CONFERENCE OF(Classified). (Classified) ON CHINA'S FOREIGN TRADE IN 1955 AND THE TRANSPORT INVOLVED JOINT STATEMENT OF RE

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Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP61-00549R000100070005-3
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RIPPUB
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S
Document Page Count: 
4
Document Creation Date: 
December 22, 2016
Document Release Date: 
September 17, 2012
Sequence Number: 
5
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Publication Date: 
June 18, 1956
Content Type: 
REPORT
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/17: CIA-RDP61-00549R000100070005-3 25X1 25X1 25X1 CONFERENCE INTELLIGENCE AGM CIES ON CHINA'S FOREIGN TRADE IN 1955 AND THE TRANSPORT INVOLVED JCINT STATEMENT OF RESULTS ;NTRODUCTION intelligence teams met from 4th-16th June, 1956 for discussions on nina's foreign trade in 1955 and the transport involved. The U.S. team consisted of representatives of the Department of State, 0.N.I., A.C.S.I. and C.I.A. 95 25X1 2. The trams taking part in similar discussions in previous years were committed to producing jointly an agreed report covering all aspects of the subject in considerable detail. On this occasioa, however, they were instructed to limit themselves to exchanging views, establishing the extent of their agreement on the principal aspect3 of the subject and producing a short, joint statement reflecting the areas of agreement and disagreement. This statement follows below. GENERAL CONCLUSION 3. The discussions revealed no differences of opinion between the two teams on matters of fundamental importance. Such differences as emerged referred only to points of detail which do not affect the broad agreement. VALUE OF TRADE, 4. The Chinese have published only preliminary figures for the value of their foreign trade in 1955, but both teams agree that it increased considerably during the year. They estimate its distribution to have been approximately as follows:- VALUE OF CHINA'S FOREIGN TRADE IN 1955 Communist Countries Imports Exports (millions of U.S. dollars) U.S S R 1,485 915 European Satellites ? 450 450 Asian Satellites 65 185 Total Communist Countries 2, non 1,550 Non-Communist Countries 400 45n DOTAL 2,400 --SECRET 2,000 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/17: CIA-RDP61-00549R000100070005-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/17: CIA-RDP61-00549R000100070005-3 SECRET . 5. China's total trade is estimated to have increased by a little more than a quarter over that of 1954. The increase has been spread almost equally between her trade with Communist and with Non-Communist countries and the ratio between them remains much the same as in 1954, i.e. 80% with the Communist and 20 with Non-Communist Countries. 6. The estimated division of China's trade with the other Bloc countries is, as in previous years, tentative, the figures in the table above being based primarily on deductions from official Chinese statements. Actually it is difficult to reconcile the figures for the European Satellites as a whole with what is known separately of the sea-borne and overland parts of their trade with China. It may be that more trade moved overland than has previouSly been thought likely, or that later Chinese announcements will show the existing figures for Sino-European Satellite trade to be an overestimate. This problem is complicated by aifficulties in interpret- ing intelligence material about the commodity composition and therefore the total value of unidentified sea-borne cargoes moving in both directions between these countries and China. In any event trade with the U.S.S.R. would account for over half of China's total foreign trade, 7. For the first time Communist China appears to have had a small export surplus (estimated at /51) million) in her trade with Non-Communist countries. On the other hand, she had a considerable illiport surplus in her trade with the Bloc, in spite of the export surplus of over /100 million with the Asian Satellites as a result of the Chinese Aid Programme. This import surplus, estimated at)A54 million, probably reflects the transfer of considerable quantities of Soviet military material to Chinese ower- ship. These supplies were covered by a military loan from the U.S.S.R. to China announced in the Chinese budget for 1955. The actual size of the loan and the conditions attached to it are not yet known, but the U.S. 25X1 team considered /550 million a probable amount. pro- visionally acce ts this figure and is confident :hF,t the true figure was not less than 300 million. 25X1 25X1 8. China's direct imports from Non-..Communist countries oonsisted mainly of textile fibres, fertilizers, chemicals and rubber and she also imported iron, steel and machinery from them via Gdynia in order to avoid Western export ccntrols such transhipments at a minimum of 150,00N tons (including 114,000 tons of iron and steel), valued at ,$'5 million, threegh compiling intelligence reports on specific shipments. these transhipments at 240,000 tons (including 186,000 tons of iron and stoel) valued at /68 million, through examining the manifests of a portion of the cargoes and prorating the composition and origin of the total cargo on the basis of this sample. Both teams agree to aolept a tentative estimate of about 200,000 tons, valued at approximately/60 million, as a rough measure of this traffic 9. There have been few striking changes in the pattern of China's trade with