INF
demonstrations, peace camp activities, and the attempted blockade of US
military installations. There is a general consensus among analysts that the
bulk of these actions will be free of violence and that they will not dissuade
the Kohl government from implementing the deployment schedule this fall.
However, a number of uncertainties bear watching:
-- Media coverage is likely to overplay the confrontational
aspects of anti-INF actions, especially those involving
Americans.
In spite of the uncertainties, most analysts suspect that the size and
momentum of the movement may have peaked -- some estimates show roughly
100,000 activists and 1-2 million sympathizers. There could, however, be as
many as 10,000 members of small, radical, autonomous groups that could be
planning more violent actions. Ironically, the smooth handling of recent
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demonstrations by German and US authorities could inspire radicals to stage
highly provocative actions against military installations and personnel. In
this regard, the NATO Reforger military exercise this October could provide an �
opportunity for terrorist groups to attack small, dispersed US military units
in the Frankfurt area.
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West Europe/Central America
3. Analysts detect little change in West European attitudes toward
Central America and US policies in the region. Publics remain ill-informed
and dependent on news coverage that focuses on the US military intervention in
Central America. Although a leftist minority has seen fit to integrate
criticism of US Latin American policies into peace movement themes, the issue
is not a salient one to most West Europeans. Moreover, West European
governments are by no means united in their views on US Central American
policies and have struck noticeably different postures. The lowest common
denominator on Central America reflected at the recent EC Summit appears to be
that:
Central America's problems are primarily economic and
social.
A military solution in Central America does not exist.
US attempts to cast Central American conflicts in an
East/West context will be self-fulfilling.
These sentiments, however, will probably not translate into greater European
pressure on the US. Most governments -- and even the Socialist International
-- have become more disillusioned with the record of the Nicaraguan government
and have become generally less outspoken on Central American problems.
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Hans Heymann, Jr.
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