CONFERENCE OF(Classified). (Classified) ON CHINA'S FOREIGN TRADE IN 1955 AND THE TRANSPORT INVOLVED JOINT STATEMENT OF RE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP61-00549R000100070005-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 17, 2012
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: June 18, 1956
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/17: CIA-RDP61-00549R000100070005-3
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CONFERENCE INTELLIGENCE AGM CIES
ON CHINA'S FOREIGN TRADE IN 1955
AND THE TRANSPORT INVOLVED
JCINT STATEMENT OF RESULTS
;NTRODUCTION
intelligence teams met from
4th-16th June, 1956 for discussions on nina's foreign trade in 1955
and the transport involved. The U.S. team consisted of representatives
of the Department of State, 0.N.I., A.C.S.I. and C.I.A.
95
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2. The trams taking part in similar discussions in previous years
were committed to producing jointly an agreed report covering all
aspects of the subject in considerable detail. On this occasioa,
however, they were instructed to limit themselves to exchanging views,
establishing the extent of their agreement on the principal aspect3 of
the subject and producing a short, joint statement reflecting the areas
of agreement and disagreement. This statement follows below.
GENERAL CONCLUSION
3. The discussions revealed no differences of opinion between the
two teams on matters of fundamental importance. Such differences as
emerged referred only to points of detail which do not affect the broad
agreement.
VALUE OF TRADE,
4. The Chinese have published only preliminary figures for the value
of their foreign trade in 1955, but both teams agree that it increased
considerably during the year. They estimate its distribution to have
been approximately as follows:-
VALUE OF CHINA'S FOREIGN TRADE IN 1955
Communist Countries
Imports
Exports
(millions of U.S. dollars)
U.S S R
1,485
915
European Satellites
?
450
450
Asian Satellites
65
185
Total Communist Countries
2, non
1,550
Non-Communist Countries
400
45n
DOTAL 2,400
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2,000
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5. China's total trade is estimated to have increased by a little more
than a quarter over that of 1954. The increase has been spread almost
equally between her trade with Communist and with Non-Communist countries
and the ratio between them remains much the same as in 1954, i.e. 80%
with the Communist and 20 with Non-Communist Countries.
6. The estimated division of China's trade with the other Bloc countries
is, as in previous years, tentative, the figures in the table above being
based primarily on deductions from official Chinese statements. Actually
it is difficult to reconcile the figures for the European Satellites as a
whole with what is known separately of the sea-borne and overland parts of
their trade with China. It may be that more trade moved overland than
has previouSly been thought likely, or that later Chinese announcements
will show the existing figures for Sino-European Satellite trade to be an
overestimate. This problem is complicated by aifficulties in interpret-
ing intelligence material about the commodity composition and therefore
the total value of unidentified sea-borne cargoes moving in both directions
between these countries and China. In any event trade with the U.S.S.R.
would account for over half of China's total foreign trade,
7. For the first time Communist China appears to have had a small export
surplus (estimated at /51) million) in her trade with Non-Communist
countries. On the other hand, she had a considerable illiport surplus in
her trade with the Bloc, in spite of the export surplus of over /100 million
with the Asian Satellites as a result of the Chinese Aid Programme. This
import surplus, estimated at)A54 million, probably reflects the transfer
of considerable quantities of Soviet military material to Chinese ower-
ship. These supplies were covered by a military loan from the U.S.S.R.
to China announced in the Chinese budget for 1955. The actual size of
the loan and the conditions attached to it are not yet known, but the U.S.
25X1 team considered /550 million a probable amount. pro-
visionally acce ts this figure and is confident :hF,t the true figure was
not less than 300 million.
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8. China's direct imports from Non-..Communist countries oonsisted mainly
of textile fibres, fertilizers, chemicals and rubber and she also imported
iron, steel and machinery from them via Gdynia in order to avoid Western
export ccntrols such transhipments at a minimum
of 150,00N tons (including 114,000 tons of iron and steel), valued at ,$'5
million, threegh compiling intelligence reports on specific shipments.
these transhipments at 240,000 tons (including
186,000 tons of iron and stoel) valued at /68 million, through examining
the manifests of a portion of the cargoes and prorating the composition
and origin of the total cargo on the basis of this sample. Both teams
agree to aolept a tentative estimate of about 200,000 tons, valued at
approximately/60 million, as a rough measure of this traffic
9. There have been few striking changes in the pattern of China's trade
with individual countries. But the year saw a further decline in the
use of Hong Kong as a direct channel for Chinese imports. There is also
some evidence of China's participation in the expansion of Bloc trade
with under-developed ceuntries, mainly in South-East Asia; so far,
however, her share of this trade is still small.