individual countries. But the year saw a further decline in the use of Hong Kong as a direct channel for Chinese imports. There is also some evidence of China's participation in the expansion of Bloc trade with under-developed ceuntries, mainly in South-East Asia; so far, however, her share of this trade is still small. VOLUNE OF TRADE 10. Tho tonnages involved are estimated by both teams to have been roughly as follows: - 2 - SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/17: CIA-RDP61-00549R000100070005-3 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2012/09/17 : CIA-RDP61-00549R000100070005-3 SECRET VOLUME OF CHINA'S IMPORTS AND EXPORTS 1 55 (thousands of metric tons) 25X1 IgZat2 From the U.S S R By Sea Overland Total 30 ------ 1,970 2,000 " " European Satellites r**011, 420 150 570 it " Asian Satellites - / \ 515 515 "' It Non-Communist Countries . it550?*) - 1,550 101..OP...?0?1MM*? UM110.........11 .P00....M.*.1 TOTAL 2,000 2,635 4,635 To the U.S.S R " " European Satellites .. 612, 1,25000) 3,388 200 4,000 1 p 45 0 " Asian Satellites ..... 35 1,225 1,260 " Non-Communist Countries 2,720 132 2,852 so?????????? TOTAL .4,617 4./945 9,562 Including about 200,000 tons of unrecorded imports, valued at about AO million, from Western Europe ? which were transhipped at Gdynia and about 75,000 tons, valued at about /15 million, of unrecorded imports from South East Asian countries. (b) Including exports off-loaded at non-Communist European ports, mainly Hamburg and Rijeka, and sent overland to the European Satellites. This figure also includes about 30,000 tons of foods, valued- at 4. little less than $5 million, which were resold by the Satellite consignces and delivered to Western Europe. 11. These figures show that the volume of China's trade increased by roughly one-third over 1954 to some 14 million tons. Seaborne tonnages increased by about .30, to 6.6 million tons; measurement of overland tonnages for both years is necessarily less precise. Imports totalled 4.6 million tons and among the major tonnages were fertilisers from non-Bloc countries, P.O.L. from Bloc countries and iron and steel ffom both. Exports totalled 9.6 million tons, the major tonnagps being cereals, oilseeds, coal, iron ore and pig iron. TRANSPORT AND TRANSPORT SERVICES 12. lumina Review of the details of individual ship voyages to 25X1 and from Communist China in 1955 resulted in complete agreement faoilitated by pre-conference exchange of basic information and tabulations for 1955. Final conference checks of previously unresolved voyages indicate that the advance U.S. tabulations of shipping data were correct to within one per cent of the total tonnages. Accordingly the following general picture of the shipping pattern has been agreed without recalculation for minor conference changes. 13. There was an increase of almost 20% in the gross registered tonnage of the ships arriving in China in 1955 compared to 1954, Communist China continued to be heavily dependent on nen-Bloc shipping, which accounted for 8th of the tonnage of all 1955 arrivals. Slightly over half of the non-Bloc tonnage was under British flag; another quarter was Japanese, - 3 - SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/17: CIA-RDP61-00549R000100070005-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/17: CIA-RDP61-00549R000100070005-3 I SECRET Dutch and Norwegian; and the remainder was divided among thirteen other Free World countries. Bloc shipping arrivals were composed of Soviet, Polish, and Czech ships (60i6, 35f; and 5h or the tonnage respectively). Chinese ships carried no ocean-borne trade except a. small export to North Vietnam). China, however, shares control with Poland over the services provided by Polish vessels on the Chinese run, but the details of the particular arrangements involved are difficult to determthn 14. The general pattern of non-Bloc shipping movements was relatively little changed in 1955 over 1954. There were, however, noticeable changes in the 1 955 pattern of Bloc shipping arrivals, particularly a sharp increase in the number of tankers from Europe which unloaded P.O.L. in the Soviet Far East before proceeding in ballast to China to pick up return cargoes. Thus 59% of Bloc ships arriving in China came from the Soviet Far East, but only 39fQ of Bloc ships leaving China went to that area. 15. The shipping tonnage in Communist China's foreign trade during 1955 by geographic area of origin and destination is agreed to have been distributed substantially as indicated in the following table:- ORIGIN AND DESTINATIONS OF SHIPPING TONN.LIGE IN CHINA'S FOREIGN TRADE lm -.2!Gaaa.1112_62:21 alau (Per cent of Total Destinations (Per cent of Tal grailat Western Europe 27 29 Japan 2/4. 20 Hong Kong 17 20 Bloc Europe 9 13 U.S.S.R. (Far East) 6 7 Other 17 11 ????110011.?I?egmare 100 100 71.11.1?1?01.1?11.....1 i6. Inland Trans ort g2Ene2t1212, The teams agree that the rail- roads continued to carry. oVer7-51r-of China's overland foreign trade. The Sungari River, a fow roads and air transport carried the small remaining balance. There have been two significant developments during 1 955 and early 1956. The completion of the trans-.1tongoliaki railroad represents a valuable addition to the facilities for the movement of trade between Chinn and the U.S.S.R. The rehabilitation of railroads in North Vietnam has improved trnnsport connections between that area and China. 25X1 18TH JUNE, 1956. _ - SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/17: CIA-RDP61-00549R000100070005-3