HOW CHINA MAKES FOREIGN POLICY

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
25
Document Creation Date: 
December 22, 2016
Document Release Date: 
June 10, 2010
Sequence Number: 
1
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
January 1, 1985
Content Type: 
REPORT
File: 
AttachmentSize
PDF icon CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5.pdf721.56 KB
Body: 
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Secret Intelligence 25X1 How China Makes Foreign Policy F I Secret EA 85-10010 January 1985 Copy 2 4 4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 nirpetnrntp of Q.-f 111lCllIgunCC How China Makes Foreign Policy F I Division, OEA, on This paper was prepared by Office of East Asian Analysis. Comments and queries are welcome and may be directed to the Chief, China Secret EA 85-10010 January 1985 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Secret Summary Information available as of 20 December 1984 was used in this report. How China Makes Foreign Policyn 25X1 Decisionmaking in China is-and always has been-highly centralized. Since his return to power, Deng Xiaoping has called most of the shots, es- pecially in foreign policy. Over the past few years, however, Deng has begun delegating more power and responsibility to his handpicked succes- sors, party General Secretary Hu Yaobang and Premier Zhao Ziyang. Of the two, Hu is the real heir to Deng, with Zhao apparently destined to play the role of chief administrator, much like the late Zhou Enlai under Mao. Together Hu and Zhao are making the foreign policy apparatus more responsive to their wills and are attempting to coordinate and rationalize the process. They have a long way to go, however, in remaking what remains a complex, overlapping, and fragile decisionmaking structure. Key institutions to emerge from their efforts are the new Foreign Affairs Small Group administered by Zhao and the reestablished party Secretariat under Hu. They are now responsible for formulating policy and making most of the important day-to-day decisions, helping Hu and Zhao place their stamp on policy and bolstering their image as leaders. Other institutions that play a major role include: ? The Politburo Standing Committee, the party's top decisionmaking body. ? The International Liaison Department. Under Hu Yaobang's activist leadership, this once moribund party agency plays a major role in areas such as relations with North Korea. ? The Foreign Affairs Coordination Point. Under the state apparatus, this informal group hashes out the details of daily diplomacy and economic relations. ? Think tanks, especially those led by officials personally close to Deng, Hu, and Zhao. They often have direct and substantial influence. foreign policy making, The military-long cast by some observers as resisting Deng's foreign policies-does not appear to wield much influence in this area. Historical- ly, some soldier-politicians have been influential, but the military as an institution does not-and apparently never has-played a key role in Personal relationships still count for as much, if not more, than institutions in policymaking. China's tradition of rule by a strongman continues to apply, making even major changes in the direction of foreign policy relatively easy to initiate and rendering the policy process unpredictable. Secret EA 85-10010 January 1985 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Indeed, persons with close ties to individual leaders at the top often go out of channels and submit uncoordinated proposals that can become policy. Similarly, the leadership uses trusted representatives-especially their offspring-to perform particularly sensitive missions rather than rely on officeholders in the formal chain of command. Foreign policy professionals with few exceptions have not entered the narrow circle of the leadership's trusted advisers. The conservatives in China's leadership who have resisted some of the reformist initiatives appear to us more concerned with the domestic social effects of foreign policy than with the policy itself. These leaders also have a jealous regard for China's sovereignty and are quick to react when they believe it is slighted. Politburo Standing Committee members Chen Yun, 79, and Li Xiannian, 75, stand out in this regard, although their influence on foreign policy appears to have declined recently. Another senior leader who could prove increasingly troublesome, is the independent-minded Peng Zhen, 82, rumored to be responsible for intelli- gence and a candidate for membership in the party's Politburo Standing Committee. Peng has a record of emotionally tinged anti-US remarks. Chinese leaders take their own counsel and rely on a handful of close advisers who share their strategic outlook and for the most part do not rep- resent institutional interests. Foreign policy professionals, with few excep- tions, have not entered the narrow circles of the leadership's trusted advisers. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Summary iii Introduction 1 The Foreign Policy Hierarchy 1 The Party ... 