SURVEY OF OPERATIONS AND ORGANIZATION OF THE ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT BRANCH, AND PROPOSED CHANGES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP61S00137A000100050022-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 28, 1998
• Sequence Number: 22
• Content Type: REPORT

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Survey of operatioria and Organization of the
Electrical Equipment Branch, and Proposed
Changes
The total activities of the
eyed in order to determine:
a. The major problems which ere likely to be encountered
during the current planning program, and any adjustments which
may be indicated.
b. Any modification of current scheduled reaearch (Branch
Initiated) which would be of direct benefit to the production of
direct support, papers during the remainder of FY 58.
c. Any poseible alterations in Branch operations and
methods which could result in long-term benefits without causing
further major dislocation of current responsibilities.
Eqnipment Branch have beer
2. Dlecpssion
Branch Mie00.n.
The mission an& fun tions of the Ele rical Equipment Bz'ench
are Clear and definite, and, appear to be fully understood by all
Branch personnel.
b. Wartc4,11....e.A Pee,* AnalY0s
do not feel that any relevant comments can be: made at his
Branch WO., The present on boerd strength of seven prorea-
2ionaI n& two elerical Personnel is considered a minimum figura for
acccmUSh1flg the mission of the Branch. Later statements in this.
paper are conditioned to this. figurt. Although intelligence gains
could undoubtedly be expected from the addition of professional
personnel, X. could not justify such an, addition in specific terms at
this time. In entlitative teini the varied abilities (background
sp(cialties) which are found t4111111analyets currently on board
provide an overoallsituation which is considered quite favorable.
There are two comModity specialists (engineers), two economiste with
commodity backgrounds, one analyst with economic and historical
researeh baCkground.and economic defense experience, and two Bloc
area specielists with some economic training.
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c. Internal Branch Structure
The internal structure of the Branch does not appear to be
as functional to its purpose as might be possible. This is partic-
ularly apparent in the manner of apportionment of the Branch research
mission to individual analysts. The total effort appears to be too
fragmented to permit effective cooperation in research between
analysts. I feel that one major reason for this stems from the feet
that in order to meet the need of intelligence maintenance the indi
vidual analysts responsibilities have been quite narrowly defined
on a purely technical basis. Although assurance of continuity is
probably served in this manner,. the resulting structure has apparently
been allowed to dominate the research and reporting effort as well.
Several results appear, on balance, to be detrimental to
the Branch work. One result is that the Branch Intelligence files
have no cohesion or consistency. They are rather a series or indi-
vidual working files. Another result is that the industry fragments
delineated in thia way have more or loss become prerogative areas
and each analyst tends to specialize to a degree that his ability
to handle industryewide problems is hampered. While basic research
papers have been done largely on the specialized segments, the direct
support contributions to Area-wide projects are industry-wide state.
ments. In the past they have largely been tailored to fit the
terms of reference of the particular project, with no necessary
consistency in the underlying method. Beeearch done on each fragment
of the industry later becomes a problem of incorporation of material
into an over-all industry format which has not been formulated in any
rigorous fashion. Following from the above / feel that the quite
respectable amount of basic research which has been completed in the
Branch suffers from a deficiency of aebiguous communication of the
results of the research, particularly in the direct support contri-
butions.
de Current Research Program
The Branch is currently very heavily comnitted to Branch
initiated projects (52 percent of project research time). Several
of these projects are carryovers and extensions from previous years.
The FY 57 carryovers have an additional allowance of 200 hours (5
percent) for completion in the current fiscal year. Their status
is such that this allowance is not sufficient. In all, there are
seven Branch initiated projects which are either overdue at this
time or due shortly and in a state of completion which will make
it impossible to meet all scheduled due dates. An attempt to meet
current schedules would result in a lees than satisfactory quality
of production and would have a harmful effect on the direct support
Program.
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In the preparatiou of the proposed nee schedule of project
research, I was governed by the opinion that the best course of
action would be to fulfill the direct support program to the fullest,
and to make any readjustments in the remaining committmente in such
*manner that they will, 1) be of maximum assistance to the direct
support preparation, end. 2) be instrusental in indieating gaPe and
deficienciee as a basis for future planning. Consistent with my
feeling that the direct support research needs the most attention
in the short run, and that In the longer ruu the Basic research will
be most fruitful to the extent that it is cordueted in &more care-
fully formulated frame of reference, the criterie outlined below
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were followed in making adjustments in the current program.
(1) No alterations may be made in the scheduled direct
support projects.
(2) An, attempt must be made to remain as close OA
possible to current schedules on those Branch projects
which are of most direct relevanee to direct support
projects.
(3) Those Branch projects which are industry-wide in
scope, and hence of most value in developmeut of Branch
capabilitiee in teausfork research, are placed next in
priority.
