THE SOVIET GUIDED MISSILE PROGRAM

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Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP61-00549R000100210014-7
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RIPPUB
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T
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9
Document Creation Date: 
November 16, 2016
Document Release Date: 
January 6, 2000
Sequence Number: 
14
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Publication Date: 
April 30, 1957
Content Type: 
REPORT
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PDF icon CIA-RDP61-00549R000100210014-7.pdf655.26 KB
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Approved For Release 2000/04/Voi,CHAW61-00549R000100210014-7 30 April 1957 Final - IAC Approved PROPOSED BRIEFING FOR CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE on "TBE SOVIET GUIDED MISSILE MCGRAW* INTRODUCTION 1, The purpose of this presentation is to furnish a wermee.7 of the US intelligence community's latest estimates of Soviet guided missile capabilities and probable programs. The intelligence commenity includes the intelligence organizatiens of the State Department, Army, Navy, Air Force, the joint Chiefs of Staff, Atomic Energy Commission,. Federal Bureau of -Investigation, and the Central -Intelligence Agency, -which has a coordinating responsibility in the field of national intelligence. Inasmuch as our intelligence community is responsible for producing intelligence on foreign'powers and is neither responsible nor qualified to evaluate comparable US programs, this presenta- tion will be limited to a discussion of our best intelligence assessment of the Soviet guided missile program. The data for this briefing are based on our most recent community estimates, BACKGROUND 2. Although the USSR had no known guided missile provasi at the close of World War II, we have conclusive evidence of a great postwar Soviet * The Assistant Director, Federal Bureau of Investigation, abstains, the subject being outside his jurisdiction. Approved For Release 2000/04/1V!PCR*R1-00549 i% 2100144 Copy r.3o1 45 Page rof 8 Approved For Release 2000/04/19MIN61-00549R000100210014-7 interest in guided missiles, many strong indications of a large and active ? research and development program, and firm evidence of the present opera- tional deployment or a surface-to-air missile defense system around Moscow. Unfortunately, the very effective security surrounding the entire Soviet military complex, and particularly around sensitive areas such as their guided missile program, hampers our gathering of intelligence. This is especially true on the details of specific guided missile systems. There- fore, IA order to estimate these specific Soviet misoile capabilities in a field where positive intelligence is not always available, we are forced to develop our estimates from: (a) all available evidence of Soviet miesile activity including their exploitation of the German missile experience and personnel; (b) general knowledge of the "state-of-the-art" in the guided missile field in the US; and (c) known and estimated Soviet capabilities in related fields. Our estimates of the intended scoRe. of the Soviet program? ee contrasted to 221e_hilities? are based largely on probable Soviet military re?quirements for missiles in relation to other military weapons gystems. 3. Let me enlarge Gomel/bat upon what is meant by "available evidence of Soviet missile activity". Immediately after World War II, the Soviets initiated a thorough and systematic exploitation of Gerean guided miseilos and missile personalities, facilitieo, and equipment. From this exploita- tLee, me believe the Soviets obtained four general. results; (a) the acqeisition of overational and prototype missiles, research and production facilities and equipment, and approximetely 400 Gorman missile specialists; (b) coopleted studies of German achievements prior to the war's end-1945; (c) the familiarization of Soviet personnel with German techniques of research, development, testing, and production of missiles and components; Approved For Release 2000/04PRCYCW-Rbrkl-00549R4001 413142/ Copy of 45 Page 2R: 8 ? Approved For Release 2000/04/11 : CIA-RDP61-00549R000100210014-7 TOP SECRET and (d) fUrther technical studies and limited hardware development per by Clorman scientists. 4. moot of the German missile scientisto and technicians taken to the USSR have been returned to Germany. We have been, and are continuing to, thoroughly and systematically exploit these valuable sources of technieal 'intelligence. Although me cannot accurately assess the degree to which the German miselle contributions have been incorporated in the native Soviet guided missile program, we believe that by 1948 the' USSR'had raised the level of its guided mitsile knowledge to that which existed in German?' at the close of World War 11. We therefore estimate that a concerted and continuous native Soviet guided missile research and development program could have begun in 1948. 