PROPOSED EXTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT, "THE AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY OF THE USSR:

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP59-00882R000200200050-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 10, 2001
• Sequence Number: 50
• Publication Date: May 17, 1955
• Content Type: MF

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17 Dly 1955
MIMMVM FOR: Project Review Committee
THROUGH: Deputy Director/Intelligence
SUBJECT: Proposed External Research Project,
"The Agricultural Economy of the USSR"
1. Transmitted herewith is an outline for a proposed
project on "The Agricultural Rconx of the USSR."
2. The ility of the support required by the
has been confirmed through the Office
of Operations, Contact Division.
H fy
Enclosure:
Project outline
Research and Reports
Assistant Director
MAY 1 7 1955
* Funds are available wit in the DD/I allocation for the current fiscal year.
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 Type of Project: Economic and statistical research.
17 limy 1955
PROJECT OUTLINE
Target Area: N.A.
b. Area Chief :
c. Monitor:
originating Divisions
a. Office Head
Project Cryptonym or Subject: The Agricultural EeonM of the US$R
Sub-Project Cryptofl ar Identification: N.A.
Amendment No.: N.A.
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Funds Requested: $47,720.00 for Fiscal Year 1955 and 19% .(to be available
until completion of the project -- estimated caalpletion date 30 Septeiber
1957).
Current Status: "New"
1. OBJECTIVE: The object of the proposed project is to produce studies
of the potential economic growth of the agriculture of the USSR from
unclassified data in order to supplement the research on regular projects
undertaken by the Office of Research and Reports.
2. ORIGIN AND POLICY GUIDANCE :
a. Origin: The proposed program originated following an assessment
of the research required to provide proper coverage of the 1iSSEt
agricultural econoW by
b. Whence Proposed: Headquarters.
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SITUATION: The study of the potential economic growth of the agricul-
ture of the USSR is 4 very important aspect in the understanding
of the long-run capabilities of the Soviet econoW. Agriculture
still uses upwards of ball of the total labor supply of the USSR
and its requirements for petroleum and fertilizers represent
significant proportions of the total output of the oil and chemical
industries. If agriculture continues to languish and achieves a
rate of output growth no larger than the population growth, the
consumer in the USSR can loot forward to little improvement in
his consumption level, not only for food but for other consump-
tion items as well.
Considerable unclassified data exist on the agricultural econoay
of the USSR which OIIUt with its present resources has not been able
to assimilate. In particular, CM has not been able to develop
studies on the following three major areas bearing on the econ-
omic growth of the agriculture in the USSR:
a. The first area is a study of growth of output over the past
several decades, with emphasis on the determination of the major
factors responsible for the growth. An effort will be made to
estimate the separate contributions of increased inputs and of
the combined effects of changes in technology and organizational
efficiency.
b. The second area consists of a study of the institutional or organi-
zational structure of the agriculture of the USSR and the implica-
tions of this structure and changes in it, to economic growth.
c. The third area includes the analysis of possible changes in the
quality and quantity of inputs used in agriculture for some
specified periods of time and the probable consequences upon
output. The third area involves a coordination of the other two,
but it also implies viewing agriculture as a part of the entire
economy in the sense that resources allocated to agriculture leave
alternative uses in the rest of the economy.
4. PROPOSAL: It is proposed that
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of
Wearing on toe potential economic growth of agriculture of the US3
in accordance with the outline below:
a. Three specific research studies are needed. They are:
(1)
(2)
Growth of output for the past several decades.
Institutional organizational. structure of the agriculture of
the USSR.
(3) Change in quality and quantity of inputs used in agriculture
since 1930.
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b. These studies will be mainly from primary unclassified (including
non-Russian sources, but will be organized so that they can be
easily integrated into work underway in CIRR. These studies are
designed to result in both qualitative analysis and statistical
computations accompanied by thorough documentation.
a. Sub-proposals or "tasks": H.A.
c. Indigenous groups and/or leaders: H.A.
d. Target groups: H.A.
e. Duration: Approximately 27 months to completion.
f. Graphic illustrations: I.A.
a. Cover: Agency interest in this contract will be classified
SRCRST. This contract will be handled on a classified contract
basis.
b. Knowledg ability: Sponsorship of this project by CIA will be made
known only to cleared representatives of those government agencies
having a specific interest in this project.
c. Operational Security: Will be implemented as necessary to protect
the project classification.
d. Risks: No undue reactions or repercussions in the event of com-
ji~se are anticipated. The research work itself will be un-
classified and will become classified only when incorporated into
the work being done inside CIA.
e. Personnel disposal: H.A.
f. Disaster Plan: H.A.
7. COc1 DIHATIfJI:
a. Relation to other gE2jects: In accordance with ;DCID 15/1, which
rquireprojects in support of economic intelligence production
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over $5,000 to be submitted to the RIC for review, this project
was submitted to the HIC Subcosmittee on Agriculture and sub-
sequently to the SIC. In both of these committees, the State
Department maintained the position along the following lines.