1 The Politburo Standing Committee 1 The Politburo The Secretariat 3 The Foreign Affairs Small Group The Foreign Policy Research Group The International Liaison Department 4 The Ministry of Foreign Affairs The Ministry of Foreign Economic Relations and 6 Trade Conclusions and Implications for the United States 7 8 10 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Secret How China Makes Foreign Policy F Since the founding of the People's Republic, China's leaders have had enormous personal scope in shaping foreign policy. In the early years, this reliance on the judgment of one or a few individuals was not a great handicap because of China's limited international role and its acceptance of the Soviet lead in many areas. The opening of China to the West since the end of the Cultural Revolution, however, has greatly increased the importance of the decisions of Beijing's leaders and its foreign policy apparatus. Deng's twin objectives-economic modernization and a smooth succession to party General Secretary Hu Yaobang and Premier Zhao Ziyang-have, however, prompted him to delegate some of his authority to these two men and the bureaucracies they head. But the process of creating a foreign policy establishment responsive to Hu and Zhao is far from complete. This paper looks closely at China's foreign policy institu- tions as they are evolving and then discusses the roles of the major players The Party ... The Politburo Standing Committee. This is the apex of decisionmaking in China. Three of its six mem- bers-Deng, Hu, and Zhao-together make the ma- jor decisions in foreign policy, with Deng the domi- Deng has gradually shifted responsibility for foreign affairs onto the shoulders of Hu and Zhao. Zhao told a US scholar last July that he and Hu are on the "first line" of decisionmaking. The other four, older Stand- ing Committee members, on the "second line," now decide "only a few" issues. The Politburo. Since the reestablishment of the party Secretariat in early 1980, the once-strong role of the Politburo has steadily diminished, its functions limit- ed largely to approving what the Secretariat submits to it. Its 24 full members and three alternate mem- bers, often powerful individuals in their own right, are 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Figure 1 China's Foreign Policy Decision Making Hierarchy Legend - Formal bureaucratic line of command -- Intermittent participant Informal channels of real influence State Council [(Zhao Ziyang) Inner Cabinet Foreign Affairs Small (Zhao Ziyang) Group Foreign Affairs Policy Research Coordination Point Office (Ji Pengfei ) (Deng Liqun) Politburo Standing Committee (Deng Xiaoping) Secretariat (Hu Yaobang) Ministry of State Security (Ling Yon) Foreign Policy International Liaison Research Group Department (Huan Xiang) (Qian Liren) Ministry of Foreign Ministry of Foreign Ministry of National Economic Relations Affairs Defense and Trade (Wu Xueqian) (Zhang Aiping) When Muhua) Institute of Contem- International Studies Beijing Institute of porary International Research Center International and Relations (Huan Xiang) Strategic Studies (Chen Zhongjing) (Wu Xiuquan) Think Tanks- Can send papers to any level of party or state and prompt policy changes. Party/State Military Commissions (Yang Shangkun) Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Secret collectively quite elderly (average age 75), and no effort is under way to make the membership younger. Although troublesome Politburo members are treated gingerly, the reformist-dominated Secretariat has fairly successfully circumvented the group as a whole. In recent years, the Politburo has met infrequently and usually only in connection with larger gather- ings-so-called expanded Politburo meetings-that include Secretariat members and a variety of other party, state, and Army figures. These large meetings appear to dilute the impact of the Politburo delibera- tions, effectively packing the meeting in Deng's favor The Secretariat. On all issues, this is now the key policy formulation body in the Chinese party. We believe that the Secretariat shapes and oversees the implementation of nearly all major departures in foreign policy-such as opening China's cities to foreign investment. Its governmental counterpart is the State Council. The membership and staff of the who are not closely identified with Deng and Hu. For example, General Political Department head Yu Qiuli is often associated with President Li Xiannian, and Vice Premier Yao Yilin seems to be close to Chen Yuri. 25X1 25X1 two organizations overlap, 25X1 The Foreign Affairs Small Group. Li Xiannian pre- sides over this group, but in fact it is headed by Premier Zhao and is the most important body review- ing day-to-day issues. Its members include the leaders of all organizations dealing with foreign affairs: The Secretariat is the central coordination mecha- nism for all party activities and is the bureaucratic power base for General Secretary Hu. Its 11 members and alternates include some senior figures, however, Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Standing midway between the party and state, it coordinates the activities of all organizations con- cerned with foreign policy matters. Zhao identified this group as a party organization and outlined its