5. This and valuable information from other of our sources, together with our knowledge of Soviet eapabilities in related fields such as electronics, aerOdynamics? prepulsion, and nuclear energy, are used in our assessment of Soviet guided missile capabilities and probable programs. 6. The dates given in this briefing are the ear/iest probable years during which one or more missiles could have been serially produced and ,,].aced in the hands of trained pereonnel of one operational unit, thus constituting a limited capability or operational employment. It should be noted that an additional yeriod of time, varying from a few months to several years depending upon the missile system, mould be required before we aro faced with a signifioant threat in terms of actual employment in a general mar. Our current estimate is baeed on the judgement that the USSF does not now intend to initiate general war deliberately nd is not now T8#1159024ina1 B TOP SECRET Copy e23of 45 Approved For Release 2000/04/11: CIA-RDP61-00549M f 0i002130014-7 Approved For Release 2000/04/13,6pINREV-00549R000100210014-7 prepering for general mar as of aey particular future date. Our estimate on which this briefing is based covers the period through 1966, although, or course; estimates as to future years are subject to revision as new intelligence becomes available. SOVIMO GUILfreACSSILE. CAPApILI7.226 GEBERAL CONCLUSIONS 7. We estimate that the Soviet guided missile program is extens(ve and enjoys a very high priority. 8. We believe that the USSR has the native sa entitic resources and capabilities to develop during thiS period advanced types of guided missile systems, in all categories for which it has military requirements. 9. We estimate that the USSR has the industrial base and related induetrial experience to series produce the missile systems it will develoe during this period. However, in view of competing demands, the limited evailability of electronic equipmeat vile sericuAy restrict the exteet and variety of Soviet guided missile proeuction until about 1958. Thereafter, esseandieg electrouics production will probably make this restriction vetch less severe. 10. In consonance with miesions to be accomplishdd, me ectimate that the USSR has requirements for vareous sizes of nuelear, high explosive (HE) aed eheelical (CW) warheads, and has the capability to develop them op time semles consistent with the missilee in which they would be employed. In view ot competing demands, the availability of fiesionable materials via ierose limitations on the extent of Soviet nuclear warhead production between now and 1966. Approved For Release 2000/04/fPF. CMCWEVII61-0054wpmozt7 Copy A3 or 45 Approved For Release 2000/04/11 "CIA-RDP61-00549R000100210014-7 TOP SECRET SPECIFIC NMSSILE CAPABILITIES U. The following dates for specific missile capabilities give the eFlyrob8. in which we estimate the threat agaUtbegin, but, as previously indicated, an additional period of time, varying with missile type, would be required for these missiles to become available in qpantity. 12. Sur:ace-to-Air Missiles. We estimate that surface-to-air missile syatems have one of the highest priorities among current Soviet military programs. At Moscow, an exteneive system of surface-to-air missile sites . haa been constructed, and all sites are probably now operational. This syetem can probably direct a very high rate of fire against multiple targets at maximum altitudes of about 60,000 feet and maxima horizontal ranges of about 25 nautical milers. 13. Luring the period 1958-1961, surface-to-air ystems with increased range and altitude capabilitiea for static defense of critical areas, and with low and high altitude capabilities for defense of static targets, field forces, and naval vesaels, could probably become available for operational emp14ment. Some time between 1963 and 1966, the USSR could probably have in operation a surface-to-air system of some capability against the ICBM. 14. We estimate that series production of surface-to-air guided missiles is mar andergay in the USSR, and that it will probably produce such misailes inlarge ouantities. Nuclear warheads could now be incor- porated into a limited number of Surface-to-air missiles, We estemate that soae percentage of surface-to-air missile's will be so equipped between now and 1966. TS#115902,Final B Co1ryfa3 of 45 ' Page 5 of 8 Approved For Release 2000/04/1'Ptalki3R1-00549R000100210014-7 ? Approved For Release 2000/04/11 : CIA-RDP61-00549R000100210014-7 TOP SECRET 15. Air-to-Air Missiles. Despite a lack of significant intelligence, we estimate that the USSR bas pursued the development of air-to-air missiles, and that it could now have in operationdl use a 2-3 nautical mile range missile capable of tail-cone attacks in good weather. It is probable that the USSR could have a 5 nautical mile all-weather missile operational in 1958 and a 15-20 nautical mile all-weather missile, capable of employing a nuclear warhead in 1960. 