ASSESSED MANPOWER OF WARSAW PACT FORCES IN THE NATO GUIDELINES AREA, 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP00-01872R001001520001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 7, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 1, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/07: CIA-RDP00-01872R001001520001-6 -
Director of
Central
Intelligence
Assessed Manpower of
Warsaw Pact Forces in the
NATO Guidelines Area, 1983
Interagency Intelligence Memorandum
ret
Copy 464
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ASSESSED MANPOWER OF
WARSAW PACT FORCES IN THE
NATO GUIDELINES AREA, 1983
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PREFACE
This Interagency Intelligence Memorandum assesses Warsaw Pact
ground and air force manpower in Central Europe (East Germany,
Poland, and Czechoslovakia). It was produced in support of the US
effort to negotiate a mutual and balanced force reduction (MBFR)
agreement and to establish the US position on the size of the Pact forces
in the reduction area. The figures in the Memorandum represent the es-
timated numerical strength, as of 1 January 1983, of all Warsaw Pact
personnel that the United States currently defines as military service-
men subject to MBFR negotiation: that is, "all active-duty uniformed
military servicemen, except naval personnel, in the area of reduction."
The rounded figures depict the US estimate of the number of military
personnel assigned to the rosters of Pact units in Central Europe at the
beginning of 1983 and are not intended to represent the number of
personnel authorized or available for duty on one particular day. In a
Statement of Estimative Confidence, the uncertainty associated with
these point estimates has been quantified.
This Memorandum was prepared under the auspices of the
National Intelligence Officer for General Purpose Forces. It was drafted
by he Central Intelligence Agency and
the Defense Intelligence Agency and was coordinated with
the intelligence components of the Departments of State and Defense
and with the Central Intelligence Agency.
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CONTENTS
Page
PREFACE ................................................................................................................... iii
DEFINITION OF ROUNDING RULES ................................................................. 1
SUMMARY OF CHANGES SINCE THE 1982 ASSESSMENT ............................. 2
STATUS OF SOVIET FORCES MANPOWER ...................................................... 5
TABLE I: SUMMARY ................................................................................................
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DEFINITION OF ROUNDING RULES
With the exception of maneuver division assessments, all printed line item
figures, subtotals, and totals in this Memorandum have been subjected to the following
rounding rules:
Estimated figures
in range
Rounded to
nearest
1 through 49
5
50 through 249
25
250 through 999
50
1,000 through 4,999
100
5,000 through 9,999
250
10,000 and greater
500
Although printed subtotals are rounded, totals have been derived from nonrounded
subtotals (not shown).
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SUMMARY OF CHANGES SINCE THE 1982 ASSESSMENT
This Memorandum presents our estimate of Warsaw Pact man-
power in the NATO Guidelines Area (NGA) as of 1 January 1983. A
comparison of this assessment with our previous one for 1 January 1982
shows a net increase of 14,500 servicemen. The figures indicate an
increase of about 11,000 in the estimate for Pact ground forces and over
3,000 in that for Pact air and air defense forces. Significant changes in
the figures since 1982 are summarized as follows.
Soviet Forces: Previous years' assessments ' of Soviet divisions in
the NGA maintained, although acknowledging considerable uncertain-
ty, that divisional assigned strengths probably were increasing in
proportion to the structural expansion associated with divisional reorga-
nization. Evidence available since January 1982 indicated, however,
that at least for part of the expansion, this was not the case. The
implications of this evidence, coupled with the detection of some
structural contraction,2 resulted in an assessment of Soviet divisional
strengths for 1983 that was 11,800 less than last year's assessment. This
represented' a decrease of 8,500 for the Group of Soviet Forces
Germany (GSFG), 1,000 for the Northern Group of Forces (NGF) and
2,300 for the Central Group of Forces (CGF). The GSFG revision
included the personnel reduction resulting from the conversion of a
motorized rifle division to a tank division.
Analysis of manning data and organization and equipment modifi-
cation resulted in a reduction in our assessment of from 100 to 700 per-
sonnel per division from the 1982 assessment. In terms of assigned
strength as a percentage of war authorizations, our assessment of
motorized rifle and tank divisions is 85 and 90 percent, respectively.
The decrease in divisional manning estimates was partially offset
by a reassessment of the Other Rear Service category. In the 1982
assessment Komendatury were included under this category. In this
assessment Komendatury were considered separately, and troops as-
signed to post exchanges, commissaries, officer clubs, garrison services,
and sports and band organizations were added to Other Rear Services.
This resulted in a net increase of approximately 9,100 in Komendatury
and Other Rear Services.
Motorized rifle regiments of reorganized tank divisions were identified as having two rather than
three motorized rifle battalions.
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Other nondivisional structural and organizational changes with
manpower implications included the identification and assessment of
training area units subordinate to GOFs and armies (+2,500), the
addition of motorized rifle battalions to three independent tank regi-
ments (+1,000), the identification of additional depot units (+1,000),
the addition of three new air assault battalions in GSFG (+900), the in-
crease in the assessment of the nuclear-capable army-level artillery
brigades (+ 600), and the conversion of a signal regiment to a brigade in
CGF (+600). New information and reassessments account for a variety
of additional incremental increases and decreases in individual line
items.
