CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/08/03

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05973580
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: August 3, 1952

Approved 2019/2iii80519.7359\0..)
SEC INFORMATION
3 August 1952
Copy No. 53
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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TY INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
I. French official reports on Chinese economy and morale (page 3).
2. Viet Minh reported weakening in South Vietnam (page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3, Former Iranian Chief of Staff attacks National Front for Tudeh
collaboration (page 4).
4. Maher reportedly threatened to resign over question of Egyptian
Army control (page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
5. Closing of Allied autobahn to Berlin expected (page 5).
6. French "anti-Communist" peace movement seeking British and
American labor support (page 6).
7. Belgian Prime Minister disturbed by controversy over conscription
period (page 7).
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1.
FAR EAST
reports on Chinese economy and morale:
\ left China in late July,
sees "no hope" for foreign trade and
business interests in China. He states
that the Communist administration is effective, but that com-
merce and industry are "completely ruined."
He also reports that the Chinese populace
is apathetic toward the regime and toward the Korean conflict in
particular.
Comment: There is no evidence that the
strength of the Peiping regime has been seriously reduced by the
current economic depression. The depression is acute among pri-
vate businessmen, but agricultural production and the output of state-
operated heavy industries are at comparatively high levels.
Other sources have also reported popular
apathy in China recently.
2. Viet Minh reported weakening in South Vietnam:
Desertions of key personnel from Viet Minh
security units in South Vietnam are increas-
ing./
French service or into hiding.
j Deserters are going into
In the western sector of South Vietnam, the
serious resistance to French operations is impossible
Decause UI tne weariness and indifference of Viet Minh troops. 3.3(h)(2)
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Comment: Actually there has recently been
an increase in Viet Minh guerrilla warfare in this sector. However,
if this report is true, the French may soon be able to shift some
forces north to the Tonkin delta.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Former Iranian Chief of Staff attacks National Front for Tudeh
collaboration:
Iranian Chief of Staff Garzan,3
stated that National Front leaders
had "at last removed the mask from their
faces" and allied themselves with the Tudeh. He warned that National
Front propaganda attacks against the army and high authorities were 3.3(h)(2)
creating a dangerous situation.
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Comment: This
emons ra es the army's
loyalty to the Shah and its opposition to the National Front at that time.
Qavam, however, resigned the same day, and Garzan was removed as
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Chief of Staff two days later.
Reports from the American Embassy since
the reappointment of Mossadeq indicate that the National Front is
making increased efforts to control the army, whose morale is said
to be declining.
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4. Maher reportedly threatened to resign over question of Egyptian Army
control:
Egyptian Prime Minister Ali Maher report-
edly threatened to resign on 30 ,Tuly over
the army's insistence that two of its candi-
dat es be appointed to cabinet posts. As a
compromise, howeversone of the army's candidates was made chair-
man of the new "Purification Committee, " and the other, Colonel
Mohanna, became Minister of Communications.
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rnmTent:
the largely unknown army group which 3.3(h)(2)
forced Farouk's abdication continues to be the determining factor in
the present situation. Any action against the Wafd is certain to arouse
determined opposition from that party.
Colonel Mohanna reportedly held his cabinet
post onl y three days. His appointment appears to have been an army
maneuver to "legalize" his position on the Regency Council.
WESTERN EUROPE
5. Closing of Allied autobahn to Berlin expected:
Both the West German Transport Ministry
and American officials now believe that the
Helmstedt-Berlin autobahn will probably be
closed for "repairs" around 1 September.
cranes and repair materials are being assembled near the Elbe River
bridge, and a German truck driver was recently told by a Russian
officer that the road would soon be closed.
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Comment: Although the closing of the
Helmstedt autobahn would block all highway access to Berlin by Allied
nationals, three roads would still be available for German use.
This move would come at a time when the West
Berlin stockpiling program is expected to be severely hampered be-
cause of "repairs" to the main canal and low water in the secondary
canal. Soviet authorities have not yet replied to the Allied request
for five additional daily trains to Berlin to compensate for the closing
of the main canal.
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6. French "anti-Communist" peace movement seeking British and American
labor support:
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Leon Iouhaux, the prominent French Socialist
trade union leader and head of the recently
formed "anti-Communist" peace movement,
Fighting Democracy, plans to visit Great
Britain and the United States in September in order to solicit labor
backing, which he considers indispensable to the new movement's
success. Reportedly he has the support of President Auriol and eight
Cabinet Ministers and is scheduled to meet American labor leaders at
a dinner in Washington arranged by Ambassador Bonnet.
/Jouhaux intends to block the circulation of a left-wing mani-
festo against the German contractual agreement, and hopes with the
aid of British labor to organize demonstrations against the forthcoming
World Peace Congress in Vienna.
Comment: In mid-July the Embassy showed
considerable skepticism about the effectiveness of Fighting Democracy
as an anti-Communist force. Dolivet was formerly a Comintern agent,
and another of its promoters has been a prominent fellow traveler.
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American officials in Bonn reported on 24ly
that, according to a German Socialist leader, AF of L representatives
in Paris intend to attack Fighting Democracy and Jouhaux for his
"collaboration" with it.
7. Belgian Prime Minister disturbed by controversy over conscription
period: 3.3(h)(2)
The Belgian Prime Minister fears that recent
demonstrations against retention of the 24-
month conscription period are wrecking army
morale and can "definitely lead to a general
strike." American officials in Brussels be-
lieve that the gravity of the situation is indicated by the Prime Minis-
ter's asking them to urge Socialist leaders to cease agitating the issue.
The Prime Minister states that unless the
other EDC countries adopt a 24-month military service period'before
the Belgian Army maneuvers end in late September, Belgium will re-
duce its 24-month periOd.
Comment: Since there is no possibility that
France and Italy will increase their 18-month conscription periods at
this time, the issue for the Belgian Government has become one of
announcing the reduction at such a time as to avoid further popular dis-
orders and to minimize the Cabinet's loss of prestige.
The 24-hour national protest strike for 9 August,
announced by the Socialist Federation of Labor on 2 August, is unlikely
to have effects much more serious than those of the sporadic token strikes
which have already occurred,
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