DAILY SUMMARY - 1950/10-1950/12

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January 11, 2019
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48107 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 58 CONFIDENTIAL EUROPE 3 0 DEC 1950 1482 1. ITALY: Comparison of French-Italian Communist propaganda-- dp9/S US Embassy Rome, in pointing out the similarities and differences in the "peace" propaganda of the Italian Communist Party and that of the French Communists, notes that the Italian Communists place relatively little emphasis on opposition to German re- armament but instead stress Italy's poverty and dwell on the burden that Italian rearmament would place on the working class. The Embassy observes that recent Italian Communist propaganda makes no attempt to terrify Italians with the spector of the over- whelming might of the Red Army but rather focuses on the ex- pediency of "neutrality" as the means to preserve "peace" for Italy. The Embassy reports in this connection that left-wing Socialist leader Nenni, the principal spokesman for this "neu- trality" thesis, recently declared that "the only intelligent conservatives are those who hang desperately to hope of a negotiated peace and support neutrality." 2. .GREECE: No renewal of large-scale fighting foreseen--US Em- bassy Athens reports that the ranking US military officer in Greece has no information which would indicate an early re- newal of hostilities against Greece "on a military scale." According to the Embassy, this officer shares the views held by "z.esponsible people" in Athens that the Greek Com- munist guerrillas now in Bulgaria and elsewhere are not by themselves capable of operating as a military force and that neither Albania nor Bulgaria would engage in any military venture against Greece unless backed by Russian troops, either overtly or covertly supplied. Document No. Et) CHANGE in Class. El DECLASSIFIED C1LEs. C:iANCED TO: TS S D:A 4.Apr 77 Atth:.i.. 77'1763 ' Date: firMAR By: 0 'f CONFIDENTIAL' - R� t�wimIterroat!.::�;... Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 TOP SECRET NEAR EAST-AFRICA 3. IRAN: Possible disturbances over oil legislation--US Em- bassy Tehran believes that the Razmara Government may find it difficult to obtain a vote of confidence when it attempts to justify its recent withdrawal of a supplementary oil bill revising its contract with the Anglo-Iranian'Oil Company. The bill was withdrawn in order to forestall opposition attempts to link it with the question of nationalizing the oil Industry, which the government strongly opposes. The Embassy reports that a mass demonstration was scheduled by the government's opposition for 29 December and warns that, with public emotion being whipped up over the question, there is some possibility that minor, civil disturbances may take place. FAR EAST 4, INDOCHINA: Large-scale Viet Minh attack expected in January-- General de Lathe de Tassigny, French High Commissioner for Indochina, has told US Minister Heath he feels "almost certain" the Viet Minh will attack in force in January. De Lattre said weather conditions beginning about 15 January will practically prohibit employment of his air force, thereby favoring Viet Minh attacks. Concerning a Chinese Communist invasion, de Lathe believes there are actually fewer Chinese Communist troops in southern China now than in October and that the Chinese will not invade before February at the earliest. Because rein-. � forcements and new materials are scheduled to arrive in January, he is less afraid of a possible Chinese invasion pre- sumably after January, than he is of Viet Minh attack before supplies arrive. De Lathe further said he considers the newly - equipped and Chinese-trained Viet Minh battalions much superior to the Chinese Communist troops in south China. EVO 2 - Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 0/ 48106 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 T T CklbENTIAL1 GENERAL 2 9 KG 1950 1481 1. French and Egyptian views on Far East situation�The US grn delegation at the UN, in transmitting accounts of recent conversations with French and Egyptian delegates, indicates that the French representative took a very gloomy view of the situation in the Far East, particularly Indochina He does not see how Indochina could be held very long against Chinese Communist manpower and material resources if the Chinese decided to give full-scale support to the Viet Minh. He feels quite certain that if Indochina falls, the rest of Southeast Asia would fall very quickly to the Communists and in turn India would not be far behind. The US delegation comments that it might be fair to draw the inference from all the French representitive's remarks that the US should in effect beat a strategic retreat from Korea in order to give fuller support to Indochinese resistance to Communist aggres- sion and to husband US resources for defense in other areas. The Egyptian representative told the US delegation that the UN is not psychologically or physically prepared for the step of naming the Chinese Communists aggressors. Laying particular stress on the-unpreparedness of Asian countries in these respects, he urged in the interests of preserving the unity of the UN that the US play for time, even if only for six weeks or six months. He said, however, that if the Chinese Communists cross the 38th Parallel it would probably be undoubtedly necessary to name them as aggressors. EUROPE 2, FRANCE: Communist campaign against German rearmament-- 0//9/5 According to 'US Embassy Paris, the French Communist Party is now giving "virtually undivided attention" to a propaganda i� Document No. r 1 VONFIDENITAri NO CHANGE in Class. 0 0 DECLASSIFIED Class. C:IAYC=D TO: TS S DDA Memo, 4 Apr 77 P7O. 77/1763 By: O?). Auth: Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 Cfgt4F E T campaign against German rearmament, with the aim of spreading disunity and paralyzing or retarding Western defense and simultaneously reinforcing the world "peace front." The Embassy reports that the French Communists have initiated a nationwide door-to-door canvass (modeled on that of the Stockholm Appeal) to collect signed "ballots" in a national "vote" against German rearmament The Embassy expects this campaign to develop with mounting intensity and much variety during the next few months. 3. NETHERLANDS: Dutch-Indonesian views on New Guinea-- US Embassy The Hague reports that the Netherlands Socialist Party is badly split over the question of whether to transfer sovereignty over Netherlands New Guinea to Indonesia. Accord- ing to the Embassy, the conciliatory elements in the party were responsible for the final Netherlands counter-proposals, which envisaged either the transfer of sovereignty to the Netherlands - Indonesian Union Or mediation through an ad hoc committee or the UN Commission for Indonesia. Meanwhile, Indonesian delegate Rum has told the Embassy that there can be no discussion of details of the tranfer of sovereignty until agreement has been reached that the transfer will be made�. ,Rum says he has been advised by friendly Netherlands political leaders to await the political repercussions of the failure of the Hague meet- ings, and Rum believes that some weeks of inaction on the part of tild Indonesians are strategically desirable. Although he considered it necessary to emphasize that the conference was ended, and not merely adjourned, Rum concedes that the time may come when the Indonesians must recognize the need for a conciliatory attitude and even for a compromise verbal formula in'order to reach a solution. 2 10itiTIALIE Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 ev) Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 ATV' PAIE T FAR EAST 4. INDOCHINA: French believe expected offensive has begun-- According to US Consul General Blancke in Hanoi, the French military command regards the activities of the past few days north of Hanoi as the start of the Viet Minh offensive. The French are depending on mobile reserves as planned and� feel they can hold unless the Chinese Communists intervene. 5. BURMA: Government would resist Chinese Communist attack-- US Ambassador Key in Rangoon repbrtit that th-e Burmese Foreign Minister, in reply to the point-blank question as to whether Burma would fight if attacked by the Chinese Communists, stated that as long as the present Burmese Government is in power, Burma will fight. Key comments that this statement is in line with the decisions reportedly taken during the emergency conference held in Mandalay early in December. -3 CONFIDENTIAL' TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 48105 OriNFAEli TA EUROPE 28 DEC 1950 1480 1. GERMANY: Schumacher remains opposed to rearmament-- Co? !S.' 1 German Socialist leader Schumacher has stated to US High Commissioner McCloy that he opposes German rearmament Cn97 at this time because it would prevent the reunification of Germany and has reiterated that German rearmament now would expose a weak West Germany to Soviet retaliation. From a long conversation with Schumacher, McCloy concludes that Schumacher's dominant objective is the reunification of Germany. Schumacher implied that he might possibly accept temporary neutralization as the price of unification, insisting that anti-Communist forces would prevail in a neutralized Germany, particularly if the West would continue to give economic assistance and grant equality of rights. Schumacher is opposed, however, to buying Soviet agreement on unification at the price of any arrangements which would establish the ,equality of East and West Germany or to any deviation from the principle that free elections must precede the establishment of any new all-German governing body. He objects to direct dealings between the West and East German regimes, even of an exploratory nature, as proposed in the Grotewohl letter. East German effort to block Western rearmament-- In commenting on a recent East German "law for the protection of peace" (which provides severe penalties for all Germans supporting a German contribution to Western European defense), the US High Commission in Berlin regards it both as an effort to intimidate West Germans and Berliners from supporting West German rearmament and as a "legal" basis for further re- pressive measures in East Germany. The Commission also points out that with respect to Berlin the measure offers a means of deterring travel (except by,ait) between West Berlin and either East or West Germany. Although the law has thus 1 CONFIDENTIR TOP SEC Document No. 73 NO CHANGE in Class. rl LJ E] DECLASSII=D Class. C-IrA:7.2.7. TO: TS DDA !,,,J2mo, 4 Apr 77 kith: PP4 a7:L. 77/1733 Date: By: Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 - Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 TOP SECRET 4:15Nr.i57,71-.�-1;, 1 far been used principally for propaganda purposes, the Com- mission considers it possibly significant and perhaps indicative of Communist concern over activities that West Berlin press representatives have been singled out for specific threats under the law and have been the object of one or two recent kidnapping attempts. 2 TrOINPFIDSEEINE T Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 3.3(h)(2) 48104 ��11-. Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 T 41414411AL fi,,SECRET 27 DEC 1950 1479 FAR EAST 1. Status of Dutch-Indonesian 'talks on New Guinea--US Am- Ts bassador Cochran in Djakarta has learned that the Nether- .5/7-5 lands and Indonesian delegations meeting at The Hague have agreed to the following points: (a) sovereignty over Netherlands New Guinea should be transferred to Indonesia; (b) the transfer should take place within 1951; and (c) a conference should be held in 1951 to reach agreement on � seven specific points presented by the Indonesian delegation. Meanwhile Cochran has learned from his British colleague that the Netherlands Government is greatly concerned over the welfare of Netherlands citizens in Indonesia if final agreement is not reached for the transfer of sovereignty.. The British Ambassador also said the Netherlands Govern- ment does not expect to obtain the requisite two-thirds parliamentary majority for transferring sovereignty and is considering the possibility either of standing on a simple majority or tendering its resignation on the issue, thus throwing the onus of disapproval on the opposition in Parlia- ment. 2. Estimate of Asian opinion on Formosa question--US Consul General McConaughy in Hong Kong believes that British observers over-emphasize- the adverse effect on Asian opinion which would, result from US refusal to turn Formosa over to the Cine- Communists. McConaughy considers that the Britatt Mew fails to give sufficient weight to the effect of such action on the Chinese themselves and notes the existence Of a body of Chinese opinion in Hong Kon q and elsewhere which would be "dismayed and disheartened by the surrender of Formosa. It is McConaughies cooOPT% . TOP .SEC E PIO C1.11127..!: 0 Document :7. o. 0 DEC.i:A317.:: 3 Class. C:.!... "1::) TO: TS S P:T.cme, 4 Apr 77 Auth: DDA '-i".PG. .77/1763 Date: 2--1)/yit By: 023 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 s. Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 Top SECRET ! nati 114 .*:" � � � however, that regardless of the direction of Asian opinion on this question, the effect of any kind of appeasement on� the Chinese Communists themselves is a matter of "over- riding importance." He feels that to yield under pressure and appease them with Formosa, or any other concession, would further confirm the Chinese Communists" belief in the effectiveness- of their present policy, would dangerously increase their contempt for US military capability in the Far East, and would greatly strengthen and-embolden those Communist elements who advocate an intimate alliance with the USSR. He believes that the Peiping regime would be encouraged to proceed immediately with further aggres- sive plans in Southeast Asia and concludes that if there ever was a time when concessions could alter the view of the Chinese Communist leadership, that time has long since past. 3. Chinese Communist intentions in Korea I II 1- occupy a orea u ess prevented by force. the Chinese Com- munists "fully expected the US" to bomb targets in Man- churia and elsewhere in China when the Chinese intervention in Korea could no longer be concealed. this was the "important reason" why open Chinese Com- munist participation was delayed as long as possible; the Chinese Communists feared bombings would cut lines of communication from North China to Korea before essential military similes could be moved there in sufficient quantity. US failure to bomb military objectives in China when Chinese Communist aggression became obvious Nita.p generally regarde0 as evidence of US military andiVolitical weakness 2 TOP� SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 -1' Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 TOP SECRET CONIBENT/41 4. Chinese Communist troops reported in Indochina-- US Minister Heath in Saigon has been informed by the chief of the French counter-intelligence in Indochina that Chinese Communist troops have been observed in several operations in Tonkin, usually operating heavy equipment, notably artillery. The French official de- clared that French military intelligence will not officially admit the presence in Indochina of Chinese Communists until it can be proved, and perhaps not even then for fear of provoking Chinese intervention. According to the same source, 25,000 Viet Minh troops have recently returned to Tonkin from training in South China, bringing the total of Chinese-trained Viet Minh troops to 50,000. Source esti- mates that these troops, together with a minimum of 100,000 other Viet Minh troops, constitute a total force that the French "will have difficulty withstanding." He expects an attack per- haps at the beginning of January and certainly before the end of January. 3 TOPIVRTIETT Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 ���� 48103 1 n Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 TO E T GENERAL 2. Estimate of Soviet reaction to German rearmament--US High Commissioner McCloy expresses the view that mere announce- ment of German participation in WeStern European defense pre_ Otiis is not likely to result in immediate Soviet military aft- McCloy estimates that the USSR will concentrate for the immediate future on cold war and diplomatic action with continued military preparations an integral part of its strategy. In McCloy's view, a decision to resort to military attack would be based on a combination of Soviet estimates that the cold war was failing and Western defenses were approach- ing the point where they could effectively hold Europe. In its diplomatic campaign, the USSR would attempt to divide and frighten the West by giving the impression that a Soviet attack was imminent; simultaneously, the people of Eastern Europe would be prepared psychologically for such an attack in order to justify continued military preparations. McCloy considers a Korea7type attack launched from East Germany Document No. / DEC 19., 1478 A r:irr5 NO CHANCE in Class. 0 C "") TO: TS S C T-mo, 4 Ar 77 Auth: D': 77/17�)3 Date: By: 0 7-,S Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 T 0 PDX, E T unlikely except in the case of Berlin where it is a real possibility. McCloy also anticipates that at a CFM meeting the USSR would emphasize the German rearma- ment issue and warns that the Western Powers must be prepared for dramatic and ostensibly serious offers (such as. free elections, a peace treaty, and the withdrawal of troops) as part of the Soviet effort both to delay German agreement to joining Europe's defenses and to place on the West the responsibility for the ensuing rearmament race.. FAR EAST 3. INDOCHINA: De Lattre confident of holding Viet Minh-- In an interview with US Minister Heath, newly arrived High Commissioner de Lathe reiterated the determination &the French to grant national independence to the Associated States and declared he would take an active part in creating a national Vietnamese army. De Lattre estimated that provided the Chinese did not interfere, French and Vietnamese forces could eliminate the Viet Minh rebels in about two years. . Meanwhile, Emperor Bao Dai expressed the view that de Lathe, with his "energy, military ability and will, could really accomplish great things" for Indochina. Bao .uai tnereiore naa aeciaea not to as ae Lattre tor the return of the High Commissioner's palace, stating that it was more important at this time to maintain "de Lathe in his present good intentions." French estimate of military situation�According to US Consul Blancke in Hanoi considefs it doubtful that alarge-scale Viet Minh attack will -2 � CONFI1JEVThITOP E T Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 1 3.3(h)(2) c(4/5 3.3(h)(2) 1 1 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 TOP SECRET come before February. The French note that the current reorganization of Viet Minh forces into divisions will not be complete until February and that the return of tropical weather in February will favor native over European troops. The French also offer the possibility that before launching a 'major attack, the Viet Minh may await the outcome in Korea to be sure of Chinese participation if needed. TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 -48102 -Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 T 0 Ale i T `iCtf GENERAL 1. Prospects for British-Egyptian defense talks�According to US Embassy Cairo, the Egyptian delegate to the British- Egyptian defense talks in London reports that although nothing has been definitely agreed upon he is for the first time "conservatively optimistic" regarding chances for success during the conversations which will be resumed in January. 2. Australian attitude on New Guinea question--In conversation with US Ambassador Jarman, a British Foreign Office official expressed the view that despite Australian Foreign Minister Spender's statement that Australia would not stand idly by in the event of the transfer of Netherlands New Guinea to Indo- nesia, the Australian Government has not yet decided upon a course of action if the transfer takes place. The British official believes the Australian position will be determined by the practical consideration that Australia has no adequate� forces available for use in New Guinea. He added that the British are trying to prevent further Australian statements which would disturb Dutch-Indonesian negotiations in the hope that the transfer may be delayed as long as possible. EUROPE 234 DEC 1950 1477 � 3. USSR: Report on military activity--The US Military Attache EV/17V. 3 in Moscoif reports a decided increase in the number of anti- aircraft positions in Moscow during the past month, bringing the known total to 32 emplacements of 8. guns each. The MA notes that otherwise the Moscow area is . 'militarily quiet." The MA als-d'reports no unusual traffic or activity on the rail- roads in the western and northwestern part of the country, with marshalling yards in such cities as Moscow, Brest and Smolensk "not particularly full or busy." Document :10. - 1 - lio CHANCE LI Class. El �.f.AP CONVENTIA Auth: DD REG. 77/r763 Class. C-1."1:2ED TO: TS DEA Memo, 4 Apr 77 S q) Ej DECLASS:I:FL:1D TOP SECA T Date: 25 _. ni By: a 50 - Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 TOP SECRET 4. AUSTRIA: Estimate of Soviet intentions--US Minister Donelly transmits the unanimous view of Chancellor Figl, � Vice-Chancellor Schaerf, Foreign Minister Gruber and Interior Minister Helmer that the USSR will not attempt a direct blockade of Vienna on the Berlin model except as a preliminary step to general war. These officials never- theless consider a blockade a real possibility and believe that provision should be made to cope with it as well as with internal Communist disturbances and related trans- portation stoppages. SAS c iR 5. GERMANY: Socialist views on Schuman Plan--The US High Commission in Bonn reports the views of three Socialist trade union leaders that the majority of German workers will support the Schuman Plan. The Commission points out that the position of the trade unions is not in harmony with that expressed by Socialist leader Schumacher, who may therefore be forced to re-examine his party's policy of outright opposition to the Schuman Plan, 2 Pi.TFTENTIAL1 TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 -- 48101 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 k.../ TOP SECRE.T. GENERAL 1. Analysis of Soviet-Satellite propaganda�In reporting Soviet press reaction. to President Truman's declaration of a state of national emergency, .US Embassy Moscow comments that the Soviet people have now received their first indication that increased world tension may affect the "peaceful con- struction work and internal improvements" of the regime. The Embassy speculates, that this warning may foreshadow a strengthening of Soviet military preparations but points. out that the total press: reaction was not so vigorous as to be inconsistent with the Soviet "peace policy." Concerning propaganda on the subject of German rearmament, the Embassy reports that the change in emphasis by the Berlin Soviet-controlled press, from stress on general US plans for world conquest to the danger of war in Europe, has not been paralleled by the Moscow press. The Embassy points out that this change in the Berlin press could be an effort to block West German participation in NATO or could reveal an intention to provoke-- military con- flict. 