CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/09/13

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05973615
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: September 13, 1952

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SECURI NFORMATION
13 September 1952
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
Office of Current Intelligence
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. USSR apparently attempts to observe NATO exercises (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Chinese reportedly seek extensive Soviet military aid (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Burma asks United States to admit military mission (page 4).
SOUTH ASIA
4. Comment on failure of the latest Kashmir negotiations (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5.
6.
7.
Panikkar praises Wafd in Cairo (page 6).
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Israelis believe Turkish mediation might bring peace with
Egypt (page 6).
8. Eritreans may ask UN to intervene against Ethiopia (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
9. East Germans reportedly urge Soviet approval for army (page 7).
10. East German delegation to receive polite rebuff from West
German Government (page 8).
11. French press for firm US financial assistance commitment
(page 8).
12. Adenauer and Schuman see Saar Europeanization soon (page 9).
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GENERAL
1. USSR apparently attempts to observe NATO exercises:
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The captain of the Polish merchant ship Narvik,
now under charter to the Soviet Union, has re-
quested permission to receive cargo from the
Russian ship Tungas in the sheltered waters
of Skagen Roads or Aalbeck Bay at the north-
east ttto of Denmark on or about 15 Septemb er,
The reason given was that during the last transfer of
cargo in open water near Bear Island in theArctic Ocean, damage was
sustained by both vessels.
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comments that this is obviously an attempt to set up an observation
post near the area involved in the amphibious phase of the NATO 3.3(h)(2)
exercises.
Comment:
about 40 large Soviet trawlers in waters where NATO maneu-
vers were scheduled to take place. Other attempts have been made to
observe this area through daily visits of East German, Polish, and
Soviet craft.
FAR EAST
2. Chinese reportedly seek extensive Soviet military aid:
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Lnou En-lai mission in Moscow is seeking,
for delivery before December 1953, equip-
ment for 30 infantry divisions and 15 artillery
and armored divisions, 440 to 480 jet fighters, as well as two to four
heavy destroyers, six snorkel submarines, and other craft. The
mission has allegedly informed Peiping that some 1,500 aircraft, in-
cluding 500 MIG-15's, have been offered in exchange for China's
entire output of wolfram.
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Comment: These reports are probably
propaganda for low-level Chinese officials, and are principally of
interest as indicating that Communist cadres are being encouraged
to expect increased Soviet aid as a result of the Moscow talks.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Burma asks United States to admit military mission:
Burma has requested the United States to 3.3(h)(2)
receive a military mission under the leader-
ship of General Ne Win, Burmese Commander
in Chief. The mission would arrive in late
September to study American military organization, explore possi-
bilities for the training of Burmese personnel, and arrange for the
procurement of military supplies.
Comment: This mission would be a radical
departure from Burma's policy of avoiding any semblance of military
relations with the United States. The proposal indicates that Burma may
be wavering in its neutral foreign policy.
SOUTH ASIA
4. Comment on failure of the latest Kashmir negotiations:
The failure of the latest Indo-Pakistani talks
in Geneva probably foreshadows increasing Pakistani stubbornness over
the Kashmir issue. Pakistan was most reluctant to engage in the
Geneva conversations, and is unlikely to participate in future talks
without first obtaining a major concession from India.
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5.
Since the UN Security Council cannot easily
drop the Kashmir issue, it will presumably be faced with the task of
drafting a resolution strong enough to ensure Indian and Pakistani
compliance with UN mediator Graham's most recent proposals, or
one suggesting new approaches to settling the dispute. That either
India or Pakistan would feel bound to abide by any such UN resolution
is doubtful.
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6. Panikkar praises Wafd in Cairo:
K. M. Panikkar, the Indian Ambassador-
designate to Cairo, is making no secret of
his opposition to the Egyptian military re-
gime. Even before presenting his creden-
tials, he has voiced strong sympathy for the Wafd, which "stood
unwaveringly behind the Indian Congress Party during its days of trial."
Ambassador Caffery adds that Panikkar's
press statements reflect the admiration for Communist China he
showed while Ambassador in Peiping. Panikkar was quoted in the
Egyptian press as stating that the "Chinese now live in prosperity and
stability unknown before."