role as exchanging views, studying problems, and commu- nicating with one another. According to Zhao, "It 25X1 does not decide what concrete measures are to be taken." Despite the establishment of the small group, many Chinese in the ministries still complain to scholars and US Embassy officials about the lack of coordina- tion in the Chinese foreign policy establishment. Reports and studies on virtually any topic from any organization continue to be channeled directly to the top leadership through networks of personal relations without notification to other elements of the bureau- cracies or peer review. As a result, Deng and other leaders sometimes issue policy statements that come as a surprise to China's diplomats.n The Foreign Policy Research Group. This group provides staff support primarily for Hu and the party 25X1 Secretariat. The International Liaison Department. The ILD has a unique role in the policy apparatus: supervising China's dealings with foreign Communist parties and some Communist-ruled countries. With the decline in the international Communist movement and the breakup of the Sino-Soviet Bloc in the 1960s, the ILD lost its main role and much of its policy influence, confining its activities to party intelligence work and contacts abroad with less significant parties. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Secret 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Under Hu Yaobang's activist leadership and the daily oversight of Hu Qili, however, the ILD is making a comeback. It is in charge of Beijing's more ecumeni- cal approach to foreign parties and now deals not only with pro-Soviet parties in Europe but with any party China hopes to influence. Hu's personal involvement in relations with North Korea also has increased the prominence of the ILD. According to a US Embassy source, the ILD drafted all of the papers prepared for Hu's trip to North Korea last May. In November 1984, moreover, an "unofficial" visit to China by Kim II-song, the Korean party leader, took place under the ILD's aegis. F-1 Qian Liren, a follower of Hu Yaobang since their time together in the Communist Youth League in the 1950s, heads the ILD. =Qian's youth activities abroad and previous experience in the ILD make him one of the better informed officials in Hu's circle of trusted associates. ...and State The State Council. The Council is an unwieldy body comprising more than 50 members. It is sometimes called upon to place a stamp of bureaucratic approval on broad policy measures, such as supporting Deng's opening to the outside or Zhao's economic reforms. A less cumbersome "inner cabinet" of about 15 State Council members meets twice a week. This largely technocratic group reportedly works to solve nuts- and-bolts questions that need attention by relatively senior officials. The Premier takes a strong hand in supervising this body The Premier's principal foreign affairs aide in State Council work is Deputy Secretary General Chen Chu, a veteran diplomat. Despite his position, Chen appears to exercise little influence. According to Premier Zhao, the Minister of Foreign Affairs and the Minister of Foreign Economic Rela- tions and Trade meet with Ji frequently to discuss foreign affairs. Their positions make them among the best informed and potentially most influential govern- ment officials in the foreign affairs arena. Zhao said, "When there are problems they cannot solve, they raise them with the State Council." We suspect, however, that their concurrent positions in the Small Group permit issues to go directly there, short- circuiting the State Council. The MFA's lack of political clout, moreover, makes it just one of a number of bureaucracies clamoring to bring their interests to the attention of the leadership. Officials have complained to US Embassy officers 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 that they are unable to control even the publication of The Ministry also prepares a portion of the policy and 25X1 articles on foreign policy in China's authoritative briefing papers on regional issues for leadership meet- media to ensure a unified line.F____1 ings. Some of the products of the American and Oceanian Affairs Department, and possibly the Soviet and East European Affairs Department, receive limit- ed, high-level distribution and are considered impor- tant in the foreign policy community. Observers agree, however, that there are no effective functional bureaus in the Ministry.F-I We believe the influence of the MFA should not be discounted too much. As the chief representative of the Chinese Government in dealings with the outside world, it is a source of ideas and reporting that help form the leadership's agenda. Conferences of senior MFA officials, including am- bassadors assigned abroad, are held periodically in China, usually to receive instructions but sometimes to put forth views on policy. We believe that over time these are influential. The Ministry of Foreign Economic Relations and Trade (MFERT). Given the regime's preoccupation Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Secret with modernization of the Chinese economy and its constantly reiterated policy of opening to the