2 2 DEC Sge Meanwhile, the US Military Attache in Budapest reports that official Hungarian propaganda is generally following the "peace" line and the Hungarian people are being psychologically prepared for offensive warfare only against Yugoslavia. The Attache notes that the Hungarian press has contained no indication of President Truman's having made a statement concerning the use of the atom bomb and that the Hungarian people are not being psycho- logically prepared at this time against attack by atom bombs. - CONFIDENTIAL TOP SECRET .abocument No. 1476 r1- -NO CHARGE in Class DEcLA.s..7.1-7:"--_-) (-7 7.1): 4 Autlf: t,e � 13 ' .1". � . TS A:2= '17 n eD,303-1 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 TOP SECRET 2. Netherlands reaction on New Guinea question--US Embassy The Hague expresses the view that the Netherlands Govern- ment will not initially accept the modified Indonesian.proposal for the transfer to Indonesia of sovereignty over Netherlands New Guinea. The Embassy observes that the provision re- quiring an immediate Dutch pledge to transfer sovereignty is "basically antithetical in tone" to the Netherlands position as heretofore expressed and that the government could not accept the proposal until it had been submitted to parlia- mentary debate in the States General, Where the Embassy be- lieves opposition would be substantially greater than in the 1949 debate on the transfer of sovereignty to the Republic of Indonesia. EUROPE 3, ITALY: Estimate of Italian opinion�US Embassy Rome estimates, concerning present official and non-official Italian attitudes toward the international situation, that: (a) military and foreign office officials seem to "lead the field" in their awareness of the danger posed by the USSR and the need for prompt measures and feel that Italy has a chance of being able to defend itself; (b) most of the remainder of the government, and many of the intelligentsia and politically conscious elements, are beginning to realize the gravity of the situation but feel that Italy is incapable of undertaking a rearmament program large enough to succeed; and (c) the general population is completely apathetic owing largely to a state of war weariness so profound as almost to constitute combat fatigue. The Embassy further notes that only timidlmoves towards industrial mobilization have been niade,44hat the government is not attempting to rouse the feelings of, the people. The Embassy believes, however, that as the public becomes more conscious of the growing strength of Italy and the Western Powers, the attitude of the population will gradually improve. -2 T T Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 T Riff Ti T Meanwhile, the Embassy reports that Italian -Communistpropaganda is laying more stress on military defeatism and is undoubtedly proving effec- tive in helping maintain among non-Communists that lack of a sense of national emergency which is making it so difficult for the government to rearm Italy, physi- cally as well as morally. The Embassy also expresses the view that the violent Communist reaction to the re- cent sabotage bill may presage stronger and more exten- sive Communist action in the field of labor. 4. GERMANY: Socialist reaction to Brussels conference-- The US High Commission in Bonn reports that two leaders of the German Social Democratic Party regret Socialist leader Schumacher's initial negative reaction to the results of the Brussels conference and express the view that the SPD should not take a position until more details are known. The High Commission believes that "restraints will be applied" to Schumacher and concludes that if Schumacher is ready to cooperate, as the two Socialist leaders implied, and if Chancellor Adenauer can be persuaded to associate opposition deputies with negotiations, prospects will be much brighter than in past weeks both for a satisfactory negotiation of the German contribution to Western defense and a revised statute governing relations between-,the kederal -7� Republic and the occupying powers. FAR EAST 5. INDOCHINA: Improvement in French position noted.-US Lega- tion Saigon notes both� a lessening of Vietnamese mistrust of theliteocktalid a growing support for Bao Dal's regime as a 3 CONFIDENTIAL! TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 v.... � � 4 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 ;13204E4 R E T result of: (a) widening public realization that France has finally granted real independence to Vietnam in the Pau Accords; (b) awareness of the implications for Indochina of Chinese aggression in Korea; and (c) Bao Dai's recent public appearances and statements. The Legation points out, however, that this gradual improvement is being corn - promised by delays in forming a national.Vietname'se army and in effecting changes in the unimpressive and unpopular Vietnamese Government. - 4 -t TC11001141VIE T Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 Approved_forRelease: 2019/01/02 C06749455 48100 T 0 p c6 (1.8 E 8 T 4 GENERAL 1. European reaction to CFM--A Belgian Foreign Office official has informed US Embassy Brussels that his government is in favor of a meeting of the Council of Foreign Ministers. The official also expressed the view that Western refusal to hold a CFM meeting would have "an injurious effect" on the Western European people who need to be convinced that no stone had been left un- turned to adjust East-West differences. 21 DEC 1950 2. British concern over Tapanese treaty--A British Foreign Office official has 'informed US Embassy London that.the UK has been concerned'for some time over developments in Japan. and now feels that the crisis in Korea underlines the necessity for regularizing the Japanese position "before it is too late." The British official expressed his personal belief that the "briefest sort" of liberal, non-restrictive treaty with japan should be concluded, a treaty which would do little more than end the state of war and permit Japan to apply for membership in the UN and other international bodies. He feels that such a treaty could be negotiated with relatively little delay and would have the added advantage of being awkward for the USSR to oppose. The official concluded that the British would have no objection to separate security arrangements between the US and Japan. 1475 3. British views on Kashmir dispute �According to US Embassy London, the British Foreign Office does not believe that agita- tion in.Pakistan over the Kashmir situation has reached a point requiring early actionby the.Security Council. The- British'ivill at- tempt at the 4-10 January CommOnwealth Prinie'llinisters' Conference Document No. NO CHANGE in Class. 0 - 1 - 0 DECLASSIFIED Class. CHANGED TO: TS S DDA Memo, 4 Apr 77 Auth: DD EG. 77/1763 Date ;22) � "�-� �� � � ' � 2 P ( CONfint T Or' By: '01/5 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 T E T luCktik to have India and Pakistan discuss their differences. � The British believe that further Security Council action now would seriously impair the proposed Nehru -Liaquat talks. FAR EAST 4. INDOCHINA: Carpentier's views on military situation-- In a farewell call on US Minister Heath in Saigon, General Carpentier, departing commander of French forces in the Far East, expressed the vie* that a Viet Minh attack is not likely to occur in Indochina during the next two months unless supported by Chinese troops. Carpentier reported no indications of Chinese military preparations for early participation in such an operation and stated it would take "some weeks" for the Chinese to mount it. Commenting that the Chinese would not intervene until a Viet Minh attack had failed, Carpentier expressed confidence in the ability of the French to hold a Viet Minh attack two months from now, after the arrival of reinforcements and materiel in January. 5. KOREA: ROK "mass executions" reported legally performed-- Cal- US Embassy Seoul reports that UN officials have investigated charges cabled by foreign correspondents that ROK civil author- ities have performed mass executions of prisoners without triak and that the UN officials are satisfied that the executions, how- ever badly handled, were the result of sentence passed by a legally constituted court in accordance with law. According to the Embassy, the ROK Government has suspended executions, as a result of public furor and foreign press reports, until a suitable place can be found and a proper method followed. The Embassy indicates that President Rhee has ordered speedier trials in p1 of prison conditions, the observance of normal decencies in carrying out future executions, and the establish? ment of a program for reviewing capital sentences. ,At - 2 - Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 48099 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 68 ST 0 13Sytei'C RE T JV:Vf k,1,11/ �41/ '411.1 � GENERAL 1. Results of Brussels Conference--Secretary Acheson reps:ills from Brussels that the US, British, and French Foreign Ministers have agreed to prepare promptly a general outline of arrangements to be made with the German Federal Republic in order to reflect the changes in the present occupation regime which would be made necessary tty Germany's participation in Western Euro- pean defense. As a guide to drafting these arrangements, the Foreign Ministers enunciated the following general principles: (a) the entry of Germany into Western defense arrangements would logically entitle it to substantial freedom, and the goal should therefore be to establish the relations between the occupying powers and Germany on as broad a contractual basis as possible; (b) every effort should be made to explore with the Germans them- selves the problems involved in establishing such relations between Germany and the occupying powers; (c) the arrange- ments made should cover all aspects of these relations, ex- cept those which can be resolved only in a peace settlement; and (d) commitments made by Germany through its adherence to international statutes or organizations would render possible' the relinquishment of occupation controls. 2. Chinese Communists speak cryptically of. returning to UN-- The US delegation at the UN has been told that Indian dele- gate Rau "got nowhere" in his final meeting with General Wu although the Chinese Communists made cryptic remarks to the effect they hoped to return to the UN soon. The dele- gation also reports that the cease-fire committee is giving consideration to the possibility of sending to Peiping a cable inteitded to quiet Chinese Communist fears of falling into a trap by accepting the cease-fire resolution. 0 -" � Document No. 20 DEC 1950 4 1474 NO CHANGE in Class. 0 DECLASSIFIED Class. CACD TO: TS S DDA Memo, 4 Apr 77 Auth: DDA RG. 7711763 T Date: By; Approved for for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 T 0 P4 a 3. Status of Netherlands New Guinea negotiations--US Am- bassador Cochran in Djakarta has been told by an Indo- nesian representative that a deadlock may occur in the Hague negotiations on the disposition of Netherlands New Guinea if pressure is not brought to bear on the Dutch to accept the Indonesian proposal for compromise. Cochran believes "a grave threat" exists in the possibility that such a deadlock would endanger the existence of the Netherlands-Indonesian union and damage East-West relations, with a consequent impairment to US interests. FAR EAST 4. INDOCHINA: Reported Viet Minh intentions--US Consul d S Blancke in Hanoi transmits information received from a French official, who evaluates it as "extremely reliable," that Viet Minh leaders two months ago requested three regUlar Chinese divisions (as "volunteers" if necessary) to inflict a crushing blow on French and Vietnamese forces in Tonkin. Source reports that the Chinese have only re- cruited volunteers from among south Kwangsi-Yunnan *its, which the Viet Minh are reluctant to accept, and AhlWat the lack of full-scale Chinese Communist support is irritating the Viet Minh. In the opinion of the French official, the Viet Minh fear that recent French political concessions may bring nationalist support to the Vietnamese Govern.. �� ment and ultimately undercut the Viet Minh if the -French are not quickly driven "into the sea." The official concluded that the Viet Minh feel they must undertake such a drive even though they have misgivings of being able to accom- plish their objective without more Chinese aid. � � 2 - CONFIDENTA' TOP SEC nT Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 �Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 if#4,44,41). Top sEcif',,,fr. 5. KOREA: Treatment of ROK prisoners deplored�US Poll- tical Adviser Sebald reports from Tokyo that the UN Com- mand is "deeply gaturbed" by continuing reports of inhumane treatment of Political prisoners by ROK authorities and fears ROK excesses inay.discredit the entire UN Korean � effort. The UN Command haqsregarded the trial and punish- ment of collaborators' and other political offenders as an internal matter for the .ROK and has therefore refrained,- - from taking any action beyond bringing atrocity reports to the attention of responsible ROK authorities. Sebald states, however, that representations Of the UN Command and US Embassy Seoul appear to have had little effect. 3 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 c � 1 � Document No. )./P NO CHANGE in Class. ri 0 DECLASSIFIED Class. CHANGED TO: TS S DDA Memo, 4 Apr 77 Auth: DDA R:G. 77/1763 1970 By: Date? 4 MAR Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 R E T 44771 gathered the impression that French ministerial officials have been instructed not to discuss the possibility of a reference of the Indochinese question to the UN. The Paris correspondents also feel that the French Government has encouraged press comment on the inadequacy of US aid, both as a means of ex- erting pressure for-acceleration of such aid and as a� means of protecting itself from domestic criticism. 