POST-MORTEM ON NIE 100-4-57: IMPLICATIONS OF GROWING NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES FOR THE COMMUNIST BLOC AND THE FREE WORLD DATED 9 JULY 1957

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP61-00549R000100160032-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 13, 1999
• Sequence Number: 32
• Publication Date: August 26, 1957
• Content Type: REPORT

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IAC-D-57/74
26 August 1957
Post-Mortem on NIE 100-4.-57:
Implications of Growing Nuclear Capabilities for
the Communist Bloc and the Free World
dated 9 July 1957
1 . Findings
1. Since much of NIE 100-4-57 involves judgments concerning
the future effects of nuclear developments, it is difficult to assess
the extent of intelligence gaps. In response to the post-mortem
on NIE 100-5-55: "Implications of Growing Nuclear Capabilities
for the Communist Bloc and the Free World" (IAC-Dm57/10,
23 August 1955) there has been a continuing growth in both the
scope and volume of information available on public and official
attitudes toward nuclear problems. A number of US sponsored
opinion polls bearing on some aspects of the problem were avail-
able and a substantial amount of up-to-date information was
obtained from in response to the specific 25X1X
requirements of NIE 100-4-57.
2. However, there is still a need for additional concrete and
detailed information on public attitudes and the effects of nuclear
developments on government policies in non-Communist states.
We have little data on popular views and attitudes within the Bloc
and on the effects of nuclear weapons developments on Bloc
policies and military programs. At the same time, there is a very
broad range of information from diverse sources which needs
continued collation and analysis to render it useful in the estimative
process.
3. While it would be helpful and desirable to have more
detailed information concerning the state of public opinion, we
recognize that such data has serious limitations as "evidence" in
supporting longer-range estimates of popular reactions and
government policies. Public opinion is subject to rapid change,
it can be shaped by energetic government leadership, and there is
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26 August 1957
no necessary correlation, even in a democratic society, between
the popular mood of the moment and the policies which responsible
leaders will pursue in support of their conceut of the national
interests. We have no techniques available in the social science
field which make possible accurate forecasts of popular reactions
to future developments. The problem of assessing future popular
and governmental reactions is particularly difficult in a paper
like NIE 100-4-57 where we deal with threats of unprecedented
magnitude to personal and national existence. Despite these
difficulties, we believe that it is essential to -continue efforts to
expand and systematize the collection of pertinent materials.
Information which would be particularly useful - on both the non-
Communist world and the Bloc where pertinent - would be that
related to the effects of nuclear developments on:
(a) attitudes and policies with respect to alliances, and
with respect to regional cooperation in development of
nuclear capabilities,
(b) neutralist or isolationist tendencies,
(c) prospects for employment of and reaction to
attempted nuclear "blackmail",
(d) military organization and strategic concepts
(including intentions and capabilities with respect to
development of nuclear capabilities -- what types of
weapons and delivery systems are being planned or
developed),
(e) popular attitudes and government policies, including
propaganda, with respect to testing, possession, production,
deployment, and use of nuclear weapons.
11. Action
1. That collection and analysis of such data be continued on a
systematic basis in anticipation of continuing requirements for
judgments on the implications of developing nuclear capabilities.
2. That the intelligence community take steps to insure that
it has available any pertinent studies of public opinion and human
behavior.
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