VIEWS ON EMERGING AREAS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POTENTIALLY IMPORTANT TO NATIONAL SECURITY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP05T00280R000100060001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 30, 2009
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 1, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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Scientific and Technical,
Intelligence Committee
Views on Emerging Areas of Science and Technology
Potentially Important to National Security
Confidential
STIC 75-4
December 1975
Copy
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THE SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE IS
COMPRISED OF REPRESENTATIVES OF:
The Central Intelligence Agency
The Defense Intelligence Agency
The National Security Agency
Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
Energy Research and Development Administration
The Department of
The Treasury Department
The Department of State
The Department of the Army
The Department of the Navy
The Department of the Air Force
Commerce
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
Microfiche (NMA) copies are available upon request.
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VIEWS ON EMERGING AREAS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
POTENTIALLY IMPORTANT TO NATIONAL SECURITY
STIC 75-4
December 1975
SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE
-CONFIDENTIAL
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PREFACE
The prime responsibility of the Scientific and Technical Intelli-
gence Committee (STIC) * is the coordination of Intelligence Com-
munity activity in a wide range of sciences and technologies which
could affect significantly the military or economic security of the United
States.** A recent publication entitled "Intelligence Priorities for the
Sciences and Technologies" is a step by the STIC in identifying those
sciences and technologies of significance for national intelligence today.
Of equal or even greater potential importance is the early recognition of
advances in those sciences and technologies which now are emerging
but whose full impact on military or economic security may not be
felt for some years.
Their recognition early enough would provide ample time to collect
and analyze data on foreign activities in those areas while they are
still relatively .easy to obtain. Accurate specification of these areas will
enable the Intelligence Community to concentrate its efforts better and
possibly avoid a foreign S&T surprise in the future.
An essential first step to narrow the possibilities is to obtain
the views of a number of qualified individuals. This first step has
been undertaken as an ongoing STIC project and this report is the
product of Phase I. It is not an intelligence assessment but is a selection
of some of the viewpoints expressed by a number of such persons
as of a particular time-early and mid-1975. Its purpose is to stimulate
the Intelligence Community into early planning for future collection and
analysis of new and unusual intelligence targets.
The material presented in this report is based on information re-
ceived from individual interviews with some 17 persons. All have
recognized achievements in science or engineering; most have had ex-
tensive associations with military technology problems. They included
two Nobel prizewinners, several laboratory directors, former high-level
government technical personnel, and Department of Defense and Intelli-
gence Community contractors. The group was roughly balanced be-
tween scientists and engineers. The results are presented as identified
areas of science and technology as well as emerging problem areas
expected to be of importance in the future. `
Although the number of individuals interviewed is not large, the
sampling is considered to be gocd in the areas of science ; and military
'Formerly the Scientific Intelligence Committee (SIC).
"Nuclear matters are the concern of the joint Atomic Energy Intelligence
Committee.
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security. Respondents representing areas of science and technology re-
lated to the future economic welfare and energy developments were
not significantly represented. Phase II of this project, by increasing
the sample size and by broadening the spectrum of respondents, skills,
and expertise, will minimize any biases. At the end of the project, a
final definitive report will be prepared with specific recommendations.
This project has been sponsored by the STIC and any 'comments re-
garding it would be welcomed. Please call the STIC Secretariat, 6F35,
CIA Headquarters
Chairman i
Scientific and Technical Intelligence Committee
IV
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CONTENTS
Page
PREFACE ............................................ ........ iii
INTRODUCTION .................................... ! ...... 1
SUMMARY ................................................ 3
DISCUSSION .............................................. 5
Expectations in the Life Sciences ...................... ...... 5
Expectations in the Physical Sciences ........................ 5
Expectations in Technology .................................. 7
Topics Receiving Single Mentions ..................... ...... 7
Soviet-Specific Threats ..................................... 8
Nonspecific Threats ......................................... 8
CHARTS
Page
Methodology and Results ...................................... 3
What Stands Out in Science and Technology? ...................... 4
What Problems/ Threats Are Foreseen? ......................... 4
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VIEWS ON EMERGING AREAS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY.
POTENTIALLY IMPORTANT TO NATIONAL SECURITY -
INTRODUCTION
Following the surge of science and technology in World War II
and about every 10 years since, concerted attempts have been made
to divine what S&T areas had reached or were about to reach the
"take-off point" for future development or exploitation in, military
technology.* Each of these efforts involved input from a large, number
of. persons who were knowledgeable in a broad spectrum of sciences
and technologies. Our effort , has been much more modest and, even
including succeeding phases, will involve a much smaller group, perhaps
30-40 persons. We believe that useful forecasts can be made by a smaller
group if the participants are carefully selected and properly approached.
