NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06496675
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: March 16, 2022
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2016
• Case Number: F-2015-01415
• Publication Date: February 7, 1987

_ojae,t_
Approved for Release: 2016/03/23 C06496675
Director of
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Satiiirday
/ February 1987
4
2
---rorS3 ecrgt
CPAS NID 87-0311(
7 February 1987
�
(b)(3)
Approved for Release: 2016/03/23 C06496675
Approved for Release: 2016/03/23 C06496675
(b)(3)
NORTH YEMEN-SOUTH YEMEN: Border Tensions Over Oil
(b)(1)
(b)(1)
The possibility of a border clash between the two Yemens has been
heightened by South Yemen's formal claim to territory near a recent
oil discovery, the claim was made (b)(1)
after North Yemen protested the buildup of South Yemeni military
forces in the disputed area near Ma'rib followina a major oil discovery (b)(1)
south of there by the USSR. Sanaa believes the
Soviet discovery is in North Yemen. (b)(3)
Comment: Geologic studies known to the North Yemenis suggest
that the disputed area includes several large oilfields containing at
least several hundred million barrels of oil. The Soviet discovery
probably confirmed South Yemeni suspicions that the oil-bearing
area in North Yemen extends into South Yemen, and Aden will push
the border issue. North Yemen has permanent military facilities at
Ma'rib, however, and maintains a decisive numerical advantage over
South Yemeni forces in the border area. Even so, the oilfields are
vulnerable to sabotage.
INDIA: Military Pushing Resumption of Exercises
Indian officials have reacted to the lndo-Pakistani border withdrawal
agreement with relief, but the military appears determined to continue
with the Brass Tacks exercises.
the Army Chief of Staff seems to have persuaded Prime Minister
Gandhi to continue the Brass Tacks IV exercise at full strength
despite misgivings in the Cabinet and Foreign Ministry. The US
Embassy and Indian press commentators speculate that Gandhi's
aggressive stance will enhance his party's political standing in the key
spring elections in two northwestern states. Critics, however, are
accusing Gandhi of vacillating between appeasement and
confrontation during the crisis and of making India appear a bully.
Comment: Some Indian troops at the border are likely to move to the
Brass Tacks exercise area over the next few days rather than return
to garrison�probably sparking renewed Pakistani protests. Gandhi
and his Congress Party almost certainly will translate the Army
deployments into votes from Hindus in the northwest, who will
welcome additional troops in Punjab as evidence of New Delhi's
commitment to combat Sikh extremists. Gandhi should easily weather
press criticism that his recent actions were ill considered and
inconsistent.
9
7 February 1987
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
Approved for Release: 2016/03/23 C06496675