outside, the recently created (1982) and bureaucratically enor- mous MFERT has the potential to become very powerful. It has line responsibility for China's bur- geoning foreign trade and modest foreign aid pro- The Military. How the People's Liberation Army (PLA) formally interacts with the foreign affairs community is unclear, apparently by design. Among foreign observers and even Chinese officials, there is considerable uncertainty about the military's influ- ence on foreign policy. Although many have imputed to the PLA a variety of views on the basis of very thin evidence, we have no hard evidence that the PLA as an institution has historically promoted or obstructed a particular foreign policy line, even during the era when Lin Biao led the military. Other individuals within the military are increasingly performing sensitive foreign affairs tasks at the behest of the leadership. Middle-level officers involved in the developing Sino-US military relationship, for exam- ple, include a striking number of the offspring of senior leaders. In our view, this channel does not represent an expression of PLA institutional interest in expanding the relationship with the United States as much as it does a traditional Chinese inclination to use trustworthy officials to oversee sensitive policy matters. F-1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Individual soldier-politicians may take positions on military-related foreign issues, often representing spe- cial interest groups within the armed forces. In order to obtain needed equipment quickly, some line officers appear willing, for example, to become increasingly dependent on arms and technology from abroad, while military-related production ministries have vested in- terests at home to protect against foreign competition. Their respective influence depends, however, on their personal prestige and connections at least as much as on their institutional affiliation. On balance, we be- lieve the PLA as a whole focuses its energies on domestic issues of more pressing importance to it, 25X1 such as the budget and military modernization. F-1 The Ministry of State Security is headed by a career public security official, Ling Yuri. Ling was Deng's special assistant for security during his visit to the United States in 1979 and presumably is still trusted to look after Deng's interests in the Ministry.n Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 The security apparatus, in turn, is the political respon- sibility of National People's Congress Standing Com- mittee Chairman and Politburo member Peng Zhen and Secretariat member Chen Pixian. The Chinese media routinely identify these men as presiding over the public activities of the security ministries. The Institute of Contemporary International Rela- tions has functioned since the late 1940s as a center for producing all-source finished intelligence.0 it falls bureaucratically under the insti- tute produces current intelligence and long-term stud- ies based on classified reporting presumably obtained through an arrangement with the security apparatus and Foreign Ministry. It is said to be the largest foreign affairs institute in Beijing, with 300 analysts and support staff who tend to be young and well regarded for their expertise. the institute has 400 employees overseas as well, in some cases, we believe, holding full-time MFA assignments, but also in most in- stances presumably collecting intelligence under Min- istry of State Security auspices. 71 Research Institutes. Since the end of the Cultural Revolution, institutes for foreign affairs research have proliferated (see figure 2). Most do not participate actively in policymaking. As a group, however, they are able to send materials directly to the leadership- depending on personal relationships. If a leader like Deng or Chen Yun endorses a particular point in a paper, according to US Embassy reporting, his in- scription will receive wider dissemination and become a factor that must be addressed in policy.= In I I effort to coordinate the increasing flow of these products, Beijing established the International Studies Research Center. Huan Xiang directs this organization, as well as the Secre- tariat's Foreign Policy Research Group.' Huan's bureaucratic breadth as a foreign policy spe- cialist is unmatched in China. however, he has been frustrated to a of information and papers more effectively. degree by various organizations that continue to bypass his Research Center. Given the determination of Hu and Zhao to impose increasing coordination on the bureaucracies, Huan may come to control the flow The Defense Ministry has an institute of its own, the Beijing Institute of International and Strategic Stud- ies (BLISS), headed by veteran soldier and diplomat, Wu long headed military intelligence and still appears to oversee it through Deputy Chief of the General Staff Xu Xin. BIISS has only a small staff of about 20 and no quarters of its own thus far. Its 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Secret Figure 2 China: Foreign Policy Research Institutes Under the State Council Ministry of Foreign Ministry of National Ministry of State International Affairs