REVIEW OF ACTIVITIES AND ACCOMPLISHMENTS DURING FISCAL YEAR 1957

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP61S00527A000200020002-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: November 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 10, 1998
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: December 31, 1957
• Content Type: REPORT

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SUBCONMITTEE ON VIANSPORTIOICII
tae
SCOACATC RMILIGEltICE C CNIMITEM
*ORIS
Review of Activities aurl Diwirse..al Year 1251
A. Activities of tte TSC22EN_17.12.2a1 Yea:x.12a
1. Review of the Intelli nee Product
No -formal pro647am bas been established to revi the adequamy of the
iwansportation intellivnee prodmt. However, tIle joiat researdh amtivitles
of the Transportation Capabilities Estimating Qrv.Ap. and TSC review of Inter-
agency resear& pTojetts hwe been betefieial in assvring adequate production
efforts on suah sUbjects as agmet basin transportation statisttes, and the
dewlopment of speeifie research teshniqUes tor wife= methodologies for
determining rail, port) itaarij. watexway? and highway ctapp.bilities. It has
been agreed that, the SAbeommitti?e aa Teaasportaticm (TSC) will review reports
prepared by the Transportation Capabilities Estimatips Group vhiah are pertin-
ent to the mission of the Economic intelligence Cr4re,ttt-,e. (EIC), and that such
reports will be published as BIC reports
2. Research and Collection Defielennies
a. Research Deficiencies
???12.101.04.....MMP
Da142g Fiscal Year l97 the -Arm' confirmed its work in preparatiat
of ITiority research and collzction deficiencies on the Euro'
an Satellites.
The, Secretariat. con4uazi its review of the Air Force paper on
rewarch abd !?olloction defielers for civil airy and this draft was cirem.
lated to the TSC getbsrahtp for review and comment..
Details on progress and planss for thot ""esollation of priority research
deficiezeics are promented in Annex A to this report.
25X1Y1 b. Collectior Deficiencies
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Aso - III I fiiIIITI1, AIII III III
Members of the TSC discuseed the IAC post-morten on N1Z 13-56 and
reviewed. their outstanding requirements and planned research programs to
determine the extent VJ -Allah they would resolve existing deficiencies.
3. Review of Sabsta4STLNELII
The only substantive paper reviewed by the TSC during Flaeal Year 1957
was the first draft of a revised paper, Capability of the Trans-Siberian Railroad
and Connecting Lines in Manchuria and Worth Korea. This paper is now with the
Transportation Capabilities Estimating Group for resolution of difference among
member aapncies of the TSC.
The TSC membership continued its elose liaison and coordination of
researellwograms, particularly those projects concerned with the annual
estimate on Chines* Communist capabilities, and. the transport section of
RIC.R1-S6, "Communist China,s 1956 Trade and the Transport Involved."
h. Review of Rxternal Research Proposals.
The TSC reviewed and prepared comments on an Air Pores external research
proposal, "reVelopment of Space, Time and Movement Factors for an Economic-
Military Model."
Maintenance. of Agreed Basic statistics
7as TEC made same progress 'in 1957 on the resolution of differences
beldby member agencies' on rail transport statistics for Communist China.
?
CIA is continuing its work on the revision of agreed statistics, and
the reeolution of a few remainingdifferenees, on the following countries:
BuISAria. . , , . ? ...
Czechoslovakia . * 0 ? ?
East GernaTV 0 ? ? ? ? ? ? .
Hungary.. ? . . . . . . ?
Poland . . . ? ? ? . ? ?
RUmunia .. . . . ?
- Rail Traneportatiaa
. Rail Transportation
. Rail and Highway Transportation
. Rail and Highway Transportation
. Rail and Highway Transportation
. Rail Transportation
Proetstindertakenet the Regnant of the BIC or to t
The following projects were undertaken at tbe request of the RIC:
a. RIC 8 WSEG Research on, this project, continued in Fiscal Year
.95 , is still ineomplete, except for the rail trausmtatiort
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sectioa. The sections on the remainiag forms of transport and
requirements of the econoey eill be Undertaken by the Transporta-
tion Capabilities Estimates Group epon completion of the revision
or RV R9810
b. Revision of RIC I9G1. This projects "Capability of the Trans-
Conmmethes Lines In Manchuria and North
&real" has been completedin first draft. A final draft
should, be empleted eithin a veey abort time.
25X1X7
e. 21L11.1/. The TSC diseussed the current estimates in this projects
IrChingie-Ccmatunist Capabilities and Probable Course of Action."
