AUSTRALIA'S BOB HAWKE: FACING THE LEFT AT THE LABOR PARTY CONFERENCE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP04T00367R000301830001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 1, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: June 28, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

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Central Intelligence Agency
washingof. D. C. 20505
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
28 June 1984
Australia's Bob Hawke:
Facing the Left at the Labor Party Conference
Summary
The Labor Party's biennial conference in
July will provide Prime Minister Hawke his first
opportunity to shape the party's theoretically
binding policy platform. Since his election in
March 1983, Hawke has reinterpreted and often
ignored the existing platform in pursuit of his
own policy goals, provoking criticism both from
Labor's left wing and some party stalwarts. If
Hawke is able to bring right and centrist elements
of the party together in support of his views in
July--as we expect--the conference will undercut
his critics and project an image of party unity.
This would bolster Labor's chances in the early
elections expected for late this year or early in
1985.
This memorandum was prepared byl I Islands
Branch, Southeast Asia Division, Office o East Asian Analysis.
Information available as of 28 June was used in its
preparation. Comments are welcome and may be directed to he
Chief, Southeast Asia Division,
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I I
A Test of Influence
The Labor Party's biennial conference, scheduled for
9-13 July, will be Hawke's first opportunity to revise the
platform that he inherited when he became party leader in
1983. The platform includes Left-sponsored planks obliging
the party to reaffirm its condemnation of Indonesia's
annexation of East Timor and work for withdrawal of
Australia's peacekeeping force from the Sinai, renewal of
economic aid to Vietnam, reevaluation of the ANZUS alliance,
and a gradual phase out of Australia's uranium industry--all
policies personally opposed by Hawke.
Since his election last year, Hawke has attempted to
reshape party policy to his more moderate views. Because
the Labor Party considers the platform binding, however,
Hawke's policy initiatives have brought persistent and
potentially damaging criticism.) Several times during the
last year, for example, Hawke has been threatened with
censure both by leftwing parliamentarians and some moderate
party stalwarts for his repeated breaches of party
procedure.
Hawke's efforts to recast the ALP platform will be
vigorously opposed by the party's fractious left wing. In
addition to its specific ideological concerns, we believe
the Left will pressure Hawke on a broad range of issues in
order to maintain some measure of leverage and to brighten
its fading image as a viable party faction.
In our judgment, Hawke wants to avoid a damaging
intraparty battle at the conference. Ile recently has made
an effort to improve relations with the Left by reinstating
left wing minister Stewart West to the cabinet and staging a
meeting with the full leftwing caucus to present his
'Labor's platform dictates party policy initiatives during
the two-year period between conferences. All Labor
parliamentarians, including the Prime Minister become subject to
a variety of sanctions--including withdrawal of party
endorsement--if they break ranks. Hawke has tried to rationalize
his departures from the platform by arguing that global events
had rendered the existing policy obsolete.
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economic policies.2 We believe this suggests that Hawke--
aware of the electorate's sensitivity to signs of factional
fighting--is focusing on unifying the party in preparation
for upcoming early elections.
recent gestures of goodwill.
The Issues
Based on press accounts and reporting by the US
Embassy, we believe Hawke will face significant leftwing
resistance at the conference on the following issues:
? Uranium. We believe Hawke will face the greatest
challenge from the Left on the uranium issue because
of the Left's strong ideological commitment to
halting Australia's uranium industry and Hawke's
equally strong determination to liberalize uranium
mining and exports. Australian political observers
in early 1984 reported that the Left had, in
private, conceded defeat because of growing support
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for the industry among the electorate and the
softening of the anti-uranium position of the
Australian Council of Trade Unions. US officials
are now reporting, however, that the Left has.
renewed its fight and is mustering eleventh hour
support. Encouraged by anti-uranium sentiments
expressed at several state ALP conferences, it
appears that although the Left will not have the
strength to reinstate a moratorium on uranium mining
and export, it may be able to force the party to
adopt a platform position banning new uranium
projects.
In addition, there are indications that the Left may
convince the party to back a reimposition the
government's ban on uranium exports to France.
Australia imposed a ban on uranium exports in June
1983 to protest France's continued nuclear testing
in the Pacific. The embargo was imposed as a
gesture of disapproval rather than as a punitive
measure, however, as the next scheduled shipment is
October 1984--after the ban's expiration date.
Although Hawke may be sympathetic to the Left's
demands regarding the ban, we believe he is wary of
further antagonizing the French. In press
statements issued during Foreign Minister Hayden's
May visit to Paris, the French threatened to
retaliate against a renewed Australian ban by
canceling imports of Australia9 coal and urging the
rest of the EC to follow suit.
? Foreign Affairs-ANZUS. In our judgment, the Left
will continue to oppose what it sees as Hawke's
overdependence on the US in foreign policy and will
make its customary appeal for Australia's withdrawal
from the ANZUS alliance. We believe Hawke has
undercut the Left's position, however, with a
recently released draft foreign policy platform.
