VALIDITY STUDY OF NIE 32-5: THE OUTLOOK FOR GREECE, PUBLISHED 18 JANUARY 1955

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP61-00549R000300010007-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: November 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 5, 2000
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: June 27, 1956
• Content Type: STUDY

Approved For Release 2000-TIA-RDP61-00549R000300010007-5
IAC-D-100/ 15
27 June 1956
I N T E L L I G E N C E A D V I S O R Y C O M M I T T E E
Validity Study of NIE 32-55:
The Outlook for Greece,
published 18 January 1955
The attached validity study of NIE 32-55, "The Outlook for
Greece," published 18 January 1955, was noted by the IAC on
26 June 1956 (IAC-M-244,. 26 June 1956, item 6 c).
25X1A
Secretary
Approved For Release 2000/0"Ra~4-RDP61-00549R000300010007-5
 Approved For Release 20001 k 1 A-RDP61-00549R000300010007-5
IAC-D- 100/15
27 June 1956
Validity Study of NIE 32-55:
The Outlook for Greece,
published 18 January 1955
1. The judgments contained in NIE 32-55 were generally sound.
It correctly assessed the nature and importance of the effect which the
death or withdrawal of Prime Minister Papagos would have on the
general political situation. It did not estimate that Papagos' successor
would be -able to reconstitute a conservative grouping along the lines
of the Greek Rally and win new elections. In this connection the
estimate did not sufficiently take into account the role which the Palace
and the army can play in the final outcome of a Greek election. The
estimate's judgments on economic and military developments remain
generally valid.
2. The only major shortcoming of the estimate was its failure
to anticipate how far the Cyprus situation would deteriorate during
the estimative period. This was reflected in an incorrect prediction
that British influence in Greece would remain substantial and in a
failure to foresee the sharp rise in Greek-Turkish tension which has
taken place, together with the added internal political instability and
the increased strains in Greece's relations with the US and NATO
resulting therefrom.
Approved For Release 2000/SL1M: )A-RDP61-00549R000300010007-5