3. UN discussion of Austrian treaty to be avoided�The Department of State has advised the US DelegatiOn_to the UN General Assembly that Austrian Foreign Minister Gruber has, agreed that no practical result can be obtained by submitting the liiistrian"treaty question.to this session of the General Assembly. The Department feels, how- ever, that every opportunity should be seized to use the Austrian treaty question as an illustration of Soviet obstruction tactics and insincerity. EUROPE 4. YUGOSLAVIA: Crop shortages worse than expected�US Embassy � Belgrade reports that crop data recently submitted by the Yugoslav Ministry of Agriculture indicates that the total food and feed deficit is more severe in all categories than previously estimated. The Embassy feels that the revised list of food and feed requirements represents a realistic approach, but believes the new estimate Is still too low to insure, against human privation and excessive slaughtering of livestock during the next six months. - 2 - ifaCRET l� � iri*/44/ Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 I. � Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 � se.94,/ T 0 P ,T FAR EAST 5. INDONESIA: Chinese Communist request rejected--US Embassy.jakarta has learned that the Indonesian Cabinet has unanimously rejected a request by the newly-arrived Chinese Communist Ambassador to open nine consulates throughout the archipelago. The Chinese Communist Ambas.- sador was told that the bidonesian Government wished to re- gister all individuals of Chinese origin in order to determine whether they claimed Chinese or Indonesian citizenship before considering further any request to establish Chinese consulates. The Embassy comments that the Indonesian Government is "not happy" over the aggressive policy being pursued by the Chinese Communist Ambassador. 6. INDOCHINA: Military situation--US Military Attache Saigon report that the decision to hold or evacuate the North Vietnam � border post of Langson will be made by General Juin, recently arrived from Paris. The Attache expresses the opinion that . reinforcements for North Vietnam cannot be drawn from the rest of Indochina without sacrificing French control in those areas. Meanwhile, US Consulate Hanoi reports that French General Alessandri commanding in North Vietnam has stated that "the only thing possible now" is to hold the Red River delta � area. In connection with the French withdrawals, the head of the major North Vietnam coal area, which lies outside the pro- posed defensive perimeter surrounding the delta area, is in Saigon attempting to persuade the French command to include the mining district in defense plans. 3 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 8 OCT 1950 1422 GENERAL 1. Italo-Yugoslav relations may improve--US Ambassador Allen et* in Belgrade reports that the Italian Ambassador there is now efiy5 more optimistic of some improvement in Italo-Yugoslav re- lations than at any time during the past two years. The Italian Ambassador told Allen that the first favorable development occurred about two months ago when the Yugoslays relaxed some of their onerous restrictions in Zone B of Trieste; more recently, they showed a readiness to resume talks regarding the evaluation of some Italian property claims as well Is other outstanding economic questions. Meanwhile, US Ambassador Dunn in Rome has learned that Tito apparently made a special trip to Zagreb to discuss with the Italian Minister of Foreign Trade Yugoslavia's economic needs and to raise the question of Italian help in meeting Yugo- slavia's food and feed problems. EUROPE 2. FRANCE: Position of Pleven Government--US Embassy Paris, emi in appraising the position of the Pleven Government as it faces the opening of an election-minded Parliament, estimates that although there are enough major problems to cause the fall "of two or three governments" in normal times, the Pleven Cabinet will probably be able to survive the initial parliamentary debates. As examples of the difficulties confronting Pleven, the Embassy points out that the Cabinet is not working as a \team on some important issues and the government's prestige has been damaged by the "humiliating disaster" in Indochina. In these circumstances, the Embassy observes, the Cabinet must ask at once for legislative approval of an extension of military service and of a costly rearmament program. Another complex problem confronting the government is the need to define the French position in, Regard to German rearmament. ';�?!�! - 1 - Docuthent No. NO CHANGE in Class. 0 0 DECLASSIFIED � C'IANCED TO: TS . DDA Memo, 4 Apr 77 Auth: DDA REG. 77 1763 Date e 4,_mouLtinr_ By: 'lb:WWII-AL vCRET Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 4.0 (")� TOP SECRET (CIA Comment: CIA believes the position of the Pleven Government is more precarious than the Embassy estimates. If the government falls in the near future, another middle-of-the-road coalition will probably be formed which would continue along the general lines of present foreign and defense policies.) FAR EAST 3. INDOCHINA: Increased US voice suggested--US Minister Heath 5/13 in Saigon, in discussing the complex situation in Indochina, = If - presses the view that US Legation and MAAG Saigon should� a 5 have some voice in French military, political, and financial policies in Indochina and be able to exert an "advisory in- fluence" over the same policies of the three Associated States of Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia. Heath feels the French would object to any increase in US influence in Indochinese affairs, noting that French Commander-in-Chief Carpentier has been very sensitive to any slight hint of American intervention In his command, but he believes that the rude shock to French complacency resulting from the recent military reverses and current French requests for further aid in Indochina may pro- vide the necessary leverage to increase US Influence. Rumors of Hanoi evacuation--US Consulate Hanoi reports that some dependents of French military personnel have received orders to evacuate the city and that "informed" French, whose attitude is described as cheerfully defeatist," consider that Hanoi's days are numbered. High Vietnamese officials there have discounted the possibility, of an internal uprising and told the Consulate that they intend to remain in the city. Meanwhile, the Governor of North Vietnam has re- iterated the need for arms for his local militia in order to th "release kegular troops for e front, where they belong." � Tio) IDENi E Te Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455, 41 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 TOP SECRET 4. KOREA: Rhee's attitude toward North Korea--US Embassy Counsellor Drumright in Seoul reports that, during a recent discussion of the use of ROK police in North Korea, President Rhee indicated an attitude of defiance of the UN and a deter- mination to incorporate North Korea into the -ROK as speedily as possible. Drumright urged Rhee to avoid affronting the UN, and at the end of the conversation, Rhee promised to avoid trouble over the status of North Korea until-discussions can be arranged with Ambassador Muccio who is returning from the Pacific� conference between President Truman and General MacArthur. TCONFSE&Pg E T Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 1. " Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 t IOIffMET GENERAL EUROPE 20 SWITZERLAND: Pressure for export controls suggested � US Minister Vincent in Bern expresses the view that although the Swiss are showing a "disposition" to cooperate in the Western program to control exports to Eastern Europe, it is clear that the extent of Swiss cooperation will depend on the amount of pressure which the Western European countries participating in the export control program are willing to exert on Switzerland by withholding stratpgic,materials. 1 WEN E T � Document ;�,To. i NO CHANGE in Class., o 0 D:CLASSIFIED Cla:.;s. C -.TaD. TO: TS ODA Memo, 4 Apr 77 Auth: ODA R:20. 77/1763 Date:. 2'4 mA4AR 4978 By: 7 OCT 1950 1421 coils Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 TOP SECRET Vincent suggests that; once the basic decision to pressure the Swiss has been made, the Western nations could either approach Bern officially on the problem or simply cut off strategic supplies to the Swiss without publicity or formal notice until adequate Swiss controls are adopted. (CIA Comment: The Swiss are reluctant to sacrifice the benefits of middleman between the East and the West, and they will probably have to be pressured into adopting strict export controls. The Swiss still need to be convinced that the Western nations themselves are denying Eastern Europe those goods which the Swiss have been asked to embargo.) 3. YUGOSLAVIA: ,Salonika port facilities needed--US Ambas- sador Allen in Belgrade reports that the Yugoslav Minister of Foreign Trade has raised the question of Yugoslavia's urgent need to be able to import foodstuffs through the Greek port city of Salonika. The Yugoslav Minister said his govern- ment has been anxious to open rail connections with Greece for some time and expressed the hope that the US can prevail on the Greek Government to become more cooperative., Allen agrees that the prompt reopening of the Yugcislav-Salonika rail connection and resumption of the use of the Free Port by Yugoslavia are important. He adds that the Turkish Ambassa- dor in Belgrade has also expressed much interest in the use of Salonika port faCilities by his country because rail connec- tions through 'Bulgaria are most difficult and may be cut off at any time. (CIA Comment: Both the Greek and the Yugoslav Govern- ments have contributed to the currently cool relations between the two countries. The present situation, however, may lead to an early resumption of general negotiations between the two countries on the technical level, without necessarily involving immediate normalization of their presently limited diplomatic relations.) �� � - 2 - 110 CRET J ' Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 TOP SECRET FAR EAST 4. KOREA: Communist atrocities in Seoul area--US Embassy Seoul transmits an estimate, based on incomplete investigations, ' that thousands of South Koreans in the Inchon-Seoul area were either murdered by the Communist invaders or forced to march north with the evacuating forces. The Embassy points out that the investigation of Communist treatment of political prisoners has been complicated by the lack of witnesses be- cause of death, flight from the area, or forced evacuation with the retreating North Korean troops. Even without all the sup- porting details, the Embassy is convinced that during the last days of Communist occupation of Seoul, the North Koreans forcefully deported large numbers of people known to be loyal to the Republic of Korea Government. The Embassy also feels that the Communists murdered many South Koreans, probably thousands, including children of officials who were with the ROK Government at the time. 3 4Phi Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 48037T PrEinliELIT EUROPE j6 OCT 1950 1420 1, YUGOSLAVIA: Formal request for US aid to be made-ATS Ambassador Allen in Belgrade reports that, in a discussion �� of Yugoslavia's food requirements, Tito agreed that Yugoslavia should make a formal request for US aid to alleviate the grow- ing Yugoslav food shortage. In connection with the long-range problem of obtaining a loan to continue Yugoslavia's major in- dustrialization program, Tito said he felt confident that a com- promise could be reached between the international agency considering the loan and the Yugoslav Government. Allen com- ments that Tito showed little surprise and no resentment at Allen's statement that $400 million additional credits was. much larger than Yugoslavia could repay. On the basis of this interview? which was friendly throughout, Allen says he is "inclined to think that Tito is now favoring the more moderate elements in his � government. 