SOVIET ARMS SHIPMENTS TO CUBA IN 1978 AND TRENDS IN 1979

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP06T01849R000200100044-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 11, 2012
• Sequence Number: 44
• Publication Date: September 1, 1979
• Content Type: REPORT

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National
Foreign
Assessment
Center
%~t I f, ?"
Top Secret
September
ER 79-1050I J
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Copy 13 8
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Soviet Arms Shipments
to Cuba in 1978 and
Trends in 1979
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National
Foreign
Assessment
Center
Trends in 1979
Soviet Arms Shipments
to Cuba in 1978 and
Research for this report was completed
on 31 August 1979
This paper was jointly produced by the Office of
Economic Research and the Cuban Analytic Center
in the Office of Political Analysis. Comments and
queries are welcome and should be addressed to
Officer for the USSR
The paper has been coordinated with the Office of
Strategic Research and the National Intelligence
Top Secret
ER 79-10501J
,September 1979
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Soviet Arms Shipments
to Cuba in 1978 and
Trends in 1979F-
Overview The overall technical sophistication of identified Soviet military deliveries to
Cuba increased substantially in 1978; the volume of deliveries rose for the
fourth consecutive year and reached the highest level in more than a decade.
This pattern of improved quality and high levels of arms shipments has
continued in the first eight months of 1979. The strong upward trend in arms
shipments began in early 1976. While a portion of the newer ground
equipment has been assigned to the Soviet brigade in Cuba, the bulk of the
arms flow in recent years reflects the USSR's ongoing effort to modernize
Cuba's armed forces, and to provide replacements for military equipment
supplied by Havana to Third World countries, especially Angola and
Shipments in 1978 were highlighted by Havana's initial receipt of MIG-23
jet fighter aircraft in the spring. Another first during the past year was the
delivery of 20 AN-26 short-range cargo/troop transports. Delivery contin-
ued on major hardware items previously seen in Cuba, including T-62 tanks
and ZSU-23/4 self-propelled antiaircraft guns. Deliveries thus far in 1979
have included an F-class submarine (the first submarine in Cuba's Navy)
and two Turya-class hydrofoil patrol boats.
The Soviet modernization effort has substantially enhanced Cuba's
capability to conduct a more mobile mechanized warfare, including limited
air assault operations. This contrasts sharply with Cuba's historic role of
maintaining largely a "garrison force." The inflow of newer equipment
provides Havana with a large and more sophisticated arms inventory at
home while strengthening its ability to undertake offensive military
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Soviet Arms Shipments
to Cuba in 1978 and
Trends in 1979
In the six-year period following the 1968 low, Soviet
arms deliveries to Cuba remained between 10,000 and
12,600 tons. Beginning in 1975, deliveries grew stead-
ily and by 1978 reached 22,400 tons-the highest level
in a decade. Arms deliveries in the first eight months of
1979 suggest that deliveries for the full year will
roughly equal the high 1978 level.
high of 41,100 tons in 1967 (see figure 1).
The USSR has supplied almost all the military
equipment Cuba has acquired since the early 1960s.'
The total value of Soviet arms shipments to Cuba from
1961 through yearend 1978 equals $1.55 billion 2
including about $150 million in 1978. On a volume
basis, annual arms deliveries to Cuba in the six years
following the 1962 missile crisis fluctuated widely,
ranging from a low of 6,200 metric tons in 1968 to a
from the quantitative analysis
'This analysis includes a full discussion of all identified arms
transfers to Cuba, whether by sea or air. However, the numerical
tabulation of annual arms shipments is based almost solely on
military equipment carried on Soviet merchant ships carrying
exclusively military cargoes. These seaborne deliveries, which in
most years accounted for over 95 percent of the identified military
equipment to Cuba, provide the most definitive year-to-year
comparisons of Soviet arms deliveries to Cuba. Deliveries of naval
combatants that sail or are towed to Cuba, as well as transport
aircraft flown to Cuba for transfer to the armed forces, are excluded
'All values are expressed in Soviet trade prices and include only
weapon systems and support materiel delivered to Cuba, virtually all
of which was destined for the Cuban armed forces. It does not
include the costs of developing and maintaining Soviet facilities and
personnel in Cuba or Soviet technical advisory assistance to the
Cuban armed forces. If the USSR's arms shipments to Cuba during
the 18-year period were valued at US costs of production (costs of
producing comparable weapon systems and support items in the
United States) instead of Soviet trade prices, the estimate would
Modernization and Offsets
While the USSR has for the most part provided for the
gradual improvement in Cuba's military equipment
inventory, the pace of modernization picked up in early
1976 and has accelerated since early 1978. As the
modernization effort quickened, the Soviets began to
offset deliveries of military equipment that Cuba was
shipping to Angola. We believe such offsets for arms
shipped by Cuba to Third World countries have
continued throughout the period and were underscored
most recently by replacement of the small but critically
important amount of military equipment supplied by
Cuba to the Nicaraguan Sandinistas prior to the
downfall of Somoza in July 1979.
If Moscow had supported neither the modernization
nor the offset program, the tonnage necessary to
support the Cuban armed forces at the 1974-75 level of
strength probably would have been about 12,500 tons
annually, the upper end of the range of shipments
between 1969 and 1974. Instead, arms shipments rose
for four consecutive years through 1978 to an annual
average rate of more the 19,000 tons.
