CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/08/30

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05973604
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: August 30, 1952

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30 August 1952 3.5(c:
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Copy No. 5 7
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN SS. Ar
0 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: IS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: 02.-41 y
Office of Current IntelligenceAum HR702
DATE: &DAL IEVIEWER 3.5(c)
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
SOVIET UNION
1. French Communists speculate on Soviet Party Congress (page 3).
2. Twin-jet aircraft possibly identified in the 10th Air Army (page 3).
3. Comment on presence of Mongolian officials in Moscow (page 4).
FAR EAST
4. Viet Minh prepares for fall offensive (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5.
EASTERN EUROPE
6. First identification of bomber unit in Hungarian Air Force (page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Soviet official shows concern over reference of Austrian question
to UN (page 6).
8. Schuman reportedly more flexible on Saar issue (page 7).
9. Spain indicates desire to continue negotiations on bases (page 7).
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SOVIET UNION
1. French Communists speculate on Soviet Party Congress:
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Some French Communists and fellow-travelers
reportedly interpret the forthcoming Soviet
Party Congress as an indication that the
Kremlin anticipates a major showdown with
the United States.
Consequently they believe that the war econ-
omy of the Soviet-controlled world must be speeded; the Communist
parties in the USSR and abroad must be purged; and the Peace Parti-
sans and other "peace" agencies must be active.
They conclude that the division and destruction
of Atlantic economic and defense cooperation will continue as the main
Communist objective in Europe.
Comment: Pravda is currently emphasizing
the importance of strict party discipline at all levels and hinting at
the necessity of punishment for any suppression of self-criticism.
2. Twin-jet aircraft possibly identified in the 10th Air Army:
Soviet Far Eastern intercepts of 11 August
tentatively identified for the first time a
twin-jet aircraft as being subordinate to the
10thAirArmv. The nature of he activity
indicates
either test flying or twin-jet transitional training.
Comment: The 10th Air Army in the Far
Eastern Military District is currently estimated to have 280 conven-
tional light bombers. The 9th Air Army in the Maritime Military
District is estimated to have a total of 30 IL-28 twin-jet aircraft,
while the Soviet 5th Fleet Air Force is believed to be re-equipping
with TU-14 twin-jets.
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3. Comment on presence of Mongolian officials in Moscow:
The possibility that the Sino-Soviet conference
may devise a plan for integrating the economies of the Communist Far
Eastern countries with the USSR is suggested by the arrival in Moscow
of the Mongolian Prime Minister and his Deputy Minister of Foreign
Affairs. They were met by a delegation headed by Mikoyan, Vice
Chairman of the USSR Council of Ministers and Chairman of the Coun-
cil of Economic Mutual Assistance. Such a development would com-
plement the Soviet-East European economic bloc.
On arrival the Mongolian Premier commented
that the "new grand program of the next Five-Year Plan of the Soviet
Union would further promote and consolidate the economic, cultural
and administrative development" of Mongolia. This, together with
the fact that Mongolia's present Five-Year Plan expires this year,
suggests that the USSR is formulating not only a new Five-Year Plan
for Mongolia but, possibly in conjunction with the Chinese, an over-all
program for the Communist Far East.
A new Five-Year Plan for Mongolia would
probably stress the development of natural resources, particularly
mining, which would contribute to the development of the Lake Baikal
economic complex centered around Irkutsk.
FAR EAST
4. Viet Minh prepares for fall offensive:
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actions of Viet Minh military units
in north Vietnam indicate that preparations
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have begun for an October offensive. Although no major shifts of
divisions have occurred, there has been some regrouping of smaller
units, including artillery. A campaign in the "middle Tonkin area"
is being planned.
The source comments that there may be
an offensive in the northwestern sector of the Tonkin delta, with a
diversionary attack on the southern perimeter.
� NEAR EAST - AFRICA
EASTERN EUROPE
6. First identification of bomber unit in Hungarian Air Force:
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provided the first identification of a bomber
unit in the Hungarian Air Force. The mes-
sage, sent from Mezoetur, stated that the
ohna tyernmer vegimenE was moving from its home station.
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Comment: _ Previous to this report the
Hungarian Air Force was believed to have only fighter and ground-
attack aircraft. The recent re-equipment of some Soviet light
bomber units in Hungary with jet aircraft may have permitted the
transfer of the replaced Pe-2 aircraft to the Hungarian Air Force.
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Soviet official shows concern over reference of Austrian question to UN:
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Soviet Political Adviser Kudryavtsev, at a
meeting with Foreign Minister Gruber on
26 August, argued against submission of the
Austrian treaty question to the UN General
Assembly. He stated that the problem was beyond the competence of
the United Nations and that a hearing there would only further compli-
cate matters.
Kudryavtsev also observed that the "Austrian
Government must have known that an abbreviated treaty would be un-
acceptable to Moscow." He then expressed interest in Vienna's atti-
tude toward the old draft treaty.
Comment: At the time the Soviet Govern-
ment rejected the Western proposals for a short treaty, it also took
issue with the Austrian suggestion that the old draft treaty is no longer
acceptable to the Austrian Parliament. Kudryavtsev's inquiry with
respect to the old treaty could reflect Russian concern over the possi-
bility of losing valuable economic concessions as a result of its long
stalling on an Austrian settlement.
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8. Schuman reportedly more flexible on Saar issue:
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A French official close to both Schuman and
Pinay believes that failure to agree on a Saar
settlement now would not threaten ratification
of the EDC treaty, but that French concessions
vit respec o t eir economic position in the Saar would. Stating that
press accounts of the recent Schuman statements before the French
National Affairs Committee were inaccurate, he asserted that some
French territory might be ceded to a Europeanized Saar if "agreement
really depended only on this."
Comment: While the official's statements_
were ostensibly an attempt to clarify press reports attributing an un-
duly nationalistic stand to Schuman, they indicate a greater flexibility
in the French position than has lately been apparent.
Spain indicates desire to continue negotiations on bases:
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American negotiators were told by a Spanish
official on 27 August that if the United States
will provide "the necessary elements" for
the defense of Spain, the Franco government
ivill conclude an agreement for bases. Otherwise, Spain proposes that
mutual defense and economic aid agreements be signed now, without
prejudice to later negotiations for base rights, as a necessary condition
to receipt of the $125,000,000 already appropriated.
Comment: In early July Spain insisted that
it receive the $1259000,000 before signing any agreement. While still
demanding a high price for the bases, Spain now clearly shows that it
wants to continue negotiationsb
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