CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/07/31

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05973577
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: July 31, 1952

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� SECURITY FORMATION
31 July 1952
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
Office of CurrenfIntelligence
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMAR Y
GENERAL
1. Stalin reportedly accepts division of Germany (page 3).
SOVIET UNION
2. Southern Kurils regiment may have MIG-15's (page 3).
FAR EAST
3. Letourneau's promise of secession rights to Associated States
censored (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Shah and Court fear National Front reprisals (page 5).
5. Bilossadeq thoroughly discouraged over Iranian finances (page 5).
6. Communists stand to benefit from Iranian riots (page 6).
7. Maraghi reportedly arrested in attempted coup against Egyptian
Army (age 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
8. Portuguese Defense Minister may be removed over question of
military expenditures (page 7).
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GENERAL
1. Stalin reportedly accepts division of Germany:
talian Socialist leader Nenni reportedly
as told by members of the Soviet Polit-
uro entourage that Stalin regarded the
resent exchange of notes on Germany as
futile, and that Germany faces continued division and a new "equa-
tion of forces" to be determined by the success of both sides in re-.
arming the Germans.
Apparently taking his cue directly from
Stalin, Nenni voiced the opinion that Germany was not necessarily
the greatest danger spot, but that it could be Japan, Iran or some
other country.
Comment: The Soviet Union will probably
continue its propaganda campaign for German unity, at the same
time proceeding with the satellization of East Germany.
SOVIET UNION
2. Southern Kurtls regiment may have MIG-15's:
a Tenth Air Army
fighter regiment based in the southern
Karils, previously noted undergoing jet
conversion training, may now have re-
ceived MIG-15's. Twenty-five MIG-15's were scheduled to fly
from Sokol airbase on Sakhalin to Tennei air field on Iturup Island
between 11 and 23 July and apparently were not to return.
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Comment:
1 The omission of return-flight
schedules for the jet aircraft suggests that they were being ferried
as part of a re-equipment program.
Seven of the nine fighter regiments on
Sakhalin have been totally or partially re-equipped with jet planes
during the past year. There are only two fighter regiments known
to be in the Kurt's.
FAR EAST
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Letourneau's promise of secession rights to Associated States censored:.
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Referring to Letourneaut s 17 Iune statement
in Washington that the French Union' was "not
a prison" and that its member states would
eventually have the right to secede, a mem-
ber of the American Embassy in Saigon pointed out to a high French
official that the text of these remarks had not been published in Indo-
china and apparently not in France. The official replied that these
statements could not be placed on public record because President
Auriol had wired to Letourneau while the latter was still in Washington
and expressed concern over them.
Comment: Letourneaut s remarks were
widely publicized in the United States during his negotiations in Wash-
ington as evidence that France had adopted a more liberal colonial
policy. Censorship of Letourneauls declaration suggests that the
French Government's position is still fundamentally at variance with
the Vietnamese nationalist demands for full independence.
The French always have conceived of the in-
dependence of the Associated States "within the French Union' and
apparently want to delay clarification of this issue until the military
situation has been settled.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Shah and Court fear National Front reprisals:
Members of the Iranian royal family are
demoralized and openly critical of the Shah
for his failure to support ex-Prime Mini-
ster Qavam,
/ Ambassador Henderson
reports that the Queen Mother and Princess
Ashraf are planning to leave Iran.
The National Front has criticized the Shah's
e Minister's son has predicted a "clean sweep
of courtiers from the Shah's palace."
According to Minister of Court Ala, the Shah
considers it unwise to meet with foreign representatives at this time.
Comment: The Shah apparently fears that
any contact with foreigners would arouse farther resentment against
him.
The Queen Mother and other members of the
royal family have actively supported Qavam, and they probably expect
National Front reprisals.
5. Mossadeq thoroughly discouraged over Iranian finances:
Mossadeq has given up hope of obtaining
financial aid from the United States, ac-
cording to Minister of Court Ala. Since
assistance could not be expected from Great
Britain, Ala added, the Prime Minister was thoroughly discouraged
and did not know how to cope with Iran's critical financial situation.
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Ala intimated that Iran would go Communist
if it did not receive aid from the United State&
Comment: _m_.4cleci has frequently used the
threat of Communism to support his requests for American aid.
6. Communists stand to benefit from Iranian riots:
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The Shah's lack of leadership and
his indecision during Qavam s short term of office seriously damaged
the ruler's prestige and weakened his command of the army. Con-
servative political leaders will no longer be able to displace Mossadeq.
Should the Prime Minister be removed from
the scene, the National Front would probably break into small factions,
with many members defecting to the Tudeh. Because of Tudeh-insti-
gated riots and propaganda, anti-American sentiment has risen sharply.
Comment: The Nationalists' refusal to co-
operate with the Communists following the rioting suggests that the
Tudeh will derive little immediate advantage from its collaboration
with them. The Tudeh, however, gained strength and experience
from the riots.
Tudeh success in turning nationalist sentiment
against the United States has increased the likelihood that the US mili-
tary missions will be withdrawn. The consequent weakening of the
effectiveness of the army, the lowered prestige of conservative elements,
and the inherent weakness of the nationalist coalition all contribute to the
Tudeh potential for action at a future date.
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7. Maraghi reportedly arrested in attempted coup against Egyptian Army:
Former Minister of Interior Maraghi was
reportedly arrested on 26 July because of
his involvement in a Palace attempt to use
the Egyptian police in a counter-coup
against tne Nap!) army clique.
the revela-
tion of the Palace-inspired plot was responsible for the arrest of
leading police officers, as well as for the army's 26 July encircle-
ment of the King's residence and Nagib's subsequent demand that
Farouk abdicate. Nagib charged that the King had broken faith with
the army, which he had agreed to support in return for retaining his
throne.
Comment: The army's reported action
against Maraghi and the police is further evidence of Nagib's suc-
cess in consolidating his control of Egypt's internal affairs.
The extent of Nagib's political ambitions will
probably be indicated when the composition of the Regency Council is
revealed.
WESTERN EUROPE
8. Portuguese Defense Minister may be removed over question of military
expenditures:
Portuguese Defense Minister Santos Costa
will soon be replaced by Theotonio Pereira,
former Ambassador to the United States,
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Credibility is lent to this report by the re-
fusal of Premier Salazar and some cabinet ministers to underwrite
what they feel are overly ambitious defense plans, and by growing
apprehension that Portugal's interests are being neglected by the
major NATO powers.
The American Army Attache in Lisbon
further comments that Santos Costa's removal would provide Salazar
the necessary face-saving gesture if Portugal should decide to re-
nounce some or all of its NATO commitments.
Comment: Santos Costa has been the chief
proponent of military cooperation with the other Western powers.
Although Theotonio Pereira is personally friendly to the United States,
his replacement of Santos Costa could presage a drastic revision of
Portugal's relations with the United States and NATO. Portugal has
already intimated that it might leave NATO if its demands for military
equipment are not met
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