Pattern of Arms Shipments
In 1978, a dozen Soviet ships delivered 22,400 tons of
military equipment to Cuba. Thus far in 1979, six
Soviet arms carriers have arrived in Cuba, bringing
10,900 tons of arms. All but one of these shipments was
exclusively military. In the one exception, the Soviet
ship-the Aleksandr Grin-arrived in December 1978
carrying mostly commercial cargo in its holds and
military hardware on deck.
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In addition to these major seaborne deliveries, smaller
amounts of military-related support equipment are
carried in ships transporting commercial cargoes or in
the cargo holds of Aeroflot IL-62 passenger aircraft,
which operate daily between Moscow and Havana.
The IL-62s may have been augmented by the arrival in
July of the first long-range IL-76 jet cargo transport
A second IL-76
flight to Cuba occurred in August. The aircraft flew on
to Nicaragua, probably carrying humanitarian aid.
Despite the overall air activity, the cargo capacity of
aircraft currently operating to Cuba remains almost
negligible when compared with seaborne arms deliv-
eries; aircraft, however, can provide quick emergency
delivery of critical weapons or parts.
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Mariel (64 kilometers west of Havana) remains
Cuba's primary port for the handling of military
equipment. Over the past few years, however, Havana
has been used with increasing frequency because its
pierside facilities can more easily handle heavy equip-
ment. For the first time in several years, one arms
carrier offloaded most of its cargo at Isabela (about
240 kilometers east of Havana) and another offloaded
arms at Nuevitas (about 470 kilometers east of
Havana).
Types of Equipment
We believe the bulk of military deliveries to Cuba in
1978 and thus far in 1979 consisted of small arms,
ammunition, assorted military trucks, and jeeps. In
addition to these standard shipments, Havana received
initial deliveries of MIG-23 fighter aircraft, AN-26
troop/cargo transports, and an F-class submarine.
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Havana for the first time last January
Besides the MIG-23s, Cuba has also received addi-
tional numbers of fighters already in inventory (16
MIG-21-Ls and 4 MIG-17s) and initial deliveries of
the MI-8 assault helicopter and the USSR's twin-
turboprop AN-26 transport. With the delivery and
assembly of the MI-8 assault helicopters in the spring
of 1978, a Cuban Air Force unit, probably a squadron
and the first of its kind in Cuba, was formed. The unit
was moved to Cienfuegos Airfield and one of its
missions probably includes training and tactics for
combat operations in Angola. Twenty AN-26s have
been delivered to date, with the first five arriving in the
fall of 1978. The AN-26 significantly enhances Cuba's
short-range cargo/troop airlift capacity: the aircraft
has a radius of 810 nautical miles and can carry either
38 lightly armed troops or 4 tons of equipment or some
combination of the two. The AN-26 will likely be used
by the new land and assault force that paraded in
The Aleksandr Gertsen
transiting the Bosporus en route
to Cuba on 30 April 1978 with a
hold cargo suspected ofinclud-
Naval
The Cuban Navy has received several types of ships
during the past 20 months: four additional Osa-II
patrol boats; two Turya-class patrol boats, and one
Foxtrot-class submarine. Three of the Osa-IIs were
towed to Cuba in 1978 and one thus far in 1979,
bringing the current inventory to six. The two Turyas
arrived in Havana in February 1979 as deck cargo on
the Soviet merchant ship Ola (see figure 3). Delivery
of the Turyas marked the first time Cuba was the
initial recipient of a Soviet weapons system as well as
the first time the item has been exported by the USSR.
The Foxtrot submarine, which was towed to Cuba
flying a Cuban naval ensign, arrived in Cienfuegos on
7 February 1979.
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deliveries to any particular arms recipient.
shift priorities and to raise quickly the level of
Soviet efforts to modernize the Cuban military and to
offset Havana's arms shipments to Third World
countries will continue so long as the political goals and
strategic needs of the two nations dovetail. Each of the
armed services is likely to benefit from ongoing
modernization. On a quantitative basis, the current
cycle of increased arms deliveries may be at or close to
a peak. Nevertheless, the Soviets have the capability to
potential remains.
The USSR is
aware of US concern about ground-attack aircraft in
Cuba. The reference made by a Cuban official last fall
about the possible delivery of the MIG-25 Foxbat was
subsequently denied by a Soviet official, but the
in Cuba,J
Future Soviet deliveries for the Cuban Army are likely
to consist primarily of additional quantities of the
newer ground equipment Havana began receiving in
1976. Most of the future fighter aircraft deliveries are
likely to be MIG-21 J, K, and L models already in the
Cuban Air Force. Additional MIG-23s would be a
logical complement to the small number now identified
The USSR appears intent on measured improvement
of Cuba's small Navy during the next few years. The
delivery of the F-class submarine, two Turya-class
patrol boats and a sixth Osa-II thus far in 1979 have
set a tone for such action. We expect Cuba to receive
additional F-class submarines and possibly some
Shershin-class motor torpedo boats, a logical comple-
ment to the Osa-IIs. At least one report indicates that
Cuba will receive an unspecified number of
Nanuchka-class guided-missile patrol boats. We also
look for the USSR to enhance Cuba's very limited
antisubmarine warfare capability, combining the de-
livery of ASW aircraft with the possible transfer of
light frigates such as the new Koni-class, which
includes launchers for MBU-2500 ASW rockets.
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