CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/08/17

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05973593
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: August 17, 1952

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Office of Current Intelligence
SECURITY4NFORMATION
17 August 1952
Copy No. 57
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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DAVItgiegn. REVIEWER: 3.5(c)
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SEC INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
SOVIET UNION
1. MIG-15 flights to Kurils continue (page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
2. Shah reportedly accepts subordinate position in Iran (page 3).
3. Dissensions reported within the Wafd Party (page 4).
EASTERN EUROPE
4. Tito discusses plans for military talks with Greece and Turkey
(page 4).
WESTERN EUROPE
5. Allies plan course of action if Berlin transportation systems are
cut (page 5).
6. Increased defense support allocations to Italy urged (page 6).
7. Denmark disturbed over Soviet pressure in Baltic (page 7).
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SOVIET UNION
1. MIG-15 flights to Kurils continue:
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the ferrying of
MIG-15's from Sakhalin to the Kurils, which
was first noted on 11 July, continued through
8 August with a total of 63, and possibly 68,
flights.
Comment: The two 10th Air Army fighter
regiments based in the Kurils may now be almost fully equipped with
jet aircraft. There has been no apparent shift of the nine Sakhalin-
based fighter units to the Kurils.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
2. Shah reportedly accepts subordinate position in Iran:
The Shah is reconciled to a subordinate
role in Iranian affairs,
The Chief of Staff no longer reports to the
Shah, and he is not consulted on army appointments or transfers.
The Shah's policy now is to keep the Na-
tional Front as a coherent unit and he. is determined to give un-
qualified support to Mossadeq. His advisers are urging him to
support the more moderate elements of the National Front, who are
best able to discourage Kashani from any alliance with the Tudeh.
Comment: Acceptance by the Shah of this
subordinate role would remove nearly all possibility of an army
coup against Mossadeq. The Shah is still in a position, however,
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to give useful support to Mossadeq in his struggle with the increas-
ingly powerful extremist group led by Kashani.
3. Dissensions reported within the Wafd Party:
Former Senate President Al Urabil. now 3.3(h)(2)
chairman of the Wafd Party's internal purge
committee, is in conflict with top Wald
, leaders Nahas and Serageddin over the use
and direction of the committee, 3.3(h)(2)
Al Urabi is insisting that Nahas delegate him tun
authority to expel any member of the party, including Nahas himself.
if warranted. 3.3(h)(2)
Comment: Since the return to Egypt of
Nahas and Serageddin from Europe in apparent expectation that the
Wafd would again come to power following Farouk's abdication,
their relations with the military regime have not been good. The
army group has indicated ,that it is not satisfied with the extent to
which these leaders have eliminated corruption from Wafd ranks.
A split within the Wafd at this time might
destroy its politically preeminent position.
EASTERN EUROPE
4. Tito discusses plans for military talks with Greece and Turkey:
Marshal Tito has informed Secretary of
the Army Pace that relations with Greece
and Turkey are steadily improving and
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that the forthcoming visit of a Yugoslav military delegation to Athens
will be followed shortly by a similar visit to Ankara. Tito repeated,
however, that at the present time no formal military pact is neces-
sary, though one could emerge quickly whenever required.
Ambassador Allen points out that there is
"much evidence" that the Yugoslav Government genuinely desires
closer relations with Greece and Turkey.
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WESTERN EUROPE
5. Allies plan course of action if Berlin transportation systems are cut:
The Allied Deputy Commandants in Berlin
have agreed to inform city authorities that
if the Communists stop elevated train service
to the west sectors of Berlin, no counter-
measures will e taken against the elevated or subway systems. In-
stead, passengers will be carried by all available buses and trains,
including about 30 Allied buses and 55 Allied trucks.
No decision was made by the Commandants
on action to be taken if the Communists continue running elevated
trains through West Berlin, but without stopping at West Berlin
stations.
If the Communists split the subway system,
the Berlin Senate will immediately prevent subway trains from leaving
the western sectors.
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Comment: Interruption of the Berlin trans-
portation system is expected by many American officials as one of
the next steps in Communist harassment of Berlin. The West is
reluctant to take measures against the elevated system because it
is part of the East German-owned state railway, on which Berlin's
rail connection with the West depends. The Berlin subway, how-
ever, is municipally owned.
6. Increased defense support allocations. to Italy urged:
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The American Ambassador in Rome esti- 3.3(h)(2)
mates that, at best, the democratic parties
in Italy can obtain only a narrow popular
majority in next year's national elections,
and that the entire postwar American investment of $2,250,000,000
is now in jeopardy. He adds that early allocation of $50,000,000
as the first installment of defense support for fiscal year 1953 is
imperative to assure victory for the democratic coalition.
The total sum to be allocated to Italy in 1953
has not yet been determined, but American officials in Rome believe
that it should be "considerably more" than the $80,000,000 necessary
to redress the country's expected imbalance of payments.
Comment: Treasury Minister Pella has
stated that $200,000,000 in aid is essential if Italy is to meet its
NATO commitments in this fiscal year.
Present indications are that American
econotpic aid alone will be insufficient to ensure a democratic victory
in the 1953 elections, because the government has not solved basic
economic problems of high unemployment, low living standards,
and deflation.
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7. Denmark disturbed over Soviet pressure in Baltic:
he Danish Qovernment has requested its 3.3(h)(2)
mbassadors to inform the United States,
reat Britain and France of its concern
ver increasing Soviet pressure regarding
e Baltic island of Bornholm.
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The Danish Government feels that the pro-
tection of Bornholm and the maintenance of the Baltic as an open
sea are of concern to Denmark's NATO allies also. It hopes that
other NATO members may have "some constructive action to suggest."
Comment: Pravda has attacked the Danes
for allegedly agreeing to permit US air and naval units to use Bornholm
in the Baltic NATO maneuvers scheduled for September.
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