5/5 FAR EAST 2. Possible Chinese Communist intervention in Korea�According to US Embassy Hague, the Netherlands Government has been informed by its Charge in Peiping that "reliable sources" have stated that four divisions oL unidentified troops,, presumed to be Chinese, have crossed the Manchurian border into. North Korea. (CIA Comment: There have been numerous reports during recent weeks regarding four Chinese Communist units (variously identified as Armies and Divisions) which are alleged tO have crossed into Korea from Manchuria, and the Netherlands Charge's 'report may be a repetition of these earlier claims CIA continues to believe that the .Chinese Communists, while continuing to assist the North Koreans; probably will not intervene openly in the present fighting in Korea.) /16.44y 5 T (COM T D o cument NO. NO CHANGE in Class. 0. DECLASSIFIED Class. CIA1103D TO: MA Memo, 4 Auth: DDA R3G. 77 Date vz MAR 1978 0 TS S Apr 77 1763 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 Approved for Release: 2019/01/62 C06749455 TOP SECRET 3. INDOCHINA: French Socialists divided over Indochina policy-- C/415 US Minister Bohlen in Paris reports that although there is no disunity among French Socialists on the necessity of continuing 5/5 the struggle against Communism in Indochina, there is a difference Cbt� among party leaders as to how the Indochina problem should be em cleared up. According to Bohlen, a majority of the party leaders believe that taking the problem to the Security Council would almost P4(5 constitute an invitation to the Chinese Communists to assume an� col is even more active role in Indochina. On the other hand, Secretary General Mollet is reported to be so convinced of the long-term weakness of the French position in Indochina that he is ready to "duinp not Only the military but the civil problem into the lap of the United Nations." Bohlen adds that the Socialists are also divided on the wisdom of appealing for US troops now, but such assistance would probably be desired in event of an invasion of Indochina by the Chinese Communists. � ;.1 1' -2 Ma 174 E T 3.3(h)(2) Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 1ft Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 TOP SECRET French evacuation plans-4n a conversation with US Minister Heath in Saigon, French Hip Commissioner Pignon stated that he was not yet "worried' about the Tonkin delta region (the main French area of control in North Vietnam), but he admitted that plans for the evacuation of the civilian 'population had been prepared. In Pignon's opinion, the danger was not "immediate and French troops could hold the area ,with "accelerated aid." although the French position in the delta area could normally be held; it is now completely open to "undermining from behind the lines. with the exception of French sympathizers, the population is in general "cautiously pleased" by the recent French military reverses, and comments that the local attitude of "wait and see' can change overnight. - 3 - E T 3.3(h)(2) 3.3(h)(2) Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 TOP SECRET THE AMERICAS C kuttAtil 5. BRAZIL: Cooperation with US may lessen--US Embaspy Rio de Janeiro transmits a public statement by Getulio Vargas (former dictator of Brazil who now has a substantial lead in the balloting for president) that "his government will be of a laborist orientation, like that of England and the Scan- dinavian countries," and evolutionary in character. Vargas ex- pressed confidence that the present government would fulfill its promise of a normal transfer of public power. Vargas promised "more intimate and closer collaboration with the nations of our� Hemisphere"; he also stated that while favoring entry of foreign investments generally, he opposed foreign capital investment in sectors which could be covered by local capital or which must be controlled by the nation. (CIA Comment: Vargas now leads his nearest opponent by 1.2 million votes, with 75 percent of the estimated ballots tabulated. Vargas will probably be the next President of Brazil, and although he will not be openly hostile to the US, his extreme nationalism may reduce somewhat Brazil's close cooperation with the US.) SPAIRDENTA TOP SECR T Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 4RMIP Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 TOP SECRET 11114.48494/7411 GENERAL 1. SC discussion of Ambon dispute opposed--US Ambassador Cochrane at Jakarta expresses the opinion that "most serious international complications" could arise if the UN Security Council discusses the current Ambon dispute. In addition to the opportunities offered to the Soviet Union by such a debate, Cochrane believes that if the matter comes � before the UN the whole question of the powers and composi- � tion of the UN Commission for Indonesia will be aired. Such � a development might prejudice any chances of The Nether- lands and Indonesia reaching agreement on the disposition of New Guinea and might also open the way for India's parti- cipation in UNCI and an undesirable extension of Indian in- fluence in' Indonesia. Cochrane also believes that the SC debate would -arouse violent Dutch-Indonesian recriminations, , � which have thus far been covered up, and. that the resultant incitement of sensitive national feeling in Indonesia could cause the dissolution of the Dutch-Indonesian union and the loss of all Dutch major interests in Indonesia. 2. French pessimistic over Indochina--In a conversation with US Minister Bohlen in Paris, Baeyens, Director of Far East- ern Affairs of the French Foreign Office, expressed the view that the Letourneau-Juin mission to Indochina is not likely to accomplish much in the face of the serious military situation. Baeyens pointed out that it is of no use to send new recruits to Indochina, reinforcements cannot be sent from metropolitan France and can be "ill spared" from North Africa. Baeyens also anticipates a stormy debate on Indochina when the French National Assembly convenes. Bohlen comments that Baeyens may be deliberately assuming a pessimistic attitude in an effort to support French appeals for UN aid. T 0 P Leaff Document No. vi, 34 OCT 195U 1419 NO CHANGE in Class. DECLASSIFIED Class. CHANCED TO: TS S DDA Memo, 4 Apr 77 Auth: DDA 77/1763 Date:2 4 Milo n 1978 By: 0 � 3 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 Itj Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 itt � rliff T 3. British views on French-Indochinese relations--The UK Foreign Office has informed US Embassy London that at a recent conference in Singapore with British officials, General Carpentier, French Commander in Indochina, expressed his awareness of the need for poli- tical action to strengthen the weak Vietnam Government. Carpentier said that the French have given Vietnam more responsibility than is generally realized,, and that some means must be found to convince world opinion as well as the Vietnamese of-the sincerity of French intentions to transfer control to the Vietnam Government as soon as possible. Carpentier expressed the belief that the greatest contribution the UK could make would be to Impress upon India that the French were sincere in this regard and that it was of vital importance to prevent the Chinese Communists from overrunning Indochina. Accord- ing to US Embassy London, the Foreign Office, believing it is up to the French themselves to win over Nehru, is planning to suggest to French Foreign Minister Schuman that mere implementation of the 8 March agreements is inadequate under present circumstances and that the French Government should issue a formal statement of intention to grant Vietnam independence within a fixed period of perhaps ten years. - 2 - T TINFit T Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 6E5 4R1116 Vartinv CRET 4" work' GENERAL 18 OCT 195U 1419 I. British oppose SC handling of Ambon dispute--According � 55 to US Embassy London, the decision of the UN Commission / for Indonesia to refer the current Ambon dispute to the C /AA Security Council is causing considerable misgiving in the British Foreign Office. UK diplomatic officials fear that � the Western Powers may have to assume a neutral position in the dispute and that the USSR will then be able to seize the opportunity to pose as an enemy of colonialism and a cham- pion of the Asiatic nations, a stand which India would doubtless support. The Foreign Office is tentatively taking the position that the UK delegation should attempt to prevent UN considera- tion of the Ambon problem, in anticipation of the possibility that the military action will be concluded in Indonesia shortly, thereby presenting the Security Council with an accomplished fact. Meanwhile, the Department of State has instructed US Ambassador Cochran at Jakarta to impress upon the Indonesian Government the desirability of accepting the good offices of the UN Commission for Indonesia in settling the Ambon dispute. Cochran is to point out that a Security Council discussion of the subject is likely to raise questions concerning the degree to which Indonesia has fulfilled the conditions of the 1949 Hague Round Table Conference settlement. :ft FAR EAST 2. INDOCHINA: French admit grave defeat--US Legation Saigon reports that General--Cmentier, commander of French Forces in the Far East, recently acknowledged the gravity of the French defeat near Caobang. Stating that the five trapped battalions represented the "very best" of French forces in Indochina, T SPNROERM T Document No. NO CHANGE in Class. DECLASSIFIED Class. CTIA:MED TO: TS . . DDA Memo, 4 Apr 77 A ua tt:2 4 NIAR 79 :DDAEZ1G9.77/ B1 y76: 3 D 0 3. Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 � Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 TOP SECRET Carpentier admitted that the only remaining reserve unit capable of immediate action in North Vietnam was a single paratroop battalion in Hanoi. Estimating Frenchlosses at "around 2,500 men," Carpentier declared that the guerrilla type of war has now ended in the north; h6 indicated the French force had been "demolished" by 10,000 Viet Minh troops op- erating with modern efficiency, having good artillery support, and fighting "on orthodox lines." Carpentier expressed the opinion that under these circumstances further "determined" Viet Minh attacks could force the French to abandon the re- maining eastern frontier posts from Langson down to Moncay. - 2 - Tb Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 Approved for Release: 201.9/01/02 C06749455 4PICY41 Ist (em T 0 P 1417 12 OCT 1950 GENERAL 1. French sentiment regarding German rearmament--US Embassy Paris transmits the opinion of Secretary General Colin of the Popular Republican Party (MRP) that, once certain conditions have been met, the French Government could rally a substantial majority in the National Assembly to support a motion favoring the incorporation -of dernian units in European defense forces. Colin feels the primary con- ditions necessary for approval of German rearmament by the French National Assembly are: (a) that West European defense forces be established on a unified basis; (b) that rearmament of West-European nations be well under way; and (c) that im- plementation of the Schuman Plan be commended. The Embassy comments that this report testifies to the "tremendous change" in the attitude of the Assembly since the summer of 1949, and expresses the opinion that the conditions of German rearma- ment mentioned by Colin genuinely reflect the present feeling of most Frenchmen. 2. UNCI refers Ambon dispute to Security-Council�The United Nations Commission for Indonesia (UNCI). has referred the Ambon dispute to the Security Council tor -Consideration, and suggests that the SC call upon the Indonesian Government to utilize existing UN machinery for a peaceful solution of this problem. UNCI, in explaining its action, reports that it has been unable to obtain adequate cooperation from the Indonesian Government to work out a peaceful settlement of hostilities be- tween the Indonesians and the rebel "South Moluccas Republic" on Ambon Island. Document No. 0 10 NO CHANGE in Class. - 0 DECLASEI2I' Class. 7.) Tl: TS SI DDA Anr 77 Auth: DD -744 � F ,Date: I�. RET Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 3.3(h)(2) 3. Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 TOP SECRET EUROPE 4. CZECHOSLOVAKIA,: Soviet pressure increasing�US Am-. bassador Briggs in Prague has been informed3.3(h)(2) that in addition to .a heavy Soviet hand in the affairs of the Czechoslovak -Army, there has been a. considerable increase In demands on and coi4rol of the Czechoslovak i economy.. Czech Ministers were told 3.3(h)(2) eft? 3.3(h)(2) - 2 - TNROE T Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 TOP SECRET at the recent economic meeting in Moscow that the rate of development of heavy industry was unsatisfactory and they were ordered to raise the number of men employed in heavy industries by 300,000 before the end of 1950. the USSR has emphasized that present capacity of Czech machinery must be more fully utilized, urging one or two additional shifts of workers. 5. YUGOSLAVIA: US aid to be discussed with Tito--US Ambas- sador Allen in Belgrade suggests that his forthcoming talk with Tito be confined solely to the question of grant-in-aid for food. Allen believes that the linking of other US-Yugoslav problems with the food issue would be interpreted by Yugoslav officials to mean that the US is using the desperate food situa- � tion as a lever to force a majtir cutback in the Yugoslav indus- trialization program. Allen feels that such an interpretation might cancel the good effect of the US offer of aid and cause the "more reasonable" element of the Yugoslav Government to lose influence in Tito's Government. - 3 - Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 1. � Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 66 GENERAL MacArthur's views on Korean elections--According to Colonel Katzin (UN Secretary General Lie's personal re- presentative with the UN Commission on Korea), General MacArthur has expressed the belief that it is important to hold elections in Korea as soon as possible and by the end of the year at the latest. MacArthur is confident he can handle the situation until the elections without imposing military government "in an obnoxious way" but he feels that, from an over-all security point of view, it will be.much better to have early elections so that the Koreans may take responsibility for their own affairs at an early date. Katzin commented that he did not see how elections could be held as soon as MacArthur desired, but he agreed that elections should be held as soon as possible. 1 OCT 1950 1416 C/R/e4/. 2. Conflict may develop over Yalu Rive/Pi:lower plant--US Embassy Moscow expresses the opinion that the important Suiho hydro- electric plant located on the Korean side of the Yalu River (which constitutes the Korean-Manchurian border) will "doubt- less" become a source of conflict involving Korean, Chinese, and Soviet interests. In support of this view, the Embassy points out that: (a) the plant was originally built by the Japanese and designed to supply both Korea and a part of Manchuria; and . (b) through a Sino-Soviet trust, the plant recently provided power for the Liaotung Peninsula, where Port Arthur and Dairen are located. The Embassy feels that the Chinese Communists may be tempted to occupy_the plant to protect their interests, with the resultant danger of a clash between Chinese and UN forces. Document No, NO CHANGE in Class. . 60c1 i_ 0 DECLASSIFIED Class. CHANCED TO: TS DDA Memo, 4 Apr 77 Auth: DDA tG. 77/1763 Date: Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 By : 0743 > Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 TOP SECRET FAR EAST 3. INDONESIA: MDAP aid rejected�US Ambassador Cochran in Jakarta was informed by Indonesian Foreign Minister Rum that Indonesia does not wish to receive military aid through MDAP. The Foreign Minister emphasized that this action was not indicative of an unfriendly attitude toward the US but derived primarily from his government's fear that: (a) accep- tance of MDAP aid would be widely criticized by Communist countries as an indication that Indonesia "had taken sides";`-' and (b) domestic opposition to the terms of an MDAP agree- ment might result in the overthrow of the present Cabinet, which is already facing a critical vote of confidence. In re- sponse, Cochran pointed out that the Indonesian plan to pur- chase badly needed military equipment on the US market might be impossible as supplies were limited and allocated in advance. 4. INDOCHINA: French reverses serious--US Consul Blancke in C Hanoi transmits an estimate that French forces are having the "fight of their lives" Cfit in e Sino-Tonkin border area northeast of Hanoi. 1;1rench troop reserves in Indochina are practically exhausted an liere are only 400 combat troops left in Hanoi. Blancke admits that Hanoi may be in danger, but he does not feel the Viet Minh are "now organizing a putsch." Meanwhile, as an indication of the seriousness with which the French Government views the military situation, Minister for the Associated States of Indochina Letourneau and General Juin, Commander of French Forces in North Africa, are reported to be leaving immediately for Indochina for an on-the-spot inspection. L� � ���, !,� Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 24o. 3.31(h)(2) 3.3(h)(2) 3.3(h)(.2) Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 TOP SECRET (CIA Comment: The sudden deterioration of the French military position along the China border is probably the result of: (a) effective concentration of Viet Minh forces; (b) excellent � Viet Minh intelligence on the timing of the French evacuation of the anchor post at Caobang; and (c) poor French reconnaissance. Loss of the French border posts will greatly facilitate the move- ment of heavy equipment from China to the Viet Minh.) 5. KOREA: Dismantling of industries by Communists--US Ambas- sador Muceio in Seoul reports that at the time of the UN landing at Inchon, the Communist invaders had been engaged in extensive dismantling of industries located in the Inchon-Seoul area. Among the industrial equipment observed to have been in process of re- m-oval at the time of the Communist retreat from Seoul are textile machinery, transformers at the Tanginri steam plant, and machine tools� of all types at factories located in Seoul, Yongdong Po, and Inchon. Muccio adds that machinery and parts still on premises or in vicinity are being reinstalled. -3 TOP, CRET Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 TOP 48031 . GENERAL 1. Analysis of Soviet press treatment of Germany�US Ambassador Kirk in Moscow expresses the opinion that there is a "striking similarity" between the Soviet Union's propaganda treatment of the first anniversary of the Ger- man Democratic Republic (GDR) and the usual Soviet press treatment of Satellite state anniversaries. Kirk adds that an examination of the Soviet press treatment of the GDR anniversary leads him to believe that the Kremlin is not overly optimistic in regard to the German problem. As possible clues to the Kremlin's thinking, Kirk cites the lack of any mention in the Soviet press of the recent West- ern guarantee of West German territorial integrity and the emphasis on economic successes of the East German regime. EUROPE 2. GERMANY: Exportation of Ruhr coal being resisted--US Representative Livengood on the International Authority for the Ruhr (IAR) reports that the Webt Germans are show- ing an uncompromising attitude without precede* in the allocation of Ruhr coal production. Livengood says the Ger- mans are'cleakly unwilling to accept an z"equal sharing" of Ruhr coal among the nations represented! %Axe International Authority for the Ruhr. The Germans base their posi- tion on an increase in internal needs resultigg from the stepped-up steel production following thff iPecent decisions of the US, UK, and French Foreign Minilters. Livengood � believes the Germans are demanding, as the price for cooperating in the European rearmament program the right to determine their internal coil requirements without inte ference from the IAR. Document No. NO CUANCE in Class. � 1 � 0 DECTLA-.7I-D Class. C ") TO: TS 0 C r- _ 3, 4 Apr 77 Auth: 77 1763 Date : By: _o k.3.. 0 OCT1 1415 SECRET TOPS RET Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 TOP SECRET (CIA Comment: The Germans will exert every effort to use the impending coal shortage and the need for increased steel production for rearmament to press for the elimination of the TAR as one of the major steps in recovering control over their own economic affairs. This new German attitude is also reflected in the recent increase in German demands during the Schuman Plan negotiations.) FAR EAST � 3 INDOCHINA: Vietnamese to insist on greater independence-- (a) Vietnamese Premier Tran Van Huu will be forced to resign because of his failure to obtain the concessions sought by the Vietnamese at the Pau Conference; and (2) Vietnamese consider the Pau Conference a complete failure because the principal issue of customs revenue has not been resolved to their satisfaction. (The Pau Conference was called to reach agreement on the administrative relationships in Indochina between France, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos.) (CIA Comment: There is considerable evidence to support the above views. The absence from Vietnam of Bao Dai and several of his principal ministers during the pro- tracted and thus far fruitless Pau negotiations has already seriously hampered both the development of a working Viet- namese administration and the implementation of US economic and military aid programs for Indochina. If Bao Dai and his government leaders continue to stay in France, the possibility of a successful solution of the Indochinese problem will be seriously reduced.) - 2 T 0 ESCAFRIIE T Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 TOP SECRET 4. INDONESIA: Ambonese resisting Indonesian troops--The e 1A15 US representative on the UN Commission for Indonesia reports from Jakarta that he has information indicating the Indonesian military action against Ambon (where the natives have declared themselves independent) is not going well. According to the US representatives sources, Indonesian Government troops have been driven back slightly and, although Ambonese troops may be forced to surrender eventually because of food and ammunition shortages, they are proving to be superior fighters. (CIA Comment: Large numbers of Ambonese have been used for years in the Dutch forces in Indonesia because of their excellent fighting qualities. In the agreement to disband Dutch forces in Indonesia, the Ambonese were given the choice of joining the Indonesian army or being repatriated. About 20,000 repatriates are now located in camps throughout lava. Although many of these 20,000 are disarmed, they are still capable of causing serious disturbances.) THE AMERICAS T 0 P EWE T Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 e tA (5 3.3(h)(2) 48030 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 TOP S 9 OCT 1950 66 1414 1 RET ECRE.T. � I GENERAL I. Chinese Communists intervention in Korea discounted-- US Ambassador Murphy, in Brussels has been informed by a high official of the Belgian Foreign Office that the Belgian 'Government, which has many contacts in China, has no in- formation "of, a disturbing nature" regarding the possibility of direct military intervention in Korea by the Chinese Com- munists. The official expressed the opinion, that the recent statements of Chou En-lai, Chinese Foreign Minister, should be closely.examined because the Chinese were evidently pre- pared to make equivocal statements to please the -Russians, without, however, making a definite commitment to act openly in Korea. The Belgian official also pointed out that present Chinese obligations were great and their supply and economic situation very difficult. (CIA Comment:� Communist China has carefully re- frained from making a public commitment to aid North Korea by direct intervention. Public and private threats by Communist China officials to intervene directly in North Korea have prob- ably been designed primarily to deter UN forces from going beyond the 38th Parallel.) EUROPE 2. BELGIUM: Supreme commander for NATO favored--US Ambas- sador Murphy in Brussels transmits the opinion of former Bel- gian Premier Spaak that the Western Europeans would "more eagerly" improve their defense effort if some outstanding person were appointed supreme commander of the forces of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and if that person had "very large ppwers70 over those forces. Spaak also feels that the "more. SECRET TOP CRET Document No. Pro-1 NO CHANGE in Class. 