Although not objecting to the project, the State Department
called attention to three private projects which they believed
to be closely related and possibly partially duplicating the
proposed project. CM has carefully considered available in-
formation on the three private projects.
(1)
Project by Dr. George S. lCuznets of the National Bureau of
Researc This project began mi - 5.3 ow a grant
y the Rockefeller Foundation. Its principal officer is
Raymond W. Goldsmith. It is divided into four separate
sections: (a) input-output studies, (b) industry,
(c) agriculture, and (d) transportation and labor. It is
scheduled for completion in full by mid-1956. Dr. Kuznets
is the principal officer for the agricultural section of
the project, the title of which is "What Has Been the
Growth of the Soviet Econo1W over the Last Three Decades?*
Review of the content of the Kits study bad been made
prior to the present proposal. The Kuznets study is not
directed at the objectives of the present proposed project
although certain parts of the study will be pertinent.
Continued contact with the Kuznets research will be main-
tained and it is planned to avail ourselves of all informa-
tion which can be of value.
(2) Project by Vlladamir Timasbenko, Professor zmeritus. Stanford
AjrIIc oral .Development, 1939-1950," and it is expected to
be completed in late fail. Dr. Timashenko is a consultant
to the State Research Institute at Stanford University.
From what CRR can learn of the Tiaashenko project, it is
believed that for the period 1939-1950 the project will
provide some information of value, applicable to the pro-
posed study. However, the Timashenko study historically
covers a shorter period and is not pointed to the detail
of information needed in answer to questions covering the
three major areas bearing on the economic growth of agri-
culture in the USSR as provided for in the OII R proposal.
(3) Council of Economic and Industrial Research: The Air Force
s a contract with is council to research on Soviet
and Satellite economic, industrial, and material develop-
ment. In partial support of this project, the research
group is collecting statistics on Soviet agriculture in
support of target analysis. It is hoped that some of the
statistics gathered in the Council's study can be of use
in the proposed project.
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The State Department also made certain other comments which in-
volved the administration of the project all of which have been
noted and given just consideration in the OEt t plan for accomplish-
ing the project.
b. Significance within over-all r am in area: The research pro-
posed is basically supi~ingto recurring annual No's on long-
term estimates of Bloc and Free world power position and on
Soviet capabilities and strategic policy. The project does not
duplicate existing research and will extend further the informa-
tion on this strategic sector of the Soviet economy.
8. C0N'i OL:
a. Nature of: The project will be monitored by
Act ng ief, Ilslaterials Division, M.
c. Res: A mid-project and final report will eohstitue the major
reports on the proposed project. Direct contact between the pro-
ject monitor and interested offices and agencies will be encouraged
where appropriate, and interim reports may, when possible, be
designed to meet special needs. Reporting on progress will be
made to the EIC Subcommittee an Agriculture, as appropriate, and
to OSA/PC/DCI.
9. BUDGET DATA:
So Total over-all funds required for Fiscal Year 1925: +7,720.00
until completion or the project -- approximately
30 September 1957).
b. Availability of CIA funds required: ORR funds are available in
currant Fiscal 'tear for lo ligation of the entire project.
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C. Non-CIA funds: NA
d. Foreign currency: NA
Financial History: NA
g.
Future Requirements: NA
10.
SUPP
l' DATA:
a. Total CIA personnel: None
b. Material: None
d.
other CIA support: NA
e. Support required from, other U.S. Agencies: NA
U.
GEr AL CORSID ATIONS:
Commitments: No commitments have been made to date.
c. Effectiveness: NA
ci. Anticipated results: See J4 PROPOSAL above. ORR employee five
full-time analysts exploiting the classified data on the USSR
agricultural economy but does not have the capability to exploit
the valuable unclassified material on the subject. The proposed
project, under the competent direction can be
undertaken on a timely basis as externea research, providing
the results indicated in #4 above. This information will be
invaluable in the production by OFCR analysts of classified
finished intelligence.
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f. Policy questions: NA
g. Cass: No Congressional in lications are anticipated.
h. Extra Agency action: KA
i. Proprietary ccr a niea : RA
~. special considerations: NA
14 The project will. terminate upon production of the
k. u
final reports. 25X1
Assistant Direct
Research and Reports
OM/CIA
17 May 1955
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TAB A
*BU F01t THE PROJECp 4H THE
ALm
CF-fir
A.
Project Director
(1/2 time 2 years
$12,000.o0
B.
0 *12,000 per year)
Research Associate
(full-time 2 years
12,000.40
C.
0*6,000 per year)
Translator
(1/2 time for 18 mouths
3,000.40
0 $4,000 per year)
D. Graduate Assistant
(1/2 tame for 2 years
2,400.00
0$2,400per year)
B. Secretarial (part-time)
1,500.00
Consultant and Special Services
1,000.00
Domestic Travel
2,000.00
Special Project Material
500.00
Report printing
.00
Total Direct Cost . . . . . . $35,360.40
Indirect and
Overhead Costs oo
TOTAL COST . . . $47,720.00
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