Without compromising Hawke's important policy
objectives, the draft makes cosmetic gestures to the
Left by reaffirming support for:
3French coal imports from Australia are estimated at US$100
million annually. During fiscal 1982-83, Australia sold almost
$500 million in coal and $1.90 million in uranium to the EC.
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I I
-Regular review of the ANZUS alliance
-Strengthing arms control initiatives
-Increasing Australia's defense capabilities
-Closer relations with nonaligned countries
-Acknowledging the importance of the Asia-Pacific
region in Australia's future.
By placating the Left on these points, we believe
Hawke hopes to maintain fundamental support for
ANZUS and gain ground on other critical issues--
notably strengthening relations with Jakarta by
downgrading the importance of human rights in
determining Australia's stance toward other
countries.
? US-Australian Defense Arrangements. Although the
Left will certainly launch an attack on various
aspects of bilateral defense cooperation, we believe
Canberra's public statement on naval ship visits and
drydocking earlier this year--as well as the
recently released joint statement on the US-
Australian joint facilities--has handicapped the
Left's ability to sway party members to its view.
We believe the joint statement is strengthening
domestic acceptance of the facilities even though it
has renewed criticsm of Hawke by the Left.
? East Timor. The Left's anti-Indonesian position has
been weakened over the past year, largely because of
the favorable findings of a Hawke-appointed
bipartisan parliamentary delegation on conditions in
East Timor. Nonetheless, leftwing ministers are
still pressing for a reaffirmation of Labor's
condemnation of Indonesia's 1975 annexation of East
Timor.
The Left's position will probably be strengthened by
the visit of Fretilin (Timor Liberation Front)
leader Jose Ramos Horta this month. Al.though the
visit has been generally low-key, pro-Fretilin
groups are apparently planning a program of rallies,
press conferences, and possible demonstrations.
Further, US officials indicate that some ALP members
have requested Horta be invited to address the
conference. Hawke's success in fending off leftwing
demands could also be complicated by mounting public
criticism of Indonesia's policies toward ethnic
minorities prompted by the recent record flow of
about 8,000 refugees from Indonesia's province of
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Irian Jaya into neighboring Papua New Guinea. We
believe Hawke will try to mollify the Left with a
proposal which recognizes Indonesia's incorporation
of East Timor while criticizing its method of
annexation.
? Security Services. The Left over the past year has
repeatedly called for the abolition of the
Australian Security Intelligence Organization (ASIO)
and the Australian Secret Intelligence Service
(ASIS) as the result of a number of incidents--
including the involvement of an Australian lobbyist
with the expulsion of a KGB agent and a "bungled"
training raid on a Melbourne hotel widely reported
by the press. Subsequent government investigations
into ASIO and ASIS resulted in recommendations for
reform which have already received the endorsement
of the cabinet. These reform measures should
protect Hawke against significant leftwing gains,
but they are unlikely to pre-emot an embarrassing
debate at the conference.
? Economic Policy. In our judgment, the Left is
planning to regain ground lost to Hawke by focusing
efforts on his conservative economic policies--an
area where it believes it has greater support among
moderate party members. According to political
observers, the most contentious economic issue for
the conference will be the Hawke-Keating proposal to
allow the entry into Australia of between four and
six foreign banks--with up to 50-percent foreign
ownership. Hawke is aware of the widespread party
sentiments against foreign bank entry--it is
officially prohibited by the party's current
platform. Some political analysts believe that
Hawke may not openly raise the banking issue because
of the higher risk of failure, but will instead try
to gain support for overall liberalization of the
ALP economic platform.
Outlook
Hawke will deal with his opponents at the party caucus
from a position of strength. His personal charisma is
generally credited as a major factor in Labor's return to
power after a hiatus of over seven years. Moreover, since
Labor's election victory, Hawke has maintained high approval
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ratings in public opinion polls.4 He has earned the respect
and support of many segments of the business community--
typically wary of Labor governments--and has presided over a
period of relative industrial peace and wage restraint.
Finally, Hawke is reaping political benefits from
Australia's economic recovery, although it is the result of
factors largely beyond his control--including the economic
upturn of Australia's major trading partners and. the end of
a devastating four-yea.r drought.
Political insiders predict the voting breakdown at
roughly 30 for the Right and 30 for the new Center-Left
faction versus 40 for the Left (see chart).5 It thus
appears that Hawke will carry the conference. As a result,
we believe Labor's 1984-86 platform will conform more
closely to the Hawke government's pragmatic actions of the
past year than did the 1982-84 platform. Hawke will still
have to push hard to win substantial gains on individual
issues. With the exception of the uranium and foreign bank
entry issues--on which he will probably settle for a
temporary compromise until after the election--Hawke is
expected to prevail. Nonetheless, Hawke may find that his
leadership role at this year's conference has narrowed his
latitude to stray from.the new platform.
