NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06460903
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: March 16, 2022
• Document Release Date: January 20, 2016
• Case Number: F-2015-01950
• Publication Date: March 16, 1982

Approved for Release. 2015/12/21 006460903
1( , Central
T1 Director of
Inteffigence
cc C.D
1_
National Intelligence Daily
(Cable)
16 March 1982
eget
(b)(3)
Approved for Release: 2015/12/21 006460903
 Approved for Release: 2015/12/21 006460903
CENTRAL AMERICA:
//The Insurgent attack on San Salvador yesterday were
limited in scope and designed primarily to under the elections.
The Salvadoran armed forces' sweep operations near the depart-
mental capitals of San Vicente and Santa Ana have had mixed results.
Meanwhile, the cogoverning Christian Democrats are stepping up
verbal attacks on National Republican Alliance leader D'Aubuisson.
In Guatemala, conciliatory gestures by rightwing leader Sandoval
signals the end of resistance to the election of General Guevara.//
//The guerrilla
assaults
on three working class suburbs on the northern fringe of
the city. A major target was the San Carlos Barracks--
headquarters for the Army's First Brigade, but the
military was aided in repulsing the assault there when
some insurgent mortar rounds failed to explode. The
guerrillas also temporarily occupied a radio station,
attacked a mayor's office, and apparently damaged
severely a telecommunications facility before withdraw-
ing in the face of reinforcements by the armed forces.//
Comment:
People's Revolutionary Army,
bility for these actions,
(b)(3)
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
the (b)(1)
which has claimed responsi-
(b)(1)
are prob-
ably counting on the attacks to bolster their claim that
the government will not be able to provide minimal
security even in San Salvador on election day. The fact
that the guerrillas concentrated their activities in
three neighborhoods where they have long commanded support
suggests that they also hoped to boost the morale of
their supporters and revive their urban-based front
organizations.// (b)(3)
Salvadoran Military Offensives End
//The Salvadoran Army appears to
have had the most
success in San Vicente
where it forced
the guerrillas to
abandon a number of
camps.
(b)(1)
--continued
(b)(3)
' 1
-71*-9tEret
(b)(3)
Approved for Release: 2015/12/21 006460903
 Approved for Release: 2015/12/21 006460903
Armed forces disorganization,
especially lack of coordination between ground and air
units, however, prevented it from making greater head-
way.//
//Meanwhile, in Chalatenango Department, an insurgent
ambush of a military convoy killed and wounded nearly
30 soldiers and 18 civilians. Such attacks, more fre-
quent in recent months, are causing higher attrition
among military units.//
Comment: The Army is likely to continue its of
operations until shortly before the 28 March elec-
tions, when it will adopt a static defensive posture to
protect polling places and key transportation routes.
The insurgents now appear to be planning to take advan-
tage of the expected lull to concentrate on their own
offensive activity.
Christian Democratic Concerns
//The Christian Democrats have publicly accused the
ultraconservative National Republican Alliance of creating
an electoral climate of hatred and have insinuated that
party leader D'Aubuisson was involved in the assassina-
tion of popular Archbishop Romero in 1980. In a recent
communique, they likened D'Aubuisson to Hitler and
Mussolini.//
Comment: //The Christian Democrats are worried that
law-and-order themes and promises of a swift victory
over the insurgents have given D'Aubuisson's party elec-
toral momentum. By raising the Romero assassination,
they hope to put him on the defensive on the issue of
domestic violence.//
The Christian Democrats--to remain in power and to
preserve some of their reform programs--would likely
consider a postelection coalition but only with more
moderate rightist elements. They now apparently see
D'Aubuisson as their major political challenger and con-
tinue to suspect that elements in the generally conserva-
tive officer corps will abet his electoral effort.
(b)(3)
--continued
1-"Sfitteset....
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3),
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
Approved for Release: 2015/12/21 006460903
 Approved for Release: 2015/12/21 006460903
To Secret
(b)(3)
Postelection Tensions Ease in Guatemala
Rightwing leader Sandoval's party has ceased its
opposition to General Guevara's election and indicated
a willingness to participate in the government. Sandoval
may leave the country for a month or so to allow tensions
to abate. (b)(3)
Comment: These conciliatory gestures signal the
end of resistance to Guevara. Although the President-
elect is unlikely to grant a significant role to
Sandoval, the longtime nemesis of the Army high command,
he may offer government posts to some of Sandoval's
followers.
Nicaragua Announces Emergency Decree
The Nicaraguan Government issued a decree yester-
day suspending citizens' "rights and guarantees" for a
minimum of thirty days. Junta coordinator Daniel Ortega
cited the "aggressive plans" of the US in justifying the
action and implied that the recent sabotage of two
bridges near the Honduran border had US backing.
(b)(3)
Comment: The measure reflects mounting Sandinista
fears about US-sponsored pressure and will offer the
regime new opportunities to restrict the activities of
domestic moderates. (b)(3)
3
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
Approved for Release: 2015/12/21 006460903