FIRST DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER ARKHIPOV'S VISIT TO CHINA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP04T00367R000201500001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 17, 2009
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 11, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

 Approved For Release 2009/02/17 : CIA-RDP04T00367R000201500001-5
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
11 April 1984
First Deputy Prime Minister Arkhipov's
visit to China
Arkhipov.'s visit to China?next month probably will lead to
some further expansion of Sino-Soviet economic relations at a
time of continuing impasse over basic security issues.
Arkhipov, the highest level Soviet official to travel to
China in 15 years, had broad experience as .an China during the 1950s.
The Soviets proposed the visit late last.year to?discuss
economic and trade issues out.s-ide the context of the ongoing vice
foreign ministerial talks. The Soviets have made-similar
proposals for talks on "international issues", to develop more
channels in order to get at least some movement in Sino-Soviet
relations. The Chinese agreed in principle to Arkhipov's visit
early this year but, defered it until May, presumably with an eye
on the upcoming visit of Pre 'dent Reagan. ..No'precise dates have
been announced.
25X1
This memorandum was produced.b the China Division
a Asian Anal sis
u e s t i o n an comments are we come an m y e?
addressed to the Chief of the. China Division
Copy 4 of 7
25X15X1
25X1
 Approved For Release 2009/02/17 : CIA-RDP04T00367R000201500001-5
I I
Possible topics for discussion in the talks include:
Measures to increase bilateral trade from its projected
1984 level of.$1.2 billion to a possible level of $5
billion by 1990.
-- The establishment of a long term (i.e. five?year),Sino-
Soviet trade and/or technical cooperation agreement.
guide expanded Sino-Soviet economic interchange.
Agreement on all these issues during Arkhipov's visit is
unlikely, although we believe the visit could produce some
forward movement in all three areas. Moscow has long favored
such increased exchanges as a means to gradually normalize Sino-
Soviet relations without accommodating Chinese strategic and
?political.demands. I-t probably will also. use the'opportunity of
Arkhipov's visit to assess at first hand the prospects for Sin'o-
US relations after President Reagan's,visit. 25X1
Beijing recently has shown greater interest in moderate ly
increased economic ties with'the USSR as 'a means to enhance its,
economic modernization and to demonstrate Chinese ."independence"
in foreign affairs. By scheduling the visit in May,, the Chinese
doubtless hope that prospects of increased economic interchange
and higher level visits with the USSR will strengthen their
leverage in upcoming discussions with the United States.