CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/08/22

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05973597
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: August 22, 1952

troNit5115Release: 2019/05/28 Ctif97
SECUJTY INFORMATION
22 August 1952
Copy No.57
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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AUTH: HR 0-2
DAZEREVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Chinese showed independence in tripartite Moscow trade
discussions (page 3).
SOVIET UNION
2. Ambassador Kennan comments on Party Congress (page 3).
FAR EAST
3. Suiho power plant believed nearly operational again (page 4).
4. Coordination of Chinese Communist air warning nets observgd
(page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Mossadeq warns security forces are losing control (page 5).
6. Proposed Egyptain land reforms present serious problems (page 6).
7. Moroccan issue becomes more threatening (page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
8. Comment on the death of Schumacher (page 7).
9. West German treaty ratification seen possible without Saar
solution (page 7).
10. French Government leaders seek to retain 1953 NATO goals (page 8).
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GENERAL
1. Chinese showed independence in tripartite Moscow trade discussions:
Chinese delegates in Moscow showed no sub- 3.3(h)(2)
servience to the Russians in early August
trade negotiations with the USSR and Finland,
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The Finnish delegate had been assured at the
outset by the Russians that they would have no difficulty in reaching
an agreement with the Peiping delegates. While the Finns were able
to reach an accord with the Chinese, he Russian3.3(h)(2)
have thus far failed.
Comment: The reportedly firm stand of the
Chinese trade delegates supports other evidence that Peiping does not
assume the subservient role of an East European Satellite,
SOVIET UNION
2. Ambassador Kennan comments on Party Congress:
Ambassador Kennan considers that the an-
nounced 19th Party Congress and proposed
changes in Party statutes probably mark a
major turning point in Soviet domestic poli-
tical affairs. However, noting that evidence is as yet scanty, he
recommends the greatest possible caution and reserve in the inter-
pretation of their significance.
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The Ambassador feels that the long delay in
holding a Congress could have only been a reflection of some special
and weighty internal political reason which has somehow been overcome
in recent months.
The Ambassador points Out that,whereas the
Politburo operates on the basis of theoretical equality and collective
responsibility, the new Presidium would, on the basis of existing
Soviet practice and terminology, elevate one of its members to the
position of chairman.
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FAR EAST
3. Suiho power plant believed nearly operational again:
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The Suiho hydroelectric power plant, damaged
by UN fighter-bombers in late June, may be
producing ower at the re-bombin level b
23 August,
he princi-
pal damage in the late June raids was inflicted on the transformers and
other surface equipment of the plant, while the generators, deep inside
the dam itself, were not damaged. 3.3(h)(2)
Comment: The Suiho power system was re-
portedly furnishing over 200,000 kilowatts of power to North Korea and
Manchuria prior to the late June air raids.
all power was out in that city for three days after the raids. Radio
Pyongyang, deriving its power from Suiho, was off the air for a consid-
erable period, but by 17 July the quality of Radio Pyongyang transmissions
had improved markedly. 3.3(h)(2)
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4. Coordination of Chinese Communist air warning nets observed:
Chinese Communist early warning nets in 3.3(h)(2)
Manchuria, Korea and China are now using
a common reporting procedure as well as
a common plotting grid, 3.3(h)(2)
The air warning nets 3.3(h)(2)
in nc uria, Korea and East China were using the same 3.3(h)(2)
systems in early July and communications nets in the Swatow and
and Canton areas have now adopted them.
Comment: The use of a common plotting
system is new evidence of the improvement of air defense techniques
by the Chinese Communist air force.
Although the Chinese Communist and Soviet
air defense systems overlap geographically, there is, as yet, no evi-
dence of their integration.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. 1Vlossadeq warns security forces are losing control:
for the Chief of Police,
offered to resign.
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Mossadeq informed the American Ambassador
through an intermediary on 19 August that the
situation in Iran was rapidly getting out of hand.
He said that he could not find a replacement
who was unable to handle developments and had
The Ambassador comments that the situation
is serious, and may become more so. He believes, however, that
Mossadeq may be exaggerating in order to obtain American assistance.
Comment:
the Chief of Police asserted that Mossadeq3.3(h)(2)
did not permit him to take forceful action against the Tudeh.
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6. Proposed Egyptian land reforms present serious problems:
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in many villages peasants
are refusing to pay their debts to landowners
and are demanding immediate possession of
the land, and that disturbances are already occurring. Property
owners and the urban "bourgeoisie" are united in opposing the reforms,
but there is such widespread fear of the army that no one dares public-
ly to criticize.
Comment:
the army group, realizing that precipitous action
on land reform could severely affect the economy, is restudying the
program. 3.3(h)(2)
The government reportedly hopes that the
land reform program will provide a foundation on which to build a poli-
tical party for the forthcoming elections. Since the amount of available
land is limited, no redistribution plan can remove peasant discontent.
7. Moroccan issue becomes more threatening:
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The American Legation in Tangier reports 3.3(h)(2)
that if the UN General Assembly refuses to
consider the Moroccan case, nationalist ex-
tremists may try to overthrow the moderate
leaders.
Moderate nationalists realize that French
forces could effectively suppress violence and that forceful methods
might prejudice their efforts. Communist infiltration of the national-
ist movement and the impatience of the young extremists have hitherto
been held in check, since the moderate leaders have been assuring the
Moroccans that results can be achieved through the United Nations.
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WESTERN EUROPE
8. Comment on the death of Schumacher:
The death of Kurt Schumacher, chairman of
the West German Social Democratic Party, removes a bitter foe of
Chancellor Adenauer and of major American objectives in West
Germany. Erich 011enhauer, 51-year-old vice-chairman of the
party and party wheelhorse, will probably be confirmed as party
leader by the Socialist Party Congress scheduled for 27 September.
The party congress is not expected to produce
any significant formal changes in party policies, but is likely to result
in a gradual increase in the influence of elements which desire to tone
down opposition to German rearmament and European unity moves.
Consequently, in the period preceding the crucial federal election
campaign, the party may be expected to give relatively more attention
to domestic issues, although not reversing its present foreign policy
stand.
9. West German treaty ratification seen possible without Saar solution:
Hermann Schaefer, vice-chairman of the
West German Free Democratic Party, states
that German ratification of the Bonn and Paris
treaties is certain even if the Saar issue is
not settled before the Bundestag debates.
Schaefer, however, attacked the latest French
proposals on the Saar as unacceptable in their present form, stating
that Europeanization is premature and will become feasible only after
the European Defense Community is operational. He suggested that
certain French Foreign Ministry officials may have raised the Saar
issue now to prevent ratification of the treaties.
Local American observers believe that
Schaefer accurately reflects the views of the majority of the government
coalition.
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10. French Government leaders seek to retain 1953 NATO goals:
A French Foreign Ministry spokesman has
told the American Embassy that Foreign
Minister Schuman and Defense Minister
Pleven are pressing the cabinet "to agree
firmly" to the 1953 French NATO goals tentatively set at the Lisbon
conference. He added that the Government is also seeking means
of getting all the NATO powers to commit themselves to firm re-
armament programs for more than one year at a time.
Comment: These two statements taken
together are an apparent bid for larger and longer-range American
commitments. If France adheres to the Lisbon rearmament goals
for 1953, the scheduled $6501000,000 of American aid will, accord-
ing to the most optimistic estimate of American officials in Paris,
cover only half of the resulting budgetary deficit.
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