CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/08/05

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05973581
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: August 5, 1952

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SEC INFORMATION
5 August 1952
Copy NO. 53
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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DATEM*71REVIMER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
I. Iranians reportedly planning to attend "Leipzig Economic
Conference"(page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Increased Chinese role in air defense of Yalu River suggested
(page 3).
3. Reports on China border situation alarm Burmese Commander
(page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. National Front moves to control Iranian armed forces (page 4).
5. Egyptian Prime Minister outlines his program (page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
6. French-German talks on Saar leave hope for settlement (page 6).
7. Comment on Chuikov protest on German interzonal trade
restrictions (page 6).
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GENERAL
1. Iranians reportedly planning to attend "Leipzig Economic Conference":
an Iranian com-
mittee headed by a delegate to the Moscow
Economic Conference is preparing to at-
tend a "Leipzig Economic Conference" scheduled for early Septem-
ber as a follow-up to the Moscow conference.
Comment: The international trade fair
at Leipzig, scheduled for 7 to 17 September, will afford an oppor-
tunity for renewed Soviet trade propaganda. East German broad-
casts have claimed that the fair will permit Western representatives
to see that the Soviet bloc nations "are ready to trade in all directions"
FAR EAST
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Comment: The burden of day and night defense
of the Yalu River in the past has rested almost exclusively on Soviet
MIG-15 units and on the Soviet early-warning and GCI net.
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This newly-noted night activity on the Chinese
early-warning net,
may signal the beginning of a greater CCAF
role in the air defense of the Yalu River.
3. Reports on China border situation alarm Burmese Commander:
4.
that he was alarmed over reports from his
agents on the Burma-Yunnan border and
suspected that the "Communists may be up
to soniething." He plans to make a special trip to that area within
a few days to investigate the situation.
The attache believes that any Chinese Com-
munist build-up on the border would be a threat to Chinese Nationalist
troops in that area rather than to the Burmese Government.
Comment: There are believed to be 20,000
to 30,000 Chinese Communist troops in southwestern Yunnan. Recent
reports of a movement into Burma of three Chinese-trained Burmese
Communist regiments, possibly accompanied by a small number of
Chinese Communist troops, may have caused Ne Win's concern.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
National Front moves to control Iranian armed forces:
Deputy Minister of Defense
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that there will be no radi
fling of senior military officers.
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however, that the Shah has agreed to
he appointment of Mossadeq's cousin, Briga-
dier General Amini, as acting Chief of Staff.
He comments that this appointment of a rela-
ively junior officer will make the position of
senior officers extremely difficult,
that there 3.3(h)(2)
is .some talk of a coup among senior officers. He believes that a
coup would have little chance of success once the National Front has
placed its supporters in key army positions.
5. Egyptian Prime Minister outlines his program:
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Prime Minister Ali Maher has told Ambassa-
dor Caffery that he will not allow the Wald-
controlled Parliament to be reconvened. He
intends to discredit the Wafd, which he be-
lieves already shows signs of decay. Elections will be postponed for
six months to give him time to form a new political party.
Maher also outlined agrarian and social
reforms. He does not expect to resume negotiations with the British
at present. He indicated, however, that he does not disapprove of
participation in a Middle East defense organization and hopes that the
United States will help equip the Egyptian Army.
Maher characterized some of the leaders of
the military coup as hot-headed and impractical, but felt he could
control them.
Comment: Wafd leaders are reportedly dis-
appointed with developments during the past several days. The Wald,
with the only well-established political organization in Egypt extending
down to village level, will not easily be outvoted even if elections are
postponed to permit the development of a new party.
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WESTERN EUROPE
6. French-German talks on Saar leave hope for settlement:
According to high French Foreign Office
officials, exploratory conversations on
1 August between Foreign Minister Schu-
man and West German Under Secretary
of State Hallstein showed that the German position on the Saar
leaves room for compromise. Schuman apparently did not reject
the German suggestion that some French territory be ceded to a
Europeanized Saar, but did point out the political and constitutional
problems involved.
Hallstein voiced a preference for placing the
Saar under the High Authority of the Schuman Plan, whereas Schuman
wants the Council of Europe to be responsible for the Saar's foreign
relations. The talks are to be resumed on 7 August.
Comment: In urging that the Council of
Europe handle the Saar's foreign relations, Schuman anticipates that
it will probably be the less aggressive organization and hence less
inclined to check French dominance in the territory.
According to the Saar Minister of the Interior,
Schuman had previously expressed pessimism regarding the negotia-
tions with Hallstein and had favored direct talks with Adenauer.
7. Comment on Chuikov protest on German interzonal trade restrictions:
The note from Soviet Control Commissioner
Chuikov protesting Western "interference" in trade between East and
West Germany, delivered on 1 August, the same day a new interzonal
trade agreement was signed, suggests an effort to justify measures to
reduce traffic between West Berlin and the Federal Republic. It also
reflects dissatisfaction with the amount of strategic items East Ger-
many will be able to obtain under the new agreement.
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The note is in line with previous Soviet efforts
to blame the West for interzonal trade restrictions and to capitalize on
the discontent of West German businessmen. It may have been deliv-
ered in anticipation of the closing of the Berlin-Helmstedt autobahn and
subsequent Western countermeasures. The protest could thus be lay-
ing the groundwork for charges that the West is precipitating a new crisis.
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