Non-Soviet Forces. In non-Soviet forces, incremental changes in
individual line items accounted for most of the change in our assess-
ment. In East Germany, reassessment of Bezirk/Kreis Staffs (+3,000)
and NCO schools (+500) and the identification of two additional
construction units (+ 1,650) account for the bulk of the increase. In
Poland, a reassessment of schools (+2,000) and the number of trainees
in the 1st Mechanized Division (+ 1,200) account for the change in our
estimate of Polish Ground Forces. In Czechoslovakia a reassessment of
schools resulted in a lower student total (-1,500). Increases in non-
Soviet air and air defense forces mainly were attributable to the
identification of additional radar units.
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STATUS OF SOVIET FORCES MANPOWER
The 1982 estimate described a reduction in estimative confidence
resulting from the continued reorganization and some not yet fully
evaluated evidence of compensatory actions. Evaluation of this and
specific manning data has demonstrated that at least some elements of
the reorganization were achieved without an accompanying increase in
peacetime manning. This data also included some direct evidence
indicating increased differences between peacetime and wartime per-
sonnel authorizations in some subunits, and some additional evidence
identifying previously undetected structural contraction. The general-
ization of this and unit-specific evidence of certain divisional subunit
strengths resulted in lower assessments of division strengths.
This year's assessment pointed up the contrast between direct
manpower evidence and evidence of structural change. While we must
continue to rely on evidence of structural change as our first indication
of potential manpower change, the direct manpower evidence suggests
caution in assuming too rigid a link between the two. Moreover, our as-
sessments of some categories of units, such as training units and rear
service organizations, carry the danger of recounting personnel counted
elsewhere, or of including some civilian personnel. The net effect of
these considerations is an increase in uncertainty associated with our
current estimates of Soviet forces in the NGA.
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Table I
SUMMARY
A. WARSAW PACT MANPOWER IN THE NATO GUIDELINES AREA,
DIVIDED BETWEEN GROUND AND AIR FORCES
(All East European national air defense personnel are counted as air manpower, and
all Pact helicopter personnel in units assigned to or supporting ground forces are
counted as ground manpower.)
Ground
(Divisions)
Air
Total
Soviet
487,500
(280,500)
58,500
545,000 a
East Germany
123,500
(61,500)
38,500
162,000
Poland
234,000
(99,000)
92,500
326,000 a
Czechoslovakia
147,000
(66,000)
57,000
204,500 a
Total Warsaw
Pact
992,000
(506,500) b
246,000 b
1,238,500 b
B. CHANGES IN THE US ESTIMATE OF NUMERICAL STRENGTH OF
WARSAW PACT MANPOWER IN THE NATO GUIDELINES AREA
(This table presents the numerical differences between this estimate and the CIA/DIA
estimate compiled in 1982-see IIM 83-10001.) c
Ground
Air
Total
Soviet
+3,000
+1,000
+ 3,500 a
East Germany
+6,500
+1,000
+7,500
Poland
+3,000
+1,000
+ 3,500 a
Czechoslovakia
-1,500
+500
0 a
Total Warsaw
Pact
+ 11,000
+3,000 b
+ 14,500 a
a Because of rounding rules, totals do not add across.
b Because of rounding rules, totals do not add down.
c See page 2, "Summary of Changes Since the 1982 Assessment," for an explanation of the major
changes.
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GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS
AAA-antiaircraft artillery
Acft-aircraft
Acq-acquisition
AD-air defense
Admin-administrative
AF-air force
Afld-airfield
Ammo-ammunition
Arty-artillery
Bde-brigade
Bmb-bomber
Bn-battalion
CGF-Central Group of Forces
Chem-chemical
Cmd-command
Co-company
COMINT-communications intelligence
Comms-communications
Const-construction
Def-defense
Det-detachment
Div-division
ECM-electronic countermeasures
Engr-engineer
G-guards
GA-guards army
GCI-ground-controlled intercept
Gnd-ground
GSFG-Group of Soviet Forces, Germany
GTA-guards tank army
Hel-helicopter
Hq-headquarters
Ind-independent
Insp-inspector
Intel-intelligence
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Maint-maintenance
MBFR-mutual and balanced force reduction
MD-military district
Med-medical
Misc-miscellaneous
MND-Ministry of National Defense
MP-military police
Msl-missile
NATO-North Atlantic Treaty Organization
NCO-noncommissioned officer
NGA-NATO Guidelines Area
NGF-Northern Group of Forces
No.-northern
POL-petrol (gasoline), oil, and lubricants
PRTB-mobile technical repair base
(from the Russian podvizhnaya remontnaya
tekhnicheskaya baza)
Recce-reconnaissance
R&D-research and development
Rgt-regiment
RR-railroad
SA-shock army
SAA-strategic air army
SAM-surface-to-air missile
Sig-signals
SIGINT-signals intelligence
Spt-support
Sgdn-squadron
SSM-surface-to-surface missile
Tac-tactical
TAF-tactical air force
Tech-technical
Tgt-target
Tng-training
Trans-transport, transportation
VGK-Supreme High Command (from the
Russian Verkhovnoye Glavnokomandovaniye)
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APPENDIX: ORDER-OF-BATTLE MAPS
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