These di/3=881ms contribute& to the preparation of an estimate
by the /AC representatives on this subject.
d. RIC R16. The TSC is new engaged in the coordinatime of a part
of the overland. transport section of this animal project,
"Communist China's 1956 Teade and the Transport Involved."
e han PA ra. The TSC approved almeer eeeparel'hythe HiShteY
Capacity Working Group an "Meabanee Visits with the USSR and Poland
in the Field of Highway Transportation.
A Working Group was also established to ccesider a sleiler exehange
In the field of civil aviatioas and the TEC approva a paper
paepared by this group.
7. Int,2114e2pe Sesearek212EtTel
VeMbers of the TSC have engaged in continuous discussion of research
teehniques to be used. in preparation of the reports listed above. The four
transport capability methodology waking groeps also =Aimed their work
during the year.
The inland Waterway Group amp:lifted its draftfilinthodology for Computing
Malan& Waterwey Capabilities. This draft was secepee& by the TSC and will be
tested ty TSC members. The paper has also been sent to VS industry for testing
and element.
Apreliminary draft of a paper on "Methodology for Computing Port
Capacity," bleed an tbe factor methods has been empleted by the Pert Capacity
WoeVeng Groep: an& Is now being revieved.
The TEC also diseemsed Tram time to time the general outline of the
"Methodology
for Compakemg Highway Capacity, " which is being eseeeetel by the
Bighwey earl:lee Grow.
Werk is eontiauine on a "Methodology te:,r CeelprIttira Rail INeetitr,"
3
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imit4t~Piplima
8. Coordinatiali runetionse of the TX
Mem aetiona are 'typified by the activities discussed wider items
6 and 7.
9. Wale/at/am of the Bole of the SUbeommittee
a. Realization of the SUbcoemittee's Potential
Dewing Fiscal Year 2957 the TSC has made some progress in fulfilling
its responaibility for the coordination of transportation intelligence produced
by the US intelligence community. The assignments gime to the Transportation
Capahd.Utite;Fedimating Group reflect an awareness of those areas in 'which the
need for agreed letalligence estimates is aeute. Publieation of the product of
this Estimating Group by the EIC should gradually narrow those areas in 'which
the divergent views and approaches of the masters of the TSC have heretofore
precluhatengible accomplishment in the execution of Tee responsibilities.
The consideratae progress node by the working grows on Itii0emy?
inland waterway? port, and rail eapacity should be beneficial to realisation
of TSC potential. The completion of agreed methodologies will reduce Marked17,
and help to eliminate, differences is final intelligence estimates made by
ambers of the TSC.
b. Ioed Efficient Fisetion_imtF of
The coordination activities of the Tee did not achieve the degree
of emcees hoped for by the establishment of the 2cansportation Capabilities
Estimating Group. The failure of this group to reach agreement on its first
assignment, the revisioa of B961, has prevented advancing to other priority
problems assigned to the grouP. The time and research expenditures involved
in the functioniag of this grow have been extremely costly. It now appears
that the resclution of maw basic differenees among TSC members can be effected
only by the active participation in the estimating group of TSC officials at
a higher lave/ them those assigns& to it in the past year.
Another prdhles in successful impienentation of the coordination
fenction is the eontimmed independent research activities carried on by TSC
members. The Stfoconseittee should attempt to exercise a more positive influence
upon the directien and scope of those indepoident researchael4vities? both
to avoiddaglicatiom of (Mart and to offset ammo emnomic and concerted
attack on con problems. In this context the independent researeh programs
of each We member should be presented to the Subconmittee at same point in
the progran planning process vim= they can be reviewed as the total effort
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of the entive transportation intelligenee community. The Sebcommittee, at this
point, should attaept to provide constructive eomment ae,i guidance in order to
effect a more rational approach to the numerous end eogaszpretaams and programs
undertaken by member cmgeeitations of the TSC.
SuCh comment and guidanee feom the Stbconeittes could also be used
by each =member in the execution of those programs assigned to it by higher
aefehority and whose teems at reference it does not control.
3. Future Frci,I.o_f_ the Subeonstittee
1. The Smbcommittee will contInue to review foreign economic intelligence
in the fiele of transportation and to identify priority deficiencies in the
intelligerte oomeetence of the US Government. The Subcommittee will eontieue
its work on the preparatica of the felloving reeeareh and eollectien deficiencies:
USSR Collectiten
1. Meretuant Shippd.ng
UM Research
1. liereiont Wail*
CMS= CHINA Colleetien
1. Merchant Shipping
2. rugaways
3. "aura w?atterwwis
moan= =EA Research
1. Merchant Skipping
=ROMAN SAMIZTES Research and Collection
1. Railroads
2. Elgtereys
3. Inland Waterways
4. Merehert Shipping
2 bcamittee will. eontinue Its program for the completion of
egreed baalc statistirs in a:n=1mm with rar,D-Tr, Sestember 1954.
