CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/07/30

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05973578
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: July 30, 1952

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, 30 July 1952
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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Office of Currenf n Intelligece
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SECUE INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Stalin's reported views on Italian politics (page 3).
SOVIET UNION
2. Stalin reported in excellent health (page 3).
FAR EAST
3. Comment on Peiping's possible reaction to British decision on
former Chinese aircraft (page 4).
4. French official in Indochina expresses deep pessimism (page 4).
5. British official disturbed over situation in Thailand (page 5).
6.
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WESTERN EUROPE
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7. West Germany decides to develop nonstrategic trade with Orbit
(page 6).
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GENERAL
1. Stalin's reported views on Italian politics:
In his recent interview with Italian Socialis13.3(h)(2)
leader Nenni, Stalin expressed particular
interest in the possibility of the defeat of
De Gasperi in next year's election and the in-
troduction of a left-wing government. Stalin reportedly declared
that Nenni's idea of a neutralized Italy protected by a US-USSR guar-
antee was out of the question, but suggested that an Italian-Soviet
nonaggression pact was a suitable goal.
Because of Italy's strong Communist party
and strategic position, and because of the Soviet view that resistance
to Communism in the Mediterranean area generally may be shaken by
events in Iran and North Africa, the Kremlin, Ambassador Kennan
believes, hopes to use Italy for driving a wedge into the Atlantic Pact
nations.
Kennan ascribes the intense Soviet interest
in Nenni to a possible Moscow preference, should a Socialist-Com-
munist combination win the spring elections in Italy, that Nenni take
over as premier while the Communists consolidate their position.
Comment: Currently the De Gasperi center
coalition has the support of about 51 percent of the electorate, the
Socialists and Communists 37 percent, and the rightist factions 12
per cent.
SOVIET UNION
2. Stalin reported in excellent health:
According to Ambassador Kerman, Nenni 3.3(h)(2)
gained the impression at his recent interview.
with Stalin that the Soviet leader is in ex-
cellent physical and mental health and well
abreast of the political situation in Italy. Nenni ridiculed rumors
that Stalin did not exercise complete authority over the Politburo. The
Italian considered Malenkov to be Stalin's most likely successor.
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FAR EAST
3. Comment on Peiping's possible reaction to British decision on former
Chinese aircraft:
Peiping's reaction to the British decision to
award the 40 aircraft impounded at Hong Kong to the Chennault-
Willauer interests is expected to be prompt. Last year when the
Hong Kong government requisitioned a 15,000-ton oil tanker claimed
by both communists and Nationalists, Peiping retaliated by requisi-
tioning the Chinese properties of the British Asiatic Petroleum Cor-
poration.
At the present time, Peiping can increase
its already exorbitant financial demands against British firms and
thus hinder the plans of these firms to settle all claims and withdraw
from China.
4. French official in Indochina expresses deep pessimism:
The top French civil official in Tonkin,
Lamarque, has told the American Consul
in Hanoi that Letourneau has accomplished
nothing since his return to Indochina and
that his lack of leadership has rendered hopeless the task of the re-
maining French civil officials.
The French official also stated that Bao Dai
was "for nobody but Bao Dai" and that it had long been obvious that
he was a failure.
Comment: This criticism of Letourneau
has been expressed by other sources. While most French officials
have little respect for Bao Dai, they still believe he is useful as an
Intermediary for dealing with the Vietnamese leaders.
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5. British official disturbed over situation in Thailand:
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In a conversation with American officials 3.3(h)(2)
in Singapore, the British Ambassador to
Thailand expressed discouragement over
the internal situation in that country. He
fears that it will become increasingly
difficult to keep Thailand in the Western bloc! 3.3(h)(2)
1
While conceding that Police Director Gen-
eral Phao is a "strong-arm" opportunist, the Ambassador believes
that he is the best of present Thai leaders.
Comment: The ruling clique has been
systematically plundering the Thai economy, and certain members,
Including General Phao, have reportedly been in contact with Peiping
and local Communists.
The American Enibassy in Bangkok has re-
peatedly expressed grave doubts as to General Phao 3.3(h)(2)
EASTERN EUROPE
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WESTERN EUROPE
7. West Germany decides to develop nonstrategic trade with Orbit:
The West German Economics Ministry
has informed the Allied High Commission-
ers that the Federal Republic has decided
to develop as much trade as possible with
the Soviet bloc, without, however, violating COCOM or Battle Act
restrictions. Bonn will attempt to negotiate trade agreements with
the countries with which it does not now have them, and where un-
successful, it will try other methods.
The American High Commissioner's office
in Bonn believes that this decision was motivated by the desire of
business and government circles to regain traditional markets, and
may also be ascribed to a partial propaganda success of the Moscow
Conference and to the anticipation of a contraction of Western markets.
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