(4) All neceesarY eliPesee of researoh ehould be
ncentrated in the areas in which the research is most
fragmentary to the overeell problem.
4 SVC)E51415,
a. PromP11,41146.1441.
Although it is not considered. & critical point in thie dis-
cussion, I feel that oee alternative ehoule be noted. which woull
permit a tore direct Branch focus of atteution on the critical
electronics equipment industry. The Electrical Eqeipment Branch
was established at a time whee the electric power eqaipment and
electronic equipment industries were probably more closely related
than is the close at the preeent. The sharp increaaes in complexity
and sccpe of electronies technology has now caused this industry
to be considered geeeraly apart from the electric power equipment
industry as an iatelligence target. NO significant corollary gains
epeer to result from the study of the two industries together. It
is therefore pointed out that some gains may be Obtained if the
responsfbility for electric power equipment were included in the
more closely related study of the mechine buildins complex.
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b. Brendle Resources . Analyses
No changes ProPosea at the present. Teo analysts are being
encouraged to register for the caR report writing course when it Is
next given. One analyst is expect to register for the statistics
course.
c. eneeeeel Drench Structure
it is planned to reorganize the internal structure of the
Branch along lines which will discourage an extreme degree of speciali-
zation of individual analysts, and which will make necessary frequent
opportunities for each analyst to act as a project leader for broad
scope Branch projects or contributions. With this in mind the Branch
mission has been divided into three-sub-categories which are distri-
buted to groups of individual analysts, rather than to individuels.
Continuing intelligence responsibilities for research and
reporting are divided into three categories. The first category,
electronic components, is handled independently because of its
different economic structure, and because the output or the components
sector becomes an important index of total production. Electronic
equipment is divided into two major categories, equipment for
military end-use, and equipment for industrial and consumer end use.
For purpose? of intelligence maintenance the commodity
responsibilities are distributed (by Industrial Classification Code
Designators) in a. "manner as consistent as possible with the intellie
genes production responsibilities, but there is no necessary relation-
ship between intelligence maintenance and production within the Branch.
This manner of organization of research is expected to create
a much greater flexibility within the Branch, and reduce the effects
of absences of individual analysts. Some overlapping of areas of
research will be created, but unnecessary duplication can be avoidee
through interni Planning. Each analyst will be expected to be
familiar with the principal problems, methods, and eetimatee of the
entire Branch.
While the assignment of Branch, work is divided into three
groups of eeelysts, it is not believed that this divizion should be
formalized into Sections, because this would imply a degree of dele-
gation of authority and responsibility not warrantee by the numbers
of personnel involved. The need may arise as times to make work
assignments not in all ways consistent with the organizational
breakdown above. The Branch Chief will retain the authority to make
any adjustment of assignments as might become neceseary to meet
current requirements plated on the Branch.
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A definite need exists to adjust the present Branch intellie
genee files. This meet be done on a gradual basis in order to spread
the time consumption over a reasonable period. An incidental gain
in space will probably result, since it is the feeling of Branch analysts
that there is material now in our files which could be discarded or
eetirel to the records center.
d. General Comments on Branch Research Problems
The previous discussion has been directed primarily to a few
specific and immediate problems of Branch activity. A more general
feeling of the intelligence research problem, on the electronic induetry
is set forth below. These thoughts are not meant to be in any way
exhaustive, but rather they attempt to formulate preliminary guide-
lines for ecrutiny of Breech methods, the planning and organization
of research, writing requirements, and reviewing completed work.
Some value may be obtained from an initial statement of industry
characteristics which ten& to influence the use of various types
of primary data and methods.
Several features of the electronics industry can be singled out as
relevant characteristics which in some sense influence the organization
and preparation of research. The electronics product line includes a
-wide variety of items considered critical in almost activiteeseof
target nations. The industry structuxe, which is complex, vital,
extensive, rapidly changing in form, content, and impact, and charac-
terized by a high degree of convertebilitee is an intelligence problem
which requires great skill in research and analysis. This problem
is further complicated by the high degree of security maintained
over ipportant segments of electronic production, and by the diffueio
of the production through several economic and military industrial
ministries.
In the production and maintenance of intelligence covering
the electronics field the essential elements of information wIll
undergo almost constant change. Methodological approaches may also
require revision as the industry develops and grows, as well as when
different types of source material becomes available. Even the types
of _answers required from intelligence will vary with the changing
impact exerted, by the industry on the capabilities ane vulnerabilities
of the target countries.
The above mentioned problems are purposefuely overstated to
a degree, but they are Illustrative of the areas in which caution
meet be exercised in drawing up an industry model for analytical
purposes, particularly in the field. of predietioes. On. the more
positive side there appear to be several avenues of approach which
are particularly useful if formulated into one composite, internally
consistent approach.
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