If Hawke follows this firm but conciliatory course--as
we believe he will--the conference will bolster his
political strength for the 1984-85 budget battle in
August. More importantly, a clear show of strength will be
a key political asset as Hawke seeks to increase Labor's
parliamentary majority in early elections, which h
expected to call later this year or early in 1985.
4A recent public, opinion poll showed Hawke's popularity at
a record 78 percent.
5Ninety-nine delegates, comprising state representatives
plus leaders of the state and national parties, will vote at the
conference.
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Chart I
ALP Caucus: Factional Breakdown'
House of Representatives(75)
The Right (29)
Kim Beazley, WA
Lionel Bowen, NSW
John Brown, NSW
John Brumby, Vic
David Charles, Vic
Joan Child, Vic
Robert Chynoweth, Vic
Barry Cohen, NSW
Barry Cunningham, Vic
Ron Edwards, WA
Ross Free, NSW
John Gayler, Qld
Russell Gorman, NSW
Alan Griffiths, Vic
Bob Hawke, Vie
Clyde Holding, Vic
Ben Humphries, Qld
Paul Keating, NSW
Ros Kelly, ACT
Richard Klugman, NSW
John Lindsay, Qld
Leo McLeay, NSW
Michael Maher, NSW
Bill. Morrison, NSW
John Montford, NSW
Gary Punch, NSW
John Reeves, NT
David Simmons, NSW
Ralph Willis, Vic
The Left (20)
Peter Baldwin, NSW
Allen Blanchard, WA
Doug Everingham, Qld
Wendy Fatin, WA
Ken Fry, ACT
Gerry Hanen, Vic
Colin Hollis, NSW
Brian Howe, Vic
Harry Jenkins, Vic
Lewis Kent, Vic
Jeanette McHugh, NSW
Peter Milton, Vic
John Saunderson, Vic
John Scott, SA
Peter Staples, Vic
Peter Steedman, Vic
Andrew Theophanous, Vic
Robert Tickner, NSW
Tom Uren, NSW
Stewart West, NSW
The Center-Left (17)
David Beddall, Qld
Gordon Bilney, SA
Neal Blewett, SA
Ric Charlesworth, WA
Manfred Cross, Qld
Elaine Darling, Qld
John Dawkins, WA
Michael Duffy, Vic-Independent
George Gear, WA
Bill Hayden, Qld
Barry Jones, Vic-Independent
Len Keogh, Qld
Helen Mayer, Vic
John Mildren, Vic-Independent
Lloyd O'Neill, SA
Deane Wells, Qld
Mick Young, SA
The Senate (30)
The Right (8)
Mal Colston, Qld
Gareth Evans, Vic
Gerry Jones, Qld
Doug McClelland, NSW
Robert Ray, Vic
Graham Richardson, NSW
Ted Robertson, NT
Kerry Sibraa, NSW
The Left (12)
Nick Bolkus, SA
Bruce Childs, NSW
John Coats, Tas
Ruth Coleman, WA
George Georges, Qld
Arthur Geitzelt, NSW
Patreia Giles, WA
Jean Hearn, Tas
Gordon McIntosh, WA
Cyril Primmer, Vic
Margaret Reynolds, Qld
Olive Zakharov, Vic
The Centre-Left (9)
John Button, Vic-Ind
Peter Cook, 1VA
Rosemary Crowley, SA
Ron Elstob, SA
Dominic Foreman, SA
Graham McGuire, SA
Susan Ryan, ACT
Michael Tate, Tas
Peter Walsh, WA
Floater-Senate (1)
Don Grimes, Tas (C-L target)
Floaters-House (9)
Bob Brown, NSW (C-L target)
Graham Campbell, WA
Ralph Jacobi, SA (Right)
John Kerin, NSW
Allan Morris, NSW (C-L target)
Peter Morris, NSW (C-L target)
Jim Snow, NSW (Left)
Gordon Scholes, Vic (Right)
Chris Hurford, SA (C-L target)
*Complied by the Australian in consultation with faction members
and on general voting records. Bold print indicates cabinet
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Typescript: Australia's Rob Hawke: Facing the Left at the Labor
Party Conference
EA M-84-10132
Original
1--OEA/ITM
2--OEA/SEAD
1--OEA/NA
T--OEA/C
3--D/OEA
2--C Production/OEA
1-
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l--C/NIC
U7
6
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I --NIO/EA
(7E62)
2--DDI
(7E44)
5--CPAS/IMD/CB
(7G07)
1- -C PES DDI
(7F24)
Defense:
1--LTC James Riordan
I--Bill Mayo
1--Don Berlin
1--John Greenwood
1--Stewart Ring
1--Jay Sloan
State:
1---Paul Wolfowitz
1---Bob Carroll
1--John Dorrance
1--William Brown
1--Robert Brand
1--RADM Jonathan Howe
1--Richard Baker
1--David Lambertson
Treasury:
1--Douglas Mulholland
Conmerce:
1--Bryan Jackson
1--Bill DesRochers
1--Stephen Hall
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NSC:
1--Richard Childress
1--David Laux
1--Gaston Sigur
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