We selected recognized authorities who are in touch with more.
than a single specialized field and who know where the "ferment"
is in a number of disciplines. At the same time, we chose individuals
who are in contact with the talented bench-level scientist and thus
can argue for exotic ideas which may not yet be technically or or-
ganizationally acceptable. Our interview approach was interpersonal.
We felt that simply asking a scientist or engineer to answer a written
question would not give us the' kind of response desired., Instead
we met with them on essentially a one-to-one basis, although each
may have had different areas of interest. We felt that an immediate
conversational feedback would produce a more significant interchange
and stimulate a wider spectrum of ideas. The STIC asked Dr. Stephen
J. Lukasik, former Director of the Defense Advanced Research Projects
Agency, to ,take part in this project. He in fact conducted many of the
interviews, accompanied by a representative of the STIC, and per-
formed the basic analysis of the interview data.
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In planning and carrying out this project, we recognized sources of
bias in our methodology that could distort the results and made con-
scious efforts to minimize them, recognizing that they were not entirely
avoidable. First, was that the persons selected for interviews would
in essence determine the answers to our question. Thus, particular care
was exercised in selecting a knowledgeable sample representing as wide
a spectrum as possible within the constraint of the small sample size.
Second, in the initial portion of each interview, we encouraged ex-
tensive free exposition on the part of our respondents before inter-
acting with them in order to avoid leading them. Third, among the
sometimes numerous topics brought up in each interview, it became
a subjective decision as to what to note, whether a main point or a
digression, which in itself could be significant.
Those interviewed had wide backgrounds and they were encouraged
to range broadly. Thus they were not confined to specific fields of
expertise. Further it should be noted that there are varying degrees
of probability to be attached to their views and also, that the time
frame in which these expectations might be realized is highly uncertain,
variable, and clearly extends beyond the period of the 80's in some cases.
In the analysis of the interview data, what to consider most or
least important again involved a subjective judgment. While this judg-
ment may be questioned, we feel that the results reported here express
the main thrusts of the responses. The interviews were based on one
key question:
"What are the emerging or rapidly moving areas of science or
technology potentially important to national security in the 80's?"
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SUMMARY
The significant topics from the interviews were
found to divide in. a roughly 2:1 ratio into two
classes: those concerning an area of science or
technology and those concerning a problem or threat
area. (See chart below.) Each class was ordered
internally to discern whatever patterns of ? ideas
might be present. In some cases the same idea
was mentioned by more than one person while in
others several ideas clustered in certain areas or
around certain themes. Each of these clusters
could then be weighted in importance according
to both the number of items in it and the number
of individuals contributing to it.
Of the science and technology items, nearly
three fifths fell into four clusters: life sciences,
computer science, chemistry/materials, and physics/
astronomy. The next three clusters, in order of
frequency of mention, covered the technology
areas of high energy lasers, space, and- antisub-
marine warfare and accounted for slightly less than
a fifth of the items. The remainder, slightly more
than a fifth, consisted of a set of ideas mentioned
only once and which ' did not fall into any of the
popular clusters.
The problems or threats divided almost equally
into two classes, those requiring resources of such
a magnitude that only the Soviet Union could
reasonably be considered to pose such threats and
those requiring a lesser level of resources such
that other countries or groups could also credibly
pose such threats. Within each of these, the sig-
nificant clustering was into threats of a military'
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nature and those of an economic character. In the
following discussion section, the ideas in each of
the major clusters are detailed.
The results of the Phase I effort are summarized
in the following two charts. The topics thereon
are particularly noteworthy both because of the
likelihood of their realization and of their poten-
tial significance should scientific expectations be
realized. There are some areas which received
little emphasis although they also might pose threats
over the long range. Among these were conventional
land warfare, electronic warfare, and computer
vulnerability. These as well as others, may emerge
in the next phase , of the study.
WHAT STANDS OUT IN SCIENCE ? TECHNOLOGY?
? Genetic engineering
? Understanding the brain and the nature of thought
? Possibility of interaction with intelligent extraterrestrial life
.*''Logic devices that will be cheap, smart, human-adaptive,. and widely distributed
? The synthesis of complex organic materials tailored-for, specific* biological or
physical properties
? Understanding -subnuclear interactions
radiation sources-
High eneiQY`: aser`in space=
? Construction of large structures in space
? .Maior.,advance in ASW that could seriously impact our undersea deterrent
WHAT PROBLEMS/THREATS ARE FORESEEN?
