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March 16, 2022
Document Release Date: 
July 22, 2016
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January 31, 1987
Approved for Release: 2016/03/23 C06496671 (b)(3) Director of Central Intelligence National Intelligence Daily Saturday 31 January 1987 TSecLop et rPAS Nin A7-696.1)f 31 January 1987 (b)(3) (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2016/03/23 C06496671 Approved for Release: 2016/03/23 C06496671 Special Analysis INDIA-PAKISTAN: Border Problems Indian Prime Minister Gandhi and Pakistani President Zia remain in regular contact through diplomatic Intermediaries and anticipate that talks this weekend will reduce border tensions. Military deployments by both sides, however, are reducing the time available for either nation to contain an Inadvertent clash before it erupts into full-scale hostilities. New Delhi, meanwhile, is taking advantage of the crisis to address domestic concerns. Although Gandhi and Zia project the mistrust that has long existed between India and Pakistan, they have established a better rapport than had previous leaders. Each probably has at least some confidence in the other and almost certainly doubts the other would allow the situation to slide into war Foreign Secretaries To Meet The Indian and Pakistani Foreign Secretaries, accompanied by senior military officials, are meeting this weekend in New Delhi. Press coverage on prospects for conciliation has been heavy, and both sides expect the meetings to remain cordial and gradually to dispel mutual fears of escalation. The two sides nevertheless are unlikely to resolve their differences quickly The Indians say ublicly they want to discuss only a mutual drawdown of border units. continued (b)(3) (b)(1) (b)(3) (b)(3) (b)(1) (b)(3) (b)(1) (b)(3) (b)(1) (b)(3) 9 Approved for Release: 2016/03/23 C06496671 31 January 1987 (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2016/03/23 C06496671 Military Dangers The Indian and Pakistani mobilizations increase the risk that an inadvertent local clash could spread. Indian ground and naval patrols have strayed into Pakistani territory at least twice this month, and small-scale shooting incidents occur regularly in Kashmir. The military preparations by each side have reduced the warning time either would have before an outbreak of major hostilities. In addition to the forward deployment of ground units and the increased readiness of the Air Forces, the Indians have dispatched troops from the Eastern Command to the west. These steps, however, remain largely defensive in the absence of other activity, especially logistic preparations by either side. continued 10 31 January 1987 Approved for Release: 2016/03/23 C06496671 Approved for Release: 2016/03/23 C06496671 Impact on Indian Domestic Security Gandhi has used the crisis to emphasize his position that Pakistan should curtail support for Sikh and Muslim separatist movements in India. New Delhi also has used its charges that Pakistan is reinforcing units opposite Punjab as a pretext to increase the Indian Army's presence in the border states and to place all paramilitary units in Punjab under command of the Army The increased Army presence is likely to reassure Hindus who fear Sikh and Muslim extremists and to weaken the appeal of opposition politicians who play on such fears. The military moves allow Gandhi to retain an elected moderate Sikh government In Puniab and at th7 same time, to crack down on Sikh extremists. DIA Comment: DIA disagrees with the first two sentences of the second paragraph. Gandhi and Zia, according to reports, are not in communication and have little rapport. Consequently, each probably has little confidence in the other's intention and ability to prevent war. On the other hand, Gandhi and Pakistani Prime Minister Junejo do have some rapport and probably more confidence in each other's intentions. 11 31 January 1987 Approved for Release: 2016/03/23 C06496671