MILITARY THOUGHT (USSR): THE USE OF COMPUTERS FOR SOLVING PROBLEMS IN SUPPORT OF THE AIR DEFENSE OF TROOPS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP10-00105R000201320001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 3, 2012
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 30, 1975
• Content Type: MEMO

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The Use of Computers for Solving Problems
in Support of the Air Defense of Troops
(Based on the materials of exercises and war games)
by
Engineer Lieutenant Colonel I. Pintsov
In organizing the air defense of troops one is faced with the task of
solving a series of logic and analytic problems. The more complicated of
these include the selection of an, .optimal grouping of air defense means and
evaluating their combat effectiveness.
The question of selecting the
arises most noticeably in planning
to conduct large-scale regroupings
operations.
optimal grouping of air defense means
to repel the first enemy air strike and
of troops in the course of combat
The effectiveness of a grouping of air defense means depends primarily
on the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of their armament and
combat equipment, as well as on the composition of the enemy's air forces
and the methods of use of air attack means. Considerable difficulties are
involved in making the correct decision on the disposition of a grouping of
air defense means due to the large number of possible variants of
operations and an insufficient knowledge of the results of their
employment.
The mathematical calculation of the effectiveness of a grouping
usually serves as the criterion for evaluating a decision. The manual
method of calculation as well as calculations performed with keyboard
calculators give a general, approximate result which permits only a
comparative evaluation of different groupings. This is explained by the
fact that the manual solution of a problem such as a complex mathematical
model of a strike by air attack means cannot practically be performed to
its full extent. In view of this, the formula for evaluating the
effectiveness of combat operations by air defense means by the manual
method of calculation has been greatly simplified, and as a result certain
limitations have been artificially placed upon the accuracy of the results
obtained. The use of computers for this purpose makes it possible not only
to find the optimal variant of the grouping of air defense means for the
accepted estimate of the importance of targets being covered, 15ox1-11124to
determine the qunntitative indicators of combat effectiveness.
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In the Leningrad Military District a number of exercises and war games
have been held in which studies were made of the use of computers for the
automation and mechanization of the control of troops and to perform
various labor-consuming computational tasks both in the planning of front
operations as well as in carrying out such operations.
Calculations were made on the URAL-4 stationary general-purpose
computer at the computer center of the Leningrad Military District.
The following problems were solved on the URAL-4 computer in support
of the air defense of troops:
-- calculation of the effectiveness of the air
defense fighter aviation;
-- calculation of the effectiveness of a grouping
of surface-to-air missiles;
-- calculation of the movement of the air defense
units of a front during an operation.
A total of 15 variants of the problems were solved.
The problem of evaluating the effectiveness of the combat employment
of the fighter aviation in support of the air defense of a front was
treated most fully in the exercises. The solution of this problem on the
URAL-4 computer was worked out by one of the scientific research
institutes
The permanent data stored in the computer memory are the
tactical-technical characteristics of different types of aircraft and the
coefficients which determine the effectiveness of the combat employment of
the aircraft and its armament by element.
The variable data are:
-- flight conditions (day or night, weather conditions,
use of maneuvering and jarming);
-- flight altitude (low, medium and high,
stratospheric);
--the number of one's own fighters and
fighter-bombers by type;
-- the number of enemy aircraft by type.
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Preparation of the problem consists of a precise accounting of the air
forces of both sides by types of aircraft and the conditions of the attack.
On the average, approximately 50 minutes are required to prepare the
initial data, not counting the time spent on collecting data on the
complement and basing of a grouping of the attacking aviation and one's own
fighter aviation. Machine operating time is four to five minutes. The
result is printed on telegraph tape and on an automatic digital printer in
the form of four-digit groups.
A procedural entry is printed at the beginning and end of the message.
The total time required to solve a problem from the moment that the
preparation of initial data begins until the time that the processed data
are finally received is determined basically by the load on the
communications channels and averages three to four hours, which is Sally
acceptable for the present stage of computer application.
This same problem was solved on a keyboard calculator at the computer
staticn of the district staff using a method developed by the Kiev Higher
Artillery Engineering School i/n Kirov.