Ministry of Foreign Chinese Academy of Affairs Defense Security Research Center Trade Social Sciences Institute of Beijing Institute of International Studies Strategic Studies Shanghai Institute of International Studies Chinese People's Institute of Foreign Affairs Institute of Contemporary Inter- national Relations Institute of Interna- Institute of World tional Trade Research Economy and Politics Institute of World History Institute of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe Institute of West Asia and Africa Institute of South Asia Institute of the USA and Canada Institute (if Latin America Institute of Western Europe Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Bence, with very limited analytical capability. Finally, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), established in 1977 as the font of many of the reform camp's most important ideas, houses some specialized foreign affairs institutes. The head of CASS, Ma Hong, is an economist who is not regarded as a foreign policy actor.n One of the institutes under CASS is the Institute of American Studies, a small and ill-funded organization according to its director, Li Shenzhi. Li is well regarded within top foreign policy circles, according to many reports. He was close to Zhou Enlai in the 1950s and 1960s and traveled to the United States with Deng in 1979 and with Zhao in 1984. He also helped to author Hu Yaobang's speech to the 12th Party Congress in 1982, setting out China's independ- ent foreign policy line.' Despite the high regard in which he is held, Li has been slow to acquire bureau- cratic authority. One CASS official believes Li may soon rise to a leading position in the Academy. Li seems to be a protege of Huan Xiang.0 Ad Hoc Groups. The leadership frequently forms special study or policy groups to wrestle with issues of broad scope or particular sensitivity. These fall into two general categories: departmental and ministerial representative meetings and senior leadership teams. Broadly based representative meetings appear intend- ed primarily to build a consensus and overcome bureaucratic cleavages on issues. According to the US Embassy, for example, a visiting US scholar was told that the State Council organized a task force before announcing Premier Zhao's agreement to visit the United States.n In another case, representatives of the Foreign Minis- try's desk, the Institutes of International Studies, of International Relations, and for Contemporary Inter- national Relations prepared an assessment, under the direction of Huan Xiang, on the prospects for the reelection of President Reagan. The task force con- cluded that the President would be reelected and that China should prepare to deal with him for another five years. Similar ad hoc groups are formed to coodinate papers in advance of visits by important figures, such as Vice President Bush and Prime Minister Thatcher.) Ad hoc groups composed of top leaders are not a new phenomenon and seem to reflect China's traditional reliance on a few powerful individuals. Dissent Mechanisms. China's political culture stress- es conformity, despite the efforts of the leadership occasionally to encourage initiative. When a single leader is dominant, as Deng is now, the tendency is to avoid challenging his line on issues such as foreign policy. When the leader is weak, however, political opponents look for issues to exploit as cudgels in their battles. Debates can occur completely out of our view, but some differences emerge when senior leaders Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Secret make public remarks that are out of step with the prevailing line.4 n The conditions of comparative stability in China today have reduced visible dissent to a minimum. Under these conditions, perhaps the safest and most commonly used means of publicly debating an issue, especially one that has not been finally decided upon by the leadership, is the use of allegorical articles in China's media. In August 1984, for example, an article appeared in Red Flag ostensibly to commemo- rate China's National Day, but it went on to dredge up unpleasant memories about the stationing of US forces in China before 1949. Although the intent of such pieces is usually masked, this article seemed written to warn the leadership about the potential adverse consequences of a military relationship with the United States.n approval by someone in authority. We know very little about the interplay between senior leaders and those who express dissent from below. Long after specific policy or factional battles have been fought, however, information has often emerged linking the authors of allegorical articles, for example, with top leaders who are struggling with their colleagues. Gaining access to the official media to publish allegories appears to require at least tacit Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Secret Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Secret Conclusions and Implications for the United States The creation of new coordinating mechanisms has strengthened the role of the reform group under Deng in the foreign policy making process. It has not, however, fundamentally altered