CURRENT SUPPORT MEMORANDUM 'LEAP FORWARD' IN RAILROAD CONSTRUCTION DURING CHINA'S SECOND FIVE-YEAR PLAN (1958-1962)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP61S00527A000200120015-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 21, 2005
• Sequence Number: 15
• Publication Date: August 26, 1958
• Content Type: REPORT

Approvecllf~or Release 2005/04/21 : CIA-RDP61SO0627A000200120015-7 ch p /,S
CSM No. 602
Copy No. '73
26 August 1958
CURRENT SUPPORT MEMORANDUM
"LEAP FORWARD" IN RAILROAD CONSTRUCTION DURING CHINA'S
SECOND FIVE-YEAR PLAN (1958-1962)
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
This report represents the immediate views of the
originating intelligence components of the Office
of Research and Reports. Comments are solicited.
This document contains information affecting the national defense of
the United States, within the meaning of the espionage laws, Title 18
USC, Sections 793 and 794, the transmission or revelation of which
in any manner to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
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"LEAP FORWARD" IN RAILROAD CONSTRUCTION DURING CHINA'S
Current activity in new railroad construction in Communist
China indicates that both the original 1958 and Second Five-Year
Plan (1958-1962) goals for new line will be overfulfilled con-
siderably. The.original 1958 plan scheduled a capital investment of
1.52 billion yuan for railroads and seta goal of 1,290 km of new
lines to be constructed during the year, both well under the totals
in these categories in 1956. 1/ By mid-1958, 640 km of new lines
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Construction of New Railroads in Communist China 96
Existing railroad network
New lines under construction, August 1958
??????^?^? New lines projected to start construction by end of 1960
1961 Announced or estimated completion date
had been constructed. 2/ On the basis of past performance--in 1956
only 500 km of the years total of 1,747 km were completed by mid-v
year 3/ -China should lay between 1,500 and 2,000 km of new track
in 1938.
The original version of the Second Five-Year Plan called for
the completion of 8,000-9,000 km of new line, roughly twice the a-
mount planned in the First Five-Year Plan. 4/ The acceleration of
current construction--exemplified by completion of the Paotou-
Lanchou line, expanded 1958 tracklaying goals for the Trans-Sinkiang
and Neichiang-Kunming lines, the start of construction on the 3,000-
km Fukien-Yunnan and the 1,400 km Chengtu-Pukou lines--and the pro-
jection of an additional 5,000 km of new lines suggest that;:con- _
siderable overfulfiliment of the original tracklaying goal in the
26 August 1958 CURRENT SUPPORT MEMORANDUM 602 Page 2
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Second Five-Year Plan is in prospect. In March 1958 the Ministry of
Railroads stated that 10,000 km of new lines would be constructed dur-
ing the period, and that the construction cost per km would be lowered
from 566,000 Yuan to 400,000 yuan. 5/ Supporting this sharply boosted
goal was a July 1958 announcement by the Railroad Engineering Corps
of the People's Liberation Army that it would lay 10,000 km of track
in the Second Five-Year Plan, or double its previous goal. 6/ If the
corps is used, as in the past, on exclusively mainline construction,
and if it builds 40 percent of all new lines as it did in the First
Five-Year Plan, then a total of 25,000 km (roughly three times the
original Plan) of new line will be built during the next five years.
This figure is obviously too high and suggests either that the corps
will do less than its programmed 10,000 km of new lines or that the
corps will perform well over 40 percent of total new lines construction
(thus diminishing the role of ministerial construction cadres in the
field), or both. It is believed that some 15,000 to 20,000 km of new
line will be constructed during the Second Five-Year Plan.
The orientation of present and projected new line is as signi-
ficant as the increased tracklaying goal. Both the increased build-
ing and its orientation are doubtless designed to help effect the
current "giant leap forward" in economic development. Orientation
of new lines has these characteristics:
1. Lateral lines, chiefly east-west, are being con-
structed which will bring a greater measure of mobility
to the existing, predominantly north-south, trunk routes.
2. Cutoff lines are being constructed or are
planned to be constructed to shorten runs on important
routes both in distance and time, by making it possible
for through trains to avoid heavily used junctions such
as Tientsin, Mukden, and Tatung.
3. Lines are under construction which will link
the transport-poor Southwest with the existing railroad
network.
4. Local authorities are being encouraged to con-
struct short, low-capacity railroad branches and spurs
for industrial, mining, forestry, and agricultural use.
26 August 1958 CURRENT SUPPORT MEMORANDUM 602 Page 3
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25X1
Analyst:
Sources:
26 August 1958 CURRENT SUPPORT MEMORANDUM 602
Page 4
25X1A9A
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