For comparison purposes, calculations were also performed using a
foimula for the mathematical expectation of the number of targets
destroyed:
=SxKxPd )
xP
where S is the total number of aircraft in a
grouping of the front fighter aviation;
K is the coefficient of combat readiness
of fighters in the grouping (0.9);
P is the probability of destroying one enemy
aircraft.
Further,
Pd = P *gui- x P at XPdes x Pnd X Krad x Ktr)
where Pis the probability of guiding the
fighter to the target;
P
at is the probability that the fighter
will attack the target;
P
des is the probability of destruction of
the attacked target;
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Pnd
Krad
Ktr
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is the probability that the attacked target
will not be destroyed by the fighter;
is the coefficient of electronic
countermeasures;
is the coefficient of technical
reliability.
As an example, let us consider the results of the solution of the
above problem obtained on the basis of a computation of the effectiveness
of the grouping of air defense fighter aviation in a front zone to repulse
a strike by the tactical aviation of the "'Nest".
The possible number of attacking aircraft is 165.
The number of air defense fighters used to repulse the attack is 318
of which 87 percent are all-weather fighters. The attack may be carried
out during either the day or night.
Up to 75 percent of the attacking aircraft can use various types of
maneuvers, and up to 40 percent can make the flight at low altitudes.
For the given grouping, the probability of shooting down one enemy
aircraft P = 0.67 x 0.85 x 0.73 x 0.82 x 0.7 x 0.9 = 0.214.
The results of a solution of the problem:
a) On the URAL-4 computer
Day attack
The expected result of destroying enemy aircraft:
-- at low altitudes, 19.3 percent (13 aircraft);
-- at high altitudes and in the stratosphere, 36.7
percent (36 aircraft).
Final result, 29.7 percent (49 aircraft).
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Night Attack
expected result of destroying enemy aircraft:
-- at low altitudes, 10.7 percent (seven aircraft);
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-- at high altitudes and in the stratosphere, 31.5
percent (31 aircraft).
Final result, 23.0 percent (38 aircraft).
b) On a keyboard calculator
Under any conditions the expected number of destroyed
aircraft is 57 (34.5 percent of the total number of
attacking aircraft).
c) Using a manual method
exp for a daylight attack = 61 aircraft
(/.0 percent) -
N1 exp for a night attack = 61 x 0.87 = 53
?
aircraft (32.2 percent),
where 0.87 is the percentage of all-weather fighters.
From a comparison of the results it is obvious that the results
obtained with the URA.I.-4 computer are more complete and make it possible to
consider not only the flight conditions of the air enemy but also the
quantitative and qualitative characteristics of engaging the enemy with a
grouping of air defense fighter aviation of a front. In absolute values
these results are closer to actual values since lrey take into
consideration a much larger total of mutually related factors which
determine the conditions of combating an air strike, as well as the
qualitative characteristics of the aircraft of both sides.
The disadvantage of using keyboard calculators for solving the problem
is the poor precisicn of the results due to a simplified consideration of
patterns of attack and also as a result of the fact that certain input
values, such as the distance from the home airfield and the corresponding
limits of target interception from the front line, the range of target
detection and the distances to ground guidance posts represent particular
characteristics of certain components of the front aviation and not of the
entire grouping of the front fighter aviation (the grouping of air defense
fighter aviation in its initialposition). Use of the averaged values of
these special characteristics results in a significant divergence of the
output data for the entire grouping as a whole. 50X1-HUM
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The use of manual methods of computing the mathematical expectation of
destroying air targets by fighter aviation gives only approximate results
which will differ from those obtained by other methods to the extent that a
greater number of averaged values are used to represent the coefficients
comprising the mathematical basis of the formula.
Certain shortcomings were found in solving this problem on the URAL-4
computer: in particular, the output data from the computer must be
transformed by introducing a certain percentage of low-flying aircraft
which is not taken into consideration in compiling the initial data, and
the results for each particular altitude as well as the final result must
be converted to absolute values.
A shortcoming of the algorithm of the problem is that it does not take
into consideration the duration of the attack and possible losses by one's
own fighter aviation due to enemy fire. This has a significant influence
on the estimate of the effectiveness of the combat employment of the
fighter aviation in support of the air defense of a front.