? Nonspecific general threats are seen to outweigh Soviet-specific high technology
threats
? Nonspecific `general threats are highly economics-related while' Soviet-specific
threats are not seen as primarily economic in nature
? Some unusual threats that stand out are:
? Soviet attacks on or from space
? Economic warfare
?_ Agricultural/chemical warfare
? Weather/climate modification
Laser isotope separation is expected to result in
possibility . o new energy and ~?
increased nuclear proliferation
? Break-up of I S alliances is seen to put a premium on naval superiority but at
'the same time one wants to look for unconventional means of global transport
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!. a..: aka,: 3
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DISCUSSION
EXPECTATIONS IN THE LIFE SCIENCES
The single area of science mentioned most often
was that of the life sciences, accounting for almost
a quarter of the significant items. One respondent
said as his opening remark that "The scientific
surprises will be in biology. It is the terra incog-
nita." Another referred to cellular biochemistry as
a "maximum intellectual opportunity." Several felt
that over the time period in question we will begin
to understand the working of the human brain, both
at the neurophysiological level and at the cognitive
level. The belief was expressed that at the physio-
logical level we will understand cellular receptor
mechanisms and the input/output processes of the
brain. It was felt that such fundamental under-
standing would then translate into a better under-
standing of such cognitive processes as judgment,
intuition, creativity, learning, and problem solving.
There were several references to the effects of
microwave radiation on humans and the possibility
of inducing behavioral changes by the manipulation
of electrical rhythms in the brain. Sleep, alertness,
learning, optimizing task performance, and mood-
altering were mentioned as possible applications.
In a similar vein, the possible use of the Josephson
junction to obtain an electro- or magneto-encephalo-
gram remotely was mentioned as a means of mon-
itoring individual behavior or mood.
Another area mentioned as a likely development
is that of genetic engineering. Recent research on re-,
combinant DNA molecules suggests the threshold of
a new area of scientific and engineering opportunity.
Despite current ethical discussions among the broad
community of scientists involved, the feeling was
expressed by several respondents that we would
be both forced into such a development by the
need to enlarge the world food supply as well as
drawn into it by enormous commercial incentives.
The applications will all be at the bacterial level,
and will occur first in industrial sectors dealing
with antibiotics, fermentation, and allied chemical.
processing. Direct -fixation of nitrogen for fertilizer,
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the production of hydrogen for energy, and the
synthetic production of human protein for thera-
peutic purposes are some of- the possible incentives.
In each of these areas, there are clearly both
benefits as well as risks and these were recognized
and discussed by the interviewees. But the con-
sensus was that a combination of the scientific
imperative, social needs, and economic incentives
would result in the ultimate realization of these po-
tentialities.
Several of the group chose to discuss living
matter from the viewpoint that amino acids are not
unique to the terrestrial environment, that life else-
where is inevitable and widespread, that intelli-
gent life is common, that there is a considerable
similarity between these life forms, and that contact
between them occurs: Some thought that the poten-
tial exists for some form of faster-than-light commu-
nications or travel although no one suggested that
man is likely to achieve it in the near future. Possibly
related to this, a feeling was expressed that there
may be some genuine anomalies in the mass of
UFO experiences.
Another hint of a new direction in science that
was mentioned lies in the area of parapsychology.
Here again, the opinion was expressed that there is
a possibility of such phenomena as precognition
and psychic communication in spite of the mass of
poor science, pseudoscience, and outright fraud
that surrounds the field. The view of some is that
at least some forms of psychic phenomena may be
explained on the basis of an unusual sensitivity of
certain individuals to certain low-level signals whose
origin is actually. explainable by current science.
EXPECTATIONS IN THE PHYSICAL SCIENCES
Cheap computation was taken as a fundamental
determinant of the scientific and technological fu-
ture.. In such a circumstance the efficiency with
which hardware is employed becomes less impor-
tant; also it is reasonable that more special-purpose
computers will be constructed, often on one or a
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few large-scale-integration circuit chips. The cost
and reliability of software then become the driving
forces. In particular it is important to understand
the logic implications of complex software, includ-
ing conditions of hardware failure or malicious
penetration of the hardware-sofeware system.