3. The Subaommittee will eontinue its remaining werk on the produetion
of aereed methodelogies for determlnieg the capacity of rail and highway gyetems.
4. The subconcettee All continue to melee the activities of the Transportae
tion Cevabilities Netimating Crow) and attimpt to find veers to mmhe this a more
effective working group for the eltalnation of priority research deficiencies.
5
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5. 2he Subcommittee will attempt to improve procedures tor the coordina.
tion of independent research progress; carried on by its members, and to consider
proposals for external research within the provisions of WM 15/1.
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ANN...4. A
.AD
ON
Gaps in Intelliesme
e, Quantitiative estimate of total
traffic flows on strategic and
economically important railroad
lines.
1. USSR
2. Mina.
s in ..1957 and Plans
T. a.
*Tn. illwaw?Orfo......1????????041
.J.,, CtAiRR 82, "The Volume a iatr or Traffic on
the Trans-Siberian Railroad in 1953," removes the
gay for thin line.
CIA PR-152, "Pattern of Coal Tatf tn the
USSR in 1953," partially removes this gap;
CIA/RR 89, "Growth of Transportation in the USSR
1948.1956 and Prospects Through 1961," partially
liminates this gap.
CIA Project, Proposal 2O1768, "Regional Civil Con-
sugption of Petroleum in the USSR," will provide
Important data for fUrther mnrk on this deficiency.
CIA Project Proposal 43.1957, "Development of Trans-
portation In USSR Centxai Asia," will provide data
for this deficiency.
2. RIC RI Si, "Communist China's Trade and Transporta-
tion," provided data to eliminate this deficiency,
VIA/RR 72, 'Railroad Transportatim in Communist
China 19504954," partiall,y eliminates this -gap.
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I. RAILROAD ISARSPORTATION
Gaps in Intelligence
I. b. Capaeity of USSR Railroad lines
ani trams-loading facilities
leading to border areas.
I. c. Line capacities (including the physical
details of the lines, fhailities and
structures connected therewith) of .the
most strategically and eecuomically
important lines in Communist China.
I. d. amber, type, and capability of the
motive power and rolling stock, including
the inventory and utilization, service-
ability, age, and retirement.
1. USSR
2. China
Progress in yr 1957 end Plane
CIA.Projeet 1'3.1601, m.?.welopment of the Transporta.
ticn Sector in the Chinese c=ra\slictlemmogy" (in
ei.ttalprix.asa) -4/11 also help to elleinate this gap.
I. b. Completion of the revision of BIC El 89 by the Trans.
portation Cspenilities Estimating Group (final ereft
now being prepared) ,:=111 help to remove this
deficiency.
Upon completion of the R9 revision, the Transportation
Capabilities Estimating Group mill undertake eompletion
of the WSEG study - EIC-P-8? "Soviet Bloc Military
Transportation Capabilities to Lames and support
Campaigns into the Area betWeee the Baltic Sea and
the Alps."
ATSC Working Group Is eontinuing its preparation of
a "Methodology for Computing Rail Capecity"whieh
will be helpful in further work on the removal of
this deflate/ley.
I. e. CIA Project 43.1601, "Developeent of the Transporta-
tion Sector in the Chinese Communist Economy" (in
editorial process), will provide date for this
deficiency.
I. d. 1. CIA/RR 89, "Growth of Transportation in the USSR,
194864.956?" provides same data on this deficiency.
CIA Project 43.1957, "Development of Transporta-
tion in USSR Central Asia," will provide data on
this deficiency
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I. RAILROAD TRANSPORTATION
Ceps in Inteltammee
Progress in FY 3.957 ana Plans
I. e. Precise location and oapabilities
of USSR railroad yards, servicing
and epair facilities and storage ?
depots.
I. f. Analysis of planned development of
Communist Chinese railroads with
emphasis on planned rates of growth,
measured bath in planned traffic
increases and in expansion of lines
and line facilities.
CIA Project 43.1605, "The Impact of Long Range Flans
for Electrifioation wad Diese/isaticn of Railroad-s
In the USSR" (in editorial review), will provide
data on this deficiency. E/C E9 S1 1411 provide
data to eliminate part of this deficiency.
14. 2. CIA krojeot 43.1601 "Emvelopment of the Transporta-
tion Sector of the Chinese Communist Economy" (in
editorial review), will provide data on this deficiene
CIA Planning Project 43.1956, "Determination of the
Trangportation Contribution to National Income of
Communist China, 1950-1957," will deal partly with
this deficienny.