The effectiveness of the combat employment of surface-to-air missile
units was also computed by three methods--on the URAL-4 computer (the
problem was worked out by the Kiev Higher Artillery Engineering School i/n
Kirov), on a keyboard calculator and by the manual method.
Solution of the problem using the computer gave an unsatisfactory
result -- the destruction of from zero to six percent of the total number
of targets passing through the zone of fire. In our opinion the reason for
such understated results of the effectiveness of the grouping of
surface-to-air missile units is an improper mathematical modeling of the
control of this grouping (only centralized fire control was considered) and
the understated value that was used for the coefficients of effectiveness
of different components of the systems during combat. A mathematical model
of an attack by an air enemy requires the input of a large number of
probability characteristics as initial data, which are not readily
available to the officer-operator who is solving the problem. It would be
more advantageous if the basic parameters characterizing the mathematical
model of the attack were included as permanent information for the problem.
This problem should be worked out more thoroughly.
The result of solving this problem on a keyboard calculator was the
destruction of from 10 to 20 percent of the targets passing through the
zone of fire. The mathematical result is determined by using a model of an
attack by an air enemy as the basis for the calculations
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The use of the URAL-4 computer
defense troops of a front (amyl in
Higher Artillery Engineering School
the practical use of the results is
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to solve the problem of moving the air
an operation (worked out by the Kiev
i/n Kirov) was not very effective, and
complicated for the following reasons.
The temporary characteristics which determine the start of packing up,
movement, etc., in the problem, are closely tied to the rate of advance of
the troops being provided cover, which in itself is not a constant and
depends on many factors which are most frequently of a random nature. A
change in the rate of advance leads to a complete breakdown in all
parameters of a calculated movement timetable.
In our view the start of movement must be determined by a line, upon
reaching which a firing element is removed from the firing position; it
should not be determined by a time at which it is removed from the firing
position.
The problem involves making calculations for only three subunits
(firing elements). If there are more subunits in a unit, the problem must
be solved by the method in which they are grouped, disregarding the
organizational structure of the unit. This leads to an incorrect
calculation of the coefficient of cover of the troops provided by a
grouping of air defense means.
The use of computers for operational-tactical calculations presumes
not only that optimal values of multivariant problems will be found -- a
task which is practically impossible by the manual method, but also that
the time required for other calculations relating to the combat employment
of the troops will be shortened. The labor-consuming and unwieldy nature
of the preparatory work substantially reduces the effects of automating the
solution of this problem, since two to three hours are required to fill out
the inquiry statement alone.
The reviewed results of solving problems in support of the air defense
of the troops show that this work has already found its place in the
practical operations of the staffs; a further improvement of its forms and
methods is necessary. 50X1-HUM
This pertains first of all to the process of modeling a problem. It
is known that all operational-tactical problems are multivariant. In order
to have at least an approximation of the values being sought, a number of
formulas were derived, even before the appearance of the computer, which
could be used to obtain single-value answers. This was made possible
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through the use of different types of averaged coefficients in the
calculations.
Mathematical models of such problems have the following shortcoming:
certain averaged values of a series of quantities (coefficients) are
entered into the memory of the computer beforehand, and therefore, as a
rule, the invariance of the machine solution is not great. For example, in
a problem involving the estimation of the effectiveness of a grouping of
air defense fighter aviation, invariance comprises not more than six
solutions.
In compiling a model of an attack by air means it is best to consider
those variants which will create the most complex conditions of combat.
The machine solution must provide the conditions for the optimal solution
of the problem.
Usually the solutions give the result of the destruction of air
targets but do not make it possible to estimate losses experienced by the
active air defense means as a result of the air strike. This leads to
gross errors both in original as well as in subsequent calculations of the
effectiveness of the combat employment of air defense means in an
operation.
Practice gained in the use of computers for operational-tactical
calculations has shown the need for greater uniformity in the method of
making inquiry statements. Otherwise, the work of staff officers will be
greatly complicated and will lead to a waste of time and errors in the
calculations.
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