the system's tendency to rely, in an almost chaotic fashion, on individuals rather than institutions. By regularizing much of the flow of information and policy papers, the Deng group has reduced, to a degree, the potential for confusion, error, and opposition mischief. It also has helped Hu and Zhao to place their stamp on policy, bolstering their image as national leaders.n Tighter management of the process, we believe, has also made implementation of policy toward the Unit- ed States more effecti,,--. By including suspected skeptics of the relationship in the policy generation process and by appointing study groups across bu- reaucratic lines, the regime is able to channel and control dissenting views within the system.n with Taiwan. At the same time, the concentration of authority in the hands of Deng, Hu, and Zhao gives these lead- ers-especially Deng-the authority to stare down domestic critics, for example, on the decision to play down China's reaction to quiet, unofficial US dealings It is too early to tell whether the new institutions created by the reformers will last. China's tradition of rule by a strongman, combined with a tendency to treat foreign policy as his special preserve, still makes even major changes in the direction of foreign policy relatively easy to initiate. The complex pattern of personal relationships that exist throughout the sys- tem remains, in our view, more durable and influen- tial than the institutions themselves.n Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Secret Appendix An Illustration of the Decisionmaking Process In June 1984, Outlook magazine published a highly May 1980 unusual article chronicling China's decision "to fur- ther open to the world" 14 coastal cities. We believe this decision provoked particularly intense behind-the- scenes arguments, because of the major domestic implications of the competition and opportunities brought by increased contact with the world. Some August 1980 officials evidently also believed that special economic zones would become "special political zones" for foreigners. By detailing the stages of decisionmaking and consensus building, the reform leadership appar- ently wanted to demonstrate to skeptics that the 1981-82 policy was firm, broadly based, and no longer to be questioned. At the same time, Hu and Zhao presum- ably sought to portray themselves as presiding over a smooth governmental process with the blessing of all the top leaders. The article documented the emergence of the Secre- tariat as the central party body to shape the initiatives of the leadership. It also demonstrated how inscrip- tions on policy documents by top leaders influence policy debates. Finally, it showed how the Politburo was circumvented and maneuvered into functioning as 1982 a rubberstamp. December 1978 The watershed Third Ple- num of the 11th Central Committee approved the notion of opening to the outside world. Deng Xiaoping proposed February 1983 creating special zones to entice foreign capital and technology to China. "Soon afterwards" Central Committee and State Council sent work teams to investigate es- tablishing "special zones for exports." The Central Committee and State Council issued document establishing "special economic zones." The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress gave pro forma approval of zones. Central Committee and State Council issued fur- ther stipulations and regulations. Hu Yaobang told the Secretariat, "On the ba- sis of self-reliance, we must widen our field of vision from China to the world." Chen Yun inscribed in- structions on a document urging the zones be run "more successfully." Top leaders Hu Yao- bang, Ye Jianying, Deng Xiaoping, Zhao Ziyang, Li Xiannian, and others conducted personal inves- tigations of the zones. Hu Yaobang said, while touring the Shenzhen zone, "Be bold in explor- ing and blazing new trails." Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 January-February 1984 Deng Xiaoping, Wang Zhen, and Yang Shang- kun inspected the zones. Deng wrote an inscrip- tion saying, "Our policy in establishing special economic zones is correct." 24 February 1984 "Leading comrades of the central authorities" attended a "forum" where Deng instructed, "We must make clear that our guiding ideology is to open wide and not to restrict." "Not long afterwards" The Secretariat and State Council began con- crete preparations for a forum of coastal city leaders. 26 March-6 April 1984 The Secretariat and State Council held a fo- rum of coastal city and provincial officials to- gether with responsible and leading officials from the special economic zones and central organs. Deng Xiaoping and Li Xiannian attended the closing. Zhao Ziyang called Deng's proposal to open additional cities a "major policy." 30 April 1984 Finally, Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang presided over a Politburo meeting, also attended by "leading comrades" of the Secre- tariat, the State Council, the Central Advisory Commission, and "other organs" to endorse Deng's proposal. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5 Secret Secret Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP04T00447R000100530001-5