7. Israelis believe Turkish mediation might bring peace with Egypt:
Several members of the Israeli parliament
believe that a peace with Egypt can best be
achieved through Turkish mediation. In
reporting this information, the Turkish Am-
bassador in Tel Aviv noted considerable
official optimism over the possibility of an eventual peace.
Israeli hopes had been raised, he noted, when
Prime Minister Ben-Gurion and Foreign Minister Sharett made un-
disguised peace offers to Egypt in their 18 August speeches in
parliament.
Comment: A peace approach was also made
on 22 August by the Israeli Charge in Paris to the Egyptian Charge.
There have been no reports of any Egyptian reactions, and there is no
indication that the officer clique in Cairo plans to alter Egypt's policy
of avoiding a peace agreement with Israel.
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8. Eritreans may ask UN to intervene against Ethiopia:
A group of Eritreans has informed Trygve
Lie that it intends to refer Ethiopian
violations of the UN resolution on federation
to the next General Assembly unless the
United Nations intervenes on its own initiative.
The alleged violations include the failure
to provide either a federal constitution or government, Eritreans
also reportedly fear that perennial bandit activity may be used to
justify Ethiopian military occupation.
Comment: This complaint was made on the
first day of federation and presumably represents the opinion of
Moslem elements bitterly opposed to it.
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9, East Germans reportedly urge Soviet approval for army:
The negotiations between East German
leaders and the Soviet Control Commission
on the "legal basis" for the establishment
of an East German national army have pro-
duced no results,
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!che Soviet Union has not decided on an East Ger-
man army even though East German leaders, who have made detailed
preparations for one, are pressing for an early decision.
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Comment: It is highly unlikely that the
expansion of paramilitary formations and the preparation for
"defensive forces" in East Germany have not had general Soviet _
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ably wish to proceed faster than the USSR considers desirable from
an international point of view.
10. East German-delegation to receive polite rebuff from West
German Government:
The decision of Hermann Ehlers,
President of the West German Parliament,
to receive but not to negotiate with
the East German delegation will have no
effect on the government's plans for
ratifying the Bonn and Paris treaties. Ehlers plans to receive
the Volkskammer delegation, accept their letter, and "wish them
God-speed on their return to East Germany."
Ehlers' decision, taken in concert with
spokesmen of the leading parties, is designed to deprive the East
German Government of any propaganda advantage and to counter
any charges that the Federal Republic is acting "under American
orders."
11. French press for firm US financial assistance commitment:
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Defense Minister Pleven emphasized to 3.3(h)(2)
Ambassador Dunn on 10 September the
importance of an early reply to Premier
Pinay's 8 August letter stating the French
assumption that the total US commit-
ment to support the 1953 military budget is $650,000, 000.
The Embassy believes that the French
are planning their annual report to NATO on the basis of this
amount, and warns that France must be informed as soon as
possible of the final decision on the maximum available. In view
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of congressional cuts in foreign aid, the Embassy suggests
that the French be assured of receiving between $500,000,000
and $575,000,000, the actual amount to be determined in
accordance with the French defense effort.
Comment: Offshore purchases, funds
allotted under the Moody amendment and any assistance in
Indochina would be in addition to this budgetary support.
12. Adenauer and Schuman see Saar Europeanization soon:
After a strictly private talk on 11
September, Chancellor Adenauer and
French Foreign Minister Schuman
expressed complete agreement that
all Saar problems could be worked out on a European basis.
French officials believe that a
decision was reached to urge the Saar Government to delay elec-
tions until February. German officials think that Adenauer
agreed to ask the pro-German Saar parties to base their program
on Europeanization.
German and French economic experts
believe that the monetary question will be the most difficult
problem, but feel that a solution would be greatly facilitated if
immediate steps were taken to create a federal monetary union
of the six Schuman Plan countries.
Comtnent: Adenauer and Schuman
were equally optimistic after the Saar talks last March, although
major problems had not been solved. A monetary union evolv-
ing from a Saar settlement could considerably advance European
integration.
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