CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/08/29

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05973603
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: August 29, 1952

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INFORMATION
29 August 1952
Copy No.5
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
SOVIET UNION
1. Comment on Zorin's appointment to United Nations (page 3).
2. Report of TU-4 landing at Velkal incorrect (page 3 ).
FAR EAST
3. Eleven Soviet MIG-15 jet fighter regiments now based in Manchuria
(page 3).
4. Comment on dissolution of Japanese Diet (page 4).
5. Tokyo believes Sino-Soviet talks may bring major conciliatory
gesture (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Egyptian Prime Minister outlines political program (page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Adenauer decides on earliest possible election date (page 5).
8. NATO plans threatened by limitations on US Air Force in France
(page 6).
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SOVIET UNION
1. Comment on Zorin's appointment to United Nations:
The appointment of Deputy Foreign Minister.
Zorin as chief of the Soviet UN delegation signifies little or no change
in the Kremlin's policies. Zorin's experience has been in Eastern
European and UN affairs. His reported connection with the Soviet
state security apparatus suggests that he will have responsibilities
beyond his UN functions.
Other recent shifts of ambassadors have been
in line with an established policy not to leave Soviet diplomats too long
in the same Western posts and have not been accompanied by significant
alterations of Soviet foreign policies.
2. Report of TU-4 landing at Velkal incorrect:
The report carried in the *Current Intelligence
Bulletin of 20 August, that a TU-4 medium
bomber ha4 landed at Velkal on the Chukotsk
Peninsula,
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information has established that the aircraft was an I-2 transport
subordinate to the 10th Air Army.
FAR EAST
3. Eleven Soviet MIG-15 jet fighter regiments now based in Manchuria:
eleven Soviet MIG-15 jet
fighter regiments are now based at five
southern Manchurian airfields.
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Comment: Until recently it was believed
that there were only nine Soviet-manned MIG-15 regiments in south-
ern Manchuria. If these eleven regiments have the normal comple-
ment of 37 aircraft, they represent more than 400 jet fighters.
4. Comment on dissolution of Japanese Diet:
The sudden decision bf Prime Minister
Yoshida to dissolve the Japanese Diet represents a concession to
growing pressure from within his own party for early general
elections. Although designed primarily to enhance the party's
position, the decision may have been partly motivated by Yoshida's
desire to stem the increasing strength of the rival Hatoyamafaction.
The Prime Minister's action will frustrate
the opposition's plan to use the current Diet session, which opened
on 26 August, for a concentrated attack on Yoshida's policies. It
also leaves the opposition parties with inadequate campaign prepara-
tions for the elections, now scheduled for 1 October.
The election will be the first test of strength
for the Liberal Party and for Yoshida's pro-American policies since
the conclusion of the peace treaty and the security pact. Wartime
leaders will also have an opportunity to regain Diet seats following
their forced retirement from politics under SCAP directives.
5. Tokyo believes Sino-Soviet talks may bring major conciliatory gesture:
According to Ambassador Murphy, there is3.3(h)(2)
a widespread belief in Tokyo that the present
Moscow talks will result in a major concili-
atory gesture toward the japanese people.
This might take the form of a proposal for a peace treaty, a mutual non-
aggression pact, a trade agreement, or a modus vivendi with the
Japanese Government, Japanese Communists have hinted at such a
possibility.
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Murphy believes it would be dangerous to
underestimate the effect of such a gesture in neutralizing the Ameri-
can position in Japan, where there is strong sentiment against involve-
ment in the East-West struggle. A joint Soviet-Chinese peace pro-
posal timed for the Japanese elections might endanger a realistic
rearmament program.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Egyptian Prime Minister outlines political program:
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Egyptian Prime Minister Ali Maher has in- 3.3(h)(2)
formed Ambassador Caffery that his program
includes, in the following order, solving the
country's internal problems, negotiating a
Middle East defense plan, and reaching an agreement with Israel.
The Ambassador, commenting on the possi-
bility of an accord with Israel, states that a previous Egyptian plan
to negotiate with the Israelis several years ago was blocked when it was
publicized in Tel Aviv.
Comment: Although the military regime in
Cairo is pressing for domestic reforms, there is little indication that
it wishes to complicate its internal problems at the present time by
raising emotional issues, particularly the question of Israel.
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Adenauer decides on earliest possible election date:
West German Chancellor Adenauer has
decided to schedule the 1953 Bundestag
election for June. This would be the
earliest possible date, since by law the
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election must be held between 7 June and 3.3(h)(2)
7 September.
The Christian Democratic Union, Adenauer's
party, reportedly feels that the present coalition parties will benefit
from ratification of the Bonn and Paris treaties. They also stand to
gain from the fact that more votes would probably be cast in June than
during the harvest.
In addition, it is argued that selective service
legislation, which would have to be passed by the newly elected Bundes-
tag, might be supported by the Socialists if the election showed public
approval of rearmament.
Comment: It still appears unlikely that the
Socialists would support conscription, unless they were to agree to
participate in a new government.
8. NATO plans threatened by limitations on US Air Force in France:3.3(h)(2)
The NATO build-up will be seriously affected
if the French Government persists in enforcing
the present 21,000-man ceiling for the US Air
Force in France, according to the American
Embassy in Paris. The Foreign Ministry has just informed the Em-
bassy that the government plans to maintain current restrictions until
the United States Senate ratifies the French-American status-of-forces
agreement.
Since NATO plans call for 40,000 men of the
US Air Force in France by spring, a Foreign Ministry representative
has agreed to seek a relaxation of his government's stand. This change
in position would be based on an exchange of notes with the United States
designed to meet possible criticism in the National Assembly.
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Comment: While the French Government's
concern over this matter seems based in part on domestic political
considerations, its current evasiveness on the whole question of the
air-base agreement suggests that it hopes to bargain wherever possi-
ble for additional American financial assistance.
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