VOLUNE OF TRADE
10. Tho tonnages involved are estimated by both teams to have been
roughly as follows: -
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/17: CIA-RDP61-00549R000100070005-3
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2012/09/17 : CIA-RDP61-00549R000100070005-3
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VOLUME OF CHINA'S IMPORTS AND EXPORTS 1 55
(thousands of metric tons)
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IgZat2
From the U.S S R
By Sea
Overland
Total
30
------
1,970
2,000
"
"
European Satellites r**011,
420
150
570
it
"
Asian Satellites
- / \
515
515
"'
It
Non-Communist Countries .
it550?*)
-
1,550
101..OP...?0?1MM*?
UM110.........11
.P00....M.*.1
TOTAL
2,000
2,635
4,635
To the U.S.S R
" " European Satellites ..
612,
1,25000)
3,388
200
4,000
1 p 45 0
" Asian Satellites .....
35
1,225
1,260
" Non-Communist Countries
2,720
132
2,852
so??????????
TOTAL
.4,617
4./945
9,562
Including about 200,000 tons of unrecorded imports, valued at
about AO million, from Western Europe ? which were transhipped
at Gdynia and about 75,000 tons, valued at about /15 million, of
unrecorded imports from South East Asian countries.
(b) Including exports off-loaded at non-Communist European ports,
mainly Hamburg and Rijeka, and sent overland to the European
Satellites. This figure also includes about 30,000 tons of
foods, valued- at 4. little less than $5 million, which were
resold by the Satellite consignces and delivered to Western
Europe.
11. These figures show that the volume of China's trade increased
by roughly one-third over 1954 to some 14 million tons. Seaborne
tonnages increased by about .30, to 6.6 million tons; measurement of
overland tonnages for both years is necessarily less precise. Imports
totalled 4.6 million tons and among the major tonnages were fertilisers
from non-Bloc countries, P.O.L. from Bloc countries and iron and steel
ffom both. Exports totalled 9.6 million tons, the major tonnagps
being cereals, oilseeds, coal, iron ore and pig iron.
TRANSPORT AND TRANSPORT SERVICES
12. lumina Review of the details of individual ship voyages to 25X1
and from Communist China in 1955 resulted in complete agreement
faoilitated by pre-conference exchange
of basic information and tabulations for 1955. Final conference checks
of previously unresolved voyages indicate that the advance U.S.
tabulations of shipping data were correct to within one per cent of the
total tonnages. Accordingly the following general picture of the
shipping pattern has been agreed without recalculation for minor
conference changes.
13. There was an increase of almost 20% in the gross registered tonnage
of the ships arriving in China in 1955 compared to 1954, Communist China
continued to be heavily dependent on nen-Bloc shipping, which accounted
for 8th of the tonnage of all 1955 arrivals. Slightly over half of the
non-Bloc tonnage was under British flag; another quarter was Japanese,
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Dutch and Norwegian; and the remainder was divided among thirteen other
Free World countries. Bloc shipping arrivals were composed of Soviet,
Polish, and Czech ships (60i6, 35f; and 5h or the tonnage respectively).
Chinese ships carried no ocean-borne trade except a. small export to North
Vietnam). China, however, shares control with Poland over the services
provided by Polish vessels on the Chinese run, but the details of the
particular arrangements involved are difficult to determthn
14. The general pattern of non-Bloc shipping movements was relatively
little changed in 1955 over 1954. There were, however, noticeable
changes in the 1 955 pattern of Bloc shipping arrivals, particularly a
sharp increase in the number of tankers from Europe which unloaded
P.O.L. in the Soviet Far East before proceeding in ballast to China to
pick up return cargoes. Thus 59% of Bloc ships arriving in China
came from the Soviet Far East, but only 39fQ of Bloc ships leaving
China went to that area.
15. The shipping tonnage in Communist China's foreign trade during
1955 by geographic area of origin and destination is agreed to have been
distributed substantially as indicated in the following table:-
ORIGIN AND DESTINATIONS OF SHIPPING TONN.LIGE IN
CHINA'S FOREIGN TRADE lm
-.2!Gaaa.1112_62:21
alau
(Per cent of Total
Destinations
(Per cent of Tal
grailat
Western Europe
27
29
Japan
2/4.
20
Hong Kong
17
20
Bloc Europe
9
13
U.S.S.R. (Far East)
6
7
Other
17
11
????110011.?I?egmare
100
100
71.11.1?1?01.1?11.....1
i6. Inland Trans ort g2Ene2t1212, The teams agree that the rail-
roads continued to carry. oVer7-51r-of China's overland foreign trade.
The Sungari River, a fow roads and air transport carried the small
remaining balance. There have been two significant developments
during 1 955 and early 1956. The completion of the trans-.1tongoliaki
railroad represents a valuable addition to the facilities for the
movement of trade between Chinn and the U.S.S.R. The rehabilitation
of railroads in North Vietnam has improved trnnsport connections
between that area and China.
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18TH JUNE, 1956.
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/17: CIA-RDP61-00549R000100070005-3