FIRST DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER ARKHIPOV'S VISIT TO CHINA

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP04T00367R000201500001-5
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
T
Document Page Count: 
3
Document Creation Date: 
December 21, 2016
Document Release Date: 
February 17, 2009
Sequence Number: 
1
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
April 11, 1984
Content Type: 
MEMO
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PDF icon CIA-RDP04T00367R000201500001-5.pdf56.35 KB
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Approved For Release 2009/02/17 : CIA-RDP04T00367R000201500001-5 DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE 11 April 1984 First Deputy Prime Minister Arkhipov's visit to China Arkhipov.'s visit to China?next month probably will lead to some further expansion of Sino-Soviet economic relations at a time of continuing impasse over basic security issues. Arkhipov, the highest level Soviet official to travel to China in 15 years, had broad experience as .an China during the 1950s. The Soviets proposed the visit late last.year to?discuss economic and trade issues out.s-ide the context of the ongoing vice foreign ministerial talks. The Soviets have made-similar proposals for talks on "international issues", to develop more channels in order to get at least some movement in Sino-Soviet relations. The Chinese agreed in principle to Arkhipov's visit early this year but, defered it until May, presumably with an eye on the upcoming visit of Pre 'dent Reagan. ..No'precise dates have been announced. 25X1 This memorandum was produced.b the China Division a Asian Anal sis u e s t i o n an comments are we come an m y e? addressed to the Chief of the. China Division Copy 4 of 7 25X15X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2009/02/17 : CIA-RDP04T00367R000201500001-5 I I Possible topics for discussion in the talks include: Measures to increase bilateral trade from its projected 1984 level of.$1.2 billion to a possible level of $5 billion by 1990. -- The establishment of a long term (i.e. five?year),Sino- Soviet trade and/or technical cooperation agreement. guide expanded Sino-Soviet economic interchange. Agreement on all these issues during Arkhipov's visit is unlikely, although we believe the visit could produce some forward movement in all three areas. Moscow has long favored such increased exchanges as a means to gradually normalize Sino- Soviet relations without accommodating Chinese strategic and ?political.demands. I-t probably will also. use the'opportunity of Arkhipov's visit to assess at first hand the prospects for Sin'o- US relations after President Reagan's,visit. 25X1 Beijing recently has shown greater interest in moderate ly increased economic ties with'the USSR as 'a means to enhance its, economic modernization and to demonstrate Chinese ."independence" in foreign affairs. By scheduling the visit in May,, the Chinese doubtless hope that prospects of increased economic interchange and higher level visits with the USSR will strengthen their leverage in upcoming discussions with the United States.