Although some of the discussions focused on tech-
nological issues such as unusual architectures that
will be enabled with the advent of cheap large-
scale-integration circuit chips (e.g., 104 parallel
processors), the impact of charge coupled devices,
and cheap high-density random access memory (say
1011 bits), the bulk of the comments centered
on the impact of such hardware capability. The
dominant theme was that these advances would
have a major impact on the speed and efficiency
with which people will communicate with each
other and with logic systems. For as more machine
capability per unit cost becomes available, the
systems themselves will be able to respond in more
human-like ways. Adjectives such as "smart" and
"friendly" were used repeatedly to describe future
computer systems. The new methods of response
will greatly broaden their range of applications-
uses for purely numerical computations will lessen,
while more cognitive areas such as problem solving,
hypothesis testing, economic planning and social
systems management will increase.
These logic and computational capabilities will
have a fundamental impact not only on weapon
system performance but also on military security
directly. For computer science will directly trans-
late into command, control, and communication ca-
pability, and this per se can enhance the effective-
ness of a military force.
In chemistry, several fields were identified as
being of particular interest. The borderline area
between inorganic and organic chemistry was iden-
tified for both the richness of possible compounds
with unusual physical and chemical properties (ste-
reospecific, photovoltaic, anisotropic, etc.) as well
as for its relatively unexplored character. The role
of such compounds in catalyzing the fixation of
nitrogen was mentioned for its- application to the
production of critically short fertilizers.
Organic synthesis was mentioned as an area of
potential impact, especially the synthesis of bio-
chemicals such as insect hormones and specific
insecticides. In a rather different aspect of organic
synthesis, work is under way to produce organic
molecules capable of sustaining super-conductivity
at relatively high temperatures-possibly even at
room temperatures. This requires a much deeper
understanding of the relationship between molec-
ular structure and the phenomena responsible for
its bulk electrical properties.
Catalysis and surface chemistry will be areas
of particular activity driven both by the need
for ever more efficent industrial production as well
as our increasing reliance on thin film devices in
electronics. Considerable theoretical discussion has
centered on a possible metallic form of hydrogen
at extremely high pressure. What precisely will
come from the production of metallic hydrogen is
difficult to predict, but it is certain to provide a
substantial degree of scientific stimulation. The
same is the case with a gamma ray laser. It could
provide us with a totally new tool which might
enable us to manipulate matter selectively at the
level of the individual lattice site.
In physics, the projections focus on completing
the solution of one of the major outstanding prob-
lems, that of understanding the nature of the strong
interactions. The current bewildering variety of
hypotheses is expected to be replaced by an orderly
description. Such an understanding is certain to
generate applications as particles become suscep-
tible to prediction and manipulation. Perhaps we
will discover a way to achieve complete mass/
energy conversion (9MT/lb); at least there will
be new ways of economically producing energy,
radiation, and new materials. In the same vein,
the hypothesized tachyon that travels at a speed
greater than light attests to the vigor and even-
tual revolutionary impact of high energy particle
physics.
In a different direction, but possibly just as.
revolutionary, is the, current ferment in astronomy
and astrophysics. Quasars, neutron stars, and black
holes represent totally new systems to be under-
stood. In at least some of these systems, the mass
and energy densities may be so great that funda-
mental revisions of, the laws of physics may be
necessary to describe them, revisions which have
imperceptible consequences ? under the circum-
stances of "ordinary matter" Thus it will be useful
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to follow work in these areas since it may be here
that the fundamentally new thoughts may emerge.
How these will be applied is difficult to say but
one can expect at the least to discover new ways
to exploit energy.
Finally, one can expect some day to achieve the
long-sought unified field theory that will unite
under a common description the diverse physics
of electromagnetism, gravitation, strong interac-
tions, and weak interactions. When one does, one
might expect to understand how to control gravita-
tional forces for propulsion and energy production.
EXPECTATIONS IN TECHNOLOGY
Lasers were the single most-often-mentioned
technology having a potentially revolutionary im-
pact. The high energy laser as a weapon was men-
tioned several times although in one respondent's
.opinion its potential as a weapon is overrated. The
high energy laser in space was felt to be particularly
likely and significant as a threat either to satellites
or to high-altitude aircraft. Other applications men-
tioned included a ground-based laser radar for
ABM discrimination or precise space object iden-
tification. The only device-specific opinion was on
the importance of the chemical laser, not only for
its power-production capability, but also for its
ability to control specific states of chemical excita-
tion in order to optimize production processes.
