SOVIET FOREIGN TRADE IN 1957

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP61S00527A000200120033-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 10, 1998
• Sequence Number: 33
• Publication Date: March 13, 1958
• Content Type: REPORT

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CSM No. 564 Copy No.
13 March 1958
CURRENT SUPPORT MEMORANDUM
SOVIET FOREIGN TRADE IN 1957
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
This report represents the immediate views of the
originating intelligence components of the Office
of Research and Reports. Comments are solicited.
This document contains information affecting the national defense of
the United States, within the meaning of the espionage laws, Title 18
USC, Sections 793 and 794, the transmission or revelation of which
in any manner to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
.
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 Approved For Rele se 2000/08/26 : CIA-RDP61 S00 A000200120033-7
SOVIET FOREIGN TRADE IN 1957
Recent Soviet statements seem to indicate that Soviet trade with
the bloc in 1957 showed little if any increase over 1956 while trade
with the Free World experienced an increase of upward of 55 percent.
The apparent failure to increase foreign trade with the bloc countries
contrasts with the prediction by Pervukhin (then chairman of the de-
funct State Economic Commission for Current Planning)in February 1957
that Soviet trade with the socialist countries was to increase by 13
percent in 1957 an increase of more than $700 million. 1/ Economic
dislocations in the European Satellites resulting from The Polish and
Hungarian events in late 1956 must have played an important part in
the apparent failure by the USSR to implement its bloc trade plans in
1957. The economic reorganization within the USSR was undoubtedly
a contributing factor as well. The decision of the CEMA members in.
1957 to postpone their long-term plans from 1956-1960 to 1959--1965,
seems to indicate that bloc economic specialization and integration
was not proceeding smoothly. It seems likely that foreign trade plans
would also have been affected. The year 1957 thus appeared to be one
of reassessment and readjustment in both the USSR and the satellites.
Soviet sources state that Soviet foreign trade in 1957 amounted
to approximately 33 billion rubles ($8.25 billion). 2/ This compares
with 29.1 billion rubles ($7.275 billion) in 1956, or an increase
of 13 percent. A Soviet announcement also states that "more than
two-thirds" of the Soviet trade in 1957 was carried on with the
bloc.* 2/
This suggests a marked change from all the years between 1950
and 1956 when Soviet trade with the bloc accounted for 7682 percent
of total Soviet trade. If it is assumed that "more than two-thirds"
means about 67 percent, the USSR's trade with the bloc countries
approximated $5.5 billion as against $5.525 billion in 1956, in other
words, little or no increase over 1956. The assumption that "more
than two-thirds" could mean as much as 70 percent ($5.775 million)
does not alter the basic contention that Soviet trade with the bloc
increased very little in 1957.
These Soviet statements, however, are based on preliminary data
and on at least one occasion in the past preliminary Soviet estimates
of its trade with the bloc have understated that. the actual value of
trade for that year. Preliminary estimates made by East Germany,
Czechoslovakia, and Poland of their trade with the USSR indicate in-
creases rather than decreases compared with 1956. Hungary's trade
with the USSR also appears to have increased in 1957. On the other
hand, trade between the USSR and its major bloc trading partner,
China, appears to have been reduced in 1957.
If it is assumed that the Soviet statements are substantially
correct, Soviet trade with the Free World would then account for the
remaining 33 percent, that is, $2.75 billion as against $1.75
billion in 1956--an increase of 55 percent. All or almost all of
the increase in Soviet foreign trade volume may thus be imputed to
increased trade with the Free World.
The following table shows the distribution of Soviet trade be-
tween the bloc and the Free World since 19530
*Yugoslavia is included by the USSR in reporting on trade with
the bloc.
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Sino-Soviet Bloc
Free World
Total
Millions of Percent Millions of ercen Millions of Percent
Current $US of Total Current $US of Total Current $US of Total
1953
4,750
82%
19000
18%
5,750
100%
1954
4,900
78%
1,350
22%
6,250
100%
1955
5,187
79%
1,342
21%
6,529
100%
1956
5,525
76%
1,759
24%
7,282
100%
1957
(est.)
5,500
67%
2,750
33%
8,250
100%
The above table demonstrates that Soviet trade with the Free World
has increased more rapidly over the period 19531957 than Soviet trade
with the bloc. Index numbers based on the above data show these in-
creases even more graphically. Taking 1953 as 100-, trade with the bloc
and the Free World increased as follows:
1954
1955
1956
1957 (est.)
Total
109
114
127
144
Bloc
103
109
116
116
Free World
135
134
176
273
Both tables clearly attest to the success of the avowed Soviet
policy since 1953 of expanding its free world trade.
Based on partial figures, of the $1.billion increase in trade
with the Free World in 1957 over 1956, approximately $300 million can
be imputed to increased trade with the underdeveloped countries (from
about $300 million in 1956 to an estimated $600 million in 1957).
The bulk of this increase was due to expanded trade with Near Eastern
countries. The remaining $700 million therefore relates to increased
trade with Free World industrial countries.
The recent increases in trade with the Free World may indicate a
tendency to return to the prewar traditional trade patterns when the
USSR traded its raw materials to the West in return for semi-
manufactures and manufactured goods.
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Analyst.* Coor.d
Sources*
1. "Report on the State Plan of 1957," Pravda, 6 Feb 57, U
2. "Report on State Plan Fulfillment in 1957," Pravda, 27 Jan
58, p. 3, U
3. State, Moscow. Dsp 356, 10 Jan 58, OFF USE
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