CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/09/07

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05973610
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: September 7, 1952

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SECURI FORMATION
7 September 1952
uopy NO. 57
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO 171?*
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. At
DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S Cant
NEXT REVIEW DATE: 2-42-0y
AUTH: HR 70-2
Office of Current Intelligence DATElf0449REVIEWER:
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP S ET
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SECU INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1. Effects on intensified bombing weighed by FECOM (page 3).
2. Murphy believes US policies might suffer at hands of Hatoyama
faction (page 3).
3. Reported Chinese aims in Moscow talks (page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA.
4. Chinese Communist units reported still in Indochina (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Mullah Kashani reportedly ready to act against Mossadeq (page 5).
6. Saudi Arabian Minister believes Kashani overrates his influence
(page 6).
7. Comment on Nagib's assumption of Egyptian Premiership (page 6).
8. General Nagib may visit Sudan (page 8).
WESTERN EUROPE
9. Comment on Western differences in Austrian treaty strategy
(page 8).
10. Vyshinsky reportedly urges neutrality upon Italy (page 9).
LATIN AMERICA
11. Comment on the Chilean presidential election (page 9).
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FAR EAST
1. Effects of intensified bombing weighed by FECOM:
3.3(h)(2)
The UN's program of intensified bombing of
North Korea, beginning with the raids against
power plants in late June, has had a "sub-
stantial effect on the enemy," the Far East
Command believes.
Reports from North Korea indicate that the
loss of electric power caused considerable disruption of both military
and civilian activities through early August.
Civilian morale, already lowered by the long
and costly war, has been subjected to additional strains by the mass
bombing. Rigid Communist control techniques, however, have counter-
balanced them.
The military has not suffered any material
lowering of morale. The enemy is still able to keep his front line units
supplied despite destruction of some arms plants and supply areas.
3.3(h)(2)
2. Murphy believes US policies might suffer at hands of Hatoyama faction:
Japanese Foreign Minister Okazaki advised
Ambassador Murphy on 5 September that the
Liberal Party will present a united front in
the election campaign, but simultaneously
admitted that the party's factional split is widening.
Okazaki stated that those around Hatoyama
"are utterly reckless in their pursuit of power and patronage" and
would exercise a harmful effect on Japanese foreign policy. The Ambas-
sador states that the more he sees of the Hatoyama faction and the oppo-
sition group the more he "wonders" if US policies would not suffer at
their hands.
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Comment: The two factions of the Liberal
Party are apparently undertaking the campaign with a working agree-
ment that the faction winning the larger number of seats will be given
control of the party.
3. Reported Chinese aims in Moscow talks:
3.3(h)(2)
3.3(h)(2)
he Chinese at the
Moscow conference will request extensive mili-
tary and economic aid, including a long-term loan, and additional shipping.
Some military items wanted by Peiping are equipment for more armored
and airborne divisions, 500 jet planes, and 60 submarines.
Peiping will request restitution of the Port
Arthur-Dairen area, but will be satisfied with nominal control. It de-
sires return of the Changchun railroad, but will agree to joint Sino-Soviet
operation for a stated number of years.
The Chinese hope to obtain Moscow's agree-
ment to a truce in Korea, to the timing of an invasion of Formosa, and
to the loan of 50,000 tons of shipping as well as Soviet naval and air
assistance for the invasion.
Comment: The Democratic League is a power-
less non-Communist party tolerated by the Peiping regime. It is doubtful
that a member of this group would know what is being discussed in Moscow.
The composition of the Chinese delegation to
Moscow indicates that the talks will be concerned primarily with economic
matters. 3.3(h)(2)
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Chinese Communist units reported still in Indochina:
3.3(h)(2)
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Chinese
Communist units which entered northwest
Tonkin over six weeks ago to aid the Viet Minh
against French-supported guerrilla tribesmen
are still there. They have not penetrated farther south, however, sug-
gesting that this is a local action rather than a pre-invasion move.
It is expected that the Chinese forces will
return to China about the middle of September, leaving one Chinese battal-
ion to assist the Viet Minh.
Indochina during 1952.
There have been three such incursions into
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Mullah Kashani reportedly ready to act against Mossadeq:
the present
in Tehran
Kashani expects Majlis support and will probably also have Tudeh cooper-
ation. The timing of the plan is not known but it is believed to call for
action shortly after Kashani's return.
3.3(h)(2)
Mullah Kashani notified Prime Minister . 3.3(h)(2)
Mossadeq before his departure for Mecca that
he will take matters into his own hands if the
government does not take measures "to remedy
situation," according to of a pro-British newspaper
3.3(h)(2)
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Kashani wishes to become the next prime min-
ister. His ultimate aim is to oust the Shah and become president of an
Iranian republic.
Comment: An anti-Mossadeq group in the Majlis,
composed of conservatives and followers of Kashani, sought American
support in August. Kashani also apparently has the support of several
street organizations which, combined with the Tudeh, couldhave a powerful
effect. Kashani's acceptance of Tudeh cooperation is probable, since he
has always maintained that he could easily control the Tudeh once he has
used it.
3.3(h)(2)
6. Saudi Arabian Minister believes Kashani overrates his influence:
Comment: Kashani, the acknowledged head of
the Iranian religious community, has claimed that he could influence the
Moslem world from North Africa to Pakistan to join in an anti-West crusade.
