SOVIET FOREIGN TRADE IN 1957

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP61S00527A000200120033-7
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
C
Document Page Count: 
4
Document Creation Date: 
December 9, 2016
Document Release Date: 
July 10, 1998
Sequence Number: 
33
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
March 13, 1958
Content Type: 
REPORT
File: 
AttachmentSize
PDF icon CIA-RDP61S00527A000200120033-7.pdf185.44 KB
Body: 
Approved For Releae 2000/08/26 : CIA-RDP61 S005A000200120033-7 CSM No. 564 Copy No. 13 March 1958 CURRENT SUPPORT MEMORANDUM SOVIET FOREIGN TRADE IN 1957 OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY This report represents the immediate views of the originating intelligence components of the Office of Research and Reports. Comments are solicited. This document contains information affecting the national defense of the United States, within the meaning of the espionage laws, Title 18 USC, Sections 793 and 794, the transmission or revelation of which in any manner to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law. . Approved For Release 2000/08/26 : CIA-RDP61 SO0527A000200120033-7 Approved For Rele se 2000/08/26 : CIA-RDP61 S00 A000200120033-7 SOVIET FOREIGN TRADE IN 1957 Recent Soviet statements seem to indicate that Soviet trade with the bloc in 1957 showed little if any increase over 1956 while trade with the Free World experienced an increase of upward of 55 percent. The apparent failure to increase foreign trade with the bloc countries contrasts with the prediction by Pervukhin (then chairman of the de- funct State Economic Commission for Current Planning)in February 1957 that Soviet trade with the socialist countries was to increase by 13 percent in 1957 an increase of more than $700 million. 1/ Economic dislocations in the European Satellites resulting from The Polish and Hungarian events in late 1956 must have played an important part in the apparent failure by the USSR to implement its bloc trade plans in 1957. The economic reorganization within the USSR was undoubtedly a contributing factor as well. The decision of the CEMA members in. 1957 to postpone their long-term plans from 1956-1960 to 1959--1965, seems to indicate that bloc economic specialization and integration was not proceeding smoothly. It seems likely that foreign trade plans would also have been affected. The year 1957 thus appeared to be one of reassessment and readjustment in both the USSR and the satellites. Soviet sources state that Soviet foreign trade in 1957 amounted to approximately 33 billion rubles ($8.25 billion). 2/ This compares with 29.1 billion rubles ($7.275 billion) in 1956, or an increase of 13 percent. A Soviet announcement also states that "more than two-thirds" of the Soviet trade in 1957 was carried on with the bloc.* 2/ This suggests a marked change from all the years between 1950 and 1956 when Soviet trade with the bloc accounted for 7682 percent of total Soviet trade. If it is assumed that "more than two-thirds" means about 67 percent, the USSR's trade with the bloc countries approximated $5.5 billion as against $5.525 billion in 1956, in other words, little or no increase over 1956. The assumption that "more than two-thirds" could mean as much as 70 percent ($5.775 million) does not alter the basic contention that Soviet trade with the bloc increased very little in 1957. These Soviet statements, however, are based on preliminary data and on at least one occasion in the past preliminary Soviet estimates of its trade with the bloc have understated that. the actual value of trade for that year. Preliminary estimates made by East Germany, Czechoslovakia, and Poland of their trade with the USSR indicate in- creases rather than decreases compared with 1956. Hungary's trade with the USSR also appears to have increased in 1957. On the other hand, trade between the USSR and its major bloc trading partner, China, appears to have been reduced in 1957. If it is assumed that the Soviet statements are substantially correct, Soviet trade with the Free World would then account for the remaining 33 percent, that is, $2.75 billion as against $1.75 billion in 1956--an increase of 55 percent. All or almost all of the increase in Soviet foreign trade volume may thus be imputed to increased trade with the Free World. The following table shows the distribution of Soviet trade be- tween the bloc and the Free World since 19530 *Yugoslavia is included by the USSR in reporting on trade with the bloc. 13 March 1958 CURRENT SUPPORT MEMORANDUM 564 Page 2 Approved For Release 2000/08/26 : CIA-RDP61 SO0527A000200120033-7 Approved For Release 2000/08/26 : CIA-RDP61 S00i2.7A000200120033-7 Sino-Soviet Bloc Free World Total Millions of Percent Millions of ercen Millions of Percent Current $US of Total Current $US of Total Current $US of Total 1953 4,750 82% 19000 18% 5,750 100% 1954 4,900 78% 1,350 22% 6,250 100% 1955 5,187 79% 1,342 21% 6,529 100% 1956 5,525 76% 1,759 24% 7,282 100% 1957 (est.) 5,500 67% 2,750 33% 8,250 100% The above table demonstrates that Soviet trade with the Free World has increased more rapidly over the period 19531957 than Soviet trade with the bloc. Index numbers based on the above data show these in- creases even more graphically. Taking 1953 as 100-, trade with the bloc and the Free World increased as follows: 1954 1955 1956 1957 (est.) Total 109 114 127 144 Bloc 103 109 116 116 Free World 135 134 176 273 Both tables clearly attest to the success of the avowed Soviet policy since 1953 of expanding its free world trade. Based on partial figures, of the $1.billion increase in trade with the Free World in 1957 over 1956, approximately $300 million can be imputed to increased trade with the underdeveloped countries (from about $300 million in 1956 to an estimated $600 million in 1957). The bulk of this increase was due to expanded trade with Near Eastern countries. The remaining $700 million therefore relates to increased trade with Free World industrial countries. The recent increases in trade with the Free World may indicate a tendency to return to the prewar traditional trade patterns when the USSR traded its raw materials to the West in return for semi- manufactures and manufactured goods. 13 March 1958 CURRENT SUPPORT MEMORANDUM 564 Page 3 Approved For Release 2000/08/26 : CIA-RDP61 SO0527A000200120033-7 Approved For Release 2000/08/26 : CIA-RDP61 S00A000200120033-7' 25X1A9a Analyst.* Coor.d Sources* 1. "Report on the State Plan of 1957," Pravda, 6 Feb 57, U 2. "Report on State Plan Fulfillment in 1957," Pravda, 27 Jan 58, p. 3, U 3. State, Moscow. Dsp 356, 10 Jan 58, OFF USE 13 March 1958 CURRENT SUPPORT MEMORANDUM 564 Page 4 25X1A9a Approved For Release 2000/08/26 : CIA-RDP61 SO0527A000200120033-7