Space technology was also discussed in the con-
text of new applications made possible by large
structures in space. The high energy laser in space
has already been mentioned as a totally new military
capability, especially for attacks on other space-
craft. A radar in space, either at synchronous or
lower altitude, offers significant opportunities for
tracking aircraft and surface ships. The possibility
of fabricating in situ enormously large antennas in
space, using uniquely zero-g techniques, was noted.
Large solar arrays in space, transmitting their
energy to earth or other orbiting objects via narrow
microwave beams were mentioned as energy
sources. The construction of space stations was con-
sidered a development that would be enabled by
the space shuttle. Finally, the continued develop-
ment of satellites for an increasing range of com-
munication functions was envisaged. Running
through the entire discussion was the projection
that the next step in space technology will be the
construction and use of very large spacecraft where
the size is a necessary feature for achieving- the
desired capability.
An explicit military technology that was men-
tioned was that related to antisubmarine warfare.
The general feeling among several of the respond-
ents was that the continued invulnerability of the
strategic undersea deterrent could be seriously
questioned. Several felt that acoustic sensor and
signal processing technologies are likely to experi-
ence a major improvement, while another felt that
nonacoustic techniques are more likely to provide
the significant change in the state-of-the-art. But,
regardless of the precise direction in which changes
might occur, the feeling is that the ASW area is
ripe for major technological advance. -
TOPICS RECEIVING SINGLE MENTIONS
Fluid dynamics was mentioned as an area pos-
sibly due for a major change, in both the under-
standing of turbulence and also the control of the
laminar-turbulent transition as well as our com-
putational capability, to handle the optimization
of three-dimensional flows numerically.
Covert underwater remotely piloted vehicles
were discussed by one individual, while another
pointed out that advances occurring in inertial
guidance technology were likely to have a major
impact on our ability, to navigate under water.
Radar technology was seen as moving into the
higher frequency (50-100 GHz), wider bandwidth
region both for high resolution active-mode appli-
cations as well as for passive-mode seekers.
The need for long endurance aircraft was pro-
jected; both small remotely piloted solar-powered
vehicles for surveillance and relay purposes and
dirigibles as a logistics alternative to surface ships
were mentioned. -
Aircraft signatures, both IR and radar, were seen
as a cause for concern, the former from the stand-
point of the likelihood of passive target acquisition
and the latter as a speculation into what kinds of
tactical aircraft were likely to result should minimi-
-,zation of the radar cross -section drive the design.
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NONSPECIFIC THREATS
Slightly over half of the threats to national se-
curity that were voiced were of such a nature that
they could not be directly or uniquely identified
with the Soviet Union alone. For the most part,
the threats could be characterized as unconventional
attacks, often economic in their nature or impact,
and involving low levels of violence.
One major theme consists of observations con-
cerning the projected worldwide scarcity of re-
sources; shortages of or artificial constraints on
materials critical to national security; over-popu-
lation and famine projections; and agricultural/
chemical warfare directed against food supplies.
The essence of these arguments is that the world
will suffer from these shortages, leading directly
to tension and violence or their manipulation in a
form of economic warfare.
Closely coupled to this is the possibility of
weather and/or climate control. While the tech-
niques and objectives of these two activities would
be somewhat different, they differ scientifically
only in the temporal and spatial scale over which .
control is exercised and, hence, will be considered
together. Climatological warfare could be initiated
as a hostile act or it could result from well-inten-
tioned attempts at national development, particu-
larly development aimed at increasing the supply
of food. This, in turn, could be motivated by in-
ternal needs or by a desire to acquire security-
bargaining chips.
Thus, a substantial case is made that some of
the fundamental metrics of national security may
arise not out of classical force ratios but instead
will be derived from indicators of economic ac-
tivity. This led one interviewee to speculate about
how we could even tell if economic warfare is being
waged and how we would chart its progress. An-
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Hypersonic aircraft driven by supersonic com-
bustion ramjets and capable of achieving orbital
velocities were seen as a possibility by one
respondent.
Another saw charged particle beam weapons as
a possibility.
growing economic capability if those inhibitions
could be overcome. This led to a discussion of tech-
nology.transfer and the ways in which the Soviet
system could change dramatically as the result of
wider economic, technological, and cultural con-
tacts. Another interviewee expressed concern that
the Soviets may have an effective crop forecasting
system that does or could give them an important
market advantage.
SOVIET-SPECIFIC THREATS
As might be expected, a number of concerns
were voiced about Soviet activities and threats.