7. Comment on Nagib's assumption of Egyptian Premiership:
The forced resignation of Prime Minister Ali
Maher and General Nagib's assumption of the premiership, following the
arrest of important political figures in Cairo, has moved Egypt close to
complete military dictatorship.
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The military clique publicly stated that although
Nagib now heads the government, he will surround himself with civilians
in the new cabinet. It is doubtful, however, that Nagib will be able to
secure many competent civilians to accept appointment in a cabinet under
direct control of the army clique, whose members are generally inexperi-
enced in political and economic affairs. 3.3(h)(2)
The present crisis was foreshadowed by______
the army's impatience with Ali Maher 's de-
lay in adopting a land reform program. Maher's stalling was due in part
to pressure from Egypt's landowning group, which maintained that drastic
changes would upset the Egyptian economy. Maher presumably also rec-
ognized that the reform proposals might raise problems which he could
not solve.
Ambassador Caffery reported from Cairo on
5 September that Maher, reading the handwriting on the wall, has assured
him that he would soon be in a position to meet the army's demands for
action and had asked him to pass on these assurances to Nagib in the hope
of gaining a few days' grace. Caffery did this with little hope of success.
At that time, he reported, the army was considering a final effort to find
a civilian prime minister as an alternative to military rule.
Although some of Nagib's officers recognized
Maher's honesty and ability, the deciding factor in requesting Maher's
resignation was the apparent fear that the prestige gained in the July
coup might be lost through continuing delays.
The arrest of key political figures in Egypt is
the direct result of mounting charges by the army that the political parties
had failed to make a thorough purge of their ranks. Only last week Sec-
retary-General Serageddin of the Wafd Party, one of those taken into
custody, openly defied the army by declaring that the Wafd would await a
court order before dismissing more of its members. Serageddin's deten-
tion and the arrest of independents and former members of the palace
clique indicate that the army has no intention of compromising its objec-
tives in order to gain the support of any political group.
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8. General Nagib may visit Sudan:
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3.3(h)(2)
The British Foreign Office reports that General
Nagib and Prime Minister Ali Maher intend to
visit the Sudan within the next month or two.
The Foreign Office feels that in some ways such
a visit would be advantageous but that the question of timing should receive
careful consideration.
Comment: Maher's forced resignation will ob-
viously change these plans, but there is no reason to believe that Nagib,
despite his new duties as Prime Minister, will abandon them or lose in-
terest in the Sudan. Nagib's few cautious statements on this issue do not
clearly indicate what his position will be.
The new constitution, bringing almost complete
self-government to the Sudan, will go into effect in November unless the
two condominium powers agree on changes. Past British efforts to secure
Egyptian cooperation on the Sudan have been rebuffed.
3.3(h)(2)
WESTERN EUROPE
9. Comment on Western differences in Austrian treaty strategy:
Although the British and French Governments
followed the American lead in the 5 September note to the Soviet Union on
the Austrian treaty, there is strong evidence of differences on strategy.
Britain and France have accepted as "good tactics" the note's insistence
on negotiating from the short treaty draft, but show a willingness to aban-
don this stand and resume discussions on the old draft.
Britain and France do not accept the American
view that further concessions to the Soviet Union would not advance an Aus-
trian settlement and that the economic concessions previously offered are
probably no longer acceptable to either the Austrian or the American legis-
lature. The British have expressly stated their readiness to accept the
Soviet position on unagreed articles in the old draft.
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Since the Soviet Union probably prefers re-
newed four-power negotiations to a United Nations hearing on the Austrian
question, Western differences over the suitable price of an Austrian settle-
ment might provide opportunities for Soviet exploitation.
10. Vyshinsky reportedly urges neutrality upon Italy:
3.3(h)(2)
Foreign Minister Vyshinsky in late May idealized
the position of a "neutJval Italy" to the Italian Am-
bassador in Moscow,
He
pointed out that a change in Italy's course would put it in an advantageous
position, "economically as well as politically, "to obtain much more from
all concerned. Ambassador Di Stefano had no doubt that a warning to both
Italy and the Western powers was implied. 3.3(h)(2)
Vyshinsky also expressed interest in the pos-
sibility of direst negotiations between Italy and Yugoslavia on Trieste.
He emphasized that the USSR would reserve the right to oppose any settle-
ment arrived at without its agreement, and that the "temporary nature of
the present regime in Yugoslavia" does not affect the Soviet attitude re-
garding Trieste.
Comment: The new Italian Ambassador had
an interview with Vyshinsky on 24 May. Nothing is known of the nature of
the conversation, but this account is in line with Nenni's report that Stalin
offered a non-aggression pact if Italy would abandon its pro-Western poli-
cies and espouse neutrality.
LATIN AMERICA
11. Comment on the Chilean presidential election:
Since no candidate has obtained the necessary
majority in the Chilean election, the naming of a president rests with
Congress, which must choose between the top two candidates, Ibanez
and Matte. Although the Ibanez forces have little strength in Congress,
as against Matte's approximate 40 percent control, there are indications
that Congress will respect Ibanez' 47 percent plurality and select him.
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The very recent "go easy on Ibanez" attitude
on the part of the administration, in strong contrast with its previous
desire to smear him as linked with Peron, lends credibility to a reported
deal between Ibanez and the administration forces, which also control 40
percent of Congress.
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The Congress probably will not act until some-
time after mid-October. Should it not proclaim Ibanez president, a revolt
can be expected.
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