CURRENT SUPPORT MEMORANDUM SOVIET HOUSING GOAL FOR 1959-65 OUTLINED

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP61S00527A000200120019-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 21, 2005
• Sequence Number: 19
• Publication Date: June 16, 1958
• Content Type: REPORT

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CSM No. 587 Copy No.
16 June 1958
CURRENT SUPPORT MEMORANDUM
SOVIET HOUSING GOAL FOR 1959-65 OUTLINED
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
This report represents the immediate views of the
originating intelligence components of the Office
of Research and Reports. Comments are solicited.
This document contains information affecting the national defense of
the United States, within the meaning of the espionage laws, Title 18
USC, Sections 793 and 794, the transmission or revelation of which
in any manner to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
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SOVIET HOUSING GOAL FOR 1959-65 OUTLINED
The 1959-65 housing goal in the USSR was outlined by Deputy
Premier and Chairman of the State Committee on Construction V.A.
Kucherenko to a construction trade union congress in a speech which
was published in the 16 May issue of Construction Gazette. Accord-
ing to his speech 424 million square meters to aal space, not living
space, measurement) of state housing, or ten million apartments,
will be built in 1959-65 and five million houses will be built by
private individuals. The state will allocate 323 billion rubles in
capital investment, while housing costs are expected to decrease from
1,486 rubles per square meter of living space in 1957 to 1.173 rubles
in 1965.
Kucherenko's figures show a very high rate of growth in housing
construction but he ignores the significant aspect that the rate of
housing construction will have virtually leveled off in the years
1960-65. Kucherenko compares the goal of 424 million square meters
for 1959-65 with the actual and planned volume of 201 million during
1952-58, an increase of over 100 percent. Such an increase is as
impressive as the planned increase of almost 100 percent in 1956-60
over the volume of state housing in 1951-55. However, when the 1961-
65 period is compared with the preceding five years, it is seen that
the planned increase drops to 46 percent. Put another way, the rate
of state housing construction in 1961-65 would be only slightly
higher than in 1960. During those five years the average yearly
volume would be about 63 million square meters, as compared with 60
million planned in 1960. 1/
There is some indication that the goal announced by Kucherenko
is lower than an earlier goal set by the Soviets. In early 1956
mention was made of a goal for 1961-65 of 400 million square meters, 2/
which may be compared with 313 million in the same period according
to the goal announced by Kucherenko. This suspicion that goals have
been lowered is bolstered by the fact that Khrushchev in his recent
speech at the May 1958 plenum restated the 10-12 year housing program
in terms that were much less forceful than before. 3/
Despite a decline in the rate of increase in housing construc-
tion, the increase in the five-year period 1961-65 in per capita
housing availability will be about 20 percent, the same increase
planned for the 1956,-60 period, By the end of 1965 the Soviets
would attain an estimated average of 7-7.5 square meters of living
space per person, still well below their minimum standard of nine
square meters.
A lack of realism appears once again to prevail in the estab-
lishment of the Soviet housing goal. The investment require of 323
billion rubles was almost certainly calculated on the basis of
1,173 rubles per square meter, the expected average cost of housing
in 1965.* That 1965 cost is over 20 percent lower than the cost
in 1957. Even if the Soviets succeed in lowering housing costs to
this extent, the average costs over the entire period 1959-65 will
be so much higher than 1,173 rubles per square meter that investment
allocations would have to exceed 323 billion rubles by a significant
amount.
* At 1,173 rubles, 323 billion rubles would provide 275.4-million
square meters of living space. This is almost exactly 65 percent
of the 424 outlined million square meters of total space. This per-
centage is a usual Soviet factor for relating living space to total
space.
16 June 1958 CURRENT SUPPORT MEMORANDUM 587 Page 2
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Private housing construction in 1959-65 is to comprise a third,
or possibly even a higher share, of total housing space. Thus,
private housing's share is to be at about the very high level of
34 percent set in the special housing plan for 1956-60. Private
housing in 1951-55 comprised only 26 percent of a much lower total. 4/
16 June 1958 CURRENT SUPPORT MEMORANDUM 587 Page 3
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Analyst:
Coord
Sources:
25X1A9A
16 June 1958 CURRENT SUPPORT MEMORANDUM 587 Page 4
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