PRIMARY ENERGY PRODUCTION IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC AND THE FREE WORLD

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP62S00346A000100010002-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 9, 1998
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: February 6, 1956
• Content Type: MF

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6 February 1956
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
THROUGH: Deputy Director/Intelligence
SUBJECT: Primary Energy Production in the Sino-
Soviet Bloc and the Free World
1. This memorandum is in response to your request
for comparative data on the growth of primary energy pro-
duction in the Sino-Soviet bloc and the free world, as
derived principally from solid fuels, petroleum and water
power.
2. During the next five years the Sino-Soviet bloc
plans a higher rate of growth in energy production than
the free world. Bloc energy production in 1955 equaled
about 30 percent of free world production. In 1960 it
will increase to about 40 percent. Despite this relative
increase, however, the absolute gap between energy pro-
duction in the bloc and the free world will not decrease.
In fact the free world's primary energy production will
increase 15,200 trillion Btu while bloc production will
increase only 12,600 trillion Btu. Thus the gap will
grow about 5 percent.
3. Soviet bloc energy production depends primarily
on solid fuels, while over half of free world energy pro-
duction comes from petroleum. As production of petroleum
increases, however, the importance of solid fuels to the
bloc will decline slightly. By 1960, solid fuels are
expected to supply only about 75 percent of total bloc
energy production compared with about 81 percent in 1955..
The USSR is just beginning to utilize natural gas
produced with oil rather than waste it. The Sixth Five-
Year Plan calls for increasing natural gas production
from 8.1 million metric tons in 1955 to 32 million metric
tons in 1960--equivalent to one quarter of crude oil pro-
duction. In contrast, US natural gas production was 200
million metric tons in 1955--equivalent to over half of
crude oil production.
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SUBJECT: Primary Energy Production in the Sino-Soviet
Bloc and the Free World
4. In 1955, hydroelectric-power contributed only
0.5 percent of total Sino-Soviet bloc energy production
and only 2 percent of the free world total. These ratios
will not change significantly by 1960.
5. Electricity produced from nuclear energy will
not affect significantly the world output of primary
energy in 1960. In fact, in 1960 production of fissiona-
ble material for military and "peaceful" purposes will
still use appreciably more electricity than will be
generated by plants powered with nuclear fuel.
The USSR has announced that by 1960 it will have
from 2,000,000 to 2,500,000 kilowatts of generating capaci-
ty in plants powered with nuclear fuel. If completed,
these power plants could supply over 3 percent of total
Soviet electric power output. Announced US plans provide
for generating capacity of only 800,000 kilowatts by 1960
which could supply about 0.5 percent of total US electric
power output forecast-for that year.
6. The USSR, having produced 58 percent of the bloc's
total primary energy output in 1955, will increase this
share to 62 percent in 1960. Conversely, the US share of
the free world's total will drop very slightly and will
amount to about one half of the free world total in 1960.
7. The attached charts present the above data graphi-
cally. The attached table presents detailed data on the
regional growth of primary energy production by principal
categories.
25X1A9a
Assistant Director
Research and Reports
Enclosures:
1. Chart of USSR-US Energy Production
2. Chart of Bloc-Free World Energy Production
3. Table of Primary Energy Production
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Average Average Average Average
Annual Annual Annual Estimated Annual
Production Production Growth Production Growth Production Growth Production Growth
1940 1946 1941-1946 1950 1947-1950 1955 1951-1955 1960 1956-1960
(Btu x (Btu x ercen (Btu x ercen Wu -x TU ercen jHtu x lut2j Tp-er-c-e-nTT
USSR
Solid fuels a/ 5,510 5,080 -1.4 7,770 11.2 10,230 5.7 15,030 8.0
Crude oil, natural gas b/ 1,490 1,100 -4.9 1,880 14.3 3,450 12.9 7,380 16.4
Hydroelectric power c/ - 16 18 2 43 24.3 80 13.2 200 20.2
Total 7,016 b1799 =271 97693 118 13,760 7 T 22,610 TU.4
European Satellites d/
Solid fuels 4,960 3,450 -5.9 4,930 9.3 6,660 6.2 8,750 5.6
Crude oil, natural gas 340 346 0.3 446 6.6 930 15.8 1,160 4.5
Hydroelectric power 4 7 10 7 0 14 14.9 20 7.4
Total 57304 3-803 -T-4 5 _353 97T 776U4 -77T M 51-5
Communist Asia e/
Solid fuels 1,490 560 -15.0 1,220 21.5 2,440 14.9 3,700 8.7
Crude oil, natural gas negligible 4 f/ 4 0 20 38 70 28.5
Hydroelectric power 10 15 7 - 20 7 16 -4 50 25.6
Total 1,300 579 -T4T7 172T4 2IT 2476 T4-.79 TI-82UY .T
Sino-Soviet Bloc
Solid fuels 11,960 9,090 -4.5 13,920 11.2 19,330 6.8 27,480 7.3
Crude oil, natural gas 1,830 1,450 -3.8 2,330 12.6 4,400 13.5 8,610 14.4
Hydroelectric power 30 40 5 70 15 110 9.5 270 19.7
Total TT I 820 10-1580 -T.1 16 0 ITS 23,840 3? 350 8T8
Solid fuels 13,580 15,810 2.6 14,860 -1.5 13,020 -2.6 14,020 1.5
Crude oil, natural gas 11,020 15,080 5.4 19,070 6.0 25,050 5.6 30,400 3.9
Hydroelectric power 210 320 7.3 390 5.1 450 2.9 480 1.3
Total 24,816 31,210 3 9 34,320 _274 38,520 2744,'900 37T
Free world less US
Solid fuels 20,220 15,750 -4.1 19,060 4.9 20,210 1.2 21,350 1.1
Crude oil, natural gas 3,330 5,190 7.7 9,580 16.6 15,490 10.1 22,700 7.9
Hydroelectric power 450 460 0.4 670 9.9 1,060 9.6 1,570 8.2
Total 24-,000 21,400 -~9 297M 2 36,760 4T 45,620 3 T
Free World
Solid fuels 33,800 31,560 -1.1 33,920 1.8 33,230 -0.4 35,370 1.3
Crude oil, natural gas 14,350 20,270 5.9 28,650 9.0 40,540 7.2 53,100 5.5
Hydroelectric power 660 780 2.8 1,060 8.0 1,510 7.3 2,050 6.3
Total 48,810 52,610 T3 63,630 479 75,280 T4 90, 30 3B
Relationships in the Production
OT-Pflm-ary Energy ercen 1940 1946 1950 1955 1960
Sino-Soviet Bloc/Free world .8.3 20.1 25.6 31.7 40.2
USSR/US 28.3 19.9 28.2 35.7 50.4
a. Includes coal, peat, oil shale and rewoo nc u es an a, Bulgaria, zech 8ova a, as ermany, Hungary,
b. including natural gas liquids. Rumania and Poland. Soviet Zone Austria included through 1955.
c. available for transmission from power plant. e. includes Communist China, North Korea, Outer Mongolia and North Vietnam.
f. not computed.
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