EVALUATION OF SOVIET S&T PROPOSALS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP05C01629R000701490008-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 18, 2011
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: January 13, 1988
• Content Type: MEMO

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~SIEEG~RET
DIRECTOR OF CEN ENCE
Technology Transfer Intelligence Committee
(TTIC)
Subcommittee on Export Control Subcommittee on Exchanges
(EXCON) (COMEX)
TTIC-C-011-88
13 January 1988
MEMORANDUM FOR: TTIC Members
FROM: Executive Secretary
SUBJECT: Evaluation of Soviet S&T Proposals
As you requested at the TTIC meeting which was held on 12 January, I am
forwarding a copy of the COMEX evaluation of 112 Soviet S&T proposals under
the US-USSR Basic Sciences Agreement. The high quality of this report is
dependent largely on solid inputs provided by the members - in this case,
primarily from COMEX members.
Upon Removal of Attachment
Downgrade to CONFIDENTIAL
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,sECkET
DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
Technology Transfer Intelligence Committee
(TTIC)
Subcommittee on Export Control Subcommittee on Exchanges
(EXCON) (COMEX)
EC-562-87
15 December 1987
MEMORANDUM FOR: Thomas B. Robertson
Office of Soviet Union Affairs
Department of State
FROM: Executive Secretary, COMEX
SUBJECT: Soviet Proposals for General Scientific Cooperation
OR 169-87
REFERENCE: EC-250-87
1. Proposed Cooperation. During discussions in Moscow early in
October, the Soviets provided a list of 95 topics for cooperation (including
22 sub-topics under five of those, for a total of 112 separate proposals) in
16 scientific or technological categories. They run the gamut from purely
theoretical investigations in physics and mathematics to the development of
specific techniques and applications in welding and corrosion inhibition.
The Soviets have put forward these suggestions for possible inclusion in a
prospective US-Soviet agreement on basic science.
2. Recommended Action. TTIC's Subcommittee on Exchanges (COMEX)
recommends no further consideration of 21 of the proposed topics, approval
of 32 for immediate further discussion, and restrictions on consideration of
the remaining 42. The topics are listed according to this classification in
paragraph 4 below; COMEX's detailed reactions are laid out, topic by topic,
in the Appendix.
a. COMEX had earlier (see reference) recommended wholesale
disapproval of the Soviets' originally proposed categories dealing with
advanced materials, technologies based on new physical principles,
corrosion, membranes, artificial intelligence, and automation. The Soviets,
nevertheless, have again proposed the first four categories as major areas
of cooperation, with the last two resurfacing as topics under one or more
other categories--and it appears that the US has at least implicitly agreed
to consider them. Accordingly, and despite its persisting doubts about the
advisability of conceding these categories to the Soviets as fit subjects
for major cooperative programs, COMEX has conducted a "zero-based" review of
all the categories and subordinate topics from the perspective of potential
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SEC
US technological loss. Throughout, no effort is made to use the difference
between basic and applied science as a general criterion for judgment, as
the distinction does not seem to be operative in an definable way in
discussions already begun with the Soviets
b. In planning the next stage of exchanges with the Soviets on
possible scientific cooperation, it now appears critical to define
attainable objectives and to focus upon practicable ways of achieving them.
The administration, as such, of scientific and technical cooperation is
outside COMEX's purview, strictly speaking. However, the conclusion appears
inescapable, for example, that continued expansion of the number and scope
of proposals under consideration can only bode ill for the prospects of
effective implementation of any agreement. The groundwork should be laid
now for administrative structures and coordinating procedures that will
ensure the reliability of controls to prevent the inadvertent loss of
technology to a potential adversary.
c. One possibility that may deserve attention as a way to enhance
the coherence of plans for cooperation would involve some shifting of
topics. Proposals that appear usable or acceptable from the US viewpoint
might be moved from the more heavily technological Soviet categories and
placed under the US's scientific headings--or under the more clearly
scientific Soviet categories. Some specific suggestions along these lines
are incorporated at appropriate places in the Appendix.
3. General Assessment. The general motivation underlying the Soviet
proposals seems fairly clear.
a. As a recent CIA analysis noted, Soviet priorities as reflected
in their suggestions can be listed in the following order:
--To obtain technological support for economic modernization;
--To gain the means of enhancing Soviet military capabilities;
--To contribute to the advancement of science.
This hierarchy of interests, from greatest to least, is consistent with the
comments contributed by analysts who participated in the COMEX review,
though those comments seemed to imply that defense industrial interests are
probably paramount in the drive for economic modernization.
b. The explicit or implicit role of MNTKS (interbranch scientific
and technical complexes) in the Soviet proposals further confirms Soviet
intentions. These new, nation-wide organizations are dedicated to the
development of technology in all its phases, from conception through
research and engineering to full-scale industrial implementation.
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SECRET
Fundamental scientific research is of interest to these entities only as a
necessary precursor to the development of practical technology. Certain of
the MNTKs that would play a dominant role if the Soviet suggestions were
implemented as proposed also have well-established ties to military research
F- I
and defense production activities.
4. Classification of Assessed Proposals. The Soviet proposals are
summarized below in three separate lists according to the COMEX
recommendations for denial, approval, or approval with restrictions. The
Appendix contains a full presentation of COMEX's reactions.
a. Unacceptable risks of technological loss are associated with
the following areas and projects, which should be denied any further
consideration for discussion with the Soviets:
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