16. Air-to-Surface Missilee. In 1955 the USSR could probably have had a 20 nautical mile subsonic air-to-surface missile available for operational use. lb. 1956-1957 a 55 nautical mile subsonic missile could probably be available, and there is some evidence that such a missile has reached at least final flight test stage. A 55 nautical mile supersoeic missile could probably be available in 1958. These missiles, designed primarily as anti-ship weapons, could also be employed against isolated and vell-defined radar targets on land. In 1961) a 100 nautical mile supersonic missile could probably be available for employment by heavy bombers. Each of these missile types could employ nuclear warheads. 16. Surface-to-Surfac2,Ballietic Missiles Terith_u_ to_35.0 Bauticl Idles Pangs. There is considerable evidence of Soviet development of short-range surface-to-surface missiles, and we estimate that the USSR could probably have had available for operational use in 1954 ballistic missiles with the following maximum ranges: 75 nautical miles, 175 200 nautical miles, and 350 nautical miles. These types could be 0%11pp:el with nuclear warheads. However, the USER would probably consider CW warheads desirable for certain specific purposes, and might employ HE in the two shorter-ranee types. Approved For Release 2000/04/1 To.b egg.' -00549 ?sie Page 373k 8 Approved For Release 2000/04/11: CIA-RDP61-00549R000100210014-7 TOP SECRET 18. Surface-to-Surface Ballistic Missiles with 700-1600 Nautical Niles Range. EVidence an Soviet development programs leads us to ectimate that the USSR could probably have bad a 700 nautical mile maximum range ballistic missile for operational use in 1956. We have firm evidence that in 1911.9 the USSR vas interested in a 1600 nautical mile intermediate ranee ballistic missile (MHO and we believe it is a logical step in the Soviet development program. We estimate that the USER is developing an IRBM, and that it could probably have such a missile in operation in 1959. Both these missile types would probably employ, nuclear varheads. We believe the USSR woubi rapidly acquire a considerable Dumber of both the 700 nautical mile and the 1600 nautical mile missiles. 19. Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles with 5500 Nautical Niles Failge? We have no direct evidence that the USSR is developing an ICBM, but ve believe its development has probably been a high priority goal of the Soviet ballistic missile 'program. We estimate that the USSR could peobably have a 5500 nautical mile ICBM ready for operational use in 1960-1961. We believe that tbe USSR will seek to acquire a considerable number of ICBM,r. with nuclear warheads ac rapidly as possible. 20. Submarine-launched Surface-to-Surface Miseiles. We believe the ussa would probably have developed aruise-type miesiles initially; and there is 20110 evidence pointing to the existence or Soviet eubwarineu equipped to carry such miseiles. The USSR could probably have had it operation in 1955 a subsonic turbojet missile capable of a maximum range of 500 nautical miles, and a supersonic ndssile capable of this ramp could TS#115902-Fi3e1 B collya,-3 of k5 Page 7 of 8 Approved For Release 2000/04/1f9e1AWN11-00549R000100210014-7 Approved For Release 2000/04/11: CIA-RDP61-00549R000100210014-7 TOP SECRET probably be in operation in 1957. A supersonic cruise-type missile capable of ragesup to 1000 nautical miles could probably be operational in 1962. These miSsile types mould require nuclear warheads. With a vigorous program, the ussa ndaht achieve an operational sdbnarine-launched 1RBM system sometime during the period 1964-1966. 21. 1411th Satellite Vehicle. The USSR will probably neke a major effort to be the first country to orbit an earth satellite. We believe that the USSR has the capability of orbiting, in 1957, a satellite vehicle which could acquire scientific informal.Lon and data of limited military value. A satellite vehicle possessing sdbstantial reconnaissance capabilities of military value could probably be orbited in the period 1963-1963. Approved For Release 2000/04/1TP:PC1900161-00549WM2A904B7 Copy of 45. Pacra8 nV A TOP SECRET AlgORMStR000100210014-7 Approved For Releas% MA9NfI1th:octiNgDF DOCUMENT DESCRIPTION REGISTRY SOURCE CIA CONTROL NO. DOC. NO. DATE DOCUMENT RECEIVED DOC. DATE COPY NO. 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