The Soviet capability to wage war in and from
space, the likelihood of such a development, and
a possibly greater future dependence of the US
than the Soviets on space systems was remarked
by several people. The vigor of the Soviet R&D
program in high energy lasers, ABM technology,
cruise missiles, and very high yield nuclear weap-
ons was emphasized and the possibility of surprises
to the US by virtue of our conceivably lesser under-
standing was expressed. This same concern was
directed even more strongly to the case of the life
sciences in general and genetic engineering in par-
ticular. The feeling of several respondents was that
the Soviet Union may investigate what we will
choose not to, with consequent possible crisis impli-
cations in the future.
On a more politico-military theme, a shift in the
military balance to the Soviets was expressed,
especially in areas such as the Mediterranean where
naval superiority is crucial. The break-up of tra-
ditional US alliances was also noted and, hence,
the need for the US to project its power without the
land bases and ocean control we have enjoyed
in the past was emphasized. Finally, it was felt
that the success the Soviets have had in aligning
with insurgents could be a factor in future shifts
in the global balance. At the same time, the po-
tential role of technology in compensating for these
political developments was pointed out, especially
in. new ways to provide global transportation that
is less dependent on overseas bases.
While the discussion of Soviet-specific threats
followed a fairly conventional military line, there
was some speculation of a more economic/man-
agerial type. One respondent emphasized the effect
of the Soviet social organization on inhibiting
progress and, hence, the potential for a rapidly
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other argued that such economic activity organized
in support of national goals and policies is a natural
mode of behavior for a planned, socialist state.
Finally, the differences between purely national and
multinational business entities were noted from
the standpoint of the inherent difficulty in identify-
ing the "combatants."
A second major theme involves somewhat greater
levels of violence and relates to terrorist activities
and nth country nuclear threats. The possibility that
terrorists might steal or build weapons was men-
tioned, as was the inexpensive and relatively low
level of technology requisite for certain kinds of
chemical and biological warfare, whether practiced
by terrorists or nth countries.
Nuclear proliferation was foreseen as a future
threat, especially as it will be encouraged and
facilitated by the development of laser isotope
.-separation. Access to 235U can be expected to be
relatively easy, for subnational groups as well as
nation-states, quite independently of the growth of
nuclear power facilities. And with the widespread
availability of fissionable materials will come the
increased likelihood of terrorist nuclear threats.
Competition for the seabed was mentioned, al-
though the context was antisubmarine warfare and
other strategic military issues instead of the food
and material resources foci that one might have
expected.
The ease of penetration of computer-based com-
mand and control systems was mentioned, while
another respondent raised questions about the sta-
bility of our present physical security arrangements
with respect to theft, sabotage, the actions of the
psychotic personality, and accidental war. Another
raised the likelihood of unidentified attacks-that
is, the inherent difficulty of identifying the authen-
tic source of the threat, and thus, the precipitation
of hostilities through third-party provocation or
inadvertence. '
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Mmw
VIEWS ON EMERGING AREAS OF SCIENCE AND
TECHNOLOGY POTENTIALLY IMPORTANT TO NATIONAL SECURITY
Distribution
STIC 75-4
December 1975
No. of Copies
External
Recipient
National Security Council/IL
Rm 381, EOB
U.S. Information Agency, IOR/L
For USIA Science Adviser/OP
Rm 532, 1750 Pa. Ave., N.W.
Department of State
INR/CC, Rm 6510, New State Bldg.
Defense Intelligence Agency
DS-4C, Bldg. A
Arlington Hall Station
GMAIC
Rm 2A266, Pentagon
Energy Research and
Development Administration
Division of Intelligence
Rm C111, Germantown, Md.
3-for Lab. Directors'- LLL,
National Security Agency
Attn: C54/CDB, Rm 2E024
Fort George G. Meade, Md.
AD/DIA DP-5
Room 3E237
Pentagon
Mail F Records Branch (Army)
Room 1C460
Pentagon
LASL, Sandia
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i CONFIDENTIAL 4
No. of Copies Recipient
23*
2-, y _ X36
Estimates $ USIB Matters (Navy)
OP92B1, Room 5B667
ACSI, USAF
Attn: AF/INSA
Room 4C1088
Pentagon
D/FBI
Room 4637
J. Edgar Hoover Bldg.
9th $ Pa. Ave. N.W.
Special Asst to the Sec'y of the Treasury
Room 4328
Main Treasury Building
IR DC
Please forward to OSI/SIC, Rm 6F35 for dissemination
-2-
CONFIDENTIAL
3-
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