0 0 DECLASSIFIED Class. C-IA"C=D TO: TS DDA Memo, 4 Apr 77 Auth: DDA n-c. 77/1763 Date: 1,71$11% By: 0Vci Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 r"��� �IF Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 006749455 TOP SECRET cautious" US proposal for a chief of staff, to be succeeded later by a supreme commander, would not arouse much enthusiasm in Europe. 3, FRANCE: German participation in defense gaining favor-- US Ambassador Bruce reports that the trend of thinking in France continues to be toward the eventual acceptance of a German role in an integrated Western European defense, with the question now becoming that of timing rather than that of German participation. Bruce adds that another growing concern of the�French now appears to be whether the Germans are to be rearmed at the expense of French rearmament. C 4. GERMANY: Concern expressed over effects of US Security Act-- CM' USTigh Commissioner McCloy in Bonn has learned that the West German Consul General Krekeler in New York, now in Ch9 Bonn for consultations, is "enormously concerned" about the repercussions in West Germany of the US Internatiorial Security Act Krekeler is worried about the unfavorable effect the act might have on the exchange program which, he feels is very im- portant for drawing German youth firmly into the Western camp and for furthering the cause of democracy in Western Germany. Meanwhile, US Representative Cowan in Hamburg expresses the opinion that economic contacts between German and US enterprises will doubtless suffer so long as the restrictions of the Security Act ;remain in effect, thus considerably impairing trade relations. � 5. YUGOSLAVIA: Joint aid in food crisis:proposed�US Ambassador C/05) Allen in Belgrade reports that the British and French Embassies and Canadian Legation there are concerned about the timeliness and adequacy of outside aid to Yugoslavia needed to prevent 2 - E T Anoroved for Release: 2019/01/02 006749455 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 TOP SECRET ' human suffering and excessive slaughter of livestock as a result of the recent crop shortages. The British, French and Canadian representatives agreed that: (a) essential items should be collected and shipped without delay in order to per- mit distribution within Yugoslavia before winter weather hampers the already overburdened transportation system; and (b) out- right grants would be preferable to credits for food and feed purchases. 3 14153- SECgET 17-4216,471/14i; Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 48029 SECRET 1,- 7 OCT 1951) 1413 GENERAL 1. UK suspension of arms shipments to Egypt�According to 5/7g US Embassy London, a highForeign Office official has stated that the suspension of arms shipments to Egypt was decided primarily on the grounds that certain types of armament were needed for UK,. Commonwealth and NAT defenses. The British official commented that the unfavorable development of the recently-suspended defense talks between the UK and Egypt had persuaded the UK not to make an exception to the priority distribution of arms; he added, however, that the British Govern- ment had presented the arms suspension to the Egyptians as a purely defense decision, leaving the Egyptians to draw their own conclusions. EUROPE 2. YUGOSLAVIA�US may be asked for grant-in-aid--US Ambas- sador Allen in Belgrade reports that he has been informally approached by. the Yugoslav Planning Director, Boris Kidric regarding the prospects for obtaining a US grant-in-aid to alleviate Yugoslavia's critical food shortage during the next eight months. Kidric estimated that Yugoslavia's crop losses from the drought would total $100,000,000 and that food and feed imports needed between now and the 1951 harvest would be approximately 460,000 tons. Allen commented_to Kidric that the, projected grant-in-aid might encounter some difficulties and Kidric said he would again discuss the matter with Allen before making the formal request for US aid. � SECRET T-err�S-E-e-irrf 3/5 0 "2 � Document No. NO CHANGE in Class. DECLA7.77:: Class. C ' 71: TS D=A , �4 Apr?? Auth: DD -7 /1763 Date: 21' Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 By: . r . Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 TOP SECRET 3. AUSTRIA: ,Soviet interference during recent disorders-- ei4/3 US Charge Dowling in Vienna reports that the Austrian Government feels that the most serious incident during the recent disorders was the Soviet intervention in Wiener Neustadt where gendarmes from Vienna expelled demonstrators from the post office only to be expelled later by orders of the Soviet town commander. Dowling "understands" that the Austrian Government has decided to send telegrams to the four occupation headquarters protesting the Soviet town com- manders action and requesting that his orders be countermanded. 4. SWEDEN: Investigation of alleged US bombing in China--US Embassy Stockholm reports that the Swedish Government will cooperate in an informal investigation of Communist China's charges that US planes bombed targets in Manchuria. The Embassy adds that the Swedish Government has indicated it is prepared to take prompt action to designate a representative for this purpose. 71 SECRETdikin Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 `VT3 , Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 �.. ARCHIVAL RECORD PLEASE RETURN TO AGENCY ARCHIVES, Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 48027 TQP SECRET 1,_C_ONFIDENTIALL GENERAL I. US stresses need for prompt UN action on Korea--The Department of State, as a result of reports that the Netherlands Delegation to the UN would sponsor the idea � of suspending hostilities in Korea for two weeks in order to explore all avenues of a peaceful settlement, has in- � structed Ambassador Van Roijen at The Hague to urge the Netherlands Government "in the strongest terms" not to take such action. In stressing the need for prompt and firm action on Korea by the UN, the Department points outthat North Korean forces are withdrawing as rapidly as possible with the obvious intent of regrouping and reforming behind the 38th Parallel. The Department adds that the North Koreans have shown no indication they intend to comply with General MacArthur's call to cease hostilities. As further evidence that the North Koreans plan to continue fighting as long as possible, the Department points out that considerable amounts of military supplies are continuing to flow into North Korea from the northern bofders. EUROPE 2. AUSTRIA: � Inflation dangers--US Charge Dowling in Vienna expresses fear that inflation and related labor unrest will develop regardless of the wage -price agreement recently achieved. Dowling says that price increases in addition to those provided for in the agreement seem inevitable, and there will be constant danger that the Trade Union Federa- tion may be forced to make new wage demands, which would add to present inflationary pressures. Dommenti 0� SO CHANGE in Class. L_Irl ID DECLASSIFIED (Class . � C:r./121-C2D .TO: TS DDA Memo, 4 Apr. 77 .Authip DA REG. 77 /763 I. Date: :0 OCT 1950 1412 CIAIS Martel E T . Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 By: �--- Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 TOP SECRET (CIA Comment: CIA agrees with the above estimate. If the standard of living is again reduced, the trade union leaders will be forced to make new wage demands more quickly than they have in the past.) 3. SWEDEN: Air force operations may be curtailed--The US Military Attache in Stockholm expresses the opinion that . US failure to permit export of aviation gas to be used by the Swedish Air Force can practically ground that service and will, at least, seriously curtail its operations. (CIA Comment: Of the air forces of Western Europe, the Swedish Air Force is second in size only to that of the UK. Sweden is steadily modernizing its air arm, which con- sists largely of fighter planes, both jet and conventional.) 4. UNITED KINGDOM: Plans for increased stockpiling--Repre- C sentatives of the British Board of Trade have advised US Embassy London that the UK Government has recently decided to stockpile a variety of strategic materials in substantial quantities. The program is designed primarily to stockpile those strategic materials which may be difficult to obtain in wartime because of shipping difficulties or loss of the source. The Embassy reports that the UK is anxious to coordinate with the US the purchase of items to be stockpiled. TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 -Rb 4.-7-37;r7d. Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 48026 be (7) 08NFI T 5 OCT 1950 1411 GENERAL 1. US view on Chinese intervention in Korea--The Department of d/P/5 State, in examining the possibility of the Chinese Communists de- fending North Korea if 11N forces cross the 38th Parallel, expresses the view that the only question is the extent of Chinese intervention in Korea. In support 9f this view, the Department points out that Manchuria is now a very important source of supply for North Korea and that 20-30,000 Chinese-trained troops of Korean origin have already been sent to the North Korean army. The Department feels that any Chinese Communist statements re- garding intervention at this time can only be designed to dis- suade UN members from supporting firm UN action. The Department emphasizes that a hostile army in the field is' continuing operations against UN forces and that any delay in a UN decision on Korea could� only-result in increased defiance of the UN, as well as placing further difficulties in the way of � achieving a unified Korea. 2. Danish opinion favors crossing 38th Parallel--US Amb-agatior Anderson in Copenhagen reports that the recently-expressed � fears of the Danish Prime Minister that Danish support would be lost if UN forces crossed the 38th Parallel are not being confirmed by the current trend in press comment or public opinion. The Ambassador comments that the magnitude and speed of the UN advances in Korea seem to have overcome recent Danish apprehension; she adds, however, that these Danish anxieties 'may be expected to remain just under the surface." Li Ahtliment NO. 00 CIA 410 CaANGE in Class. 0 A � .0 DECL'ASSIkED 1 - Class. CHANGED �TO: S DDA Memo; 4 Apr 77 �Auth: DDA REG.:77/1763 Date 0 MAR 1978 By Z, 3 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 � Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 It Top SECRET EUROPE � 3. THE NETHERLANDS: Delay in extending military service-- US Ambassador Chapin in The Hague reports that although Dutch Prime Minister Drees is prepared to continue the military service of most Dutch conscripts beyond 12 months � "If necessary for technical reasons," he refuses to make an official public decision in the matter. Chapin adds that Mar- shal Montgomery is expected to make an "emphatic representa.- tion" to Drees regarding the necessity for extending the military service term to 18 months. According to Chapin, the British Ambassador at The Hague believes that the Dutch will eventually "fall in line,'' efa t.1 NEAR EAST - AFRICA � 4. CEYLON: Suggested strengthening of defense--US Embassy S London reports that the Government of Ceylon has suggested that the UK underwrite an expanded Ceylon defense program and has intimated that the US should also be called upon to help. The Government of Ceylon apparently feels that it should provide men and sites for bases in return for Western arms and equipment. The Embassy comments that the UK will probably reject the Ceylonese approach and suggest that Ceylon Itself assume greater responsibility for improving its security position. FAR EAST � /5. INDOCHINA: French militaty tactics in Indochina�The Com- cis S manding general of French forces in the Far ,East, General Carpentier, in discussing the recent abandonment of several TOP SECRET .Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 TOP SECRET northern border posts by French forces, stated that the primary French aim was the defense of the"useful" portions of North Vietnam. Carpentier declared that the abandoned border posts, which had previously been import- ant for collecting intelligence, hindering Sino-Viet Minh - collaboration, and disarming fleeing Chinese Nationalist remnants, were no longer worth the military risks." (Mean- while, press reports quote a French communique to the effect that the frontier post of Caobang has been abandoned, making a total of four such points given up by the French since 18 Sep- tember.) 