LIKELIHOOD OF THE U.S.S.R. DELIBERATELY INITIATING WAR DURING 1952

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP61S00750A000700070130-2
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 11, 2000
• Sequence Number: 130
• Publication Date: September 24, 1951
• Content Type: MF

*ARMY Declass/Release Instructions On File*
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S~?Fi4TE~T: Like?lihncd of the tJ.S.S,R. Delit~e3rately Initiating ;~"ar
.During 1952
1. The Intelligence :9,dvisory Corsmittee has ~rariQUSly eati~~uted
the likeslihood at' mar, indic~.+,ing that in the belief that the Soviet
ob3ective aannat bet obta3~ned without `sYre- involvement in a general
war again$t the 1'[aatern Po~+eers, the Soviet rulers may decide delib-
erately tc~ provoke such a vrar at a mar~ont when, ixt their opinieau,
the strength of the Ss~viest pinion via-a-vis the late+stern Po~rera i:;
at.it~s maximum. It has been eNtimated that such a period exists
nova r~zzd will esxtesnd frnm thc: ~are3se3r.t through 1954, ~,-ith its peak
at about hself-way, i.e., 19fi2.
2. `~~+ are approaohng this critical 13esriod, and recent eYents
unfe;vorable to the U.S.S.R. may cQnfrc+nt its leadt+rs with the ne-
oesseity of reevaluating the Soviet position.
S. It is therei`orea segue:tend that the I,AC prepare an satiraa-tes
of t}ie "Likelihood of th~a U. S. S.R. Aeliberately Initiating Far Uur-
ing 1952.ie ~hes scop6 Qf such an estimate should includes, but nvt
be limited to, then facstors shexs+rt~ in the attached draft, "Propoae9d
Terms cif Awfersnaa, ~ (fiab "d") ?
Incl
Proposed Tertt~s of
Reterence -Tab "A"
(~ti.) .A. R. BOLLT.1
A. k. ati?~L~tG
1~.i or G~ensral. Get
~-~. 0. of 8. s. t~
Approved For Release 2001/08/27 :CIA-RDP61S00750A000700070130-2
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