I. e. The TSC working Group paper on"Nethodology for
Computing Rail Capacity" will provide some data on
this defielemey.
Airjbree maintains a running file of such items,
pnblishable upon request, and Is also working on
target information sheets which will remove- some of
ilhene deficiereles.
EIC R9 Si millre07410 ta elimInete part Of
this deficiency.
I. f. CIA Project 43.1601, "Develvpment of the Transportation
Sector of the Communist Chinese Economy," will
eliminate most of these deficiencies.
CIA Planning Project 47.1581, "Railroad Construction
in Communist China," will eliminate most of the
deficiencies concerned with line expansion and new
line construction.
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II, INLAND WATERWAYS TRANSP0RTATION
AN= A
Geps
in Intelligence
Prowess In FY 1957 and Pima*
rio a= Quantitative estimates of total
traffie flow OR individual stra-
tegically and eccnomically important
eaterways.
1. USSR
2. China
XI. b. More precise estimates the inventery,
type end capabilities of the inland
waterway fleet.
1. 'USSR
2. China
.1.1.01??????60
II. a. 1. EIC R1 S61 "Communist Cbina's Teed* and Tramxportation,"
uell provide data on this deficienty.
CIA Plageing Prujeet 20.1768, "Regional Civil Co
sign of Petroleum In the USSR," -will provide seme
data for use in elimteating this defieieney.
CIA PlannitigPrejeet, 43.1957, "Development cf Trane-
portation in Soviet Central Asia," eill provide some
data for this deficiercy.
CIA/RR P1-152, "Pattern of Coal Traffic in the USSR
in 1953," partially eliminates this gap.
CIA! aonpUbliehed ennlysis of the "RSIMI Rhedbock,"
partially eliminated this p.
2. CIA Projeet 43.1601, 'Vim Development of the
Transportation Seetor in the Chinese Communist
Aecemomy" (in editorial review)0bas some data oa
this deficieney.
IX 15 1., CIA verklele fi1es contein enftP umeet1ieleted daea
on vessels eomprisimg 30 to 4o percent of tetal
inventor)'.
2. No progreos.
The work af the TSC Working Group an "Methodology
Tor Competie5 Telen0 Wterwey CapeegAy" tUerevids
reor:tax612. :gccia for week on these defie1eneies
beth the USSR and Communist Cblea.
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II. INLAND WATSRW.AYS TRANSPaiTATION
Gaps in Intelliamee
Progress in FY 1957 and Plans
MOTO precise estimates of the
facilities and capacities of the USSR
inlaid waterway fleet.
II. d. More precise estimated on hydrograPhy,
facilities asa capacities of the
itiThi vaterway routes La Communiat
China.
IL e,i C/A Planning Proje?t? 43.1957, "Developmtst of
Transportation in Soviet Central Asia," will
contain EXIMO data on this deficiency.
Work of the TSC Work aIg Group on "Methodology
for Computing Inland Waterway Capacity" will
provide reeeardh tools for vork on these
deficiencies La both the USSR and Communist
China.
II. do CIA Project 43.1601, "The Development of the
Transportation Sector of the Chinese Commuaist
Recnomy " (la editorial review), has some data
on this deficien4Y.
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III. RIGRWAY TRANSPORTATION
Amax A
Gaps in Into
Progress in IT 1957 and Plans
III. a. Better estimates of the number and
eapebility of the motor vehicle
inventory.
1. USSR
2. China
III. b. More precis* estimates of the cepa
-
city of UM highways leading to
border areas or connecting with
*portant railroad or inland. water-
ways tennouishipping paints.
III. 0. Netlmates of the capacity of seleeted
biehway routes in Communist China.
III. a. 1. Methodologleal aspects of this problem are being
considered by a TSC working grouv. Considerable
work needs to be done on this problem.
CIA/RR89, "Growth of Transportation in the USSR,
1948-1956, and Prospects Through 1961," partially
eliminates this gap.
2. Some data on this deficiency were presented in
CIA's contribution to NIB 13-57, and are contained
in CIA Project 43.1601, "The Development of the
Transportation Sector in the Chinese Communist
leonow," in editorial review.
III. b. Righways leading to the border areas in the Par
east are !leder review in RIC RA 26.
Any waft an the MIS program contributes to the
elimination of these deficiencies.
CIA Planning Project 43.1957, IDevelopment of
Transportation in Central Asia," may provide sone
data on this deficiency.
III. c. Border routes were reviewed for EICR1 24, 00 and
86.
Army work on the B/8 program provides some data for
this deficiency, as do several maps prepared by
Army giving capacity estimates of selected highways.
miloPPIONNIRMI"
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