6. KOREA: Situation in South Korean capital--US Ambassador Muccio in .Seoul, in reviewing the situation in the South Korean capital since the entrance of UN forces, reports that the population appears to be genuinely happy to see the UN forces and to be relieved of the intolerable Communist occupation. The Ambassador confirms earlier press reports of general devastation and destruction throughout Seoul, but points out that a considerable part of the destruction of larger structures seems to be the result of fires started by the Com- munists prior to their departure. Mucci� adds that the Govern- ment of Korea is approaching the problem of reprisals against collaborators cautiously, having already called on the population to exercise restraint; he feels that the 'revenge problem" is somewhat easier because the Communists took several thousand collaborators and hostages with them. ' I � 3 TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 Gr'1) � Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 4 OCT 1950 48025T GENERAL T 1. Schuman favors French-German defense agreement�At the close of the North Atlantic Council discussions in New �york, French Foreign Minister Schuman remarked that "he was thinking" of personally taking the initiative re- garding German participation in a North Atlantic defense force. Schuman added that he realized the importance of France "not being dragged along"; he mentioned as a device to bring about some sort of French-German agreement, the possibility of a common French-German defense budget that -the other Western European governments might join. 1410 2. Kirk's views on Chou En-lai statement�US Ambassador Kirk In Moscow, in evaluating the significance of Chinese Foreign Minister Chou En-lai's statement to the Indian Ambassador in Peiping that Chinese troops will intervene in North Korea if UN troops cross the 38th Parallel, expresses surprise - that a message of such serious nature was not conveyed more � directly either to the UN or the US. Kirk reports that the � British Embassy in Moscow concurs with the US Embassy "speculation" that Chou En�lai's statement may be a last-minute Chinese attempt to play upon Indian apprehension in order to retain for China and the USSR whatever can yet be salvaged from the Korean situation. 3. 119N E T el0 S "NO CHANGE in Class. 0 DECLASSIFIED Class. CHANGED TO: IS DDA Memo, 4 Apr 77 Auth : A DADA REG. 71763 1 Date : MAR 197vsl. 01.0 � � Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 01,0 ...- � Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 (-1 TOP SECRET EUROPE 4. AUSTRIA: Communists may shift to ecoriomic.issues According to US Charge Dowling in Vienna, the most im- portant factors in the recent strikes and demonstrations in Vienna and eastern Austria were: (a) the overtness of Soviet instigation and assistance; and (b) the ineffectiveness of the Austrian police. Dowling reports that Austrian Govern- ment leaders are now thoroughly alarmed by the situation and � determined to prevent a recurrence of the outbreaks. Dowling thinks the Austrian Communist Party may have decided to con- centrated on economic issues; he suggests that the USSR may have decided that it can, with impunity, openly aid the Austrian Communist Party in exploiting economic issues, despite the obvious violation of the Allied Control Agreement. Dowling expresses the view that, if the USSR has decided upon such a� course, "grave difficulties" can be created by imposing a severe strain on the Austrian Government and economy. 2 TOP CRET Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 48074 " Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 TOP 3 OCT 1950 1 4 ng GENERAL 1. Possible Chinese Communist intervention in Korea--US E mbassy London transmits a report from the UK Foreign Office that Chinese Communist Foreign Minister Chou En- lai called in Indian Ambassador Panikkar in Peiping on 3 October and informed him that if UN armed forces crossed the 38th Parallel, China would send troops across the frontier to participate in the defense of North Korea. Chou En-lai re- portedly added that this action would not be taken if only South Korean forces crossed the Parallel. (CIA Comment: The Chinese Communists have long had the capability for military intervention in Korea on a scale sufficient to materially affect the course of events in - Korea, and they now are supporting Soviet effortsjo intimi- date and divide the US and its UN allies over the issue of crossing the 38th Parallel. CIA estimates, however, that the Chinese Communists would not consider it in their interests to intervene openly in Korea if, as now seems likely, they anticipate that war with the UN nations would result. I. The "reliability and accuracy" of the source of this report are open to question. It is also entirely possible that he is being used by the Chinese Communists to plant this information in an effort to influence US and UK policy.) EUROPE g. GERMANY: Schumacher's views on defense role--US High Commissioner McCloy in Bonn has been informed by West German Socialist leader Schumacher that he believes the Germans would consider sharing in the defense of their country only after being firmly convinced by a sizeable in- crease in US forces in Germany that there is a real chance sin Document No. ARID XHANGE in Class. 0 T] DECLASSIFIED 'Class. CHANGED TO: 7S S DDA M.3mo, 4 Apr 77 -Auth: DDA REG. 77/1763 2Date: BY: 2 0 NuAR Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455. as03.7 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 TOP SECRET � to defend West Germany "as far east as possible." (The cooperation of the Socialist Party will be essential to West German participation in any West European defense system.) Schumacher visualizes German participation in the form of �a mobile force for which he thinks the Germans are traditionally and psychologically best equipped. In regard to the projected� West German police force, Schumacher felt it was of the "utmost importance" for the police to be strictly separated from the military. After a discussion of the police proposal with McCloy, � Schumacher expressed the opinion that the police plan was "work- able." 3. YUGOSLAVIA: Tito-Kremlth relations unchanged--US Ambas- sador Allen in Belgrade reports that although there are in- dications the USSR is adopting a "milder tone" in various countries, he has seen no evidence of any shift in the Soviet attitude toward Tito. The Ambassador doubts that the rumored "secret meetings" between Yugoslav and Soviet representatives have taken place. Allen concludes that although Marxists both in and out of the Cominform might like to be reunited, he does not believe Tito or any responsible member of his regime would either take the initiative toward a rapprochement or listen to any overtures from Moscow with anything but the greatest of skepticism.. (CIA Comment: CIA concurs with Ambassador Allen's estimate.) NEAR EAST-AFRICA 4 Afghans penetrate Pakistani territory�US Embassy Karachi has been told by the Pakistani Foreign Secretary that 500 Afghan tribesmen and army regulars penetrated Pakistani territory near Domandai, Baluchistan, during the night of - 2 'LOP, SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 5 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 . TOP SECRET 30 September4 October. The Embassy reports that the Pakistani military commander in that area has orders to� expel the invaders but not to pursue 'them across the Afghan border, and that Pakistani air reconnaissance is on the lookout for other troop concentrations or movements. (CIA Comment: This incident is indicative of the strained relations existing between Afghanistan and Paki- stan, largely as a result of Afghan provocation. Pakistan should have little difficulty in expelling the invaders and no serious trouble is likely to arise from this incident.) FAR EAST 5. INDOCHINA: International force proposed for Indochina-- C fif The Commanding General of French forces in North Vietnam, ' � General Alessandri, has informed US Consulate Hanoi of his personal hope that a UN international force, such as that in Korea, may be made available for use against the Viet Minh � in Indochina. Alpssandri admitted that Korea was "politically different," but said that Chinese Communist assistance to the Viet Minh paralleled the Korean situation. He added that ten additional battalions in North Vietnam would allow him to "thumb his nose" at the Viet Minh but that, without these addi- � tional troops, he must keep his own main force in the delta area and risk the possibility that the increasingly strong in- surgents may "spill across the Red River" into the region of Annam and the associated state of Laos. 6. INDONESIA: Government attacks Ambon insurgents--The US . representative on the UN Commissibn-for Indonesia (UNCI) � reports that information from Dutch sources indicates an � abandonment of Indonesian efforts to achieve a peaceful TOP SEC,,RET Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 1 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 TOP SECRET solution to the Ambon uprising. Indonesian troops reportedly attacked Ambon on 29 September and landed additional forces on 1 and 2 October, Although Indonesian Government officials have not confirmed the attack, Foreign Minister Rum has told US Ambassador Cochran that military action against Ambon had been recommended. Rum, in an effort to explain his govern- ment's rejection of UNCI good offices in settlement of the in- surrection, expressed the opinion that involvement of a United Nations group in the dispute would "encourage" the "rebellious parties" and "could even do unpredictable harm." -.. TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 48023 9 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 rfiltill GENERAL 2 OCT 1408 I. Nationalists concerned over US Taiwan glans�US Embassy Taipei reports that the Chinese Nationalist Foreign Minister and other high officials are concerned over US aims regard- ing Taiwan. According to the Embassy, the Chinese--both Nationalist and Communist--are evidently convinced that the US has already formulated a long-range plan for Taiwan, perhaps in conjunction with the UK. As a result, the current US attitude on the Taiwan issue is regarded by the Nationalists as "something less than frank." In summarizing his govern- ment's attitude, the Nationalist Foreign Minister informed the Embassy that he would very much like to go along with the US in UN neetiations, but that he must "first know where the US is going . EUROPE 2. UNITED KINGDOM: Analysis of political trends--US Embassy London, in an analysis of recent political developments, ex- presses doubt that "the Government will decisift to hold an election this fall" and believes that at the Labor Party con- ference beginning 2 October the party, under. Attlee's firm hand, will present a united front. The Embassy -further believes that unless the international situation deteriorates, intense warfare between the Labor and Conservative parties will continue un- 'abated, although neither side will inject major foreign policy or defense issues into the picture and the basic unity of the ' British on fundamental international issues will not be disturbed. bocument No. � 3/I NO CHANGE in Class. ri LJ 0 DECLASSIFIED Class. CHANGED TO: TS S DDA Memo, 4 Apr 77 Auth: DDA REG. 77/1763 Date 0 MAR /978 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 By: 0203 Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455 TOP SECRET FAR EAST 3. KOREA: Report on conditions in Seoul-11S Ambassador .Nluccio reports his return to Seoul and indicates that Virtually all members of the Korean Cabinet headed by President Rhee are in the city and plan to remain. Mucci� says that loss of life and property damage in Seoul and the surrounding area are "terrible and beyond description." Seoul is without water, electricity, and means of communi- cation; food is short and the health hazard is great. He comments that the population is "in dire straits as a result of the harsh experiences of the past three months but is remarkably cheerful in the face of tremendous losses." He concludes that the rehabilitation work has already be- gun and that steps are being taken to bury the dead, demolish the roadblocks, and clear the streets. i � .`�� �1". . Is TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/01/02 C06749455