PANAMA: ASSESSING INDICATORS OF NORIEGA'S SUPPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP04T00990R000100430001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 23, 2013
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 2, 1987
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/06: CIA-RDP04T00990R000100430001-3 25X1
Central Intdligence Agency
Nfashingon.11C 20505
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
2 March 1987
PANAMA: ASSESSING INDICATORS OF NORIEGA'S SUPPORT
Summary
Defense Forces Commander Noriega, the defacto
ruler of Panama, has strong bases of support in the
military, the ruling coalition, labor, and the lower
classes which have enabled him to withstand pressure
for his ouster. Displays of support by these groups
will bolster Noriega's confidence that he can stay in
power. Most importantly, we believe the continued
staunch backing of the officer corps--which has
portrayed charges against Noriega as a US ploy to
discredit the military--will be the most important
indicator that Noriega's position remains firm. The
opposition's continued failure to orchestrate large
protests would also indicate Noriega's hold on power
remains strong.
Noriega's position could erode quickly, however,
if the military began to view their Defense Chief as a
liability to rather than a defender of ,the military
institution. The officer corps would be especially
alarmed if Noriega's traditional political supporters--
This typescript was prepared by Middle America-
Caribbean Division, Office of African and Latin American
Analysis. Comments and queries are welcome and may by directed
to the Chief, Middle America-Caribbean Division, ALA,
ALA M 88720016
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/06: CIA-RDP04T00990R000100430001-3 25X1
particularly the dominant ruling Democratic
Revolutionary Party or the lower classes--began to
express concerns about Noriega. Such erosion in
Noriega's traditional bases of support probably would
occur in the event of significant economic
deterioration and would make the military more
reluctant to use lethal force to control violent
protests. It also could foster splits within the
officer corps and spur key factions to press for
Noriega's resignation or, alternatively, to seek the
support of the United States or the opposition in an
effort to oust the Defense Chief.
The US indictment of Panamanian Defense Chief Noriega and
President Delvalle's attempt to dismiss him have substantially
increased the pressure on Noriega to step down. The Defense
Chief remains confident, however, that the military supports him.
His fear of extradition, and desire not to be seen as succumbing
to US pressure probably have stiffened his resolve to stay in
office. This paper assesses the bases of Noriega's support and
lists developments that would indicate whether his position is
likely to remain strong or is weakening.
Bases of Noriega's Support
Noriega is unlikely to consider stepping down as long as he
believes he has the solid support of the Panamanian military--the
only group that could force him from power. Moreover, Noriega
probably remains confident that other sources of support such as
civilian politicians in Panama's dominant the Democratic
Revolutionary Party, organized labor, and the lower classes are
unlikely to oppose him because they benefit from the military's
dominant role in Panama. He also probably calculates that the
opposition movement led by the business-oriented Civil Crusade
would need to attract more support from other groups--and from
within the military--to effectively challenge him.
The Military
Noriega continues to retain the support of the General Staff
and influential majors--who equate attacks on the Defense Chief
as attacks on the military institution. Charges made by former
regime adviser Jose Blandon that Noriega and several senior
officers were involved in drug trafficking have reinforced
Noriega's portrayal of Blandon as a traitor and underscored the
vulnerability of other officers to opposition attacks. In an
effort to show support for their embattled commander, several
majors, petitioned the Defense Chief in early February to remove
the US Southern Command from Panama.
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/06: CIA-RDP04T00990R000100430001-3
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