POST-MORTEM ON NIE 54-58: THE OUTLOOK FOR CEYLON, DATED 18 MARCH 1958

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP61-00549R000100170026-9
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 26, 2000
• Sequence Number: 26
• Publication Date: March 26, 1958
• Content Type: NOTES

Approved For Release 2000/08/17 : tR PT 00549R000100170026-9
IAC-D-57/95
26 March 1958
Post-Mortem on NIE 54-58:
The Outlook for Ceylon,
dated 18 March 1958
1. Findin
1. Preparation of this estimate was handicapped by a dearth of
detailed information bearing on the organization, character, and
functioning of Ceylon's leftist political parties and on the personalities,
strengths, objectives, and allegiances of their leaders. For example,
we lack adequate information regarding:
a. The apparent struggle between moderate and radical
elements within the Sri Lanka Freedom Party and the ex-
tent of Gunawardena's following within that party in the
event of a showdown between him and Bandaranaike.
b. Bandaranaike's and Gunawardena's estimates of
and attitudes toward each other; the cohesion of the People's
United Front in various contingencies.
C., Gunawardena's attitude toward Moscow.
d. The actual strength (membership) of the three
Communist parties.
2. We also lack adequate information regarding:
a. The political sentiments of Ceylonese military
leaders and the circumstances by which they would be
moved to intervene in politics.
b. Equipment, training, discipline, morale, ethnic
and religious composition, and loyalties of the armed
forces and the police.
c. The extent of Communist penetration of the armed
forces, police, and civil service.
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IAC-D-57/95
26 March 1958
d. The nature and importance of Ceylonese public
opinion on key political and economic issues; which
elements in society have most influence in shaping public
opinion; what is the influence and attitude of the vernacular
press,
e. The amount spent annually on economic development
and the extent of progress in replanting rubber, coconuts,
and tea.
3. Possible future developments requiring close scrutiny are:
a. A break-up of the Peoples' United Front; possible
political realignments in that event.
b. Communal tensions, particularly as between
Sinhalese Buddhists and Ceylonese and Indian Tamils.
C. The progress of Communist efforts to extend their
influence in rural areas; Communist exploitation of com-
munal tensions, particularly evidences of Communist-Tamil
cooperation.
d. Collaboration between the three Communist parties.
e. The impact of Gunawardena's collectivization
projects.
f. Progress toward a revitalization of the United National
Party; evolution toward a new program and leadership and
popular and political reaction thereto.
yL. The magnitude and effects of increasing Sino-Soviet
aid and trade.
The IAC agencies are requested to take such action as is
feasible to remedy the above weaknesses in intelligence coverage.
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