VALIDITY STUDY OF NIE 63-56: PROBABLE DEVELOPMENTS IN NORTH AND SOUTH VIETNAM THROUGH MID-1957, PUBLISHED 17 JULY 1956

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP61-00549R000300020014-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 13, 1999
• Sequence Number: 14
• Publication Date: May 17, 1957
• Content Type: STUDY

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IAC-D-100/37
1,7 May 1957
INTELLIGENCE ADVISORY COMMITTEE
Validity Study of NIE 63-56:
Probable Developments in North and South Vietnam
Th-rough Mid-1957,
published 17 July 1956
The attached validity study of NIE 63-56, "Probable Develop-
ments in North and South Vietnam, published 17 July 1956, was
noted by the IAC on 14 May 1957 (IAC-M-289, item 6 c).
25X1A
Secretary
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 Sanitized - Approved For 09C- IIA-RDP61-00549R000300020014-6
IAC-D-100/37
17 May 1957
Validity Study of NIE 63-56:
Probable Developments in North and South Vietnam
Through Mid-1957,
published 17 July 1956
The conclusions of NIE 63-56, dated 17 July 1956, have been
generally borne out by events with the following exceptions:
a. The progress in establishing an adequate
administrative and control apparatus was overstated.
Subsequent DRV criticism has indicated that at the time
the land reform program was initiated the party structure
in many of the rural areas was weak and that many party
members at the time were nationalists rather than hard-
core Communists.
b. The degree of opposition and passive resist-
ance was understated and no allowance was made for
the eruption of open resistance within North Vietnam.
The conclusion that the regime would remain in firm
control has proven to be correct.
c. Economic progress in 1956 was greater than
estimated, particularly in rice production.
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IA-RDP61-00549R000300020014-6
EIC